Hawkeyes in hypothetical 8-team playoffs 1981 - 2015?

[El Simbolo]

With a few threads about an 8-team playoff and whether the Hawkeyes can win an NC out there, I decided to look back and see how many times since Fry came that Iowa would have made an 8-team playoff.

My assumptions for the playoff configuration are how I’d like to see it: The conf champs of the major conferences auto-qualify, the highest champ from the other conferences qualify if they’re ranked in the Top 16 (could say Top 12 – this is debatable), highest ranked independent qualifies if ranked in the Top 8. The 4 highest ranked champs or independents are seeded 1-4 and host the quarterfinal games, Seeds 5-8 are based solely on ranking, and the field is re-seeded before the semis based solely on rank. In the 80s I gave the SWC an auto-bid, but not the Big East or ACC (basically if you could get a major bowl to have a contract with you were a Power conf), and I treated the ACC and Independents together like today’s “Group of 5”.

1981: Iowa qualifies as conference champ, and is seeded 8. Plays at Clemson
#8 Iowa (13) (Big Ten champ) @ #1 Clemson (1) (Top Ind/small conf)
#7 Wash (12) (Pac champ) @ #2 UGA (2) (SEC champ)
#6 PSU (7) (at-large) @ #3 Nebraska (4) (Big 8 champ)
#5 Bama (3) (at-large) @ #4 Texas (6) (SWC champ)
Top 8 teams left out: 8th ranked USC (5th ranked SMU on probation)

1983: 10th ranked Iowa is third team left out
#8 UCLA (unranked) (Pac champ) @ #1 Nebraska (1) (Big 8 champ)
#7 UGA (7) (at-large) @ #2 Texas (2) (SWC champ)
#6 SMU (6) (at-large) @ #3 Auburn (3) (SEC champ)
#5 Miami (5) (Top Ind/small conf) @ #4 Illinois (4) (Big Ten champ)
Top teams left out: 8th ranked Michigan, 9th ranked BYU, 10th ranked Iowa

1985: Iowa qualifies as conference champ, and is seeded 3. Hosts Texas A&M
#8 UCLA (13) (Pac champ) @ #1 PSU (1) (Top Ind/small conf)
#7 Michigan (5) (at-large) @ #2 Oklahoma (3) (Big 8 champ)
#6 A&M (11) (SWC champ) @ #3 Iowa (4) (Big Ten champ) *UM/A&M swap to avoid IA/UM matchup
#5 Miami (2) (at-large) @ #4 Tennessee (8) (SEC champ)
Top teams left out: 6th ranked Florida, 7th ranked Nebraska

1990: Iowa qualifies as conference champ, and is seeded 8. Plays at Colorado
#8 Iowa (17) (Big Ten champ) @ #1 Colorado (1) (Big 8 champ)
#7 Tennessee (10) (SEC champ) @ #2 Ga Tech (2) (Top Ind/small conf)
#6 Wash (8) (Pac champ) @ #3 Texas (3) (SWC champ)
#5 Miami (4) (at-large) @ #4 Notre Dame (5) (Auto-qualifer)
Top teams left out: 6th ranked FSU, 7th ranked PSU

1991: 7th ranked Iowa is first team left out
#8 Nebraska (11) (Big 8 champ) @ #1 Miami (1) (Top Ind/small conf)
#7 A&M (9) (SWC champ) @ #2 Wash (2) (Pac champ)
#6 PSU (6) (at-large) @ #3 Florida (3) (SEC champ)
#5 FSU (5) (at-large) @ #4 Michigan (4) (Big Ten champ)
Top teams left out: 7th ranked Iowa, 8th ranked Alabama

2002: 5th ranked Iowa receives at-large bid as 5 seed, plays at Wazzu
#8 FSU (14) (ACC champ) @ #1 Miami (1) (Big East champ)
#7 OU (7) (Big 12 champ) @ #2 OSU (2) (Big 10 champ)
#6 USC (4) (at-large) @ #3 UGA (3) (SEC champ) *USC/Iowa swap to avoid USC/WSU matchup
#5 Iowa (5) (at-large) @ #4 Wash St (6) (Pac champ)
Top teams left out: 8th ranked K State, 9th ranked ND

2004: 12th ranked Iowa is sixth team left out
#8 Pitt (21) (ACC champ) @ #1 USC (1) (Pac champ)
#7 Mich (13) (Big 10 champ) @ #2 OU (2) (Big 12 champ)
#6 VT (8) (Big East champ) @ #3 Auburn (3) (SEC champ)
#5 Texas (4) (at-large) @ #4 Utah (6) (top G5 champ)
Top teams left out: 5th ranked Cal, 7th ranked UGA… 12th ranked Iowa

2009: 10th ranked Iowa is second team left out
#8 GT (9) (ACC champ) @ #1 Bama (1) (SEC champ)
#7 OSU (8) (Big 10 champ) @ #2 Texas (2) (Big 12 champ)
#6 Oregon (7) (Pac champ) @ #3 Cincinnati (3) (Big East champ)
#5 Florida (5) (at-large) @ #4 TCU (4) (top G5 champ)
Top teams left out: 6th ranked Boise, 10th ranked Iowa

2015: 5th ranked Iowa receives at-large bid as 5 seed, plays at OU
#8 Notre Dame (8) (auto-qualifer) @ #1 Clemson (1) (ACC champ)
#7 OSU (7) (at-large) @ #2 Bama (2) (SEC champ)
#6 Stanford (6) (Pac champ) @ #3 MSU (3) (Big 10 champ)
#5 Iowa (5) (at-large) @ #4 OU (4) (Big 12 champ)
Top teams left out: 9th ranked FSU, 18th ranked Houston

2018: Iowa nowhere near playoff, but doing this anyway
#8 Wash (9) (Pac champ) @ #1 Bama(1) (SEC champ)
#7 UCF (8) (top G5 champ) @ #2 Clemson (2) (ACC champ)
#6 OSU (6) (Big 10 champ) @ #3 ND (3) (auto-qualifier)
#5 UGA (5) (at-large) @ #4 OU (4) (Big 12 champ)
Top teams left out: 7th ranked Michigan

 

[El Simbolo]

So Iowa would have qualifie,d twice as an at-large team: 2002 and 2015. And the only time we would have qualfied within a 4-team CFP was 1985 along with PSU, Miami, and OU (playing PSU in a semi-final). Interesting that #1 PSU and #2 Miami didn't play in a bowl that year, since there were no contracts prohibiting it. The next year they played each other in the Fiesta, in a game that really increased the Fiesta's profile. I guess the Fiesta didn't have the cash in 1985 to get that matchup - or maybe PSU was ducking Miami to play in Orange Bowl instead. Funny thing, they both lost their bowls and OU finished #1

 

[towndog1]

Thanks OP...interesting read

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I’d also like to point out that 2017 and 2018 Nebraska are the 91st and 86th teams left out

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

I can see the 1985 and 2002 teams advancing to the second round. Or, having a reasonable shot at least. The 2009 team, ironically, probably could have too. What may have been that season if Stanzi doesn't go down against NW! 12-0 was within reach.

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

Interesting thread.

 

[Stoops41]

Let’s quit living in the past. Who cares what could have been. So old on this board to re live the past. Iowa is a all time 60% win team no matter how you slice it.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Good thread, thank you.

 

[SWIowahawks]

Nice work OP. 2009 Iowa would have most certainly made it in if a playoff committee were doing the rankings. They would have seen that Stanzi broke his leg and Iowa almost won at OSU without him. The computers did not factor that in.

 

[soybean]

The 91 team was much better than the 90 team.

 

[Lumas Etima]

Interesting that the 1991 team even ends up getting screwed in this hypothetical postseason.

 

[bdg8]

The 91 team was much better than the 90 team.

really? There are about 10 Iowa teams since 81 that would beat that team imo. Who did they beat that was good? The Big Ten was garbage that year and we did not play a decent non conference opponent. Then we tied a less than great BYU team in Holiday Bowl

Team W L T W L T
No. 6 Michigan $ 8 – 0 – 0 10 – 2 – 0
No. 10 Iowa 7 – 1 – 0 10 – 1 – 1
Ohio State 5 – 3 – 0 8 – 4 – 0
Indiana 5 – 3 – 0 7 – 4 – 1
Illinois 4 – 4 – 0 6 – 6 – 0
Purdue 3 – 5 – 0 4 – 7 – 0
Michigan State 3 – 5 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Wisconsin 2 – 6 – 0 5 – 6 – 0
Northwestern 2 – 6 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Minnesota 1 – 7 – 0 2 – 9 – 0

• $ – Conference champion

 

[Menace Sockeyes]

really? There are about 10 Iowa teams since 81 that would beat that team imo. Who did they beat that was good? The Big Ten was garbage that year and we did not play a decent non conference opponent. Then we tied a less than great BYU team in Holiday Bowl

Team W L T W L T
No. 6 Michigan $ 8 – 0 – 0 10 – 2 – 0
No. 10 Iowa 7 – 1 – 0 10 – 1 – 1
Ohio State 5 – 3 – 0 8 – 4 – 0
Indiana 5 – 3 – 0 7 – 4 – 1
Illinois 4 – 4 – 0 6 – 6 – 0
Purdue 3 – 5 – 0 4 – 7 – 0
Michigan State 3 – 5 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Wisconsin 2 – 6 – 0 5 – 6 – 0
Northwestern 2 – 6 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Minnesota 1 – 7 – 0 2 – 9 – 0

• $ – Conference champion

Uh, Heisman winner Ty Detmer in his final game?

 

[Quintana]

Let’s quit living in the past. Who cares what could have been. So old on this board to re live the past. Iowa is a all time 60% win team no matter how you slice it.

says we need to quit living in past... ends post by giving historic stats. weird.

 

[bdg8]

Uh, Heisman winner Ty Detmer in his final game?

That BYU team was not good. Not the same level of team that beat Miami that one year

The team we played tied to all good opponents they played

 

[KuwaitHawk]

I’d also like to point out that 2017 and 2018 Nebraska are the 91st and 86th teams left out

LOVE the kNebby reference, but you forgot the isu reference. They would be where, besides (l)Ames?

 

[El Simbolo]

I can see the 1985 and 2002 teams advancing to the second round. Or, having a reasonable shot at least. The 2009 team, ironically, probably could have too. What may have been that season if Stanzi doesn't go down against NW! 12-0 was within reach.

Even at 12-0 we wouldn’t have been in top 2 - damn Bama/Texas

 

[El Simbolo]

Interesting that the 1991 team even ends up getting screwed in this hypothetical postseason.

Fitting, isn’t it? Also note our other postseason screw job was the 1983 team that would have just missed playoff. Fiesta chose OSU team with worse record, that we beat, so we could go to road game ice bowl in Jacksonville

 

[El Simbolo]

Nice work OP. 2009 Iowa would have most certainly made it in if a playoff committee were doing the rankings. They would have seen that Stanzi broke his leg and Iowa almost won at OSU without him. The computers did not factor that in.

You referring to an 8-team playoff or current 4-team CFP? Not sure how committe would have treated TCU, Cincy, and BSU that year. All went undefeated, but TCU wasn’t B12 yet and BigEast was weak. It’s possibel that if we had hung on to beat NU with only loss to OSU in OT that we would have made top 4 despite OSU going to Rose Bowl.

It’s also possible committee would have assumed Stanzi was out for bowl, and downgraded us

 

[El Simbolo]

Let’s quit living in the past. Who cares what could have been. So old on this board to re live the past. Iowa is a all time 60% win team no matter how you slice it.

Not living in the past as much as showing that Iowa could make an 8-team playoff once a decade or so. Though while an 8-team would get us in the playoff more often, I think it reduces our chances of winning a NC. The more rounds there are (including CCGs) the more it favors the blue bloods with more depth, etc. Our best shot at an NC would be an undefeated regular season followed by a bowl win, under the old system.

 

[SWIowahawks]

You referring to an 8-team playoff or current 4-team CFP? Not sure how committe would have treated TCU, Cincy, and BSU that year. All went undefeated, but TCU wasn’t B12 yet and BigEast was weak. It’s possibel that if we had hung on to beat NU with only loss to OSU in OT that we would have made top 4 despite OSU going to Rose Bowl.

It’s also possible committee would have assumed Stanzi was out for bowl, and downgraded us

I forgot Stanzi didn’t play the last game against Minnesota. You’re probably right about them not giving Iowa the nod because of him being questionable for the bowl.

 

[soybean]

really? There are about 10 Iowa teams since 81 that would beat that team imo. Who did they beat that was good? The Big Ten was garbage that year and we did not play a decent non conference opponent. Then we tied a less than great BYU team in Holiday Bowl

Team W L T W L T
No. 6 Michigan $ 8 – 0 – 0 10 – 2 – 0
No. 10 Iowa 7 – 1 – 0 10 – 1 – 1
Ohio State 5 – 3 – 0 8 – 4 – 0
Indiana 5 – 3 – 0 7 – 4 – 1
Illinois 4 – 4 – 0 6 – 6 – 0
Purdue 3 – 5 – 0 4 – 7 – 0
Michigan State 3 – 5 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Wisconsin 2 – 6 – 0 5 – 6 – 0
Northwestern 2 – 6 – 0 3 – 8 – 0
Minnesota 1 – 7 – 0 2 – 9 – 0

• $ – Conference champion

I'm always amused when someone tries to rewrite history with a wave of the hand and pronouncing unpleasant facts as "garbage".

 

[bdg8]

I'm always amused when someone tries to rewrite history with a wave of the hand and pronouncing unpleasant facts as "garbage".

I have an opinion that the team was not as good as record. You can have your opinion.

But you can’t deny that we did not beat a good team that year

 

[The_Joker13]

Wtf is the big east getting an auto bid in y

 

[El Simbolo]

Wtf is the big east getting an auto bid in y

They had auto bid to BCS those years, so I assume they’d have been in a playoff too. Many more independents in the 80’s, so not really sure how that would have worked

 

[Hawkeyes4Life247]

Thanks for the post. This is interesting and does display an ability to get to a field of 8. Had there been conference championship games a few of those years, it could have helped or hurt us too.

 

[michael.nelson311]

I can see the 1985 and 2002 teams advancing to the second round. Or, having a reasonable shot at least. The 2009 team, ironically, probably could have too. What may have been that season if Stanzi doesn't go down against NW! 12-0 was within reach.

I think what most people don't realize is could you imagine that team with shonn greene if he would have come back?? May have been a natty.

 

[General Roman Malaise]

I can see the 1985 and 2002 teams advancing to the second round. Or, having a reasonable shot at least. The 2009 team, ironically, probably could have too. What may have been that season if Stanzi doesn't go down against NW! 12-0 was within reach.

I think what most people don't realize is could you imagine that team with shonn greene if he would have come back?? May have been a natty.

As El Simbolo said above, even a 12-0 Iowa would’ve been froze out of the old BCS NC format in 2009. That’s probably my favorite Iowa team ever and I still have to admit it wasn’t displacing undefeateds Bama or UT.

Now, had a 12-0 Iowa blown out somebody in the Rose we maybe could’ve had a split title, but even that’s a stretch.

 

[HaydenHawk8]

I think within 5 years it will be a 8-16 team playoff.

Also I think you see some smaller schools drop to FCS as opposed to moving up. I think eventually you will see some of the smaller conferences in FBS drop to FCS for the opportunity to win a NC.

 

[Melrose_Place31]

The 2002 team was one of the greatest of all time, and I'd like to know why we haven't tried to replicate that formula....I know in some cases we have (ie great TE play). But specifically the QB position...I know Brad Banks was one of those guys who waited in the wings and then got his shot and blew it up, but man, whenever we've had a solid mobile QB we've had good to great seasons. Drew Tate was one of my all-time favorites as well and very elusive. He had grit and a cockiness to him that made you love to watch. Stanley MIGHT be a future NFL talent, but my god his on field presence as a motivator and someone who looks like they are a winner is awful.

 

[mvhomerj]

I'm always amused when someone tries to rewrite history with a wave of the hand and pronouncing unpleasant facts as "garbage".

Soy, what happened to Sam Elliott? He's one of my favorites!