Trump leads Harris by 2-3 percentage points when JFKjr is included (he is n the FL ballot as the Reform Party candidate) and that lead is roughly half of what was Trump’s lead over Biden.
In addition? there are several important factors which should favor Dems in Florida this cycle. Abortion access, marijuana legalization, other ballot issues. Field operation superiority, cash advantage.
Florida has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in America. Constitutional Amendment 4 [Abortion Access] has been ballot certified As we know from prior successful state ballot measures (Kansas, Ohio, and Kentucky, e.g) this measure will drive massive number of pro-abortion voters ( including new voters) to the polls. Pro-abortion is undefeated at the polls since 2022.
Florida is at best “Lean Republican”. In 2020, Incumbent Trump beat Biden by only 3.5 %points.
It’s a toss up with Harris.