We have one guy that has significant money graduating. So...we got Cassioppi and can maybe can get somebody else. You guys are losing Zain and Cutch which I’m sure adds up to only .25. Therefore, you could spend .75 on the 6 or 7 guys you have coming in because we know that they all will be glad to take approximately 10% each.
Let's hypothetically say for a moment that redshirting freshmen aren't taking much of the 9.9 @ PSU . . . so, looking at the rest of the roster, who is likely to be getting significant pieces of that pie this year? Conservatively . . .
Top $ (but < full ride)
Retherford
Nolf
Joseph
Hall
Nickal
McCutcheon
N. Nevills
A Dash or Sprinkle
Keener?
Cortez
N. Lee
Rasheed
Cassar
• 7 guys in first group -- let's say they average 0.75 schollies per. [7 x .75 = 5.25]
• 5 guys in second group -- let's say they average 0.4 schollies per. [5 x 0.4 = 2]
That totals ~7.25 schollies, and so there is wiggle room to bump up my estimates for some guys, or add some redshirting studs (Berge, Manville) to the mix. But wait, Manville is ROTC, so probably not taking much, if anything.
So, when Retherford, McCutcheon, and Keener graduate after this season, there is $$ freed up to give guys like Berge, Cassar, and either Cortez or N. Lee a bump up, plus give whatever the presumably low "redshirt base" is to Teasdale, RBY, Verkleeren, J. Lee, Wittlake, Beard, and Nevills next year. Teske probably takes a meaningful chunk starting as a true freshman, though.
That scenario for next year is eye-popping, unless PSU is holding back (reserving) some money this year (Suriano's share?), plans to scale back with some guys next year, or some guys have options outside the 9.9 (e.g., rumors that a guy or two are asking for little to nothing).
So yeah, I agree that next year looks like a financial challenge that will require at least one of the fixes I just noted. But when the 3 Nasties (Nolf, Nickal, Nevills), Cortez, and Rasheed graduae the following year, that frees up substantial $$. Hypothetically, 2019-20 looks like this:
Top $ (but < full ride)
Teske
RBY
Teasdale
N. Lee
Berge
Joseph
Hall
Wittlake
Beard
S. Nevills
A Dash or Sprinkle
Verkleeren
J. Lee
Cassar
That looks tough with 10 guys in the top tier and 3 in the lower tier. But if, say, a guy like Manville (ROTC) fills in while Hall takes a redshirt year, that helps make everything fit a bit better.
Sorry for the length of this, but I actually wanted to try the exercise to see how this might work. Maybe I'm off about the average dollars top vs. middle tier guys get (and assuming bottom tier gets nothing), but if just a guy or two were to take a substantial discount, and redshirting guys get very little, then the math seems feasible. Let's put it this way, it isn't shockingly outrageous. There is a path, especially if guys are making up the difference working successful/popular camps.
The eyebrows need raise only if one presumes all studs command full rides. I'm pretty sure they don't.
Disclaimer: I do not know how much scholly money any of these guys get.