As in so many games, it's determined by special teams...and ISU is horrible by any measure. Hell, Campball doesn't have a kicker that can hit the end zone on a kick off.I can't recall the last time (preseason on paper) Iowa State has been more stout on both the offensive and defensive lines than Iowa. As an Iowa State fan, that more than anything else, gives me confidence they should be able to win this game. They should have the ability to beat Iowa at their own game by controlling the line of scrimmage.
Guard - Downing, Center - Newell, Guard - Schweiger is a high-level interior offensive line for Iowa State. Iowa is a bit untested and unproven on the interior of their defensive line. Breece Hall crashing into that line of scrimmage 30+ times and breaking a few in the second half would worry me as an Iowa fan. Ferentz has a knack for keeping games close however it'll come down to the 4th quarter.
And don't get me started on the ISU punt return team.