ADVERTISEMENT

Hawkeye Women's BBall Season 2022-2023

This will sound like blasphemy, but if Iowa and Iowa State could join rosters, the combined team would be so fun to watch. I still think it would be a bad defensive team, but it would absolutely be possible for that team to outscore everyone and compete for a national title.
True. You could have said that about some MBB and football teams over the years, too.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: natchrlman
CBS picking Iowa for the Final Four without discussing defense is kind of silly.

In the modern analytics era (2010-present), there has been only 1 team that defensively looks somewhat close to a Bluder team to make the Final 4, and comparing Iowa favorably to that 1 team is a stretch. Bluder's 2 best defensive teams during this era (2018, 2019) were ranked 52nd and 54th in defense (Her Hoops Stats Defensive Rating), but 45 of the last 48 Final 4 teams were ranked top 15 in defense, with 35 being top 5 defenses. (These defensive numbers are much more concentrated at the top than the men's game). The 3 WBB Final 4 outliers are Oklahoma in 2010 (defensive rank 22), Cal in 2013 (D rank 32), and Washington in 2016 (D rank 38). Perhaps Washington in 2016 with Kelsey Plum is a comp for Iowa with Caitlin Clark, but that is somewhat of a stretch comparison to Bluder's best defensive teams since 2010. (Are there pre-2010 Final Four teams to which Bluder teams compare favorably (2001 SW Missouri State? 2004 Minnesota?)?

The difficulty of making the Final Four is highlighted by the Elite Eight games involving teams that actually look like a Bluder team, who all lost badly in the Elite Eight. There are only 4 teams with a sub-40 defensive ranking to make the Elite Eight from 2010-22, none of whom made the Final 4: Dayton-2015 (D rank 42, lost 91-70); Oregon-2017 (D rank 54, lost 90-52); Iowa-2019 (D rank 54; lost 85-53); and Creighton-2022 (D rank 74, lost 80-50). These numbers highlight what a great achievement it was to make the Elite Eight in 2019.

IMO, Iowa's chances of making a credible run at the Final 4 depend on Gabe Sifuentes being right about major defensive improvement, and right about the role that Goodman, O'Grady and Stuelke will play in bringing about that improvement. Molly Davis being a defensive surprise (to me) may also be necessary.



Unfortunately, I side with BraydonRoberts5, and doubt that the bench can carry to you to a top 40 defense, when the starters can't. I also think that last year was a major defensive improvement (going from 186 to 99), and that it is athletic shortcomings that will prevent Iowa from being a top 50 defense, let alone top 30/40.

Fresher legs due to a now VERY deep bench and allowing fewer possessions is what will carry the defense to big improvements. We made major strides last year but rebounding and turnovers killed the defense. Yes the starters stay the same, but we add size and/or athleticism with the bench. Davis -- good on the ball defender, McCabe - good on the ball/perimeter defender, Stuelke - good defense all around and the return of Goodman who is very good rebounder and rim protector. We lost Logan Cook who did her best but played out of position. She is a basically an undersized 5 and had a lot of heart but was not a good defender. Tomi was a good defender and she will be missed. Losing Kylie to injury will hurt as she was improving but with the addition of Davis and McCabe we'll be fine.

I think we can get to the Top 50/60 range by limiting turnovers and rebounding. We have more ball handlers and Goodman/Stuelke are very good rebounders so I think we can do that.

I also think this team is going to be more efficient scoring the ball with Davis, McCabe and Stuelke all capable of getting to the rim meaning we'll spend less time in transition and will be able to set up our D and even press a little more.

If you go back and watch the tape the story of our D was force a bad shot and then losing the rebound battle. I can't remember how many times I screamed because we gave up 2nd/3rd chance points.

Take away even 1/3 of those 2nd/3rd chance opportunities and our defense ratings improve significantly.

We are capable of playing defense. Rewatch the BTT. If there is one challenge to the amount of improvement we can make, it's the very difficult non-conference schedule. I'm very excited for the upcoming season
 
Fresher legs due to a now VERY deep bench and allowing fewer possessions is what will carry the defense to big improvements. We made major strides last year but rebounding and turnovers killed the defense. Yes the starters stay the same, but we add size and/or athleticism with the bench. Davis -- good on the ball defender, McCabe - good on the ball/perimeter defender, Stuelke - good defense all around and the return of Goodman who is very good rebounder and rim protector. We lost Logan Cook who did her best but played out of position. She is a basically an undersized 5 and had a lot of heart but was not a good defender. Tomi was a good defender and she will be missed. Losing Kylie to injury will hurt as she was improving but with the addition of Davis and McCabe we'll be fine.

I think we can get to the Top 50/60 range by limiting turnovers and rebounding. We have more ball handlers and Goodman/Stuelke are very good rebounders so I think we can do that.

I also think this team is going to be more efficient scoring the ball with Davis, McCabe and Stuelke all capable of getting to the rim meaning we'll spend less time in transition and will be able to set up our D and even press a little more.

If you go back and watch the tape the story of our D was force a bad shot and then losing the rebound battle. I can't remember how many times I screamed because we gave up 2nd/3rd chance points.

Take away even 1/3 of those 2nd/3rd chance opportunities and our defense ratings improve significantly.

We are capable of playing defense. Rewatch the BTT. If there is one challenge to the amount of improvement we can make, it's the very difficult non-conference schedule. I'm very excited for the upcoming season
I want to believe this. But will Bluder really regularly rotate 10 players (5 starters plus Goodman, O’Grady, Davis, McCabe and Stuelke)? Maybe it’s just bc we’ve never been in this position before depthwise but it’s hard to actually envision.

Based on past typical minute distribution, I can’t help but wonder if the actual rotation might just be Davis (1-2), Stuelke (3-4), O’Grady (4-5) in big games (which we have a ton of this year). IMO 9 is the ideal number, but that depends on positional distribution, and the minutes aren’t necessarily gonna be distributed equally among the 4 reserves.

Not to mention Affolter whom CC said we should expect to take a major leap this year. I took that to mean she’d be backing up at the 2-3. So that’s 11 players various fans are all looking forward to seeing get minutes….seems like a lot for such a top-heavy team.

Asking out of genuine curiosity, not bc I don’t believe it or don’t hope it will happen. I’d love to see a more balanced offense and I’d love to see all these talented ladies get quality PT.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Like
Reactions: cyberhawk
I want to believe this. But will Bluder really regularly rotate 10 players (5 starters plus Goodman, O’Grady, Davis, McCabe and Stuelke)? Maybe it’s just bc we’ve never been in this position before depthwise but it’s hard to actually envision.

Based on past typical minute distribution, I can’t help but wonder if the actual rotation might just be Davis (1-2), Stuelke (3-4), O’Grady (4-5) in big games (which we have a ton of this year). IMO 9 is the ideal number, but that depends on positional distribution, and the minutes aren’t necessarily gonna be distributed equally among the 4 reserves.

Not to mention Affolter whom CC said we should expect to take a major leap this year. I took that to mean she’d be backing up at the 2-3. So that’s 11 players various fans are all looking forward to seeing get minutes….seems like a lot for such a top-heavy team.

Asking out of genuine curiosity, not bc I don’t believe it or don’t hope it will happen. I’d love to see a more balanced offense and I’d love to see all these talented ladies get quality PT.
Early in her coaching career at Iowa, Bluder used to sub liberally. If she has bodies she can trust, I believe she will sub more. Especially if the starters continue to have success.

Stuelke and Davis will certainly get minutes as will O'grady and Goodman, so we'll see 9 at the very least. And I think Syd will get some minutes at the 3 to make it 10. With the way Iowa runs, the more bodies we can throw at opposing defenses the better.

My guess is that each starter will see 2-3 minutes less on average and we might see early exits for starters in games if we're able to build a nice cushion. The key is going to be fewer turnovers and better rebounding so we're not needing our starters in the final 4-5 minutes of games.

We've been forced to play short benches the past three season because we didn't have depth. But I think given the depth we have, Bluder will rest the starters for more than just a minute a two. And those extra minutes will add up by the end of the season.
 
Early in her coaching career at Iowa, Bluder used to sub liberally. If she has bodies she can trust, I believe she will sub more. Especially if the starters continue to have success.

Stuelke and Davis will certainly get minutes as will O'grady and Goodman, so we'll see 9 at the very least. And I think Syd will get some minutes at the 3 to make it 10. With the way Iowa runs, the more bodies we can throw at opposing defenses the better.

My guess is that each starter will see 2-3 minutes less on average and we might see early exits for starters in games if we're able to build a nice cushion. The key is going to be fewer turnovers and better rebounding so we're not needing our starters in the final 4-5 minutes of games.

We've been forced to play short benches the past three season because we didn't have depth. But I think given the depth we have, Bluder will rest the starters for more than just a minute a two. And those extra minutes will add up by the end of the season.
In order to see more of Goodman and O’Grady…I wonder if we’ll ever get to see 2 posts on the floor at once. Considering how good Goodman and O’Grady are at protecting the rim, I wonder if it would help our D in a way that playing our typical lineup just can’t do….
 
In order to see more of Goodman and O’Grady…I wonder if we’ll ever get to see 2 posts on the floor at once. Considering how good Goodman and O’Grady are at protecting the rim, I wonder if it would help our D in a way that playing our typical lineup just can’t do….
O'Grady was recruited for the 4/5 so it's possible. Goodman is a 5 only.
 
Depends upon when the vote was taken. If it was in the last month or so, you are correct. But her announcement that she was coming back was a surprise.
I'm fairly confident the AP Poll votes occurred in the last couple weeks. Jeff Linder is a voter and he tweeted his poll out on October 5th.

I'm fairly confident Iowa State wouldn't be a Top 10 team if it didn't have Joens. I know Iowa wouldn't be a Top 20 team without Clark.
 
I want to believe this. But will Bluder really regularly rotate 10 players (5 starters plus Goodman, O’Grady, Davis, McCabe and Stuelke)? Maybe it’s just bc we’ve never been in this position before depthwise but it’s hard to actually envision.

Based on past typical minute distribution, I can’t help but wonder if the actual rotation might just be Davis (1-2), Stuelke (3-4), O’Grady (4-5) in big games (which we have a ton of this year). IMO 9 is the ideal number, but that depends on positional distribution, and the minutes aren’t necessarily gonna be distributed equally among the 4 reserves.

Not to mention Affolter whom CC said we should expect to take a major leap this year. I took that to mean she’d be backing up at the 2-3. So that’s 11 players various fans are all looking forward to seeing get minutes….seems like a lot for such a top-heavy team.

Asking out of genuine curiosity, not bc I don’t believe it or don’t hope it will happen. I’d love to see a more balanced offense and I’d love to see all these talented ladies get quality PT.
I'd like to see more situation-specific lineups. You're right that the rotations have been fairly small the past few years. This year's depth should offer flexibility.

If length and rebounding are really needed one night, we could work Martin at the 2 some, Stuelke at the 3 some, and O'Grady at the 4 some.

The next night, maybe shooting and spacing are really important, so we have Clark, McCabe, and Marshall in spots 1-3 for a time.

Or maybe an opponent's best offensive player is a 3. Rather than a normal rotation, we tell Martin and Affolter they're each getting 20 minutes at the 3, and to leave it all on the floor on the defensive end for those 20 minutes.

Playing 10 or 11 players for significant minutes each night probably isn't in the team's best interest. But we could absolutely have 10-11 players be key contributors throughout the season if we play them in the right situations.
 

Sharing this for discussion since Gabbie got a shoutout: "Iowa has the luxury of returning all five starters from the previous two seasons, a group headlined by Caitlin Clark and Monika Czinano. So where does Marshall come in? Any pressure she can alleviate from Clark needing to produce from the backcourt would be helpful, and she could be a great recipient of Clark's dimes off her paint penetration. Marshall has been a strong 3-point shooter since arriving to Iowa, but if she can get closer to her clip from her sophomore season (47.1% on 4.0 3-point attempts per game), then Iowa might really be cooking. For Iowa to advance to its first Final Four since 1993, though, the team will need to play better defense; Marshall can help spearhead that effort, as she has led the team in steals each of the last two seasons.

Love that Gabbie got a little press, but TBH I think the feautured player should have been Kate Martin. She has a higher ceiling than Gabbie as a rebounder, versatile defender (can guard 1 through 4), and secondary playmaker/facilitator on offense as she showed during the BTT. Kate making a jump in her consistency would help us even more than Gabbie shooting it a bit better than she already does.

(p.s. Is anyone else routinely annoyed by Alexa Philippou from ESPN (the author of the piece)? She got the ESPN job after being a UConn beat reporter for a few years and to me it's just blatantly obvious that she came from a UConn background. Particularly annoyed me last season when she described Czinano as a "role player" for Iowa heading into the NCAA tournament.)
 

Sharing this for discussion since Gabbie got a shoutout: "Iowa has the luxury of returning all five starters from the previous two seasons, a group headlined by Caitlin Clark and Monika Czinano. So where does Marshall come in? Any pressure she can alleviate from Clark needing to produce from the backcourt would be helpful, and she could be a great recipient of Clark's dimes off her paint penetration. Marshall has been a strong 3-point shooter since arriving to Iowa, but if she can get closer to her clip from her sophomore season (47.1% on 4.0 3-point attempts per game), then Iowa might really be cooking. For Iowa to advance to its first Final Four since 1993, though, the team will need to play better defense; Marshall can help spearhead that effort, as she has led the team in steals each of the last two seasons.

Love that Gabbie got a little press, but TBH I think the feautured player should have been Kate Martin. She has a higher ceiling than Gabbie as a rebounder, versatile defender (can guard 1 through 4), and secondary playmaker/facilitator on offense as she showed during the BTT. Kate making a jump in her consistency would help us even more than Gabbie shooting it a bit better than she already does.
I can see why they chose Gabbie. Hindsight may be 20/20 but I remember her soph yr she was garnering quite the reputation as a 3 pt assassin. Last yr Autumn Johnson even highlighted her in a pre-season vid about the best 3 pt threats in the B1G. I think she was a big part of Iowa’s burgeoning reputation as a dangerous team in ‘20-‘21. I even remember thinking she was a more valuable player than McKenna tbh.

Last yr she kinda faded into the background and I’ve actually seen a fair bit of criticism on Reddit toward her from Iowa fans, which I think is unwarranted — everyone started out rough from the perimeter last yr, and I think her injury prevented her from getting back to form.

Back to ‘20-‘21 tho…I remember a couple games where she made 5 or 6 treys, and a few non-Iowa fans do as well. I actually saw her mentioned on Twitter yesterday in a long convo about our ranking. Someone said that all we’ve got are Clark and Czinano and someone else (whom I think was otherwise a doubter) replied “Marshall is 🌶 tho” (spicy haha). I also saw her mentioned on a Rutgers message board as being a problem (like, “we still haven’t figured out how guard Marshall…”).

I do wish Martin got more respect tho — I believe she’s why we won the BTT and her scrappiness was instrumental to us beating Michigan.

Anyway, that’s all to say that i think if you’re sold on Iowa being better this yr than last, I can see why Marshall might be someone you’d look to as key to that improvement. Kate, love her to death, was basically invisible to onlookers until the BTT.

Even a huge B1G WBb fan I follow on Twitter, who was very impressed with her in the BTT last yr, seems to have forgotten about her heading into this season.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
so like two players from the clones ( resisted saying clowns) and 20 from the Hawks?
It would depend upon the team. They could have put together a MBB team that would have won the 1987 NCAA championship in a walk with just one or two Hawkeyes. Most of the teams under Hoiberg would have had more Cyclones than Hawks, as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: natchrlman
It would depend upon the team. They could have put together a MBB team that would have won the 1987 NCAA championship in a walk with just one or two Hawkeyes. Most of the teams under Hoiberg would have had more Cyclones than Hawks, as well.

ISU went 13-15 in 1986-87 and you think just 2 Iowa guys could have made that a walk to the title? GTFO.
 
one area on the interior that should improve along with rebounding is just physical play. We didn’t want Monica to foul to not lose her. With Sharon and OGrady that’s 15 fouls to give, we can be more physical.
With Jans tweets about how well praactice is going, I think we can expect them to perform at least as well as the football offense.... I actually think the depth will make a big difference, especially if Lisa was serious about letting Ogrady play some power forward. Warnock fights inside, but she is undersized against some teams. Last year the the team really struggled when she was out. It seems like the extra size and addition of Stuelke could make a big difference in rebounding.
 
With Jans tweets about how well praactice is going, I think we can expect them to perform at least as well as the football offense.... I actually think the depth will make a big difference, especially if Lisa was serious about letting Ogrady play some power forward. Warnock fights inside, but she is undersized against some teams. Last year the the team really struggled when she was out. It seems like the extra size and addition of Stuelke could make a big difference in rebounding.
Also, I expect Davis to be pretty good offensively, but in watching her games a little bit, she looks like an average defender? Does that seem fair?
 
Also, I expect Davis to be pretty good offensively, but in watching her games a little bit, she looks like an average defender? Does that seem fair?
Idk, she had 5 (!) steals when she played us. But yeah, overall I think her defensive skills are low on the reasons why Iowa sought her. But honestly our defensive ceiling is pretty low so if she’s able to come in and get any steals / be a scrappy defender, it will be an upgrade for us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: crstuff

Sharing this for discussion since Gabbie got a shoutout: "Iowa has the luxury of returning all five starters from the previous two seasons, a group headlined by Caitlin Clark and Monika Czinano. So where does Marshall come in? Any pressure she can alleviate from Clark needing to produce from the backcourt would be helpful, and she could be a great recipient of Clark's dimes off her paint penetration. Marshall has been a strong 3-point shooter since arriving to Iowa, but if she can get closer to her clip from her sophomore season (47.1% on 4.0 3-point attempts per game), then Iowa might really be cooking. For Iowa to advance to its first Final Four since 1993, though, the team will need to play better defense; Marshall can help spearhead that effort, as she has led the team in steals each of the last two seasons.

Love that Gabbie got a little press, but TBH I think the feautured player should have been Kate Martin. She has a higher ceiling than Gabbie as a rebounder, versatile defender (can guard 1 through 4), and secondary playmaker/facilitator on offense as she showed during the BTT. Kate making a jump in her consistency would help us even more than Gabbie shooting it a bit better than she already does.

(p.s. Is anyone else routinely annoyed by Alexa Philippou from ESPN (the author of the piece)? She got the ESPN job after being a UConn beat reporter for a few years and to me it's just blatantly obvious that she came from a UConn background. Particularly annoyed me last season when she described Czinano as a "role player" for Iowa heading into the NCAA tournament.)
Yes on all accounts. Martin showed some potential driving to the basket late last season, and she still has significant room for improvement as a shooter. If anyone in the starting lineup "breaks out" it will be her.

Frankly I expect Marshall's minutes to go down this year with Davis and McCabe on the roster. She's a good shooter and decent defender, but is also limited in a number of other areas. Her physical limitations in particular make me doubt her game will improve much.

In general I think many of the top women's basketball media members have a UConn bias. Injuries at UConn get headline stories, while injuries at other programs don't get mentioned. Analysis of teams outside of UConn (and maybe South Carolina) is extremely shallow. I expect that on a UConn forum. Not on ESPN.

And aside from team bias, I also think WBB media lacks nuanced analytics discussion. In every other sport I follow, analytics writers are quick to argue against analysis based on a single statistic (usually wins above replacement). In WBB for player of the year discussions, many writers just cite Win Shares from HerHoopStats and conclude the player with the most shares is POY. I think HerHoopStats is a wonderful resource, but it's not being used as well as it could be.
 
Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting Davis to be an elite defender. Average would be nice.

Also, steals or steals per game just aren't good metrics to measure a defender by IMO. A much greater need for our system (and most systems) is perimeter defenders who can stop dribble penetration by just moving their feet and being in good position.
 
It would depend upon the team. They could have put together a MBB team that would have won the 1987 NCAA championship in a walk with just one or two Hawkeyes. Most of the teams under Hoiberg would have had more Cyclones than Hawks, as well.
I was thinking football
 
Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting Davis to be an elite defender. Average would be nice.

Also, steals or steals per game just aren't good metrics to measure a defender by IMO. A much greater need for our system (and most systems) is perimeter defenders who can stop dribble penetration by just moving their feet and being in good position.
Wouldn’t it be nice if she was our version of Cardaño-Hillary? Apparently NCH was hardly known as a defender at GMU, really famed for being their best all time shooter….but seriously upped her game on the other end of the court when coming to the B1G and became the peskiest little gremlin (which btw is what Edigar calls Davis haha).
 
Wouldn’t it be nice if she was our version of Cardaño-Hillary? Apparently NCH was hardly known as a defender at GMU, really famed for being their best all time shooter….but seriously upped her game on the other end of the court when coming to the B1G and became the peskiest little gremlin (which btw is what Edigar calls Davis haha).
That girl was quite the pest on defense........ :eek:
 
She was quite the actor too. Oscar winning performances with those flops. She might have a future in daytime soaps with her acting skills.
I get that but LOTS of people say the same thing about our team, esp. MD fans.
 
Do you think anybody redshirts Braydon roberts 5
Short answer: no.

Longer answer: I don't think that Ediger or Gyamfi will get a lot of playing time this year. Redshirting a younger player who won't play much could theoretically make sense. But I also don't think that both of them will be in a future rotation together without injury (because O'Grady, Goodman, and Stuelke are likely to play their positions the next few years). Keeping a player who might not play much for an additional season isn't a good use of a scholarship.

I do think a redshirt could make sense for McCabe. She will probably be a very good player, but will also probably be the #3 option at the 1 and 2 early in the season. But that would only be if Clark, Davis, and Marshall are fully healthy all season, and I doubt Coach Bluder would do it anyway.
 
Short answer: no.

Longer answer: I don't think that Ediger or Gyamfi will get a lot of playing time this year. Redshirting a younger player who won't play much could theoretically make sense. But I also don't think that both of them will be in a future rotation together without injury (because O'Grady, Goodman, and Stuelke are likely to play their positions the next few years). Keeping a player who might not play much for an additional season isn't a good use of a scholarship.

I do think a redshirt could make sense for McCabe. She will probably be a very good player, but will also probably be the #3 option at the 1 and 2 early in the season. But that would only be if Clark, Davis, and Marshall are fully healthy all season, and I doubt Coach Bluder would do it anyway.
Excellent points.
 
Ediger confuses me a bit. It seemed like coming in she was seen as one of the most hyped in her class. Is the problem that her skill set is more at center, but she is smaller than the other centers and needs to adjust to the 4?
Yep. Not quite tall enough to be a great option at the 5, and not quite athletic enough to be a great option at the 4. Maybe she'll take a step this year, but we're loaded at the 5, and Stuelke's athleticism at the 4 is intriguing.

FWIW Ediger is the player that has convinced me to trust my eyes when scouting players instead of prospect lists. She was ranked highly on a number of lists. When I watched some of her high school tape, I was intrigued by her offensive skill set. But it also looked like she was best suited to be a 5 in a 5 out offense, and that's not something Iowa really does. I was hoping she might fit in okay at the 4, but in hindsight, that wasn't a good fit either.
 
Yep. Not quite tall enough to be a great option at the 5, and not quite athletic enough to be a great option at the 4. Maybe she'll take a step this year, but we're loaded at the 5, and Stuelke's athleticism at the 4 is intriguing.

FWIW Ediger is the player that has convinced me to trust my eyes when scouting players instead of prospect lists. She was ranked highly on a number of lists. When I watched some of her high school tape, I was intrigued by her offensive skill set. But it also looked like she was best suited to be a 5 in a 5 out offense, and that's not something Iowa really does. I was hoping she might fit in okay at the 4, but in hindsight, that wasn't a good fit either.
All good points. I’m not rly a fan of a 5 out offense but I do wish we would mix things up sometimes to keep teams on their toes. Some pressure on the D, 2 posts on the O, maybe a 5 out O occasionally. But when your best weapons are as consistent as ours are, probably doesn’t make much sense.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT