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Early Big Ten men's BB projections

Yeah, the pessimists spray this bullshit every spring. Five consecutive NCAA qualifications, 8 or the last ten seasons isn't the profile of a team that suddenly drops to the bottom.

It could happen, every season is a new team. Middle of the pack. NCAA qualifier, prolly an 8-10 seed and lose in the first round, maybe the second.
 
This is one of the saddest statements I have seen in awhile. Rebounding is going to be a problem unless we land a 4/5 from somewhere. The Krikke signing helps but he looks a like a undersized 5 who has been pegged as a scorer not a rebounder. Mulvey better be upping his game
Do you disagree? You probably set me up for comments from Mac family critics by quoting only a part of a sentence.
 
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Yeah, the pessimists spray this bullshit every spring. Five consecutive NCAA qualifications, 8 or the last ten seasons isn't the profile of a team that suddenly drops to the bottom.

It could happen, every season is a new team. Middle of the pack. NCAA qualifier, prolly an 8-10 seed and lose in the first round, maybe the second.

It’s year 14, any chance of a big ten regular season title or final four?
 
It’s year 14, any chance of a big ten regular season title or final four?
Interesting but not relevant. The question was the annual prediction of a collapse into the cellar of the Big Ten and my belief that was unfounded, irrational pessimism.

I'm not predicting a Big Ten or Final Four so there's a big difference in your question and my statement.. Just an upper half, NCAA first or second round, like most McC years.

I'd like to see the boys win more but insufficiently so to risk what we have on the chimera of finding better.
 
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The top 10? Lol no its very easy to imagine. The system rolls on and while it leads nowhere in the tourney it does produce middle of the pack b1g teams.
This exactly.

There is nothing more worthless in sports than preseason college basketball predictions, now more than ever.

Iowa gets picked near the bottom almost every year and it never happens.
 
DB takes a huge step forward ...think Val Barnes ...at least honorable mention all-b1g
- if not, look out for Nimmers to take his job and do the same

Dix, with a full year and half since his injury is back to full form and becomes "Cmac with an O-game"

Sandfort takes an even bigger step forward, 19 pts/gm ...at least 2nd team all-b1g

Krikke and Mack (🙏) provide the frontcourt explosion this team has been lacking.

SWEET 16 here we come!!!
I see some Ayo Dosunmu in Bowen.

I think Nimmers will be an impact guy soon but I don't think he will ever play pg.

If he was capable of playing pg with his athleticism and shooting theres just no way on earth he wouldn't have had a ton of scholarship offers out of High-school.
 
I’m really anxious to see what Josh and Dasonte accomplish in the weight room and with other off-season work.
Bowen was physically overmatched all season long. He knows what he has to do to get on the court.
Let's all be honest about Dix. We were all holding our breath the first few times he stepped on the court. After that he showed he has a lot of rust on his game, and a lot of conditioning to catch up on, but there is a ton of promise. For one he didn't wilt mentally in pressure situations.
Those two guys have a lot to work on, but it's on them. They don't need to learn anything, they just need to work on their physical skills and conditioning.
 
A LONG time ago, I actually thought Andy Katz knew what he is talking about. He talks a LOT, but doesn't!

Until we see how the dust settles on transfers, it is too early to be making predictions. Unfortunately, I agree that MSU will be one of the early favorites. I only looked at the excellent analysis by HawkHoops 80 quickly, but I would wonder why Andy would not have the Mildcats much nearer the top of his predictions with their guards and 2 other starters back. Lots of moving parts on many of the teams. PSU is incredible....

Hawks lost their 3 best interior players and the leaders of the team, so we have a lot to prove. Yes, we were so thin on the interior last year, that I believe Connor was our third best interior player, in addition to being a team leader.
Katz achieved his objective, he got clicks and people talking. It's all conjecture at this point because nobody knows who is going to be on the rosters next year. Every team is out there looking in the portal because every team lost players.
We'll know more in a month.
 
Katz achieved his objective, he got clicks and people talking. It's all conjecture at this point because nobody knows who is going to be on the rosters next year. Every team is out there looking in the portal because every team lost players.
We'll know more in a month.
Look at Hawkhoops80's nice listing of current players for each team (returning and portal to date) and tell me how Katz picked PSU 9th. More like a good YMCA team right now. If they stay healthy, I would bet that NW finishes in the top 5 and probably higher. Katz just talks, and talks, and talks....
 
Right now, it is hard to imagine Iowa being any better than a .500 team. I hope I'm wrong and they turn out to be better.
I think you’re focusing too much on just Iowa in your analysis. By that, I mean, they will likely win the bulk of their non-conference games and several of the unexpectedly strong Big10 teams this past year (like N’Western and Penn State) will fall to the mean. While several other teams like Indiana and even pesky Nebraska lose quite a bit of their talent from this season. So that will all factor into Iowa finishing above 500.
 
Brock harding comes in, wins pg duties before conference starts. Perkins at the 2, Josh Dix 3, Sand4 at the 4, this new guy at the 5.

Bowen gets 20+mins off the bench. Pryce and PMac fill in, gives us some offense.

Owen Freeman - maybe some Woody in him? As in good defensive instincts. Hes gonna play but pry a year away.

Debale is a wild card to me. Not sure what to expect. That Frontcourt looks weak and unatletic. We could use a guy with that size profile if he can go.

Nimmers - sick highlights but complete unknown. Fran said a sentence about him when Tom asked at the banquet. Hes holding his cards tight. I could see him grabbing a late scholly because he might get others in the portal now.

Kingsbury - above average walk on. Decent potential.


We could be nuclear on offense. This new big is a great rim runner? Hes gonna feast in this offense. He can gives us mid range buckets - rebraca huge liability there. Throw in what he know about Sandfort, perkins. Dix is it! Hes our guy and confident he is gonna be a dude. He didnt start playing until September last year. Money shooter with good size and competes defensively. Harding is a mistro will contine to asend.

Top 4, 5 seed.
 
I think you’re focusing too much on just Iowa in your analysis. By that, I mean, they will likely win the bulk of their non-conference games and several of the unexpectedly strong Big10 teams this past year (like N’Western and Penn State) will fall to the mean. While several other teams like Indiana and even pesky Nebraska lose quite a bit of their talent from this season. So that will all factor into Iowa finishing above 500.
Why will NW fall? They basically have everyone back, which gives especially good guards.
 
At the current moment, I'd say we are 12 or 13. Still ahead of Minnesota but not much else.

Women #1.
Iowa men’s hoops team will likely finish middle of pack. I agree the women’s team will be projected pre-season #1 in conference, but I fear with a target on their backs, they won’t finish first.
 
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Brock harding comes in, wins pg duties before conference starts. Perkins at the 2, Josh Dix 3, Sand4 at the 4, this new guy at the 5.

Bowen gets 20+mins off the bench. Pryce and PMac fill in, gives us some offense.

Owen Freeman - maybe some Woody in him? As in good defensive instincts. Hes gonna play but pry a year away.

Debale is a wild card to me. Not sure what to expect. That Frontcourt looks weak and unatletic. We could use a guy with that size profile if he can go.

Nimmers - sick highlights but complete unknown. Fran said a sentence about him when Tom asked at the banquet. Hes holding his cards tight. I could see him grabbing a late scholly because he might get others in the portal now.

Kingsbury - above average walk on. Decent potential.


We could be nuclear on offense. This new big is a great rim runner? Hes gonna feast in this offense. He can gives us mid range buckets - rebraca huge liability there. Throw in what he know about Sandfort, perkins. Dix is it! Hes our guy and confident he is gonna be a dude. He didnt start playing until September last year. Money shooter with good size and competes defensively. Harding is a mistro will contine to asend.

Top 4, 5 seed.
This would likely be the worst defensive lineup in the history of college basketball.
 
Iowa men’s hoops team will likely finish middle of pack. I agree the women’s team will be projected pre-season #1 in conference, but I fear with a target on their backs, they won’t finish first.

I agree with the women, I'm just saying they will be preseason #1 unless something happens at OSU, Maryland or Indiana.

I don't see how the men are not a first 4 game in the BTT.
 
I think you’re focusing too much on just Iowa in your analysis. By that, I mean, they will likely win the bulk of their non-conference games and several of the unexpectedly strong Big10 teams this past year (like N’Western and Penn State) will fall to the mean. While several other teams like Indiana and even pesky Nebraska lose quite a bit of their talent from this season. So that will all factor into Iowa finishing above 500.
I hope you're right.
 
Defense. Somehow we did what we did this year without being able to guard people. We got enough big nights from enough guys.

If Krikke can demand a double and pass out of it (I have no idea if he is a good passer) to shooters we have a chance to win some games at home.

16-15 prediction.
Blah blah on defense. We were much better in defense last year than usual. Plus why do you not mention other teams sucky defense that can’t keep us from leading league in scoring most years?
 
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I don't care if we average 100 points per game if we can't get out of the first weekend. Fran does a great job coaching and recruiting offense. No argument here. We score. I love our tempo. I don't mind any guy bringing the ball up the floor (great recruiting point for prospects), but we can't guard a pick and roll to save our lives.

If we ever want to get to the second weekend of the tourney, we need to play defense. Or teach lateral movement. Or put hands up in the zone. Hands at our sides drives me nuts.

Give me Franball over Lickliter any day of the week. But don't expect a deep tourney run unless defensive fundamentals change.

I have a feeling Gatens has steam coming out of his ears watching our effort at times.
 
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I don't care if we average 100 points per game if we can't get out of the first weekend. Fran does a great job coaching and recruiting offense. No argument here. We score. I love our tempo. I don't mind any guy bringing the ball up the floor (great recruiting point for prospects), but we can't guard a pick and roll to save our lives.

If we ever want to get to the second weekend of the tourney, we need to play defense. Or teach lateral movement. Or put hands up in the zone. Hands at our sides drives me nuts.

Give me Franball over Lickliter any day of the week. But don't expect a deep tourney run unless defensive fundamentals change.

I have a feeling Gatens has steam coming out of his ears watching our effort at times.
Maybe Gatens should start getting in some players faces on timeouts? He probably can't with the worst offender, but Perkins and Sandfort both were not good on defense in a lot of games. Not sure why with Tony. Payton is a step slow. For a true freshman, I thought Dix was pretty good, especially when he was getting some extended minutes.
 
My expectations are similar to this year. Hoping for a top half finish in the conference with a fighting chance to make the NCAA field. I would not be surprised to see all 4 freshmen getting some playing time, with perhaps one or two of them becoming real contributors by the end of the season. Krikke helps and if Brauns ends up here that helps to put some more length and size in the lineup. Mulvey, Bowen and Dix should all improve their games with added experience and maturity.

Was Katz aware that at some point a couple of weeks ago Penn State had just two or three scholarship players left on their roster after Shrewsberry jumped ship and a bunch of their guys portaled out, declared or graduated? Not to mention bringing in a new coach is always a challenge. Penn State apparently has neglected to address the NIL issue as they have no organized NIL program operating yet on their behalf, which was a primary reason Shrewsberry jumped ship.
 
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History is far more on the side of a pessimist that would think that Iowa will indeed take a step back next year with only 2 starters and 1 quality reserve returning.
Sure, I could have included Bowen and Dix as returning players but in the scheme of things they both played very few minutes except to think they both could become quality players going forward.
So what does an Iowa fan that only sees the positives about the upcoming season have to hold on to.
For one thing, I see maybe the best freshman class that Fran has ever recruited to Iowa, Sandford as a shooter Iowa's Mr. Basketball, Dembele 6-9, 250lbs built like a brick house and very impressive in all areas of the game, Harding and Freeman, even though they weren't given 4 star ratings, they should have been awards the extra star. You don't win the 4A championship in Illinois without being elite talent and Brock and Owen certainly proved that they play at an elite level and add to those 4 freshmen Amarion Nimmers who could be the most athletic and skilled guard Iowa has on it's roster and someone from that group if not more then 1, is going to be worthy of starter minutes or lots of minutes off the bench.
I know lot's of posters on here have given up on Riley Mulvey, and sure he didn't see much floor time even though there were certainly lots of opportunities for him to see action if Fran had done so, but Riley still has the enthusiasm and I believe the talent to shine in his last 2 years at Iowa. In the one game that meant something, the Michigan game, he played extremely good and held his own against Hunter Dickinson in that game and that's what I'm hanging my hat on. We'll see.
Dix, Bowen, and Payton Sandford should all be stronger and hopefully more improved.
The only question I have is whether Patrick is going to get stronger or is he going to come back as the same player he was last year. Not crazy about is defense, played too far off his opposition, and struggled with his consistency all season long. Will he start, come off the bench, or even play next year?
Love me some Tony Perkins, it's hard to imagine him being better then he was last year but consistency in his game is something I'm looking to see him improve on and becoming the team leader. He's got the talent!
That leaves the newcomer in Ben Krikke, don't know much about him but at 6-9 220/230 he averaged near 20 points a game, he has the experience and the game to help Iowa next year after losing Kris, Conner, and Pilip.
Iowa has the pieces to improve on any finish that is predicted before the season begins and I believe it all depends on how Fran puts those pieces together.
It will be interesting how Iowa plays those exhibition games in Spain this summer and hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised at how good this team will become by the start of the new season in November.
 
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Iowa has the pieces to improve on any finish that is predicted before the season begins and I believe it all depends on how Fran puts those pieces together.
It will be interesting how Iowa plays those exhibition games in Spain this summer and hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised at how good this team will become by the start of the new season in November.

I think that trip to Espana is going to be key for next years team ...gotta start building chemistry asap.
 
I see that the NCAA has granted Xavier Johnson,IU point guard, another year due to his injury last year.
I think it is legit since he really did not get on the court last year.
Seems like a decade ago that he was a frosh starter for Pitt and Gary dolphin got in trouble when he wondered aloud on a hot mic why Fran could not find guards like Pitt.
Fran was pissed.
Anyway, IU will benefit as Xavier was pretty good at 18...now he will be like 24.
 
Once again, the unbalanced schedule will affect the conference standings. I think I saw somewhere that Indiana gets to play three contenders (MSU, NW and Illinois) only once and two of them are on their court. We will probably get to dodge PSU and Minnesota.
 
Once again, the unbalanced schedule will affect the conference standings. I think I saw somewhere that Indiana gets to play three contenders (MSU, NW and Illinois) only once and two of them are on their court. We will probably get to dodge PSU and Minnesota.

Iowa will get PSU and Minnesota twice.

They’ll only play at: IU, MSU, and N’western

They’ll only play at home vs: Nebraska, Rutgers, and OSU.


I think Iowa got a pretty favorable (or at least fair) schedule compared to years past. But they’ll play a lot of the top half twice with the exception of @MSU, @NW, and Rutgers. PSU and Minnesota will likely be pretty bad, but the other 11 teams are going to be dog fights throughout the season.
 
I see that the NCAA has granted Xavier Johnson,IU point guard, another year due to his injury last year.
I think it is legit since he really did not get on the court last year.
Seems like a decade ago that he was a frosh starter for Pitt and Gary dolphin got in trouble when he wondered aloud on a hot mic why Fran could not find guards like Pitt.
Fran was pissed.
Anyway, IU will benefit as Xavier was pretty good at 18...now he will be like 24.

Dolph was right
 
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Once again, the unbalanced schedule will affect the conference standings. I think I saw somewhere that Indiana gets to play three contenders (MSU, NW and Illinois) only once and two of them are on their court. We will probably get to dodge PSU and Minnesota.


As he says, this is a very loose projection and rosters are still changing--but as of the day the schedules released, Iowa's Big Ten schedule was the 3rd easiest in the conference.
 


As he says, this is a very loose projection and rosters are still changing--but as of the day the schedules released, Iowa's Big Ten schedule was the 3rd easiest in the conference.

That looks pretty close except I think Indiana and Nebraska are too high and Wisconsin is way too high. I’d say N’western is projected too low to maybe a lot too low.
 
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That looks pretty close except I think Indiana and Nebraska are too high and Wisconsin is way too high. I’d say N’western is projected too low to maybe a lot too low.
The reason why Northwestern is so low is that he isn't including any players that have declared for the draft in his projections--so Buie and Audige are not factored in.

I agree on both Indiana and Nebraska too high--I don't really see the love for Indiana yet. It's a lineup that has a lot of potential but a lot of that potential has been disappointing college careers up to this point and I don't trust Woodson to be able to fix that.

Wisconsin is kind of that interesting team that's going to test whether bringing back everyone on an average NIT team actually equates to being better. Bringing in Storr should help with some of the Chucky "hero ball" stuff they dealt with last year, but not sure it moves the needle that much.

It's interesting--MSU and Purdue seem head and shoulders above everyone and then IMO, like last year, it's going to be a bunch of above average to average teams 3-10.
 
The reason why Northwestern is so low is that he isn't including any players that have declared for the draft in his projections--so Buie and Audige are not factored in.

I agree on both Indiana and Nebraska too high--I don't really see the love for Indiana yet. It's a lineup that has a lot of potential but a lot of that potential has been disappointing college careers up to this point and I don't trust Woodson to be able to fix that.

Wisconsin is kind of that interesting team that's going to test whether bringing back everyone on an average NIT team actually equates to being better. Bringing in Storr should help with some of the Chucky "hero ball" stuff they dealt with last year, but not sure it moves the needle that much.

It's interesting--MSU and Purdue seem head and shoulders above everyone and then IMO, like last year, it's going to be a bunch of above average to average teams 3-10.

I didn’t think about those two NW guys. That makes sense. I assumed theyd test the waters and be back for sure.

I expect NW to be pretty solid next year, but a part of me thinks they’ll still go full NW and perform lower than they should. Either way, I don’t see a whole lot of separation between 4-12 next year. Should be an exciting season.
 
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