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NCAA Tourney Wrestlestat simulation

jmadden1998

HR All-American
Jan 26, 2017
2,847
4,989
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I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
 
I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
Love the heavyweight result! Would really like to see AF take the gold!!
 
Im Not No Way GIF
I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
 
I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
The system must be planning on KOT breaking his arm on the way to the mat to face this new and improved Hamiti. And Kerk losing to Schultz? Someone is installing gremlins into wrestlestat’s tool…
 
I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
When was the last time ISU topped us at Nationals?
 
If either Franek or Glazier simply won 1 more match and AA'd that could put them in 3rd instead of 8th. If both AA, that would give them a great chance at 2nd. If you can just accept that PSU is running away with it and enjoy the race for 2nd, this tournament could actually be very entertaining. If not, you aren't going to like it 1 tiny bit...
 
What would be a great feature add to Wrestlestat that may make it more fun for simulations like this, would be the ability to create your own model and add simulated data to it; as in, you start with the current existing model, and then you add results to it and see how it affects different outcomes.

For tournament simulation, it would look like this:
1. Simluate the first round
2. Add the simulated results into the model
3. Simulate the second round and first round consolations
4. Add the simulated results into the model
etc

As more matches get wrestled, the data gets added to the model and the predictions will adjust accordingly. But simulating a whole tournament based purely on the pre-tournament model may not be the most accurate thing because it's not taking into account any "upsets" that occur during the tournament itself.


In general I think it would be fun for users to be able to simulate data on their own as well and see how the rankings or predictions get affected, not just for tournaments.
 
Did you watch how Cass was able to get to his legs and take Schultz down in multiple matches? Kerk would be doing that in fast forward x3...

I did, but still only a 3-1 SV match their final one. But you know who didn't do that when they wrestled? Kerk. Schultz beat him badly in fact which makes the long anticipated rematch interesting to me at least. It took Kerk multiple meetings with Cass before he finally flipped the script and was able to win, and he's only going to have one chance to do that with Schultz to right that ship.
 
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I did, but still only a 3-1 SV match their final one. But you know who didn't do that when they wrestled? Kerk. Schultz beat him badly in fact which makes the long anticipated rematch interesting to me at least. It took Kerk multiple meetings with Cass before he finally flipped the script and was able to win, and he's only going to have one chance to do that with Schultz to right that ship.
Hey, I am a big fan of Zeke and ASU. I would be more than happy to see Schultz pull it off. I am just not seeing it. Kerk is a monumentally better wrestler since that match. In fact, I would be surprised, with 3 point takedowns, if that match didn't end up a MD or very close to one...
 
Hey, I am a big fan of Zeke and ASU. I would be more than happy to see Schultz pull it off. I am just not seeing it. Kerk is a monumentally better wrestler since that match. In fact, I would be surprised, with 3 point takedowns, if that match didn't end up a MD or very close to one...

Could certainly turn out that way. Heavyweights results can be odd sometimes. Kerk dominated Parris for a bit , who beat everybody else until last year when he suddenly couldn't. It was a reverse of Cass-Kerk. I don't think Bastida beats Wyatt twice in a row either, but I didn't expect Wyatt to get ridden by Kerk last year after looking good in the first period. Kerk will probably finally win a title, but hoping it doesn't come too easy for him.
 
I did, but still only a 3-1 SV match their final one. But you know who didn't do that when they wrestled? Kerk. Schultz beat him badly in fact which makes the long anticipated rematch interesting to me at least. It took Kerk multiple meetings with Cass before he finally flipped the script and was able to win, and he's only going to have one chance to do that with Schultz to right that ship.
You're talking about a match from 2021? Kerk is a completely different animal now. Using a match from 3 years ago as a comparison is flawed logic.

Yes, stuff happens at nationals but Kerk and Bastida have lapped the field this year at HWT. If I'm picking anyone to knock off Kerk, it's gonna be Bastida. He dominated Hendrickson last week.
 
Cornell's 184 lber Foca defaulted @ 4:03 during the 3rd place match of EIWA's. Does anyone have a "feel" for the extent of his injury?
 
I did, but still only a 3-1 SV match their final one. But you know who didn't do that when they wrestled? Kerk. Schultz beat him badly in fact which makes the long anticipated rematch interesting to me at least. It took Kerk multiple meetings with Cass before he finally flipped the script and was able to win, and he's only going to have one chance to do that with Schultz to right that ship.
Hope it’s as exiting as you’re predicting. The more PSU guys to the cons the better!
 
You're talking about a match from 2021? Kerk is a completely different animal now. Using a match from 3 years ago as a comparison is flawed logic.

Yes, stuff happens at nationals but Kerk and Bastida have lapped the field this year at HWT. If I'm picking anyone to knock off Kerk, it's gonna be Bastida. He dominated Hendrickson last week.
That’s my pick as well.
 
If either Franek or Glazier simply won 1 more match and AA'd that could put them in 3rd instead of 8th. If both AA, that would give them a great chance at 2nd. If you can just accept that PSU is running away with it and enjoy the race for 2nd, this tournament could actually be very entertaining. If not, you aren't going to like it 1 tiny bit...
I agree completely and will still enjoy the tournament and pull for our guys. We aren’t good enough and we all know that. We do have a lot of really likeable guys and I hope they do well. I fully understand that is not the point, but still a great three days.
 
What would be a great feature add to Wrestlestat that may make it more fun for simulations like this, would be the ability to create your own model and add simulated data to it; as in, you start with the current existing model, and then you add results to it and see how it affects different outcomes.

For tournament simulation, it would look like this:
1. Simluate the first round
2. Add the simulated results into the model
3. Simulate the second round and first round consolations
4. Add the simulated results into the model
etc

As more matches get wrestled, the data gets added to the model and the predictions will adjust accordingly. But simulating a whole tournament based purely on the pre-tournament model may not be the most accurate thing because it's not taking into account any "upsets" that occur during the tournament itself.


In general I think it would be fun for users to be able to simulate data on their own as well and see how the rankings or predictions get affected, not just for tournaments.
You don’t think AI is capable of simulating upsets on the fly?
 
I ran the entire bracket through the wrestlestat comparison tool. Here are the results.

Team Scores (Top 10)

1. Penn St 150
2. Ohio St 73
3. Oklahoma St 62.5
4. NC State 60
5. Cornell 58
5. Iowa St 58
5. Nebraska 58
8. Iowa 57.5
9. Missouri 53
10. Lehigh 52.5

125

1. Ramos
2. Ayala
3. Davis
4. Stanich
5. McKee
6. Spratley
7. Noto
8. Surtin

133

1. Fix
2. Arujau
3. Bouzakis
4. Crookham
5. Nagao
6. Shawver
7. Bailey
8. Frost

Teske goes 2-2. Beats Cardinal, Loses to Crookham, Beats Brown, Loses to Nagao.

141

1. Mendez
2. Woods
3. Bartlett
4. Hardy
5. Jamison
6. Echemendia
7. McNeil
8. Matthews

Jamison from Okie St beats Bartlett in the quarters and then Woods beats him in the semi’s.

149

1. Henson
2. Kasak
3. Watters
4. Lovett
5. Parco
6. Arrington
7. Gomez
8. Kinner

Rathjen beats Williams, loses to Henson, beats Swisher, beats Miller, loses to Parco in the round of 12.

157

1. Haines
2. Shapiro
3. Scott
4. Teemer
5. Downey
6. Robb
7. Mauller
8. Andonian

Franek beats Blaze, beats Kellar, loses to Teemer and loses to Downey in the round of 12.

165

1. Hamiti
2. Mesenbrink
3. Carr
4. O’Toole
5. Caliendo
6. Amine
7. Ramirez
8. Hall

Hamiti beats Carr in the quarters and O’Toole in the semis. Caliendo loses to Mesenbrink in the semis, loses to Carr and then beats Amine for 5th.

174

1. Starocci
2. Welsh
3. Lewis
4. Griffith
5. Gaitan
6. Ruth
7. Kennedy
8. Wolak

Kennedy loses to Griffith in the quarters, beats DeVos, loses to Lewis and beats Wolak for 7th.

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Plott
3. Rogotzke
4. Pinto
5. Salazar
6. Fishback
7. Berge
8. Hawks

Truax beats Pine, loses to Hawks, beats Soldano and loses to Foca.

197

1. Brooks
2. Sloan
3. Elam
4. Hidlay
5. Beard
6. Jaxon Smith
7. Cardenas
8. Poznanski

Glazier beats Andy Smith, loses to Allred, beats Ben Smith, beats Novak, loses to Beard in the round of 12.

285

1. Hendrickson
2. Schultz
3. Kerkvliet
4. Bastida
5. Taylor
6. Pitzer
7. Trephan
8. Elam

Hill loses to Trephan, beats Kluever, loses to Ghadiali

Schultz beats Kerkvliet in the semis.

Tom Ryan must have hacked the system. 😂😂

16 seed Bouzakis finished 3rd, 6 seed Welsh finishes 2nd and 18 seed Rogotzke finishes 3rd.
8th place is totally UNEXCEPTABLE!🤬🤯
 
You guys keep bringing up Brands, I think Kennedy does just as good if not better. He has really started to look good since the beginning of the season when he was a bit undersized. He now looks like a natural 174.
 
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