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D1 Baseball Predicts Iowa 5th in B1G in 2021. On May 6, 2019 IOWA ranked #24 (was Great Season despite 1-7 Finish). 2020 Season Cut Short by Covid

Still a three-bid league per D1Baseball

D1Baseball's May 30 projection


LAST FIVE IN
60. Liberty
61. Fairfield
62. UC-Santa Barbara
63. North Carolina
64. LSU

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Georgia
66. Ball State
67. Kansas State
68. Alabama
69. San Diego

AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (3)
#4 Bryant

#2 Connecticut
#3 Michigan

=========================

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (5)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Maryland
#3 UC-Santa Barbara

=========================

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (11)
#4 North Dakota State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Duke
 
Still a three-bid league per D1Baseball

D1Baseball's May 30 projection


LAST FIVE IN
60. Liberty
61. Fairfield
62. UC-Santa Barbara
63. North Carolina
64. LSU

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Georgia
66. Ball State
67. Kansas State
68. Alabama
69. San Diego

AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (3)
#4 Bryant

#2 Connecticut
#3 Michigan

=========================

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (5)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Maryland
#3 UC-Santa Barbara

=========================

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (11)
#4 North Dakota State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Duke

I’m honestly waiting to see what the committee does, because it’s pure speculation based on what they think. Normally I’d know they are right, but with the odd scheduling and year due to Covid. It will be interesting to see ultimately how the RPI is weighed. How did they view conference only and conferences. If the conference is a two bid league, even three bid. I hope some coaches speak out.
 
If Iowa wins today, they will be one game behind Michigan in the standings and ahead of Michigan in RPI.

I personally don’t view Iowa as having any chance to get an at-large at this point.

But … Michigan’s waning chances may be dictated by the Iowa/MSU game. If Iowa wins, it will be much more difficult for a committee - which leans heavily on RPI - to invite Michigan whose RPI is lower than Iowa in a conference only play year.
 
What is the lowest RPI to ever get a at large??? Big ten only have 2 teams with a RPI better then 80 Iowa could make it 3 teams but still no one below 70 is getting one imo
 
Still a three-bid league per D1Baseball

D1Baseball's May 30 projection


LAST FIVE IN
60. Liberty
61. Fairfield
62. UC-Santa Barbara
63. North Carolina
64. LSU

FIRST FIVE OUT
65. Georgia
66. Ball State
67. Kansas State
68. Alabama
69. San Diego

AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (3)
#4 Bryant

#2 Connecticut
#3 Michigan

=========================

TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (5)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Maryland
#3 UC-Santa Barbara

=========================

EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (11)
#4 North Dakota State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Duke
D1 still has Michigan in. Iowa or Indiana not mentioned in last teams out.


This is all on Kevin Warren & the "big shots" who decided to:

* Start the season 2 weeks late

* Play only 44 games instead of 56

* Play conference games only

* Not have a conference tournament
 
I’m honestly waiting to see what the committee does, because it’s pure speculation based on what they think. Normally I’d know they are right, but with the odd scheduling and year due to Covid. It will be interesting to see ultimately how the RPI is weighed. How did they view conference only and conferences. If the conference is a two bid league, even three bid. I hope some coaches speak out.
If Iowa wins today, they will be one game behind Michigan in the standings and ahead of Michigan in RPI.

I personally don’t view Iowa as having any chance to get an at-large at this point.

But … Michigan’s waning chances may be dictated by the Iowa/MSU game. If Iowa wins, it will be much more difficult for a committee - which leans heavily on RPI - to invite Michigan whose RPI is lower than Iowa in a conference only play year.
What is the lowest RPI to ever get a at large??? Big ten only have 2 teams with a RPI better then 80 Iowa could make it 3 teams but still no one below 70 is getting one imo
And Michigan is close to 90
For some reasons 54 and 63 stick out as numbers to me.

Michigan & Iowa are very close in the RPI.

And Michigan took 3 out of 4 games vs Iowa.

I think these 2 factors will be used against Iowa IF they take the top 3 teams and leave the 4th place team (Iowa) OUT.

May 30, 2021 RPI

B1G Team Rankings


Current...Yesterday's
Rank........Rank.......................................................................................Record...............ROAD......NEUTRAL...HOME

4242NebraskaBig Ten31-1213-38-410-50-0
5767MarylandBig Ten28-159-73-516-30-0
8389IowaBig Ten25-1810-75-510-60-0
90100MichiganBig Ten27-179-510-48-80-0
9191Ohio St.Big Ten22-194-85-513-60-0
114111IndianaBig Ten25-189-102-214-60-0
131126RutgersBig Ten21-2313-91-17-130-0
145146IllinoisBig Ten22-2211-74-67-90-0
163147Penn St.Big Ten18-246-134-38-80-0
188183NorthwesternBig Ten14-214-106-64-50-0
199206PurdueBig Ten15-258-94-83-80-0
214209Michigan St.Big Ten17-267-95-75-100-0
282281MinnesotaBig Ten5-300-130-15-160-0
 
This is all on Kevin Warren & the "big shots" who decided to:

* Start the season 2 weeks late

* Play only 44 games instead of 56

* Play conference games only

* Not have a conference tournament

Did the B1G’s decision to go conference only play a role in how the committee will perceive the B1G? Probably (based anecdotally upon how the softball pairing selections played out). That written, the notion that the B1G is perceived as a mid-major by the selection committee is hardly a novel concept. And, let’s face it, all other things being equal, Iowa isn’t exactly going to get the benefit of doubt.
 
Did the B1G’s decision to go conference only play a role in how the committee will perceive the B1G? Probably (based anecdotally upon how the softball pairing selections played out). That written, the notion that the B1G is perceived as a mid-major by the selection committee is hardly a novel concept. And, let’s face it, all other things being equal, Iowa isn’t exactly going to get the benefit of doubt.

The days of the big ten being a “mid major” have been over for ten years. Unfortunately the powers that be and “blue bloods” like to push this narrative.
 
Michigan & Iowa are very close in the RPI.

And Michigan took 3 out of 4 games vs Iowa.

I think these 2 factors will be used against Iowa IF they take the top 3 teams and leave the 4th place team (Iowa) OUT.

May 30, 2021 RPI

B1G Team Rankings


Current...Yesterday's
Rank........Rank.......................................................................................Record...............ROAD......NEUTRAL...HOME

4242NebraskaBig Ten31-1213-38-410-50-0
5767MarylandBig Ten28-159-73-516-30-0
8389IowaBig Ten25-1810-75-510-60-0
90100MichiganBig Ten27-179-510-48-80-0
9191Ohio St.Big Ten22-194-85-513-60-0
114111IndianaBig Ten25-189-102-214-60-0
131126RutgersBig Ten21-2313-91-17-130-0
145146IllinoisBig Ten22-2211-74-67-90-0
163147Penn St.Big Ten18-246-134-38-80-0
188183NorthwesternBig Ten14-214-106-64-50-0
199206PurdueBig Ten15-258-94-83-80-0
214209Michigan St.Big Ten17-267-95-75-100-0
282281MinnesotaBig Ten5-300-130-15-160-0

Iowa could conceivably be 5-4 against “quad 1” competition.
 
Maryland chose not to throw Max Dean or he is hurt this weekend? Today is seemingly a bullpen game for them. Surely they wouldn’t give him a weekend off, risky proposition actually.
 
Did the B1G’s decision to go conference only play a role in how the committee will perceive the B1G? Probably (based anecdotally upon how the softball pairing selections played out). That written, the notion that the B1G is perceived as a mid-major by the selection committee is hardly a novel concept. And, let’s face it, all other things being equal, Iowa isn’t exactly going to get the benefit of doubt.

I can't wait to see what the Committee says tomorrow. I truly believe they will say it was hard to evaluate the B1G teams when they did not play teams outside the conference, where the B1G teams could improve their resumes.

I agree that the B1G has not gotten much respect in the past. BUT, this year, Kevin Warren/the people making the decisions did not give B1G teams a chance to prove how good they were by playing out of conference.

And I agree that Iowa going 2-4 against Illinois & Northwestern and then hopefully 3-0 vs Michigan State is not exactly doing anything to move the needle when it comes to perception.

The Michigan Head Softball Coach was very upset & outspoken at the end of the season when only 3 B1G teams were selected and 4th place Iowa was left out. She said playing conference only hurt the B1G and the blame falls on the B1G individuals who made those terrible decisions.

Being and playing outdoors is safe. We all know that. Kevin Warren and the people who made these bone headed, incorrect decisions, for some reason, did not seem to care.
 
I can't wait to see what the Committee says tomorrow. I truly believe they will say it was hard to evaluate the B1G teams when they did not play teams outside the conference, where the B1G teams could improve their resumes.

I agree that the B1G has not gotten much respect in the past. BUT, this year, Kevin Warren/the people making the decisions did not give B1G teams a chance to prove how good they were by playing out of conference.

And I agree that Iowa going 2-4 against Illinois & Northwestern and then hopefully 3-0 vs Michigan State is not exactly doing anything to move the needle when it comes to perception.

The Michigan Head Softball Coach was very upset & outspoken at the end of the season when only 3 B1G teams were selected and 4th place Iowa was left out. She said playing conference only hurt the B1G and the blame falls on the B1G individuals who made those terrible decisions.

Being and playing outdoors is safe. We all know that. Kevin Warren and the people who made these bone headed, incorrect decisions, for some reason, did not seem to care.
I’ll add that even winning the NW and maybe Illinois series would not have got Iowa in. It’s looking increasingly likely that Iowa needed to sweep two of the three remaining series and just win one. 8-1 is a tough ask.
 
WOW, check this out. NJIT gets the bid because they are the lone unbeaten team in the conference tournament. You should see the comments on this too. People claiming there is no rain. According to WarrenNolan the game with them and Stony Brook is in the Bottom of the 3rd with SB having a 1-0 lead and bases loaded. SB also finished better in the regular season.

 
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WOW, check this out. NJIT gets the bid because they are the lone unbeaten team in the conference tournament. You should see the comments on this too. People claiming there is no rain. According to WarrenNolan the game with them and Stony Brook is in the Bottom of the 3rd with SB having a 1-0 lead and bases loaded. SB also finished better in the regular season.


 
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Looks like IU Is gonna win today's game. They are winning 7-2, heading to the Bottom of the 7th inning.

That puts IU in 4th and Iowa in 5th.

We all know what needed to happen starting FRIDAY; ALL 3 OF THESE THINGS needed to happen. It looks like 5th place Iowa has run out of luck today. Now it will be 4th place IU seeking #3, which is pity from the Selection Committee.

What needed to happen for Iowa to have a chance at being selected to the NCAA Tournament:

#1: Iowa must sweep Michigan State

#2: IU must sweep the 3 games from Maryland OR Maryland must sweep the 3 games from IU

#3: Pity from the Selection Committee on Selection Monday, where the Selection Committee takes 4th place in the B1G Iowa as a result of #1 and #2 happening.


cc: @BigOHawk @IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life @2bagger22 @funnyfletcher @SWIowahawks @whatsup13579er @KyleHuesmann @AuroraHawk @Alum-Ni @Cymonhawk @denmar81
 
It just sucks. IU finishes 4th in the B1G, Iowa 5th.

This will be a season of what ifs.

What if Iowa had a healthy pitching staff?

What if Iowa had played a full 56 game schedule (with NON CONFERENCE games) like other Power 5 Conferences?

What if Iowa had not had that covid pause right before the season started?

What if Iowa had simply won 2 of 4, instead of 1 of 4, from Michigan?

What if Iowa had won 2 of 3 from IU, Illinois & Northwestern instead of the other way around?

I could go on and on....
 
Iowa is predicted to finish 5th in the B1G & NOT make the NCAA Tournament.

The full story, where every B1G team is analyzed, is here:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/...-ten-baseball-preview-case-front-runner-tight





Some quick excerpts:

FEBRUARY 4, 2021
2021 Big Ten baseball preview: The case for a front-runner is tight

There isn’t a clear-cut front-runner in the Big Ten, which didn’t land a team in the D1Baseball Preseason Top 25. But that doesn’t mean the conference lacks contenders — the issue is, there are so many viable contenders that handicapping the race can almost feel like a crapshoot.

Michigan still has pieces left from its 2019 CWS Finals run along with enough emerging talent to make a run at the conference crown.

Indiana is loaded with pitching and a few impact position players, making the Hoosiers the other most obvious contender.

But Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Nebraska all have the look of bona fide regional teams as well. This race figures to be a punishing free-for-all.

TOP 25 POLL: Florida, UCLA, and Texas Tech headline the top 25 preseason rankings

The big X-factor for the Big Ten is how its modified schedule will affect its postseason chances with the selection committee. With the pandemic, Big Ten teams will play just 44 games instead of the normal 56, and they will be restricted to conference-only games. That could potentially hinder the Big Ten’s chances to get more than three teams into regionals, if the conference heavyweights beat up on each other and all finish closer to .500 overall than they normally might. It will be interesting to monitor.

Projected standings

*Teams are listed in order of projected finish

TEAM2020 RECORD
Michigan8-7
Indiana9-6
Maryland10-5
Ohio State6-8
Iowa10-5
Illinois8-5
Minnesota8-10
Nebraska7-8
Purdue7-7
Rutgers6-9
Michigan State9-6
Northwestern6-7
Penn State10-5


Projected regional teams (4): Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State
Player of the year: Maxwell Costes, 1B, Maryland
Pitcher of the year: Steven Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
Freshman of the year: Ryan Lasko, RF, Rutgers

It's always interesting to compare preseason predictions (Feb 4) with actual results.

D1 Baseball got it right when they predicted Iowa 5th in the B1G.

Nebraska (picked 7th) clearly outperformed expectations. Congrats, @Alum-Ni
 
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Final Big Ten Standings

1. Nebraska (31-12)
2. Maryland (28-16)
3. Michigan (27-17)
4. Indiana (26-18)
5. Iowa (26-18)


 
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Maryland started the season losing 3 straight to Michigan State. Now look at them; they are alone in 2nd place.

Lets compare how the Top 5 teams in the B1G performed over the final 4 weeks of the season.

IU was a sure bet to make NCAA Tournament on May 3rd. Now? Not so much.

Over the last 4 weeks, Nebraska & Maryland performed. Michigan, Indiana and Iowa? Not so much.


May 3, 2021 B1G Standings:

..........................................................Games
..........................................................Back
1. Indiana (20-9, .690).....................--
2. Nebraska (20-10, .667)..............1/2
3. Michigan (21-11, .656).................1/2
4. Iowa (19-13, .594)
......................2.5
4. Maryland (19-13, .594)
.............2.5


Records over Last 4 Weeks:

Indiana (6-9)

1-3 vs Nebraska
1-2 vs Maryland
1-2 vs Michigan
2-0 vs Rutgers
0-1 vs Illinois
1-1 vs Ohio State

Nebraska (11-2)
2-1 vs Michigan
3-1 vs Indiana
2-0 vs Rutgers
2-0 vs Northwestern
2-0 vs Ohio State

Michigan (6-6)
1-2 vs Nebraska
1-2 vs Maryland
2-1 vs Indiana
2-1 vs Michigan State

Iowa (7-5)
1-2 vs Illinois
1-2 vs Northwestern
2-1 vs Penn State
3-0 vs Michigan State

Maryland (9-3)
2-1 vs Michigan
2-1 vs Indiana
2-1 vs Illinois
3-0 vs Purdue


May 30, 2021, FINAL B1G Standings:

..........................................................Games
..........................................................Back
1. Nebraska (31-12, .721)..................--
2. Maryland (28-16, .636)................3 1/2
3. Michigan (27-17, .614)..................4 1/2
4. Indiana (26-18, .591)....................5 1/2
5. Iowa (26-18, .591).........................5 1/2

cc: @BigOHawk @IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life @2bagger22 @funnyfletcher @SWIowahawks @whatsup13579er @KyleHuesmann @AuroraHawk @Alum-Ni @Cymonhawk @denmar81
 
He is right, but the committee will make a point regarding the conference only and no tournament.
The committee should put an asterisk next to their decision with a link, addressed to the Big Ten front office, with a gif of someone giving them the middle finger.

The Big Ten front office will then roll their eyes, chuckle, and then make some phone calls to make sure Ohio State football is still netting them the millions of dollars that keep them filthy rich.......

True story, btw.
 
It's always interesting to compare preseason predictions (Feb 4) with actual results.

D1 Baseball got it right when they predicted Iowa 5th in the B1G.

Nebraska (picked 7th) clearly outperformed expectations. Congrats, @Alum-Ni
Outperformed my expectations for sure.

I thought they had a good shot to make the NCAAs....and even D1Baseball thought they had a really good overall roster, put the pitching was the big question mark.
 
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Outperformed my expectations for sure.

I thought they had a good shot to make the NCAAs....and even D1Baseball thought they had a really good overall roster, put the pitching was the big question mark.

Nebraska should have been formidable this year. They actually benefitted from the Covid year and guys returning. Heck, I’d wager they are older than most minor league baseball teams. Their experience and how they performed under a second year coach reminds me of 2015 under Heller for Iowa.
 
Nebraska should have been formidable this year. They actually benefitted from the Covid year and guys returning. Heck, I’d wager they are older than most minor league baseball teams. Their experience and how they performed under a second year coach reminds me of 2015 under Heller for Iowa.
Bolt also brought in some good transfers and got some great recruiting in the COVID year that really helped out too.
 
Maryland started the season losing 3 straight to Michigan State. Now look at them; they are alone in 2nd place.

Lets compare how the Top 5 teams in the B1G performed over the final 4 weeks of the season.

IU was a sure bet to make NCAA Tournament on May 3rd. Now? Not so much.

Over the last 4 weeks, Nebraska & Maryland performed. Michigan, Indiana and Iowa? Not so much.


May 3, 2021 B1G Standings:

..........................................................Games
..........................................................Back
1. Indiana (20-9, .690).....................--
2. Nebraska (20-10, .667)..............1/2
3. Michigan (21-11, .656).................1/2
4. Iowa (19-13, .594)
......................2.5
4. Maryland (19-13, .594)
.............2.5


Records over Last 4 Weeks:

Indiana (6-9)

1-3 vs Nebraska
1-2 vs Maryland
1-2 vs Michigan
2-0 vs Rutgers
0-1 vs Illinois
1-1 vs Ohio State

Nebraska (11-2)
2-1 vs Michigan
3-1 vs Indiana
2-0 vs Rutgers
2-0 vs Northwestern
2-0 vs Ohio State

Michigan (6-6)
1-2 vs Nebraska
1-2 vs Maryland
2-1 vs Indiana
2-1 vs Michigan State

Iowa (7-5)
1-2 vs Illinois
1-2 vs Northwestern
2-1 vs Penn State
3-0 vs Michigan State

Maryland (9-3)
2-1 vs Michigan
2-1 vs Indiana
2-1 vs Illinois
3-0 vs Purdue


May 30, 2021, FINAL B1G Standings:

..........................................................Games
..........................................................Back
1. Nebraska (31-12, .721)..................--
2. Maryland (28-16, .636)................3 1/2
3. Michigan (27-17, .614)..................4 1/2
4. Indiana (26-18, .591)....................5 1/2
5. Iowa (26-18, .591).........................5 1/2

cc: @BigOHawk @IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life @2bagger22 @funnyfletcher @SWIowahawks @whatsup13579er @KyleHuesmann @AuroraHawk @Alum-Ni @Cymonhawk @denmar81

Iowa had a chance over the last 4 weeks to make a move from a 4th place tie with Maryland.

Maryland had the harder schedule yet it was Maryland who made their move & outperformed Iowa.

Over the last 4 weeks, Maryland moved up to sole possession of 2nd place. And Iowa? Iowa moved down (from 4th to 5th).

Since May 3rd:

Iowa (7-5)
1-2 vs Illinois
1-2 vs Northwestern
2-1 vs Penn State
3-0 vs Michigan State

Maryland (9-3)
2-1 vs Michigan
2-1 vs Indiana
2-1 vs Illinois
3-0 vs Purdue




 
I’d laugh my ass off if D1 and BA projections were way wrong this year. Sometimes I feel these experts get a little egotistical about their projections. It’s also because I know the conference is much stronger than they are giving it credit for being.
 
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