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GDP -1.4 %

Down 130 points right now. 30830.



Anyone care to enlighten me on what "fed minutes" are?

‘It is dialogue or a light transcript from the previous meeting prior to the .75% rate hike. I guess it gives fed watchers a little more insight into how the other members of the board/committee might be feeling about the broader economy, inflation, policy, etc…..
 
Dow up 350 to 31385
We really need to get back up to 34,000 and stay in that range for awhile. We aren't going anywhere until fuel prices go down at least a dollar, which will help lower inflation. GDP needs to be positive to catch up with the expanded money supply.
 
Down 130 points right now. 30830.



Anyone care to enlighten me on what "fed minutes" are?
The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.

FOMC minutes can be viewed on the Board's website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
 
S&P is now green on the day. This feels a little like the bottom of March 2020 when there was bad news and the stocks still gained. Hopefully getting close to the bottom.
 
S&P is now green on the day. This feels a little like the bottom of March 2020 when there was bad news and the stocks still gained. Hopefully getting close to the bottom.
20+ year treasury bonds (TLT) are way up on the day to. The market doesn't seem to believe the inflation story will last, probably a recession incoming instead.
 
This changing words bullshit is dumb. I'm old enough to remember when a vaccine was a vaccine.
Obvious ‘fear mongering’ from the Federal Reserve:

Both the Dallas Fed and Chicago Fed dropped some truth bombs in their surveys of local and national (respectively) economic activity.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Level of General Business Activity tumbled further in July, dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected)...dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected)...dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected)...




New Orders and Inventories were the biggest driver of the further weakness, and CapEx fell for the 4th straight month, but it is the comments from survey respondents to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey that paint a truer picture than a single headline data point... (emphasis ours)

  • The concerns of a looming recession have increased over the last month. With supply-chain issues continuing, the cost of raw materials remaining high and significant interest rate hikes, overall business activity has to slow. It is just a matter of when—which I believe is soon.
  • The economy is in shambles. There’s no way out that isn’t bad.
  • The building and construction market customers we supply are seeing a slowdown in activity.
  • November can't get here fast enough.
  • We are starting to see weakness in incoming orders. We are preparing for a further slowdown but hoping for the best.
Shifting from local pain to national pain, The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index signaled a second straight month of contraction in June (first time since early 2020). The smoothed index dropped into negative territory for the first time since May 2020.

The index utilizes 85 individual indicators covering four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. In June, 41 of the 85 made a positive contribution while 44 made negative contributions.






Production-related indicators weighed on the overall index in June. The personal consumption and housing category was also negative.

Meanwhile
, the sales, orders, and inventories category, as well as the employment-related indicators, made a slight positive contribution.

Finally, we note that it could be worse... here's Chinese Consumer Confidence...



Source: Bloomberg

Which is plunging even faster than Biden's approval rating...

 
There is a technical definition, two straight quarters of negative economic growth. They clearly believe that is likely to come to pass later this week. They’re trying to prebut it…

At the same time, we have these terms for a reason. You don’t have to like it. Joe Biden’s handling of the economy was at 25% or 30% in the most recent poll. It’s a problem for them, this adds to the problem, but you don’t get to change the nomenclature in the middle of a campaign because it doesn’t work for you.



 
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Reactions: SWIowahawks
There is a technical definition, two straight quarters of negative economic growth. They clearly believe that is likely to come to pass later this week. They’re trying to prebut it…

At the same time, we have these terms for a reason. You don’t have to like it. Joe Biden’s handling of the economy was at 25% or 30% in the most recent poll. It’s a problem for them, this adds to the problem, but you don’t get to change the nomenclature in the middle of a campaign because it doesn’t work for you.



The definition of a recession being 2 quarters of negative GDP is simplistic at best.

In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold. For information on recession, or business-cycle, dating, see: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html.
 
The definition of a recession being 2 quarters of negative GDP is simplistic at best.

In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold. For information on recession, or business-cycle, dating, see: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html.
That's convenient :)
 
Do you concur with Yellen?

“I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.”
That she would be amazed? I guess so. I have no reason to believe she is lying about her position.
 
The official definition and the simple definition both make sense to me. I think the one thing that may help is the income. I know a lot of people that are taking different jobs to increase salary.

Even if we aren't in a real recession, you will see others with an opposing view saying it is real.
 
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