I believe he is referring to the off guard position ie Gabbie
Hawkeye Women's BBall Season 2022-2023
- Thread starter huntermmm
- Start date
The guard opposite Caitlin, not the point guard.
What about the possibility of Davis at the 1 and Clark at the 2? Thoughts on whether that lineup would miss a beat?
I personally haven’t seen Davis but will check it out when I see the source. Evidently she has a high b-ball IQ.
I completely disagree Iowa's defensive improvement is limited or that we are incapable of protecting the rim. I think defense is a weakness for both Mckenna and Monica, but our bench will bring defense. And we have a deeper bench, which will allow the team to bring different looks defensively.
Goodman and O'Grady have the potential to be rim protectors. Sharon had 16 blocks in 20-21 in only 8 minutes of play. In comparison Monica had 18 blocks in nearly 30 minutes of play the same year. Goodman really came on late in the BIG season. I love her upside. Since I first saw her play I've been high on her potential.
Last year O'Grady had 26 blocks to Monica's 8. O'Grady averaged 9 minutes last year to 28 for Monica. When Monica is in team's tended to run sets that pull her out from the basket whereas we saw O'Grady and Goodman stay home in the post more often. It's quite possible O'Grady gets some minutes at the 4 as well. Maybe Warnock slides to the 3 when Kate gets a breather with Kylie being out for the year.
Stuelke has the potential to be an excellent shot blocker. She can jump out of the arena. Warnock's more of a perimeter player where Stuelke is an inside/out player. Think Amanda Ollinger with better ups and shooting.
I think Iowa is better defensively without Monica but obviously better offensively with her. I think we'll see Sharon make big strides as long as there's no lingering effects from the injury and I expect O'Grady to be improved as well. I'm extremely high on Goodman/O'Grady. It's like having Jamie Cavey (best comparison for Goodman) and Morgan Johnson (best comparison for O'Grady) on the floor together.
Goodman and O'Grady have the potential to be rim protectors. Sharon had 16 blocks in 20-21 in only 8 minutes of play. In comparison Monica had 18 blocks in nearly 30 minutes of play the same year. Goodman really came on late in the BIG season. I love her upside. Since I first saw her play I've been high on her potential.
Last year O'Grady had 26 blocks to Monica's 8. O'Grady averaged 9 minutes last year to 28 for Monica. When Monica is in team's tended to run sets that pull her out from the basket whereas we saw O'Grady and Goodman stay home in the post more often. It's quite possible O'Grady gets some minutes at the 4 as well. Maybe Warnock slides to the 3 when Kate gets a breather with Kylie being out for the year.
Stuelke has the potential to be an excellent shot blocker. She can jump out of the arena. Warnock's more of a perimeter player where Stuelke is an inside/out player. Think Amanda Ollinger with better ups and shooting.
I think Iowa is better defensively without Monica but obviously better offensively with her. I think we'll see Sharon make big strides as long as there's no lingering effects from the injury and I expect O'Grady to be improved as well. I'm extremely high on Goodman/O'Grady. It's like having Jamie Cavey (best comparison for Goodman) and Morgan Johnson (best comparison for O'Grady) on the floor together.
When I said the team's defensive potential was limited I was talking about the starting lineup. Czinano, Warnock, and Marshall are all somewhat physically limited for their positions. There is a limit on how much better they can get defensively. For better or worse, last year's starting lineup will still see the vast majority of the team's minutes this year, even if the depth players take some of those minutes.
I do think Clark's senior year could have a better team than this year's team specifically because O'Grady/Goodman are better defensively and on the glass. If either make close to the jump Czinano did in low post scoring, they could be really, really good players.
I don't think they can be as good as the 2019 team. Doyle was a better perimeter defender than anyone on this team will be. Gustafson was better defensively (and especially as a rebounder) than Czinano will be. That said, this year's team is better offensively, so it doesn't need to be as good on defense.
I also don't think we've seen the best form of the offense yet. Basically everyone shot worse from 3 last year than they did the year before. Davis should be a big help in limiting turnovers against pressure. And Martin has shown flashes as an offensive weapon attacking the basket.
Agreed. Here’s the thing about our offense. The last two years were very much a roller coaster ride, and thru that ride, we’ve seen flashes of greatness for Martin, Warnock and Marshall, but it has yet to all come together. We’ve had very little chance to see everyone (not named Clark or Czinano) at their best.
- During Marshall’s sophomore year, she developed quite the reputation as a 3 pt assassin. I remember a couple of games where she had 5 (6?) treys apiece. Autumn Johnson even featured her in a “Top 5 three point threats” video coming into last year. Her injury rly put a lid on her junior year tho. She never rly got back to where she was, offensively.
- Then Warnock of course really became a consistent part of our success last year. Without her, we clearly weren’t the same team. She missed games, we lost them. (Another reason I believe Bluder should offer her a 5th yr if she wants it).
- And perhaps most importantly, Kate Martin finally grew into her own during the B1G tourney last year as a slasher and driver. She had had so many games pre-tourney (and in ‘20-‘21) where her offense was just non-existent. But based on her comments this summer, she plans to have the ball in her hands much more often this year. This could be a game changer for our offense tbh. If she and Davis can start splitting defenders regularly…..that could be very beneficial.
So, here’s hoping that it all comes together this year. A balanced offense with a deeper bench to both elevate us and save our starters legs — and a modest improvement in rebounding/defense — could make us very dangerous, with the potential to go much further in the NCAA tourney this year.
Not many starting lineup get the opportunity to grow together like this over 3 seasons. We’ve had quite the opportunity to let everyone find their groove within the system. That Czinano gets to come back again is ridiculously lucky.
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Curious if you know whether Iowa is playing Creighton again this year in their closed scrimmage. Another team instead?
An acquaintance of mine in the athletic dept at Creighton told me Iowa turned them down lol.
He has also seen McCabe play ~8 times and he says her defensive skills are underrated, she is the best perimeter shooter he has ever seen in Nebraska.
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This is the type of attitude which will haunt Iowa. Yes, the Hawks will be a fun team to watch but unless they show marked improvement on defense, especialy rebounding, they will never make a deep NCAA run and will be vulnerable to losing to teams like Creighton.
An earlier post indicated there are more mens individual tickets available than womens.
Sports Illustrated (print) has Iowa at #4 in the pre-season with a graphic of CC right in the middle of the spread (the only graphic in the spread). UConn at 5, ISU at 8, no other B1G teams in the Top 10.
CBS highlights 4 teams as their Final Four picks: SC, Stanford, Iowa, Tennessee.
www.cbssports.com
Women's college basketball preview: Top Final Four contenders that could win the national championship
The Final Four should see two recent usual suspects and a former power could join them in Dallas
www.cbssports.com
What does everyone think of Iowa being ranked #4 in the AP poll (and very close to #3)? My gut reaction was that it seems high. The team is much the same as last year, and certainly wasn't one of the best 4 teams in the country last year.
That said, I think there are plenty of questions outside of South Carolina. Stanford lost most of its back court. Texas and Tennessee will need to take the same big step Iowa will. UConn has to replace Bueckers. Louisville and NC State lost a ton of talent.
The top teams this year seem weaker on paper.
That said, I think there are plenty of questions outside of South Carolina. Stanford lost most of its back court. Texas and Tennessee will need to take the same big step Iowa will. UConn has to replace Bueckers. Louisville and NC State lost a ton of talent.
The top teams this year seem weaker on paper.
CBS picking Iowa for the Final Four without discussing defense is kind of silly.
In the modern analytics era (2010-present), there has been only 1 team that defensively looks somewhat close to a Bluder team to make the Final 4, and comparing Iowa favorably to that 1 team is a stretch. Bluder's 2 best defensive teams during this era (2018, 2019) were ranked 52nd and 54th in defense (Her Hoops Stats Defensive Rating), but 45 of the last 48 Final 4 teams were ranked top 15 in defense, with 35 being top 5 defenses. (These defensive numbers are much more concentrated at the top than the men's game). The 3 WBB Final 4 outliers are Oklahoma in 2010 (defensive rank 22), Cal in 2013 (D rank 32), and Washington in 2016 (D rank 38). Perhaps Washington in 2016 with Kelsey Plum is a comp for Iowa with Caitlin Clark, but that is somewhat of a stretch comparison to Bluder's best defensive teams since 2010. (Are there pre-2010 Final Four teams to which Bluder teams compare favorably (2001 SW Missouri State? 2004 Minnesota?)?
The difficulty of making the Final Four is highlighted by the Elite Eight games involving teams that actually look like a Bluder team, who all lost badly in the Elite Eight. There are only 4 teams with a sub-40 defensive ranking to make the Elite Eight from 2010-22, none of whom made the Final 4: Dayton-2015 (D rank 42, lost 91-70); Oregon-2017 (D rank 54, lost 90-52); Iowa-2019 (D rank 54; lost 85-53); and Creighton-2022 (D rank 74, lost 80-50). These numbers highlight what a great achievement it was to make the Elite Eight in 2019.
IMO, Iowa's chances of making a credible run at the Final 4 depend on Gabe Sifuentes being right about major defensive improvement, and right about the role that Goodman, O'Grady and Stuelke will play in bringing about that improvement. Molly Davis being a defensive surprise (to me) may also be necessary.
Unfortunately, I side with BraydonRoberts5, and doubt that the bench can carry to you to a top 40 defense, when the starters can't. I also think that last year was a major defensive improvement (going from 186 to 99), and that it is athletic shortcomings that will prevent Iowa from being a top 50 defense, let alone top 30/40.
Agreed. It was a nice run the end of last year, but in mid-Feb the team was only 16-7. If the newbies add defense and rebounding we can get to Top 5.
I think a Final 4 would take some combination of a performance like the 2016 Washington team, a weaker than normal set of teams at the top, or luck with tournament matchups.
Iowa would likely be the worst defensive team to make a final 4 in the analytics era. That said, if our three-point shooting reverts to what it was two years ago, we could also have one of the best offenses of the analytics era.
Plus I do think the top teams this year are weaker than last year. It's possible Iowa could end up facing a 3/4 seed or a team like Creighton in the Elite 8. Or that a good not great Iowa State team ends up as Iowa's Elite 8 opponent.
I don't think a Final 4 is likely, but I do think it is more possible now than it's been in a very long time.
Being ranked at #4 is our ceiling, not reflective of our average level of play. In other words, yup, we're overrated.
Wow a tough crowd. Don’t know if we are overrated or not but IMO we can be better than the 2019 team. The defense was improved last year and I see no reason it can’t improve again this year. OGrady is a rim protector we haven’t had in a number of years.
So here's the thing. Our defensive struggles and lack of athleticism (elite recruits) are well-documented. Coaches, media, fans, everyone knows that we are elite at offense, middling at defense/toughness. Yet we are still ranked #4 (almost #3!)....so, what is the disconnect here?
- Are the media assuming that all of a sudden we're going to jump 100+ places in defensive rating?
- Are they relying too much on / overestimating Clark's star power? Seems like that would suggest the voters don't know as much about basketball as they should...
- Are they assuming that despite our defensive struggles, Clark and Czinano's offensive power is simply good enough to bring it home? (Or perhaps they're saying that we only need to improve mildly on D -- as much as we could expect a team to improve from one season to the next -- considering the cushion from our O)?
- Have the mighty (ND, Duke, Oregon, Baylor, Maryland, etc) just fallen so far that we are now the best of the rest (similar to how 2019 ended, but now the creme of the crop is only 3 teams instead of 7)?
- Do people actually remember that our team faced significant injuries / hardship last year (COVID pause) and it likely put a lid on some of our production? (My guess is no.)
- Of course, some are saying the high ranking is a way for the media to set Clark up for NPOY / it's due to inherent bias since our team is comprised of a bunch of white girls. (Both can be true with regard to the NPOY race, I guess.)
So...what gives? Obviously lots of people here and around the WBB universe are skeptical of this ranking...but enough people (whom I would assume know the game pretty well) think otherwise.... why do they believe in our team so much?
And WHY do people think we are so much better than ISU, OSU, Creighton....whom all beat us and whose rosters are all largely in tact this year as well?
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This will make me even more unpopular, but I fail to see how Iowa is ranked ahead of Iowa State. Cyclones were better last year and return everybody except Aubrey Joens, who wasn't playing much during the second half of the season, plus a starter who missed last season with injury, and two highly regarded recruits/transfers at key positions.
An ISU fan on Reddit asked this a couple months ago when the other pre-season rankings had Iowa higher. I simply replied that they probably wouldn't like the reasons. Didn't get a response, but I would have said that I think most people would say Iowa's ceiling is higher than ISU's -- maybe that means CC's ceiling is higher than AJ's, LB's coaching is better than CBF's, or what have you. Based on (most) stats on paper, most would probably pick Iowa.
Perhaps this is how we should look at the rankings in general -- when you compare our players to other players, apples to apples, as though you're drafting players, most would pick Clark and Czinano (and Warnock?) over Joens and whomever your other best players are.
Bluder has said more than once that she believes that the PG and C are the most important positions, maybe most people agree with that? The CW really does seem to be that Clark and Czinano are the best PG/C combo in the country -- even up against the bluebloods. Maybe that's what our #4 rank really boils down to.
Also, you may have lots of confidence in your transfers, but don't expect others to. I think that for most teams (i.e, everyone but UConn, Stanford, SC) you have to produce before people believe you can do it. ISU had a great year but I think they were pretty obscure before that (everyone here knows that ISU is always tough and that 5-0 run in Iowa's favor was crazy, but outside Iowa, ppl don't pay attention to our rivalry and pry assume Iowa is just generally better based on the recent H2H record). It takes more time to establish yourself than fans of any non-blueblood would like to admit.
I think ISU beat Iowa last year and deserved to win it because they simply wanted it more. Any school would after going 0-5. The fact that our team had COVID and had barely practiced in 2 wks helped. I also think Iowa played Creighton better than ISU did in the tourney. Good luck this season!
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Iowa was every bit as good as ISU at the end of the season. COVID hit the Hawks early last year and ISU beat us at a opportune time. With that said I think ISU will be very good this year and certainly a final 4 threat. And please don’t tell me Emily Ryan is a better point guard than Clark as some idiots have been saying all year on Cyclone fanatic.
I think Iowa was slightly better than Iowa State by the end of last season. Part of that is that I think they use Ashley Joens in isolation sets too often. She actually shot pretty poorly from 2 last year, yet a number of their possessions include her trying to dribble at the basket while the rest of the team does nothing. Donarski and Ryan are both very good. They should use them more on offense.
I agree with Clark being better than Ryan. but the combination of Ryan & Donarski may be better than the combination of Clark & Marshall. Hopefully the combination of Clark & Davis will jell this year, with Marshall and whoever backs them up.
I think our high ranking is largely due to roster stability. We return all 5 starters, plus some bench pieces. In that regard we are a "known" quantity. Our strengths are already proven. (and the weaknesses too....)
Most other top 10-15ish teams are counting on one or more new faces to be key contributors right away. In those cases, the ceilings of those teams may ultimately be higher than ours, and it's certainly possible they might be playing better than us by the end of the season. But for now there are still questions. I would guess voters might just want to see these teams in action first and move them up/down accordingly as it becomes clear which transfers/freshmen/etc are actually going to be impact players on their new teams.
Most other top 10-15ish teams are counting on one or more new faces to be key contributors right away. In those cases, the ceilings of those teams may ultimately be higher than ours, and it's certainly possible they might be playing better than us by the end of the season. But for now there are still questions. I would guess voters might just want to see these teams in action first and move them up/down accordingly as it becomes clear which transfers/freshmen/etc are actually going to be impact players on their new teams.
Will be interesting to see how the coaches vote. Could be different or closer.
I appreciate all the comments and I realize this is a Hawkeye board. I see no reason to get into the matter of whether Fennelly or Bluder is considered the better coach. Iowa is ranked 4th by AP and ISU is ranked 8th. I wouldn't be surprised if Clark's fame is a factor there, and I wonder if the voters knew that Joens was coming back for an extra year.
Having said all that, nobody is a better guard than Clark. But I don't know of any team, including Iowa, that has a better pair of guards than Ryan and Donarski. Fritz started the first two or three games before being lost for the season. Espermiller-McGraw has 34 starts in her career, which has been marked by injuries. To say the Cyclones are strong in the backcourt is the understatement of the century.
Joens has won the Cheryl Miller Award (best small forward in America) the past two years. Dieu is solid.
The key to how far ISU goes will be the performance of the big girls. The ones returning have had their moments, but none is a stud(ette). People are expecting big things from the 6-6 Brazilian, but as somebody here pointed out, transfers have to show their skills before you can count on them.
Both teams should be really, really good. Here's hoping injuries or other unfortunate things can be avoided.
This will sound like blasphemy, but if Iowa and Iowa State could join rosters, the combined team would be so fun to watch. I still think it would be a bad defensive team, but it would absolutely be possible for that team to outscore everyone and compete for a national title.
Depends upon when the vote was taken. If it was in the last month or so, you are correct. But her announcement that she was coming back was a surprise.
