Did we really just go for two when down 9?

[ABYPFCS]

While there really is no right or wrong answer, I believe if football coaches were polled across the country 95% or higher would say to go for 1 pt, and then if the opportunity happened go for 2 to tie the game. I do concede that the chances are the same in going for 2 pts, whether early or late, with the possible exception if a fake was used on the first attempt.

I remember a few years ago the coach at Minnesota after scoring late in the game was up by 7 points and instead of going for 1 to go up by 8, he decided to go for 2 to go up by 9. The attempt was not successful and his crazy thinking did not cost them the game. He explained by going for 2 the game would have been over. He however was not the coach the next year.

 

[cidhawkeye]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

Here's another article that talks about it. About 5 or 6 points down. I really want you to figure this out. Some day you will realize when we didn't get the two point conversion with no time left we still would have lost the game, yet had no time to potentially recover. You are a big fan of false hope. You know you are not getting the two!!! Why not give yourself some more time on the clock?

Do you realize you are linking NFL stories and the first one is about the middle of the 4th quarter situations?

 

[speed4power]

So you're saying you go for two when we did, and if it fails, at least we know we lost, not what we need. Try again.

No, that's not what I'm saying.

 

[pocha444444]

Do you realize you are linking NFL stories and the first one is about the middle of the 4th quarter situations?

Read further down

 

[pocha444444]

Its being explained exactly why but you just refuse to understand it lol.

You keep repeating the simple part that everyone gets but you're not grasping the rest of it.

What is your argument for kicking it then? Because all I've seen (and I admit I haven't read this entire thread) is that you are forcing the other team to recover the onside kick. Whatever that means. You have any other arguments for your strategy because that one makes no sense? The other team will try to recover the onside kick in either situatuon. My argument is that in my scenario, getting the two point conversion is obviously good, no matter when it happens. But not getting the two, is better in my scenario because you still have time to overcome the failed two point attempt. I know you will say the odds are low, which they are, it would have been better with 4 minutes left, but the same strategy still allows. There was still technically a chance to overcome the failed attempt. Versus a zero percent chance of overcoming a failed two point attempt with no time left on the clock.

 

[papabeef]

What is your argument for kicking it then? Because all I've seen (and I admit I haven't read this entire thread) is that you are forcing the other team to recover the onside kick. Whatever that means. You have any other arguments for your strategy because that one makes no sense? The other team will try to recover the onside kick in either situatuon. My argument is that in my scenario, getting the two point conversion is obviously good, no matter when it happens. But not getting the two, is better in my scenario because you still have time to overcome the failed two point attempt. I know you will say the odds are low, which they are, it would have been better with 4 minutes left, but the same strategy still allows. There was still technically a chance to overcome the failed attempt. Versus a zero percent chance of overcoming a failed two point attempt with no time left on the clock.

OMG you are talking about scoring 9 points in 1:04 . you cant be that slow of mind.

 

[pocha444444]

OMG you are talking about scoring 9 points in 1:04 . you cant be that slow of mind.

I'm feeling the same way about you, but it's ok. Please just get off the fact that the chance of coming back from 9 down with 1:04 is very low. We all know that, obviously. What are the odds of coming back from down 2 with zero time left? That is my point. You guys still aren't getting it. The two point conversion is going to be missed, when would you rather not convert it? I repeat, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO CONVERT THE TWO POINT CONVERSION. That is the question you should be answering.

 

[Doodads and Hoohah]

I've read the articles that say it is a wash as to whether you should kick or go for the 2 point conversion but I'm still solidly in the should have kicked the extra point camp. Here's why:

Like others have said, you are not only fighting your opponent, but also the clock. If there was 10 or heck even 5 minutes left in the game, sure try the 2. But there was only 1:04!!!!!. I look at situations like this as POSSESSIONS, not scores.

If you MAKE the PAT you only need one more possession. If you MAKE the 2 point try you still need one additional possession. If you MISS the 2 point conversion(less than half the success rate of a PAT), you guarantee that you need TWO more possessions.... in 1:04!!!!!!!

Last I checked the onside kick success rate is only about 25%. Don't you think you would want the option that requires you to only recover one onside kick and not two???

The clock makes all the difference. Its cut and dry to me.

 

[Doodads and Hoohah]

I'm feeling the same way about you, but it's ok. Please just get off the fact that the chance of coming back from 9 down with 1:04 is very low. We all know that, obviously. What are the odds of coming back from down 2 with zero time left? That is my point. You guys still aren't getting it. The two point conversion is going to be missed, when would you rather not convert it? I repeat, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO CONVERT THE TWO POINT CONVERSION. That is the question you should be answering.

The odds of converting a 2 pt. conversion with no time left is MUCH higher than coming back from 9 down with 1:04 left. It isn't even an argument. Also, your argument is that we assume we are going to miss the 2 pt. conversion is flawed. . No one assumes that when analyzing these situations.

 

[papabeef]

I'm feeling the same way about you, but it's ok. Please just get off the fact that the chance of coming back from 9 down with 1:04 is very low. We all know that, obviously. What are the odds of coming back from down 2 with zero time left? That is my point. You guys still aren't getting it. The two point conversion is going to be missed, when would you rather not convert it? I repeat, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO CONVERT THE TWO POINT CONVERSION. That is the question you should be answering.

you are an idiot.

 

[SCKCtb93]

1. The coaches had to know that they only had time for 2 possessions to score. The only viable chance to force overtime was to do it in 2 possessions not three. That is clear and not debatable.

2. If you don't understand the value of extending the game when you are the losing team you obviously haven't watched a significant amount of sports. The goal of the losing team should be to extend the game which is why you kick the extra point there. Extending the game gives more opportunities for opponents to make a critical mistake.

After deciding that you only have 2 possessions to score (1.), you don't want to end the game earlier than you have to (2.) so you go with the option that has a much higher success rate (extra point over 2 point conversion).

 

[pocha444444]

The odds of converting a 2 pt. conversion with no time left is MUCH higher than coming back from 9 down with 1:04 left. It isn't even an argument. Also, your argument is that we assume we are going to miss the 2 pt. conversion is flawed. . No one assumes that when analyzing these situations.

Missing the point. We already know we aren't getting the two point conversion. We tried with two minutes left and failed. If we would have tried with no time left we also would have failed and lost the game. The odds of converting a two point conversion are the exact same no matter when you attempt it.

 

[papabeef]

Missing the point. We already know we aren't getting the two point conversion. We tried with two minutes left and failed. If we would have tried with no time left we also would have failed and lost the game. The odds of converting a two point conversion are the exact same no matter when you attempt it.

we never scored with 2 minutes left.

 

[papabeef]

we never scored with 2 minutes left.

you have got to be trolling . no one is that stupid.

 

[papabeef]

you have got to be trolling . no one is that stupid.

the odds have nothing to do with this situation.

 

[sarasotahawk93]

This thread is fascinating! OK, I get being on either side of this. What I find amazing is how completely and totally dug in people can become. They either choose not to see the other side or can not. This is really about as close to a coin flip decision as there is depending on your philosophy.

 

[pocha444444]

Let me try to make this simple for you people:

Scenario 1: We are going to succeed on the two point conversion

- if we convert with two minutes left, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and extra point to tie the game
- if we wait and kick the extra point, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and then a two point conversion to tie the game

So basically the same outcome when you are going to succeed on the conversion.

Scenario 2: We are not going to be successful on the two point conversion

- if we don't get the conversion with two minutes left, we now know that we must get two more onside kicks to have any sort of chance at tying the game (we at least have some chance at still winning the game)
- if we kick the extra point with two minutes left and don't get the conversion with little or no time left, the game is simply over and we have no time to adjust for our failed conversion (we have zero chance at winning the game if we wait for the failed conversion)

Even though the chance is low for two onside kicks, any reasonable person should still want to take that chance versus having no chance at all if you wait and don't get the conversion. The odds of getting a two point conversion are the same no matter when it is attempted.

 

[papabeef]

This thread is fascinating! OK, I get being on either side of this. What I find amazing is how completely and totally dug in people can become. They either choose not to see the other side or can not. This is really about as close to a coin flip decision as there is depending on your philosophy.

so missing the 2 pt.er when we did means that we go down 9 . that means we need 2 possessions in the last 1:04 with 2 time outs and we will need to recover 2 onside kicks. if we kick the extra point we are down 8 with a slim opportunity to tie the score with a TD. rocket science ?

 

[papabeef]

Let me try to make this simple for you people:

Scenario 1: We are going to succeed on the two point conversion

- if we convert with two minutes left, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and extra point to tie the game
- if we wait and kick the extra point, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and then a two point conversion to tie the game

So basically the same outcome when you are going to succeed on the conversion.

Scenario 2: We are not going to be successful on the two point conversion

- if we don't get the conversion with two minutes left, we now know that we must get two more onside kicks to have any sort of chance at tying the game (we at least have some chance at still winning the game)
- if we kick the extra point with two minutes left and don't get the conversion with little or no time left, the game is simply over and we have no time to adjust for our failed conversion (we have zero chance at winning the game if we wait for the failed conversion)

Even though the chance is low for two onside kicks, any reasonable person should still want to take that chance versus having no chance at all if you wait and don't get the conversion. The odds of getting a two point conversion are the same no matter when it is attempted.

1:04 left, odds have nothing to do with it.

 

[pocha444444]

so missing the 2 pt.er when we did means that we go down 9 . that means we need 2 possessions in the last 1:04 with 2 time outs and we will need to recover 2 onside kicks. if we kick the extra point we are down 8 with a slim opportunity to tie the score with a TD. rocket science ?

You are so caught up with how we missed the two pointer to go down 9. What happens when we miss the two pointer at the end of the game? We still need another possession, yet there's no time left.

 

[pocha444444]

1:04 left, odds have nothing to do with it.

Could you actually make a reasonable argument on this. You are responding but you aren't actually saying anything that makes sense. I've put out my argument. Odds have nothing to do with it? What the hell does that mean? Odds have everything to do with it. You always want to increase the odds of your team winning.

 

[SCKCtb93]

Let me try to make this simple for you people:

Scenario 1: We are going to succeed on the two point conversion

- if we convert with two minutes left, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and extra point to tie the game
- if we wait and kick the extra point, we still need an onside kick, touchdown and then a two point conversion to tie the game

So basically the same outcome when you are going to succeed on the conversion.

Scenario 2: We are not going to be successful on the two point conversion

- if we don't get the conversion with two minutes left, we now know that we must get two more onside kicks to have any sort of chance at tying the game (we at least have some chance at still winning the game)
- if we kick the extra point with two minutes left and don't get the conversion with little or no time left, the game is simply over and we have no time to adjust for our failed conversion (we have zero chance at winning the game if we wait for the failed conversion)

Even though the chance is low for two onside kicks, any reasonable person should still want to take that chance versus having no chance at all if you wait and don't get the conversion. The odds of getting a two point conversion are the same no matter when it is attempted.

I think your scenarios are reasonable if we had over 3:00 minutes left in the game. The problem is we scored with 1:04 left in the game which takes away the option of getting 2 more possessions as a reasonable or somewhat viable option.

 

[sarasotahawk93]

Oh my! I do not think he's digging in...I don't think Papa sees it.

 

[papabeef]

You are so caught up with how we missed the two pointer to go down 9. What happens when we miss the two pointer at the end of the game? We still need another possession, yet there's no time left.

I am going to turn the table on you .what are the odds on recovering 2 onside kicks in 1:04 if we miss the first extra point ?

 

[papabeef]

Oh my! I do not think he's digging in...I don't think Papa sees it.

understatement of the year.

 

[80sHawkeye]

Right and if all you are trying to do is extend hope, then kick it. Extending hope does not mean you increase your odds of actually winning the game at all though.

At least you have odds to still have a chance.

 

[obfuscating]

Im not sure why this is such a big deal, we had to either make it then or on the next series.
We were in a little bit of a flow, and Im guessing BF saw something he liked.
Again, an overblown critique of something that really didnt matter either way.
If we had made it, it would have gave the team that much more of a boost and hope, so that point is not valid IMO.

The only "flow" happening at the time were the fans flowing for the exits - it wasn't on the field.

 

[pocha444444]

I am going to turn the table on you .what are the odds on recovering 2 onside kicks in 1:04 if we miss the first extra point ?

I'm going to assume you mean after missing the two point conversion. And those odds would be very low. But those odds would still be higher than getting another onside kick after not getting the two if we had waited, because those odds would be zero. There would be zero time left. At least you have some time left in my scenario.

 

[sarasotahawk93]

Papa, YOU STILL NEED THE EXTRA POSSESSION if you miss the 2 point conversion now or later!!!

I understand kicking to keep hope alive but I also understand going for 2 now to know what you're dealing with make or miss.

 

[papabeef]

Your small chance of winning is greater if you are down 7.

no its not because we will kick the next extra point to extend the game. we would not go for 2 points again.

 

[papabeef]

Papa, YOU STILL NEED THE EXTRA POSSESSION if you miss the 2 point conversion now or later!!!

I understand kicking to keep hope alive but I also understand going for 2 now to know what you're dealing with make or miss.

1: 04 is all I need the say.

 

[Pepperman]

I'm officially dubbing 2017 the year we destroyed OSU and then argued about 2-pt conversions.

FWIW, I am firmly in the camp that we were to kick the EP, extend the game, and hopefully have the chance to tie it. I get that it isn't probable. I do not get the logic that I should assume the 2-pt would fail and therefore we might as well get that out of the way and lose earlier. Probably losing either way, but one way you keep pressure on the opponent and perhaps raise your own team's emotional level. Emotion and momentum matter a ton in college football.

 

[papabeef]

I'm going to assume you mean after missing the two point conversion. And those odds would be very low. But those odds would still be higher than getting another onside kick after not getting the two if we had waited, because those odds would be zero. There would be zero time left. At least you have some time left in my scenario.

you are assuming there will be time left after we score another touchdown. there was 1:04 left not 2 minutes. 56 seconds is a long time.

 

[papabeef]

I'm officially dubbing 2017 the year we destroyed OSU and then argued about 2-pt conversions.

FWIW, I am firmly in the camp that we were to kick the EP, extend the game, and hopefully have the chance to tie it. I get that it isn't probable. I do not get the logic that I should assume the 2-pt would fail and therefore we might as well get that out of the way and lose earlier. Probably losing either way, but one way you keep pressure on the opponent and perhaps raise your own team's emotional level. Emotion and momentum matter a ton in college football.

well said.

 

[Randall Stanhope]

This thread is incredible. Hopefully you guys get to the bottom of this soon

Oh, I think we've already reached the bottom...

 

[Randall Stanhope]

This is really about as close to a coin flip decision as there is depending on your philosophy.

Here's my argument that it's not a coin flip decision: Well over 50%, probably over 90%, of people who have made a career out of the game of football, would kick the extra point.

What's your argument that it's a coin flip decision?

(Please don't answer that, I don't want this thread to go another 7 pages.)

 

[farhawks]

 

[papabeef]

Could you actually make a reasonable argument on this. You are responding but you aren't actually saying anything that makes sense. I've put out my argument. Odds have nothing to do with it? What the hell does that mean? Odds have everything to do with it. You always want to increase the odds of your team winning.

but you do not increase the odds of winning doing things your way . your way means we have to recover 2 onside kicks to win . time is the biggest factor here and you wont acknowledge that .

 

[sarasotahawk93]

I'm officially dubbing 2017 the year we destroyed OSU and then argued about 2-pt conversions.

FWIW, I am firmly in the camp that we were to kick the EP, extend the game, and hopefully have the chance to tie it. I get that it isn't probable. I do not get the logic that I should assume the 2-pt would fail and therefore we might as well get that out of the way and lose earlier. Probably losing either way, but one way you keep pressure on the opponent and perhaps raise your own team's emotional level. Emotion and momentum matter a ton in college football.

Who said they were assuming the 2 point would fail. It is the aggressive call. Question for me...was that really the best play they had in their pocket for that moment of the game? If the play is right and the 2 pt conversion is good then momentum is even stronger. Crazy thing is...I'm in the kick camp but can't believe h

 

[sarasotahawk93]

Here's my argument that it's not a coin flip decision: Well over 50%, probably over 90%, of people who have made a career out of the game of football, would kick the extra point.

What's your argument that it's a coin flip decision?

(Please don't answer that, I don't want this thread to go another 7 pages.)

My argument that it is a coin flip decision: Well under 90%, probably 50%, of people who have made a career out of the game of football, would kick the extra point. See how that works...my numbers are just as scientific as yours. Thought everyone wanted to play to win, not to lose...