GDP -1.4 %
- Thread starter SIXERS24
- Start date
As I am not an expert I would certainly defer to her definition as well as many other experts. You would be wise to take the same course for so many things.
I’m aware of the quality of your opinion.
Do you concur with her, or not?
Too scared to offer an opinion is also an acceptable response.
Smart enough to know my limitations. Wish you could say the same.
Are you actually suggesting your opinion is of higher quality than Janet Yellen? It wouldn't surprise me. The ignorant are often most ignorant about themselves.
Unemployment low. Manufacturing jobs back to pre-pandemic levels (which, when layoffs occur a recession is likely).
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was 1.5% for the first quarter of 2022. This growth continues the recovery from the 2020 second-quarter rate of -31.2%, the worst contraction in U.S. history.
Durable goods also up about 7%.
Cons and dipshits like @seminole97 are always looking the bad side of things. They're worthless when they can't be negative.
You might want to check your GDP growth number for Q1 2022. Not only was it negative, it was also revised downward.
Unemployment percentage is a worthless number outside the context of Labor Participation Rate.
The labor force participation rate in the US edged down to 62.2 percent in June of 2022 from 62.3 percent in May. The share of the population that is working or looking for work remains 1.2 percentage points below their February 2020 values, as Americans that left work during the pandemic are coming back slowly due in part due to childcare and early retirement. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Participation Rate was above 62.5% since 2016, and reached 63.4% just before the pandemic.Yellen undoubtedly has expertise. Yellen has access to all significant data. That said, why was Yellen so wrong about inflation? How much of Yellen's opinion is based on desired political narrative compared to reality? If Yellen were taking a college exam, and the question was about inflation, what score would she have gotten? What score would Seminole97 have gotten.
Obama had 8 years to install the swamp. She is one of them. The FBI & DOJ were even compromised.
TOM BEVAN: Look, this is an issue that the Biden administration knows is political poison for them. They really have been doing it with that for months now. They've not come up with anything that is acceptable the government is sticking with. The White House press secretary sat at the podium the other day, America's stronger economically than we have been and our entire history. She is either not very smart or she is gaslighting in the public. That is not the reality people are facing. The Biden administration is not come up with any concrete plans on how to deal with this. That is the number one issue on the minds of Americans by far, by orders of magnitude, over anything else even abortion, even guns, according to a poll that came out earlier this week.
Democrats warn Fed’s rate hikes may trigger recession
Senate Democrats are calling on the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously on raising interest rates when board members meet this week, warning that fighting inflation too aggressively could hurt th…
thehill.com
Senate Democrats need to rein in excess spending until GDP catches up, which will take a few years. Fed Chairman Powell needs to talk about Labor Participation Rate when talking about employment.
0.75% is less than the expected 1%, and the markets reacted accordingly.
0.75% is less than the expected 1%, and the markets reacted accordingly.
@joelbc1 will be along shortly to tell us how ignoble it is for Democrats to use their bully pulpit and browbeat the Fed on policy…Democrats warn Fed’s rate hikes may trigger recession
Senate Democrats are calling on the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously on raising interest rates when board members meet this week, warning that fighting inflation too aggressively could hurt th…
Interestingly, full-cycle rate-hike expectations have actually slipped dovishly (although they spiked pre-FOMC on the WSJ leak), and subsequent rate-cut expectations have soared (to almost 5 rate-cuts now)...
Source: Bloomberg
The odds of a 100bps hike today have crashed in the last two weeks and the odds of a 75bps hike in September have also tumbled. Dec 2022 now has a mere 50% chance of a 25bps hike priced in...
Source: Bloomberg
The market is now dramatically more dovish than The Fed's latest dotplot...
Source: Bloomberg
Umm, 0.75% was pretty much the expectation for days leading up to this.
The markets didn't think so, or else performance over the last week, and then again today, would have been different. Equity markets are all about expectations.
It is time to RAISE rates....I don't care. Dems bear some responsibility for this mess too. No one wants a recession....but it is time. However, the "numbers" are still decent as this whole thing is rather unique situation.
Trump should have shut up 3 - 4 years ago and let the Fed do what needed to be done. But then, Donald always knows best. Just ask him.
It was the expectation since last rate hike. There was some scuttlebutt of 100 basis points but that obviously didn’t happen.
Yep. This is a pretty easy one to debunk. Linked here
The July 14-20 Reuters poll found 98 of 102 economists expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points at the end of the July 26-27 meeting to 2.25%-2.50%. The remaining four said they expected a 100 basis point hike.
Yes, they jumped dramatically after the Fed announcement. Most of the talking heads on the business shows were expecting a 1% bump in interest rates. Had the bump been 1%, I think the Dow would have jump about 200 points. Instead the rate was 0.75%, which caused the Dow to jump over 600 points. It's a small point, but expectations are built into daily movement. Any large movement, one way or another, is because expectations are different from breaking news.
Hmm. As I posted above, almost everyone else expected a 0.75% raise. And the few articles I read the day before on WSJ and NYT both echoed the same thoughts.
It sucks that we live in an age where so called experts have to hope the massive amount of information being spewed daily drowns out their previously recorded pronouncements.
What sucks Finance is the political need to lie and bend the truth so we can blame one man/ one party for all the economic woes our nation suffers when the fact of the matter is the “reasons” for the current e o o ic mess lies well beyond our nation’s leaders and shores.
When was the last time the world faced a recession because its supply chain is broken....for whTever reason? The primary reason we in the US are where we are is because of stuff beyond our control. Figure out a way to have Red China bed the lock-up of their peopleand figure out a way for Russi to stop their Ukraine incursion and we may well be on our way to ending this round of inflation. But then you and yours will have to back off Biden and the Democrats, which would be uncomfortable for you all.
You have a very partisan view. Democrats added nearly $3T in spending post Trump. Biden's policies drove up energy prices well before Putin invaded Ukraine. The California supply chain issues aren't on Biden, but they are arguably on Newsome because of his COVID restrictions. Both parties shut down businesses early in the pandemic. The red state governors opened things back up much faster, and discontinued excess unemployment payments much faster. Bottom line is bad energy policy and excess spending got us here. Biden has played a major role in both.
Oooooo that one might stick for the right. That’s some good politics, I wonder how long they had that in the chamber?
I am glad Finance you have identified the problem! LOL
Again....the vast majority of the "supply problem" is NOT in the US but lies overseas in Asia and Red China. BUT, blame Newsome if it makes you feel more Republican! Because "we" know this is a Democrat problem! Those goddamned Asian/Red Chinese Democrats have always been a real problem! If you think Nerwsome and "Blue States" were restrictive with their Covid "shutdowns"........please don't visit or do business in Asia or Red phuquin China! But feel free to spite and blame the Dems for all of Am,erica's economic problems......
Off to a really good start today, too. S&P up 1%. Looks like the markets aren't too worried about a potential recession at the moment.
I place blame where it's deserved. In this case there's overwhelming evidence of where the bulk of the blame is deserved.
https://www.politifact.com/factchec...rnias-trucking-regulations-may-have-had-impa/
It's absolutely true that production of some goods in China was affected by COVID. There's no denying that. It's disingenuous to deflect blame for things that are otherwise controllable.
While GDP remains negative, the retraction was less in Q2 than Q1 which means production is getting a little better. Less than 1% essentially means we are treading water and not drowning. As I said in another post, I believe we meet technical definition of a recession, I believe it's mild and, barring more reckless government spending, we should be back to 0 or positive growth in Q3. I'm a little more optimistic than I was about equity markets, though there will actually be some competition for investment money from bond markets for the first time in a long time.
You have a pretty good instinct. I enjoy your posts and learn from your perspective.
That is because Wall Street is where the smart money is. They know when the worst has been seen way before you and I do. That is why trying to time the bottom is a fruitless endeavor.
Take the Great Recession as a prime example of this. March 9, 2009 was the bottom of the market and when things started to trend back up. By mid may, the markets were up 30% off their lows and almost 50% by July. We didn’t post a positive gdp number until 4th quarter 2009, which of course wasn’t even reported until January 2010. 2009 q2 gdp was -3.2%. Q3 was -4% all the while the market was up 50%. Yeah. Good luck trying to time the market.
