Highest Iowa seed?
- Thread starter The Vak
- Start date
I don't think so, given the strengths of their fields and "only" placing 3rd at B1Gs.
125: Drake as #3, behind Stanich and Braeden Davis. Drake has wins over Davis, Ramos (split, but finished higher at Conference tournament), Bennett, McKee. Losses to D'Augustino and Kaylor are not going to hurt Drake head-to-head against other guys stacking up in the top 5 seeds
141: Woods as #3, behind Mendez and Bartlett. Woods split with Lemley but finished higher at Conference tournament.
No way. Both looking at 4/5 at best. Mikey 6. Hopefully Franek 6 to avoid Haines. Glazier 6/7.
Who at 141 would be the 3 seed if not Woods? Ryan Jack?
Disregarding Mendez and Bartlett, nobody will beat Woods in the head-to-head (and Lemley will nullify), same for common opponents, Woods will be #3 in the rankings so that category goes to Woods, Woods is likely to be #3 in RPI (with only Jack close, but unlikely due to Woods in the Big 10 including win over Lemley), Jack will take Win% and Conference Finish categories.
Without putting too much thought into it roughly where do you see the Iowa guys seeded?
125 3rd or 4th
133 10-15 range
141 4th
149 10-15 range
157 6-8th
165 6th
174 7-9
184
197 6-10 range
285 20ish
Thanks in advance
I suspect that you've already run your projected numbers, but between Woods and Jack, won't it be 35% to 30% for Woods? Maybe I applied an outdated matrix. Or do you have Woods falling behind Jack in the Coaches Ranking?
--Head-to-Head (25%): Even because they did not wrestle this year
--Quality Wins (20%): Woods. Both have 7 QW, but due to Woods's Koderhandt and Hardy vs Cole Matthews for Jack and other QW being equal, Woods gets nod.
--Coaches Ranking (15%): Woods
--Common Opponents (10%): Even (both lost to Mendez, both beat McNeil)
--RPI (10%): I think Woods, but I'm not great at RPI, so let's move Jack to win this one
--Qualifying Event Placement (10%): Jack
--Win % (10%): Jack
Hmmmm. It seems like I should not be trusted with any math.
Wrestlestat replicates RPI and Woods is 3 and Jack is 4 so Woods gets those 10. Also, they are both 18-3 so win % is the same.
Coaches ranking is now 10 and conference placement is 15. They changed that a couple years ago.
H2H is even 12.5% each
Win % is even 5% each
Placement. Jack 15%
RPI Woods 10%
Coaches (currently Woods 3 and Jack 4). Probably flip to Jack 10%
Common 5% each
QW Can be split 20/0, 15/5, or 10/10. Not sure how they calculate this.
Based on what we have now
Woods 12.5+5+10+5 = 32.5
Jack 12.5+5+15+5 = 37.5
If Jack gets coaches he only needs 5 of QW to get the 3. If Woods gets coaches he needs 10 or more of QW to get the nod.
Thanks Madden for providing the current matrix since I was using an old matrix. Good info on the various allocation options for QW%. Thanks for re-doing my incorrect math and explaining each step along the way.
Of course! They always have a tiering system of QW so it gets pretty in depth.
Tier 1: win over an opponent with either a 90% win% or ranked top 5 in coaches or RPI. Worth 6 points
Tier 2: 80% or ranked top 10 coaches or RPI. Worth 4.5 points.
Tier 3: 70% or top 15 either. Worth 3 points.
Tier 4: 62% or top 20 either. Worth 2 points.
Tier 5: 55% or top 25 either. Worth 1 point.
Tier 6: every other win. Worth 0.5 point.
They total these up when comparing two wrestlers and then can split the points 20/0, 15/5 or 10/10.
Also the manual states they can use subjective criteria in at large selection and seeding decisions such as:
Bad losses
Ranked outside top 30 in RPI and/or Coaches
Conference Champion
Performance in last 5 matches
Number of injury default or MFF wins/losses
Best quality win
Wrestler availability (injured or medically unable to compete)
Bad losses
Ranked outside top 30 in RPI and/or Coaches
Conference Champion
Performance in last 5 matches
Number of injury default or MFF wins/losses
Best quality win
Wrestler availability (injured or medically unable to compete)
Do you have an internet link to the manual? I have not taken time to look for the manual, so if it would take you time to find the link, please tell me to find it myself instead. But it sounds like you might have the link already.
This link will take you to the page. I use the pre-championships manual, the qualifier allocation criteria link, the ncaa championships timeline and the championship webinar.
Thank you!This link will take you to the page. I use the pre-championships manual, the qualifier allocation criteria link, the ncaa championships timeline and the championship webinar.
I ran Ayala against all the conference top 3 finishers and against guys with higher win% than him who finished outside the top 3 in their conference which was Ramos and Surtin. Davis and Stanich both finish ahead of him but not by much. Ayala is quite a bit ahead of everyone in the formula except Noto from Lock Haven. I have Drake 52.5 to Noto 47.5. Drake should be the 3 but they could bump Noto for being a conference champ and Drake would be 4 but I think that’s his floor. Davis should be the 1 and Stanich the 2 if they don’t do any shifting.
Do you have who would be 5 and 6 too? I don't necessarily hate if Ayala is 4 and Davis is 1 for a potential SF, but may also depend on the potential QF matchup
Most Importantly, @jmadden1998 , how far away is that Slop Monster Deaugustino.
Watch Ayala get the 4 and Deaugustino get the 13 so it's a 2nd round matchup
I'd imagine Noto has to be in there somewhere close. Only two losses on the year and MAC champ. Not a ton of quality wins other than Camacho though. Interesting matchup for Drake if so.
If Drake is 3 then Noto will be 4 and vice versa.
I will run more comparisons tomorrow and see if I can predict DeAugustino’s seed.
Regardless of seeds, our guys need to adopt their consis mentality while they are still in the championship bracket. Seems like we have a pattern of wrestling tight until taking a loss, and then we come alive on the backside.
Ha, they’re missing “just doesn’t look like himself.”
I never thought I’d see the day where another team had Iowa’s seeds topped at all 10 weights. I’m sure all won’t go exactly to plan, but it’s something.
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Looking at the numbers again, Noto loses out to the first place conference finishers because his RPI and coaches rankings are much lower. Noto will most likely be seeded lower. I’m fairly confident Drake gets the 3.
I have at least 14 ahead of him in the calculations. My guess is he will be around 15-16 seed. Could see Davis or Stanich in the 2nd round.
A lot of truth in this for many years for the Hawks.
Really, really hope that is how the seeds come out.
Gives Glazier the most favorable draw to the semis, for sure.
Beard has been wrecking dudes this year. However, you are correct since Brooks and Hidlay are both superior. Hidlay gave Beard his only loss in a 12-3 MD. Beard has had gas tank issues in the past. I haven’t watched him this year so not sure if they are still there. 13 of his 27 matches ended early this year.
I think I saw on twitter that Real will be higher in the matrix so it would take intervention to move him below Jack. Real avenged the Lemley loss and Jack also has the loss to Mathews.
They're both 18-3. Both have one bad loss that was avenged at conference. Why would Real's loss to Lemley hurt him more than Jack's loss to Mathews?
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