that's the best explanation of the NET I've heard. thanks! Last week someone said that we were the most inconsistent team in the NCAA ......#truth (except for the last 2 weeks)
ESPN Bracketology, Updated MARCH 13. IOWA is a 5 Seed in CHICAGO Regional. Bracket Matrix on MARCH 13 has IOWA a 5 Seed. #14 NET Ranking on March 13
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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that's the best explanation of the NET I've heard. thanks! Last week someone said that we were the most inconsistent team in the NCAA ......#truth (except for the last 2 weeks)
I sure would hope so, honestly I think their tournament resume is better than Iowa's. How do you leave a team out that has knocked off teams like Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue?
Michigan will be trying to steal a road win tonight in Iowa City.
Michigan (#37 NET Ranking)
2-7: Quad 1
3-2: Quad 2
4-1: Quad 3
4-0: Quad 4
............................................
13-10 Overall Record
===================
IOWA (#19 NET Ranking)
0-6: Quad 1
5-1: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
8-0: Quad 4
............................................
17-7 Overall Record
===================
Michigan (#37 NET Ranking)
2-7: Quad 1
3-2: Quad 2
4-1: Quad 3
4-0: Quad 4
............................................
13-10 Overall Record
===================
IOWA (#19 NET Ranking)
0-6: Quad 1
5-1: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
8-0: Quad 4
............................................
17-7 Overall Record
===================
Tonight represents a fairly large nail to that nailing down a tournament bid for Iowa. I've been saying all along that Iowa needs 3 more wins to secure a bid into the tournament, so it's a huge game for both teams. If Iowa doesn't win tonight getting those 3 wins becomes much more challenging.
That one hurt, Fran. I know a lot of bracketologists have Iowa solidly in but I disagree. I have them on the 10 line, sliding toward an 11. They could get shuffled out unless they beat a team with a pulse.
as you know, I have been worried for a while now about our nonconference strength of schedule. coming into today, our nonconference schedule was ranked #329 out of 358 teams.
Also, coming into today, Shelby Mast of USA Today agreed w/ you; he had us as a 10 seed.
Two wins against Power conference teams with a record above .500. Indiana and Virginia
7 conference wins against the bottom of the conference. Going to be interesting to see where they are projected if they lose on Saturday.
Michigan State is a game that can be won at home, might be the best chance for a Quad 1 win
7 conference wins against the bottom of the conference. Going to be interesting to see where they are projected if they lose on Saturday.
Michigan State is a game that can be won at home, might be the best chance for a Quad 1 win
I am firmly convinced that Iowa needs at lease one Q1 win in order to make the tournament. The NCSOS is poor and just getting to 20 wins, like back in the 90’s, just doesn’t cut it. The committee will send a message that quality wins matter and a really crappy NCOS won’t be tolerated.
Bracketmatrix has Iowa as an 8. Way, way too high. They are now an 11 in my mind with some work left to do.
Bracketmatrix has Iowa as an 8. Way, way too high. They are now an 11 in my mind with some work left to do.
Iowa is this year’s version of 2019 NC State. NC State has a horrible NCOS and had the following resume:
Q1 3-9
Q2 5-0
Q3 5-2
Q4 10-0
NIT
Q1 3-9
Q2 5-0
Q3 5-2
Q4 10-0
NIT
Whatever Joe Lunardi is smoking, it can't be good for his health.
As of FEBRUARY 18, 6:00 am CT:
Iowa State & Rutgers get one of the LAST 4 BYES. @MrsScrew
Michigan is part of the LAST 4 IN (Play in game).
Joe Lunardi has #7 Iowa vs #10 TCU with the winner getting #2 Kentucky or #15 Colgate.
He now has these 9 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
4 Illinois
4 Wisconsin
5 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
7 IOWA
10 Indiana
11 Rutgers (LAST 4 BYES)
11 Michigan LAST 4 IN (Play in game)
Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 115 brackets, has IOWA as a 8 Seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
The Full ESPN Bracket:
As of FEBRUARY 18, 6:00 am CT:
Iowa State & Rutgers get one of the LAST 4 BYES. @MrsScrew
Michigan is part of the LAST 4 IN (Play in game).
Joe Lunardi has #7 Iowa vs #10 TCU with the winner getting #2 Kentucky or #15 Colgate.
He now has these 9 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
4 Illinois
4 Wisconsin
5 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
7 IOWA
10 Indiana
11 Rutgers (LAST 4 BYES)
11 Michigan LAST 4 IN (Play in game)
Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 115 brackets, has IOWA as a 8 Seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
The Full ESPN Bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the Fighting Illini pulled off a surprise reboot
No one expected much from Illinois this year. But the Illini could have a shot at a No. 1 seed.
www.espn.com
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He’s being lazy, using NET as an absolute instead of a guide. Maybe start at a 7 or 8 and then subtract for NCSOS and lack of Q1 wins.
Iowa's nonconference schedule rank (per KenPom): #329 out of 358 teams.
IOWA (#21 NET Ranking on Feb 18)
0-6: Quad 1
5-2: Quad 2
4-0: Quad 3
8-0: Quad 4
............................................
17-8 Overall Record
===================
Iowa and Nebraska continue to be the only B1G teams without a Quad 1 win.
Current Quad 1 Records:
6-3: Rutgers @MrsScrew
3-7: Michigan
2-6: Indiana
0-6: IOWA
.........
0-10: Nebraska
Here are the Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 17, 2022 Games:
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
| 10 | 10 | Purdue | Big Ten | 23-4 | 5-3 | 4-0 | 14-1 | 8-4 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 7-0 |
| 14 | 14 | Illinois | Big Ten | 18-7 | 5-4 | 2-1 | 11-2 | 5-5 | 6-2 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| 17 | 17 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 16-6 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 11-0 | 4-5 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| 19 | 20 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 20-5 | 7-2 | 3-0 | 10-3 | 8-4 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| 21 | 19 | Iowa | Big Ten | 17-8 | 3-5 | 1-0 | 13-3 | 0-6 | 5-2 | 4-0 | 8-0 |
| 27 | 27 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 18-7 | 5-3 | 3-2 | 10-2 | 4-5 | 5-2 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| 31 | 37 | Michigan | Big Ten | 14-10 | 4-6 | 2-1 | 8-3 | 3-7 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| 44 | 44 | Indiana | Big Ten | 16-9 | 2-6 | 1-0 | 13-3 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 8-0 |
| 65 | 66 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 11-12 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 7-6 | 1-10 | 3-0 | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| 74 | 75 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 16-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 13-2 | 6-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6-1 |
| 80 | 85 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 11-12 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 9-4 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| 100 | 100 | Maryland | Big Ten | 11-14 | 2-5 | 2-1 | 7-8 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| 107 | 103 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 12-12 | 3-7 | 2-0 | 7-5 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| 171 | 174 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 7-18 | 0-7 | 0-1 | 7-10 | 0-10 | 0-7 | 2-0 | 5-1 |
Not looking good this morning! Dave Ommen dropped Iowa to 37!on the seed line. 11 in USA Today, probably out in Palms.
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.
On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.
His bracket was last updated early this morning, Feb 18, 2022, at 12:32 AM CT.
The same 8 B1G teams continue to show up.
In addition:
* Michigan, who we play ONE MORE TIME, is part of the FIRST 4 OUT. They were HIGHLY MOTIVATED last night and came into Iowa City & stole a win.
Shelby now has #11 IOWA (17-8) vs #6 LSU (19-7) with the winner playing the winner of #3 Villanova (20-6) vs #14 Vermont (21-5). @Hawksfor3
The 8 B1G teams that he has in:
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
11 Rutgers............. @MrsScrew
11 IOWA
11 Indiana
Last 4 IN - Creighton, Belmont, Memphis, Kansas State
First 4 OUT - Michigan, SMU, North Carolina, Oklahoma
Next 4 OUT - West Virginia, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Virginia
His Full Bracket & Analysis:
bracketwag.com
On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.
His bracket was last updated early this morning, Feb 18, 2022, at 12:32 AM CT.
The same 8 B1G teams continue to show up.
In addition:
* Michigan, who we play ONE MORE TIME, is part of the FIRST 4 OUT. They were HIGHLY MOTIVATED last night and came into Iowa City & stole a win.
Shelby now has #11 IOWA (17-8) vs #6 LSU (19-7) with the winner playing the winner of #3 Villanova (20-6) vs #14 Vermont (21-5). @Hawksfor3
The 8 B1G teams that he has in:
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
11 Rutgers............. @MrsScrew
11 IOWA
11 Indiana
Last 4 IN - Creighton, Belmont, Memphis, Kansas State
First 4 OUT - Michigan, SMU, North Carolina, Oklahoma
Next 4 OUT - West Virginia, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Virginia
His Full Bracket & Analysis:
Shelby's Bracket WAG
Their NET was 32. The ACC was rated 3rd that year, same as the B1G this year. The Q3 losses were huge, much the same as having 0 Q1 wins. Iowa needs some good wins
I found this Yahoo story after NC State was snubbed in 2019. Here are some excerpts:
NC State ranked 33rd in the NET rankings. the Wolfpack didn’t even make the first four out.
NC State had the 353rd-ranked non-conference strength of schedule. There are 353 teams in Division I.
Facing the easiest non-conference slate in the country, NC State went 12-1 with wins over Auburn and Penn State and a loss to Wisconsin. It played 9 non-conference games against teams outside of the NET’s top 200.
NC State would eventually finish with a 22-11 overall record and the 178th-ranked overall schedule because it went through the ACC gauntlet, where it placed eighth.
There might be a fair counter-argument that NC State didn’t go out of its way to schedule cupcakes, it merely scheduled teams hoping they’d be competitive that turned out to be walkovers. Sure.
However, intent or not from the Wolfpack, allowing them into the tournament would have been a signal to ever program that boosting your NET by scheduling soft is a viable path to the tournament. And even if they actually did schedule the nation’s softest non-con schedule by accident, the best way to remedy that would have been to post quality wins in conference play. They did not do that....
the Wolfpack argued that they had an 8-9 record in games against quadrant 1 and 2 teams in the NET rankings. That is a comically skewed way to imply NC State was competitive with college basketball’s top teams.
Put it this way: NC State was 5-0 against Q2 teams. Against Q1 teams, NC State was 3-9. Against top 30 teams, it was 1-9, with one loss featuring the Wolfpack scoring 24 points. Taking care of business against lower opponents and avoiding bad losses is certainly a point in the Wolfpack’s favor, but they didn’t really accomplish the flip-side of that: quality wins.
NC State’s sole top-30 win was over Auburn, one of two tournament teams that NC State beat, the other being Syracuse. The two teams are a No. 5 seed and a No. 8 seed, respectively.
So NC State played as few games against quality opponents as possible, finished in the middle of the pack in their conference and beat all of two teams the committee considered March-worthy along the way. And they’re wondering why they’re now a 2-seed in the NIT?
The full story:
NC State, which had nation's softest non-conference schedule, is mad it missed NCAA tournament
If only there was some way NC State could have improved its NCAA Tournament resume.
And yet even they still had quad 1 wins. That's the part that I think is so far askew with the NET. A team with zero quad 1(meaning good)wins should be at a relatively low baseline as a starting point.
It's just bizarre that when it comes to Iowa's projected seed:
* Some have us as high as a 7
* Bracket matrix (combines 115 brackets) has us at an 8
* Others have us as low as an 11
Think about it this way. Iowa benefits the least by being rated so high, as seen in the NC State example. Iowa’s opponents benefit because they get a Q1 win. The committee isn’t beholden to choose a team because of their NET. Making the field and seeding is based on wins against quality opponents.
The 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds will be revealed tomorrow (the top 16 teams).
The B1G could have 5 of the 16: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State
History has shown that the teams that establish themselves as the best teams by mid-February are likely still to be there by mid-March. Of the 16 that were No. 1 seeds in the four prior Bracket Reveals, 12 – or 75 percent – were No. 1s in the final bracket. The last three champions -- Baylor 2021, Virginia 2019 and Villanova 2018 -- we're No. 1 seeds in the Bracket Reveal. North Carolina 2017 was a No. 2 seed in the reveal but rose to a No. 1 by Selection Sunday.
Good story here:
The B1G could have 5 of the 16: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State
History has shown that the teams that establish themselves as the best teams by mid-February are likely still to be there by mid-March. Of the 16 that were No. 1 seeds in the four prior Bracket Reveals, 12 – or 75 percent – were No. 1s in the final bracket. The last three champions -- Baylor 2021, Virginia 2019 and Villanova 2018 -- we're No. 1 seeds in the Bracket Reveal. North Carolina 2017 was a No. 2 seed in the reveal but rose to a No. 1 by Selection Sunday.
Good story here:
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I follow the John Gasaway model and focus on SOR. Iowa is 44th there now. A low 11 seed. A 3-3 finish leaves us with only one win that would move the needle. So Iowa would be locked into a SOR in the mid 40’s.
If Iowa is on the bubble, they will send a message that Iowa’s scheduling is unacceptable for an at large team. I will stick with my original thinking from earlier in the year that 10-10 will not cut it. They will need to steal a road win or do work in the B1G tournament.
If Iowa is on the bubble, they will send a message that Iowa’s scheduling is unacceptable for an at large team. I will stick with my original thinking from earlier in the year that 10-10 will not cut it. They will need to steal a road win or do work in the B1G tournament.
A lot of people on here thought Iowa simply needed to get to 10-10 in the conference, which would get them to 20-11 overall. I kept saying that who you beat and where you beat them mattered.
When you look at Iowa's 10-1 nonconference record: it's ranked by KenPom as one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country (#329 out of 358 teams).
And Iowa's 7-7 conference record, who did they beat and where did they beat them? Well, this is not impressive, either.
NET Ranking/Team
#171 Nebraska
#107 AT Minnesota
#107 Minnesota
#100 Maryland
#100 AT Maryland
#80 Penn State
#44 Indiana
Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.
He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.
NOTE that Michigan, who we play ONE MORE TIME YET, is part of his FIRST 4 OUT.
The 8 B1G teams he has in the NCAA Tournament:
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
10 IOWA
11 Rutgers........... @MrsScrew
12 Indiana
His Full Bracket:
He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.
NOTE that Michigan, who we play ONE MORE TIME YET, is part of his FIRST 4 OUT.
The 8 B1G teams he has in the NCAA Tournament:
Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan State
10 IOWA
11 Rutgers........... @MrsScrew
12 Indiana
His Full Bracket:
Ironically, our non conference wins at Virginia and neutral court Utah State are probably our best wins. Still 4 opportunities for good wins.
True but now do the last four teams in.. not much meat on the bone there either
