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ESPN Bracketology, Updated MARCH 13. IOWA is a 5 Seed in CHICAGO Regional. Bracket Matrix on MARCH 13 has IOWA a 5 Seed. #14 NET Ranking on March 13

17-7 now....
Most likely scenario
1-3 on Road
2-1 at Home
20-11 (10-10)

Best Case
2-2 on Road
2-1 at Home
21-10 (11-9)

Worst case
1-3 on Road
1-2 at Home
19-12 (9-11)

Most likely and worst case scenarios are dead on. I think the best case scenario is 2-2 on road and 3-0 at home. Granted beating Michigan State at home isn't likely but it's possible, Izzo does such a good job working over the officials that it almost neutralizes the home court advantage. Iowa really could use a big win for it's resume.


I'm sticking with my 21-10, 11-9 prediction. I think we sweep our remaining 3 home games and beat Nebby on the road. And afterwards I am asking for an RELB (raise, extension, larger buyout) ;)

Key stretch coming up: 3 games in 6 days.

Iowa now is 17-7, 7-6.

The remaining 4 road games:
Sat Feb 19, 1:30 pm, at #16 OSU
Fri Feb 25, 8 pm, Nebraska
Thur Mar 3, 8 pm, Michigan
Sun Mar 6, 6:30 pm, #13 Illinois


The remaining 3 home games:

Thur Feb 17, 6 pm, Michigan
Tues Feb 22, 6 pm, #17 Michigan State
Mon Feb 28, 8 pm, Northwestern
 
As of FEBRUARY 15, 6:00 am CT:


Iowa State has fallen to LAST 4 IN/play in game status.

Michigan is part of the FIRST 4 OUT.

Rutgers is part of the NEXT 4 OUT. @MrsScrew

Joe Lunardi has #7 Iowa vs #10 Wake Forest with the winner getting #2 Kansas or #15 Long Beach State.

He continues to have these 7 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Illinois
4 Wisconsin
5 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
7 IOWA
9 Indiana



Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 110 brackets, has IOWA as a 8 Seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


The Full ESPN Bracket:


 
Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

He has the 7 B1G teams in the Tournament that Joe Lunardi of ESPN does PLUS Rutgers.

NOTE that Michigan, who we play TWICE YET, is part of his FIRST 4 OUT.


The 8 B1G teams he has in the NCAA Tournament:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
9 IOWA
11 Indiana
12 Rutgers (Last 4 In/Play in game) @MrsScrew


His Full Bracket:

FLqFWZeUcAAJcBK




FLqHfE3VgAIpGWp




FLqG1k8VQAEkxUf
 
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated last night, Feb 15, 2022, at 11:06 PM CT.

The same 7 B1G teams continue to show up.

In addition:

* Rutgers, as you can see below, is knocking on the door & is part of the First 4 OUT.@MrsScrew

* Michigan, who we play twice yet, is part of the NEXT 4 OUT. They will be HIGHLY MOTIVATED to come into Iowa City tomorrow & steal a win.

Shelby continues to have #10 IOWA (17-7) vs #7 UConn (17-7) with the winner playing the winner of #2 Duke (22-4) vs #15 Appalachian State (16-11). @Hawksfor3


The 7 B1G teams that he has in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
10 IOWA
11 Indiana


Last 4 IN - Belmont, Creighton, SMU, Memphis

First 4 OUT - Rutgers, Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia

Next 4 OUT - San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Virginia




His Full Bracket & Analysis:

 
Iowa (0-5) and Nebraska (0-9) are the only B1G teams without a Quad 1 win.

Iowa is #19 & Nebraska is #175 in the NET rankings.


Here are the Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 15, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4


109PurdueBig Ten22-44-34-014-17-34-14-07-0
1313IllinoisBig Ten18-65-32-111-25-45-24-04-0
1717Ohio St.Big Ten16-64-51-111-04-43-26-03-0
1919IowaBig Ten17-73-51-013-20-55-24-08-0
2123WisconsinBig Ten20-57-23-010-39-33-14-14-0
2724Michigan St.Big Ten18-75-33-210-24-45-35-04-0
3636MichiganBig Ten13-103-62-18-32-63-34-14-0
4541IndianaBig Ten16-92-61-013-32-62-34-08-0
6665NorthwesternBig Ten11-113-51-17-51-92-02-26-0
8181RutgersBig Ten15-93-70-012-25-32-32-26-1
8693Penn St.Big Ten10-121-71-18-43-81-32-14-0
10099MarylandBig Ten11-142-52-17-82-84-31-34-0
10396MinnesotaBig Ten12-113-62-07-52-100-05-15-0
175176NebraskaBig Ten7-180-70-17-100-90-72-15-1
 
Is it a must win for Iowa or Michigan tomorrow?


IOWA, #19 in the NET
0-5: Quad 1
5-2: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
8-0: Quad 4
..........................................
17-7 Overall Record
==================


Michigan, #36 in the NET
2-6: Quad 1
3-3: Quad 2
4-1: Quad 3
4-0: Quad 4
..........................................
13-10 Overall Record
==================
 
Rutgers should probably be in. They would give a lot of teams on those list trouble in the tournament.


#12 Illinois is at Rutgers tonight; 6 pm CT on BTN. @MrsScrew, another big game; hope you will be there!


Rutgers, #81 in the NET
5-3: Quad 1
2-3: Quad 2
2-2: Quad 3
6-1: Quad 4
..........................................
15-9 Overall Record
==================

Illinois, #13 in the NET
5-4: Quad 1
5-2: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
4-0: Quad 4
..........................................
18-6 Overall Record
==================
 
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Key stretch coming up: 3 games in 6 days.

Iowa now is 17-7, 7-6.

IOWA, #19 in the NET
0-5: Quad 1
5-2: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
8-0: Quad 4
..........................................
17-7 Overall Record
==================

The remaining 4 road games:
Sat Feb 19, 1:30 pm, at #18 OSU
Fri Feb 25, 8 pm, Nebraska
Thur Mar 3, 8 pm, Michigan
Sun Mar 6, 6:30 pm, #12 Illinois


The remaining 3 home games:
Thur Feb 17, 6 pm, Michigan
Tues Feb 22, 6 pm, #19 Michigan State
Mon Feb 28, 8 pm, Northwestern


For subscribers:

 
#12 Illinois is at Rutgers tonight; 6 pm CT on BTN. @MrsScrew, another big game; hope you will be there!


Rutgers, #81 in the NET
5-3: Quad 1
2-3: Quad 2
2-2: Quad 3
6-1: Quad 4
..........................................
15-9 Overall Record
==================

Illinois, #13 in the NET
5-4: Quad 1
5-2: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
4-0: Quad 4
..........................................
18-6 Overall Record
==================

leaving work at 3:45. Picking up my ticketmate at 4:30. Dinner reservation on campus at the Rutgers Club at 5pm. On line to get into the stadium by 6:20. Standing for the anthem at 6:55pm
It's a black out game so all appropriate attire is being worn.
RU giving out black rally towels to all fans and black tee shirts to the students
Looks like less than 250 tix available on Stub Hub

, tonight is going to be

ZWc.jpeg
 
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated last night, Feb 15, 2022, at 11:06 PM CT.

The same 7 B1G teams continue to show up.

In addition:

* Rutgers, as you can see below, is knocking on the door & is part of the First 4 OUT.@MrsScrew

* Michigan, who we play twice yet, is part of the NEXT 4 OUT. They will be HIGHLY MOTIVATED to come into Iowa City tomorrow & steal a win.

Shelby continues to have #10 IOWA (17-7) vs #7 UConn (17-7) with the winner playing the winner of #2 Duke (22-4) vs #15 Appalachian State (16-11). @Hawksfor3


The 7 B1G teams that he has in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
10 IOWA
11 Indiana


Last 4 IN - Belmont, Creighton, SMU, Memphis

First 4 OUT - Rutgers, Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia

Next 4 OUT - San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Virginia




His Full Bracket & Analysis:

Was just to say WHAT....Iowa a #10 seed then I saw he makes this based on Selection Sunday, not today. That could happen although Iowa would really have to struggle to fall 3 seed lines IMO however just keep winning!
 
leaving work at 3:45. Picking up my ticketmate at 4:30. Dinner reservation on campus at the Rutgers Club at 5pm. On line to get into the stadium by 6:20. Standing for the anthem at 6:55pm
It's a black out game so all appropriate attire is being worn.
RU giving out black rally towels to all fans and black tee shirts to the students
Looks like less than 250 tix available on Stub Hub

, tonight is going to be

ZWc.jpeg
With a win tonight, Rutgers would definitely be on the right side of the bubble...
 
Was just to say WHAT....Iowa a #10 seed then I saw he makes this based on Selection Sunday, not today. That could happen although Iowa would really have to struggle to fall 3 seed lines IMO however just keep winning!

Actually, his projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

So, right now, he sees Iowa as a 10 seed.

Iowa is a tough one to figure out. Some bracketologists have Iowa as high as 7, some as low as 10, with an average around the 8/9 line.

And I can kinda understand why; we are 0-5 in Quad 1 games and we went 10-1 vs one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country.
 
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Rutgers should probably be in. They would give a lot of teams on those list trouble in the tournament.

I agree, what's dragging them down are 2 Quad 3 losses (Maryland & UMass) and the loss to Lafayette (Quad 4). But they are 4-4 against Quad 1 opponents, 4 more wins than what Iowa has.
 
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leaving work at 3:45. Picking up my ticketmate at 4:30. Dinner reservation on campus at the Rutgers Club at 5pm. On line to get into the stadium by 6:20. Standing for the anthem at 6:55pm
It's a black out game so all appropriate attire is being worn.
RU giving out black rally towels to all fans and black tee shirts to the students
Looks like less than 250 tix available on Stub Hub

, tonight is going to be

ZWc.jpeg


have fun tonight

Beat the Illini!!!
 
Actually, his projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

So, right now, he sees Iowa as a 10 seed.

Iowa is a tough one to figure out. Some bracketologists have Iowa as high as 7, some as low as 10, with an average around the 8/9 line.

And I can kinda understand why; we are 0-5 in Quad 1 games and we went 10-1 vs one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country.
The good news? We should be dancing and I'll get to hear that glorious CBS intro/outro music again...which we sorely missed during the Lick era and first few years of Fran ball.
 
The good news? We should be dancing and I'll get to hear that glorious CBS intro/outro music again...which we sorely missed during the Lick era and first few years of Fran ball.

And the majority of the Alford era as well.

I definitely am peeved about the Sweet 16 drought, but being in the dance is far better than the alternative.
 
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Iowa has somehow managed to find an optimal navigation of the NET rankings criteria relative to their schedule.

Somehow they are #19 despite being 0-5 in quad 1, which is the worst quad 1 record of any top 30 NET team. Only Houston seems to have done less relative to their ranking as they are #6 NET despite being 0-3 in quad 1.

By the eye test their best wins are over mediocre virginia and indy teams.

They're getting the most out of what they've done according to the NET, which is good news since that's the foundation for tourney selection.
I think it does point out, though, that the NET ratings have issues(just like every other rating system) that can be picked at when examples like this pop up.
 
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leaving work at 3:45. Picking up my ticketmate at 4:30. Dinner reservation on campus at the Rutgers Club at 5pm. On line to get into the stadium by 6:20. Standing for the anthem at 6:55pm
It's a black out game so all appropriate attire is being worn.
RU giving out black rally towels to all fans and black tee shirts to the students
Looks like less than 250 tix available on Stub Hub

, tonight is going to be

ZWc.jpeg



Someone is insanely happy!

Pics? ;)

Congrats!!
 
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Iona is in 1st place in the MAAC. They are 3 games ahead of Siena who is in 2nd place alone. They have a 75 NET and a Quad 1 win. If they win their conference tourney they'll be in lol.
 
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Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

He has the 7 B1G teams in the Tournament that Joe Lunardi of ESPN does PLUS Rutgers.

NOTE that Michigan, who we play TWICE YET, is part of his FIRST 4 OUT.


The 8 B1G teams he has in the NCAA Tournament:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
9 IOWA
11 Indiana
12 Rutgers (Last 4 In/Play in game) @MrsScrew


His Full Bracket:

FLqFWZeUcAAJcBK




FLqHfE3VgAIpGWp




FLqG1k8VQAEkxUf
based on that field...

Iowa is 2-8 vs. tourney teams (projected based on beating MSU at home and losing to OSU)
 
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Iowa has somehow managed to find an optimal navigation of the NET rankings criteria relative to their schedule.

Somehow they are #19 despite being 0-5 in quad 1, which is the worst quad 1 record of any top 30 NET team. Only Houston seems to have done less relative to their ranking as they are #6 NET despite being 0-3 in quad 1.

By the eye test their best wins are over mediocre virginia and indy teams.

They're getting the most out of what they've done according to the NET, which is good news since that's the foundation for tourney selection.
I think it does point out, though, that the NET ratings have issues(just like every other rating system) that can be picked at when examples like this pop up.


very fair points
 
https://heatcheckcbb.com/bracketolo...metrics-in-ncaa-tournament-selection-seeding/

tldr - Quality metrics are more important than resume to the committee for teams not on the bubble.

For teams on the bubble, it's more important to have good resume metrics.

Small sample size with only 2 years of new NET system though.

KenPom has us ranked #18 right now.

IF we go into a tail spin and fall on to the bubble, will our #329 (out of 358 teams) non conference strength of schedule come back and bite us in the butt? After all, 10 of our 17 overall wins came from that weak nonconference schedule.

There are no right or wrong answers; just curious what you and others think.
 
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated last night, Feb 16, 2022, at 11:48 PM CT.

The same 7 B1G teams continue to show up; however, he now has added Rutgers to the Tournament field. @MrsScrew

In addition:

* Michigan, who we play twice yet, is part of the NEXT 4 OUT. They will be HIGHLY MOTIVATED to come into Iowa City tonight & steal a win.

Shelby continues to have #10 IOWA (17-7) vs #7 UConn (18-7) with the winner playing the winner of #2 Duke (22-4) vs #15 Appalachian State (16-11). @Hawksfor3


The 8 B1G teams that he has in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
10 IOWA
11 Rutgers
11 Indiana


Last 4 IN - Belmont, Creighton, Memphis, Kansas State

First 4 OUT - SMU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, West Virginia

Next 4 OUT - San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Virginia




His Full Bracket & Analysis:

 
Michigan is looking to steal a road win tonight. Iowa and Nebraska continue to be the only B1G teams without a Quad 1 win.

Current Quad 1 Records:
6-3: Rutgers @MrsScrew
2-6: Indiana
2-7: Michigan
0-6: IOWA
.........
0-10: Nebraska


Here are the Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 16, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

1010PurdueBig Ten23-45-34-014-18-44-04-07-0
1413IllinoisBig Ten18-75-42-111-25-56-23-04-0
1717Ohio St.Big Ten16-64-51-111-04-53-16-03-0
1919IowaBig Ten17-73-51-013-20-65-14-08-0
2021WisconsinBig Ten20-57-23-010-38-44-14-04-0
2727Michigan St.Big Ten18-75-33-210-24-55-25-04-0
3736MichiganBig Ten13-103-62-18-32-73-24-14-0
4445IndianaBig Ten16-92-61-013-32-62-34-08-0
6666NorthwesternBig Ten11-123-51-17-61-103-01-26-0
7581RutgersBig Ten16-93-70-013-26-32-32-26-1
8586Penn St.Big Ten10-121-71-18-43-82-31-14-0
100100MarylandBig Ten11-142-52-17-83-83-41-24-0
103103MinnesotaBig Ten12-113-62-07-52-101-04-15-0
174175NebraskaBig Ten7-180-70-17-100-100-71-06-1
 
Michigan is looking to steal a road win tonight. Iowa and Nebraska continue to be the only B1G teams without a Quad 1 win.

Current Quad 1 Records:
6-3: Rutgers @MrsScrew
2-6: Indiana
2-7: Michigan
0-6: IOWA
.........
0-10: Nebraska


Here are the Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 16, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

1010PurdueBig Ten23-45-34-014-18-44-04-07-0
1413IllinoisBig Ten18-75-42-111-25-56-23-04-0
1717Ohio St.Big Ten16-64-51-111-04-53-16-03-0
1919IowaBig Ten17-73-51-013-20-65-14-08-0
2021WisconsinBig Ten20-57-23-010-38-44-14-04-0
2727Michigan St.Big Ten18-75-33-210-24-55-25-04-0
3736MichiganBig Ten13-103-62-18-32-73-24-14-0
4445IndianaBig Ten16-92-61-013-32-62-34-08-0
6666NorthwesternBig Ten11-123-51-17-61-103-01-26-0
7581RutgersBig Ten16-93-70-013-26-32-32-26-1
8586Penn St.Big Ten10-121-71-18-43-82-31-14-0
100100MarylandBig Ten11-142-52-17-83-83-41-24-0
103103MinnesotaBig Ten12-113-62-07-52-101-04-15-0
174175NebraskaBig Ten7-180-70-17-100-100-71-06-1

75?? Good grief
 
75?? Good grief
Losing to Lafayette on your home court hurts Rutgers more than beating Purdue helps. Rutgers has a really weird NET team sheet, they are 6-3 against Quad 1 but 4-5 against Quad 2 and 3.

The reason why Iowa is rated so much higher even though we are 0-6 against Quad 1 is Iowa has zero losses against Quad 3 or 4 and is 6-1 against Quad 2. In other words Iowa is beating the teams they are supposed to beat and losing to the teams they are supposed to lose too. You do that and you'll get a high NET ranking. Rutgers is the exact opposite, they win games they shouldn't and lose games they shouldn't.
 
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Losing to Lafayette on your home court hurts Rutgers more than beating Purdue helps. Rutgers has a really weird NET team sheet, they are 6-3 against Quad 1 but 4-5 against Quad 2 and 3.

The reason why Iowa is rated so much higher even though we are 0-6 against Quad 1 is Iowa has zero losses against Quad 3 or 4 and is 6-1 against Quad 2. In other words Iowa is beating the teams they are supposed to beat and losing to the teams they are supposed to lose too. You do that and you'll get a high NET ranking. Rutgers is the exact opposite, they win games they shouldn't and lose games they shouldn't.

I think if the committee met today, Rutgers would get in.
 
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