Harris is leading in 3 of the 7 battleground states.

[cigaretteman]

The first two post-debate polls have rolled in. It’s still too early to know who has benefited yet, but Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead nationally as well as in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina and Nevada remain a tie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f007

 

[bunsen82]

The first two post-debate polls have rolled in. It’s still too early to know who has benefited yet, but Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead nationally as well as in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina and Nevada remain a tie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f007

If this continues, she may outright sweep the swing states. If down ballot voting occurs, senate may be in play for democrats. Not sure if that is a good thing or not, but the momentum change has been absolutely stunning.

 

[Huey Grey]

Only poll that matters is the vote. Trump is a dangerous lunatic. Make sure you vote to keep him out.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

Only poll that matters is the vote. Trump is a dangerous lunatic. Make sure you vote to keep him out.

I just can’t believe this many actual adults favor Trump.

I don’t get it.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

As @Huey Grey already said, it’s all about voter turnout. Democrats better be working overtime to get asses into the voting booths.

 

[gohawks50]

Arizona and Nevada have abortion protections on the ballot which should increase voter turnout. I think that benefits Harris.

 

[StormHawk42]

I’ll be curious to see what upcoming polls in Florida look like with this latest anti-Haitian sentiment. If she’s within 2-3%, it would be worth a couple campaign stops IMO. There’s a lot of Haitians in Florida.

 

[Tom Paris]

I just can’t believe this many actual adults favor Trump.

I don’t get it.

Rush Limbaugh did his job, and Fox News does their job REALLY well. I was driving through Arkansas a week ago and was scanning channels and stopped on a radio host talking emphatically how the liberal media members are mini-Hitlers. Being bombarded with this nonsense for decades is going to have an effect on people with no logic or too lazy to look up the info to see if they just got lied to.

Then there was a news break talking about the millions of dollars being sent to repair roads in Little Rock. Gee, I wonder who got them that? It wasn't the Republicans.

There has GOT to be a way to show that Fox is the enemy within our country and shut them down. The damage those liars have caused is why we are where we are. Their constant lies is why we have Donald Trump. Hopefully all of those assholes at Fox get theirs before I die.

 

[Chishawk1425]

I just can’t believe this many actual adults favor Trump.

I don’t get it.

I truly think it's bullshit just like 2022

 

[Tom Paris]

I truly think it's bullshit just like 2022

Trump will still get over 70 million votes.

 

[Chishawk1425]

Trump will still get over 70 million votes.

I don't see it but if that happens it speaks volumes.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Rush Limbaugh did his job, and Fox News does their job REALLY well. I was driving through Arkansas a week ago and was scanning channels and stopped on a radio host talking emphatically how the liberal media members are mini-Hitlers. Being bombarded with this nonsense for decades is going to have an effect on people with no logic or too lazy to look up the info to see if they just got lied to.

Then there was a news break talking about the millions of dollars being sent to repair roads in Little Rock. Gee, I wonder who got them that? It wasn't the Republicans.

There has GOT to be a way to show that Fox is the enemy within our country and shut them down. The damage those liars have caused is why we are where we are. Their constant lies is why we have Donald Trump. Hopefully all of those assholes at Fox get theirs before I die.

It's this. Limbaugh was the start but Fox and others have continued it. Now every message that most conservative voters get is how the world is out to get them. So they are utterly terrified of the world and terrified people tend to make very dumb decisions and get behind people who act like strongmen.

Add to that the socially disaffected people that the internet has created more of and Trump has attracted.

I honestly don't see a way out at least not in the near future. Our culture keeps creating more socially disaffected people, especially young men which introduces them to conspiracy theories, fox news, etc who convince them that the world is out to get them.

Trump has played perfectly into this.

 

[MitchLL]

The mere fact that North Carolina is in play is a massive problem for Trump.

Harris has at least 2X as much $$$ to spend for the ground game ..voter turnout.
I'd bet Trump’s inner circle of advisors are in panic mode.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

Rush Limbaugh did his job, and Fox News does their job REALLY well. I was driving through Arkansas a week ago and was scanning channels and stopped on a radio host talking emphatically how the liberal media members are mini-Hitlers. Being bombarded with this nonsense for decades is going to have an effect on people with no logic or too lazy to look up the info to see if they just got lied to.

Then there was a news break talking about the millions of dollars being sent to repair roads in Little Rock. Gee, I wonder who got them that? It wasn't the Republicans.

There has GOT to be a way to show that Fox is the enemy within our country and shut them down. The damage those liars have caused is why we are where we are. Their constant lies is why we have Donald Trump. Hopefully all of those assholes at Fox get theirs before I die.

Maybe if they keep getting hit in the pocketbook they will change their tune?

In blow to Fox Corp., judge rules Smartmatic case over 2020 election lies can proceed | CNN Business

The voting technology company Smartmatic can move forward with its defamation lawsuit against Fox Corporation, a New York judge ruled Wednesday, dealing a blow to the parent company of Fox News, which is already fighting the massive lawsuit over its repeated airing of 2020 election lies.

amp.cnn.com

 

[ICHawk-I]

As @Huey Grey already said, it’s all about voter turnout. Democrats better be working overtime to get asses into the voting booths.

I've said this in other posts, but my father is a guy that will reliably pull the lever for the GOP every year. He has said he will NOT vote this year. My in-laws have said the same. There isn't any polling or other data to show these kinds of people since most of the polls are of "likely" voters. Unless they are asking those who say they aren't a likely voter, why they aren't voting, these people are unaccounted for??

Can only hope this staying-at-home sentiment is what reasonable GOP voters are thinking and so the margins could not be as tight as we think. Guess we'll find out but it would be foolish underestimate anything at this point.

 

[artradley]

Arizona and Nevada have abortion protections on the ballot which should increase voter turnout. I think that benefits Harris.

Harris has no shot in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina. Hoping for any of those is a fool’s game. Partly because polling, and partly because GOP state legislatures will make it very different for Democrats to vote.

Basically, she has to hold the states where she has a reasonable but not decisive lead (WI,NM) or it’s game over.

She then has to win PA, VA, and MI.

everything has to go just right.

 

[artradley]

I've said this in other posts, but my father is a guy that will reliably pull the lever for the GOP every year. He has said he will NOT vote this year. My in-laws have said the same. There isn't any polling or other data to show these kinds of people since most of the polls are of "likely" voters. Unless they are asking those who say they aren't a likely voter, why they aren't voting, these people are unaccounted for??

Can only hope this staying-at-home sentiment is what reasonable GOP voters are thinking and so the margins could not be as tight as we think. Guess we'll find out but it would be foolish underestimate anything at this point.

???

This makes zero sense.

 

[ICHawk-I]

???

This makes zero sense.

Not sure what is so hard about that. We have no idea how many GOP voters will stay home this year because they dislike Trump. I gave 2 examples of ones I know. I was just suggesting that COULD be an X-factor in this election.

 

[torbee]

Harris has no shot in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina. Hoping for any of those is a fool’s game. Partly because polling, and partly because GOP state legislatures will make it very different for Democrats to vote.

Basically, she has to hold the states where she has a reasonable but not decisive lead (WI,NM) or it’s game over.

She then has to win PA, VA, and MI.

everything has to go just right.

This is way more pessimistic than even the pessimists who want Harris to win that I follow are saying.

I believe you are underestimating the money and ground game advantage the Harris team has - not to mention the growing realization by the millions of non-tuned-into politics folks of how much more deranged, incoherent and nasty Trump has gotten even since 2020.

I predict it will be close - but still a relatively comfortable cushion when all is said and done - for Harris/Walz.

 

[CoachH]

Harris has no shot in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina. Hoping for any of those is a fool’s game. Partly because polling, and partly because GOP state legislatures will make it very different for Democrats to vote.

Basically, she has to hold the states where she has a reasonable but not decisive lead (WI,NM) or it’s game over.

She then has to win PA, VA, and MI.

everything has to go just right.

No shot? Democrats won 3 of those states in 2020. And Trump is just warming up his unfavorability quotient.

 

[BrunoMars420]

“Every state is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and could go either way.”

With polls since 2016 I wonder how accurate these polling errors are now a days. Even with her being up in these swing states it seems like with this, every swing state seems to be a toss up as of now

 

[artradley]

No shot? Democrats won 3 of those states in 2020. And Trump is just warming up his unfavorability quotient.

Biden had a 8-point lead over Trump in 2020. Harris currently has a 2.6% lead. This is a different election.

Unfavourability quotient? Trump has had 8 years of showing his true self to the country. Half of the country loves it.

 

[artradley]

I believe you are underestimating the money and ground game advantage the Harris team has - not to mention the growing realization by the millions of non-tuned-into politics folks of how much more deranged, incoherent and nasty Trump has gotten even since 2020.

Get back to me when it's reflected in the polls. When was the last time the Democrat candidate performed better in the election than they did in the polls?

Reasonable people can agree Trump is displaying even more craziness now than before. But reasonable people were never voting for him in the first place.

 

[Huey Grey]

As @Huey Grey already said, it’s all about voter turnout. Democrats better be working overtime to get asses into the voting booths.

I've signed up to volunteer for Harris. But what's most important is each of our votes. Make sure you're registered. Make sure you vote. That's the only thing that really matters for any election.

 

[Huey Grey]

When was the last time the Democrat candidate performed better in the election than they did in the polls?

Every election since Dobbs.

 

[Tiny Hands Trump]

I don't think you can assume that previous polling errors, say in 2016 or 2020, will be same in 2024. That pretends polling agencies don't adjust methods. Remember the red wave of 2022? The most recent election erred to the GOP side by a decent margin. Dobbs has been killing the GOP.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Harris has no shot in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina. Hoping for any of those is a fool’s game. Partly because polling, and partly because GOP state legislatures will make it very different for Democrats to vote.

Basically, she has to hold the states where she has a reasonable but not decisive lead (WI,NM) or it’s game over.

She then has to win PA, VA, and MI.

everything has to go just right.

I wouldn't say she has no shot in NC and GA. Polls are really close there. However the easiest and most obvious path to victory remains PA, MI.

I would add that it's unlikely she would win in NC or GA and lose in PA or MI. So those states are likely only super important because it forces Trump to spend resources defending them.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

I don't think you can assume that previous polling errors, say in 2016 or 2020, will be same in 2024. That pretends polling agencies don't adjust methods. Remember the red wave of 2022? The most recent election erred to the GOP side by a decent margin. Dobbs has been killing the GOP.

yeah who the polls overestimate has changed over history and I think in 2022 and special elections since they have generally over-estimated Republican votes.

That isn't to say that happens in 2024, but it very well could. And if the polls are overestimating Trump by just 2 points than this is a blowout relatively speaking.

 

[nu2u]

I don't think you can assume that previous polling errors, say in 2016 or 2020, will be same in 2024. That pretends polling agencies don't adjust methods. Remember the red wave of 2022? The most recent election erred to the GOP side by a decent margin. Dobbs has been killing the GOP.

I believe polling errors will favor Dems for the reason you stated, namely: the broad surge in pro-abortion voter turnout (Dems, Indies, and Mod Rs) since Roe was overturned.

 

[torbee]

I believe polling errors will favor Dems for the reason you stated, namely: the broad surge in pro-abortion voter turnout (Dems, Indies, and Mod Rs) since Roe was overturned.

And a large and late influx of new voters between 18-25. That surge is not being accounted for in polling

 

[Funky Bunch]

Harris has no shot in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina. Hoping for any of those is a fool’s game. Partly because polling, and partly because GOP state legislatures will make it very different for Democrats to vote.

Basically, she has to hold the states where she has a reasonable but not decisive lead (WI,NM) or it’s game over.

She then has to win PA, VA, and MI.

everything has to go just right.

I don't agree with this, but it's the right attitude to have to make sure everyone gets out and votes

 

[torbee]

I don't agree with this, but it's the right attitude to have to make sure everyone gets out and votes

I'm voting once in Iowa and 7 times in Illinois!

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I've signed up to volunteer for Harris. But what's most important is each of our votes. Make sure you're registered. Make sure you vote. That's the only thing that really matters for any election.

I’m registered, my polling place is less than a mile from my house, and I am voting Harris.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

And a large and late influx of new voters between 18-25. That surge is not being accounted for in polling

I'm not sure how much that will help. Young men seem to be drawn to Donald Trump because many of them have grown up without fathers and have been told by the internet that being a man means being a bully.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

Trump will still get over 70 million votes.

And that truly is scary given everything that has transpired in 8 years.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

have grown up without fathers and have been told by the internet that being a man means being a bitch.

FIFY

Because make no mistake: Trump is a whiny, little bitch.

 

[torbee]

I'm not sure how much that will help. Young men seem to be drawn to Donald Trump because many of them have grown up without fathers and have been told by the internet that being a man means being a bully.

Yeah but those kind of bros are lazy pieces of shit that probably won't bother to vote.

Pissed off young women - and I know because I have one and work with another - are FIRED UP to vote in this election.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I'm voting once in Iowa and 7 times in Illinois!

Flip those numbers, bro. Iowa needs your 7 votes more than Illinois does.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

FIFY

Because make no mistake: Trump is a whiny, little bitch.

A lot of bullies are both bullies and whiny little bitches. Bullying ultimately comes from a place of insecurity and weakness. Strong people don't have to beat up or try to hurt weaker people to try to make other people think they are strong. Only weak people need to do that because they fear people discovering their weakness.

 

[thewop]

It's this. Limbaugh was the start but Fox and others have continued it. Now every message that most conservative voters get is how the world is out to get them. So they are utterly terrified of the world and terrified people tend to make very dumb decisions and get behind people who act like strongmen.

Add to that the socially disaffected people that the internet has created more of and Trump has attracted.

I honestly don't see a way out at least not in the near future. Our culture keeps creating more socially disaffected people, especially young men which introduces them to conspiracy theories, fox news, etc who convince them that the world is out to get them.

Trump has played perfectly into this.

Fox news didn't make the price of everything rise by 20-45% I er the past 3 years, nor did they allow record numbers of illegals over the border virtually unchecked over the past 3 years.

These are real things that matter to many people, and Biden/Harris presided over it. Sure we can say trump/pandemic is the reason for all of that, but it isn't lost on many people that Dems were the driving force between shutdowns, vaccine mandates, and restrictions that sent the economy into freefall.

While Trump is a highly undesirable human being, people simply were better off for the vast majority of his presidency than they have been under Biden Harris.

Since Republicans were unable to get together and elect someone reasonable, people are left to choose between the life they had 2016-2020, or more of '21-24. It isn't hard to see why people would support Trump.

Abortion is the big winning issue for dems, but it's having to work very hard given how relatively few voters are impacted by it.