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How bad does Iowa make Rivals look?

It would be except it’s inaccurate..in the 2002 class only Elgin, Merrick, Paschal and Jovon Johnson all played in the NFL....Solomon was a WR in that group...

Before that Clark, Gallery, Sanders all made NFL as 2 stars...

Buy my last count and I’m not going to do it again. Iowa has put somewhere in the neighborhood of 30+2 star/walk-ons in the NFL.

It’s a ridiculous number and somebody actually wrote an article on it a while back that if you were a 2-star at Iow the likelihood of you making the NFL is better than four stars at most places...

By percentage yes 4 and 5s are higher..,That does not take into account miss-rankings and therefore there are still way more 3s and 2s. They do not rank all these kids right it’s impossible. It’s also why teams like Wisconsin and Iowa who are way better at seeing talent then rivals succeed.

There is an incredible misnomer out there that continually talks about How high recruiting rankings led to national championships. The reality is it’s leading to national championships at Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson… The rest of those top ranked teams are wildly hit & miss, just like Iowa...

Texas, USC, Auburn, Miami, Florida, Tenn, Michigan, etc, etc, etc....it’s a formula and every team has to find their own.

Just off of memory just to show you how low 11 is....Babs, Mike Humpal, Charles Godfrey, Scott Chandler, Allan Reisner, Mike Meyers, Bradley, Fletcher, several offensive lineman I can’t remember....Sean Considine, Pagel, Jewel, Hitchens, Niemann....There are more I just can’t remember them now....There have even been several that started at Iowa that didn’t end up there that were two stars...Benny Sapp Jewel Hampton, Desman Moses....

If you were a 2-star player at Iowa you have a legitimate chance to make the NFL. I add walk on‘s in because they are recruited players and clearly they were less than two stars.

Were they get in trouble is when they have classes with 10+2 stars....that is a bad recipe and indicative of running out of options...when they are handpicking four or five or six...those usually turn out really good. Hard for me to criticize the staff when they offer a two star 6, 8, 10 or 12 months ahead of time. Remember Hockenson was a 2-star when they first offered, so was Stanley, so was Toren Young and I also take umbrage with the fact that we pretend like Hockenson was ranked correctly...hell he was an intregal part of the offense by his red shirt freshman year...that’s not indicative of a low three star player...

The amount of true freshman still playing at four stars is still pretty low... it’s a bad metric.

Here are the two things I have begin to look for with Iowa as it pertains to two stars… If the kid shows up on the two deeps by his red shirt sophomore year the likelihood is really good he’s going to end up being a major contributor, the same with walkons...if not then they are going to flame out and probably transfer.

That’s why guys like Seth Benson and Merriwether and Riley Moss show up so early that’s pretty indicative of the fact that they’re going to be great Hawkeyes.

It’s also indicative of the fact that they were ranked erroneously.

First of all, I specified that I started with the 2005 class and why. I also specified that I tried to keep it to guys who had been on a gameday roster during that time.
You are free to post your own research.
 
It also doesn’t count great Hawkeyes like Robinson, Hinkel, Brodell, Solomon as I mentioned, Greenwood, Gervase, Canzeri, Wadley, Easley, etc...
 
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First of all, I specified that I started with the 2005 class and why. I also specified that I tried to keep it to guys who had been on a gameday roster during that time.
You are free to post your own research.

I did...
 

Per the Rivals commitment lists by year, here are the two star players who made a gameday roster for an NFL team between the 2005 and 2016 classes.

2006-Karl Klug, Amari Spievey
2007-Allen Reisner, Mike Daniels, Adam Gettis
2009-Micah Hyde
2010-Anthony Hitchens
2013-Josey Jewell
2014-Josh Jackson, Ben Niemann

So, I was mistaken. Ten, not eleven Two stars in the 12-year span I researched. I chose that span because that encompasses all the players currently in the league and those who have played during that window. I had no intention of researching every Hawkeye to ever play on the League.
 
Completely ok with your disagreement.

It would be interesting to see a nationwide follow up of star rankings and individual success. If I had to guess, I would say that their star rating would align well - i.e. more 5*'s do well than 4's as a % of the total, 4's do better than 3's, etc. - and assuming this is true why would they change their evaluation system?

Outliers are part of every prediction model that exists - weather, the economy, movies ....

The stars measure kids as they are when they measure them. They don't look at a 240 OL kid and think, "Boy if this kid can gain 60 or 70 pounds he would be a 5*". Some kids won't gain the weight, or will gain the weight but be a fat slob. Some kid might flourish at, say, Iowa, but be a dud at Illinois. There is no reasonable way to "predict" future performance for thousands of kids. That's why it's up to the coaching staff to work so hard, see the kids up close, meet their families, have them interact with teammates, etc.

Bob Sanders was a 2* that became the Defensive MVP in the NFL. He was an outlier, they happen - they expect them to happen. But the recruiting services aren't going to change their model to make undersized defensive guys 5's because they missed on him.

You are 100% dead on with your assessment of fives versus fours and so on and so on...

And I don’t think anybody that shares my position would ever argue the percentages with you. But I don’t know any other way to explain it so I’ll try it this way...

If you have a generic service that buys cars for your dealership or merchandise for your retail outlet however you wanna look at it. Some of them will be pretty good at it some of them will be OK at it and some of them won’t be very good at it and they will have territories or specialties....

If you have your own in-house buyers for merchandise and they are really really really good at what they do that is when you have Iowa and Wisconsin....

There are more than “some” outliers, there are hundreds of them and Iowa has excelled over and over and over at finding them… As I have said if they sign 10+2 stars they are likely to be in trouble. But when they’re signing four and five routinely those kids end up being very good at least two of them often times three of them and maybe more...that’s as good a percentage as four stars are panning out elsewhere.

Iowa has a very good system except as we have all lamented wide receiver and yes sometimes they have holes. But so do the routine top 25 recruiting teams that’s why they’re not beating Alabama Ohio State or Clemson.
 
It also doesn’t count great Hawkeyes like Robinson, Hinkel, Brodell, Solomon as I mentioned, Greenwood, Gervase, Canzeri, Wadley, Easley, etc...

Not one of those guys made or has made an NFL gameday roster. Bradley Fletcher was class of 2004.
 
Per the Rivals commitment lists by year, here are the two star players who made a gameday roster for an NFL team between the 2005 and 2016 classes.

2006-Karl Klug, Amari Spievey
2007-Allen Reisner, Mike Daniels, Adam Gettis
2009-Micah Hyde
2010-Anthony Hitchens
2013-Josey Jewell
2014-Josh Jackson, Ben Niemann

So, I was mistaken. Ten, not eleven Two stars in the 12-year span I researched. I chose that span because that encompasses all the players currently in the league and those who have played during that window. I had no intention of researching every Hawkeye to ever play on the League.

I’m not sure why you’re arguing with me. I’ve been down this road 100+ times. I get where you’re coming from but there are way more than that so it was inaccurate.

Right off the bat where is Godfrey he played in the league for six or seven years.
 
Not one of those guys made or has made an NFL gameday roster. Bradley Fletcher was class of 2004.

And Brandon Meyers he caught 14 passes in a game for Oakland one year setting the Raiders record for tight ends
 
Per the Rivals commitment lists by year, here are the two star players who made a gameday roster for an NFL team between the 2005 and 2016 classes.

2006-Karl Klug, Amari Spievey
2007-Allen Reisner, Mike Daniels, Adam Gettis
2009-Micah Hyde
2010-Anthony Hitchens
2013-Josey Jewell
2014-Josh Jackson, Ben Niemann

So, I was mistaken. Ten, not eleven Two stars in the 12-year span I researched. I chose that span because that encompasses all the players currently in the league and those who have played during that window. I had no intention of researching every Hawkeye to ever play on the League.

You need to check your sources they’re not accurate...
 
I’m not sure why you’re arguing with me. I’ve been down this road 100+ times. I get where you’re coming from but there are way more than that so it was inaccurate.

Right off the bat where is Godfrey he played in the league for six or seven years.

Godfrey was class of 2004-same as Fletcher. I was clear about why I chose the years I did and I think twelve years are adequate to present a fair picture. Rivals only started rating players in 2002. It would be fair to assume they have gotten better at it in the years since. I posted my list-post your list of players who have made a 53-man roster.
 
You do realize most players who sign a free-agent contract never see a gameday roster, right?
 
I listed my source. You are free to check it.

Don’t need to as I said I’ve ran this down 100 times I know how many two stars they put me NFL Rob Brugemann and Matt Tobinn are two more walk on’s that played in the NFL.

Your list didn’t include two people I know for certain played in the NFL for quite a while.
 
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And Brandon Meyers he caught 14 passes in a game for Oakland one year setting the Raiders record for tight ends

Sigh.
Myers was class of 04. See comment about Rivals getting better at their rating system in later years. In the first six years of my span, they put seven Two sta
Don’t need to as I said I’ve ran this down 100 times I know how many two stars they put me NFL Rob Brugemann and Matt Tobinn are two more walk on’s that played in the NFL.

Your list didn’t include two people I know for certain played in the NFL for quite a while.

It doesn't include Casey Kreiter-he is a former walk-on who is indeed on a roster. Bruggeman was also a walk-on in the 05 class so we can bump that to 12. I can't find a Rivals profile for him so I will assume he was a two star. He didn't show in the commitment list because he was a walk-on.

From 2005-2010, seven guys on that list made rosters. From 2011-2016, only three did. Why the change? It could be two things-Rivals may have improved their act or Iowa may have improved their recruiting. It is actually a little of both. Iowa signed 48 two stars from 05-10; only 32 from 11-16. If Two stars are the preferred vessel for NFL futures, why are they signing less of them?
 
I actually have forgotten a lot of them below I’m going to a link an article by Blair Sanderson from I think last year...

Things of note we were accrued a lot less 2 - stars than we used to and part of that I honestly believe is because rivals has started giving some of these guys the Iowa bump, kids that we initially committed as two stars that later become threes… Like Desmond king, like Stanley, like Young, like Hockenson, like Kittle....

And we still have them hitting the depth chart pretty early to this day....

https://iowa.rivals.com/news/top-two-star-recruits-of-the-ferentz-era
 
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Sigh.
Myers was class of 04. See comment about Rivals getting better at their rating system in later years. In the first six years of my span, they put seven Two sta


It doesn't include Casey Kreiter-he is a former walk-on who is indeed on a roster. Bruggeman was also a walk-on in the 05 class so we can bump that to 12. I can't find a Rivals profile for him so I will assume he was a two star. He didn't show in the commitment list because he was a walk-on.

From 2005-2010, seven guys on that list made rosters. From 2011-2016, only three did. Why the change? It could be two things-Rivals may have improved their act or Iowa may have improved their recruiting. It is actually a little of both. Iowa signed 48 two stars from 05-10; only 32 from 11-16. If Two stars are the preferred vessel for NFL futures, why are they signing less of them?


You probably better read everything I’ve written in here and then get back with me on the 2-star thought. I’ve referenced my feelings on it multiple times.

Incidentally “sigh” is an attempt at condescension. It’s not working but that’s what it is....just sayin’
 
I actually have forgotten a lot of them below I’m going to a link an article by Blair Sanderson from I think last year...

Things of note we were accrued a lot less to stars than we used to and part of that I honestly believe is because rivals has started giving some of these guys the Iowa pump kids that we initially committed his two stars later become threes… Like Desmond king, like Stanley, like Young, like Hockenson, like Kittle....

And we still have them hitting the depth chart pretty early to this day....

https://iowa.rivals.com/news/top-two-star-recruits-of-the-ferentz-era

There was no one in Blair's article I didn't mention. Again, list the guys from 05-16 I missed that made 53 man rosters. I'll be here all week.
 
There was no one in Blair's article I didn't mention. Again, list the guys from 05-16 I missed that made 53 man rosters. I'll be here all week.


Are you not understanding I’m not at all concerned with when they played? Nor that your list skipped Brandon Meyers or that we continue to sign high end 2-stars yearly...

We have put in 3 - 2-stars & 2-low end 3-stars in just the last two drafts.

I think the thing I’m enjoying the most about this diatribe is from time to time I have people accuse me of arrogance and condescension and they are woefully unaware of how they act themselves… It’s been pretty clear in this thread as you toss in “I’ll be here all week”… LOL

See the difference between you and me I don’t get offended by that stuff, it doesn’t bother me. I know you’re trying to be catty and in all honesty I haven’t said anything that’s inaccurate and I haven’t said anything you can refute...my position has always been the same.

Nor do I care when these kids played. All I know is Iowa has put in 30+ walk on’s & two stars in the NFL since Kirk got there and they are still doing it to this day and they will continue to do so.

It is never going away.... they will have multiple high-end two star performers on the roster this year again.

Why.....Because rivals ranked them wrong and Iowa knew it. That’s always been my point, Iowa is better at finding talent than rivals is at ranking it.
 
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You probably better read everything I’ve written in here and then get back with me on the 2-star thought. I’ve referenced my feelings on it multiple times.

Incidentally “sigh” is an attempt at condescension. It’s not working but that’s what it is....just sayin’

You keep eluding the facts that I posted. You have listed at least a dozen guys who played before the period I listed-not in one post but in multiple posts which tells me you either didn't pay attention to the parameters I listed or are trying to be intentionally disingenuous. It isn't condescension. It is frustration. I made an honest post based on information from this very website. I went to considerable pains to determine which players actually made an active NFL roster. You have done none of that. All you have done is patch together fragmented lists of guys who at some point were on a practice roster. It was totally unnecessary on your part. I wasn't flaming the coaching staff. I believe they have improved recruiting significantly. This is just another example of you wanting everyone to kneel at your throne of endless knowledge when in fact you don't know what the hell you are talking about. I have done my work on this. The evidence is what it is. More stars has been and still is a valid statistical predictor of making the NFL. THAT is wha this thread was about-not insulting or defending Iowa's efforts over the years.
 
Are you not understanding I’m not at all concerned with when they played? Nor that your list skipped Brandon Meyers or that we continue to sign high end 2-stars yearly...

We have put in 3 - 2-stars & 2-low end 3-stars in just the last two drafts.

I think the thing I’m enjoying the most about this diatribe is from time to time I have people accuse me of arrogance and condescension and they are woefully unaware of how they act themselves… It’s been pretty clear in this thread as you toss in “I’ll be here all week”… LOL

See the difference between you and me I don’t get offended by that stuff, it doesn’t bother me. I know you’re trying to be catty and in all honesty I haven’t said anything that’s inaccurate and I haven’t said anything you can refute...my position has always been the same.

Nor do I care when these kids played. All I know is Iowa has put in 30+ walk on’s & two stars in the NFL since Kirk got there and they are still doing it to this day and they will continue to do so.

It is never going away.... they will have multiple high-end two star performers on the roster this year again.

Why.....Because rivals ranked them wrong and Iowa knew it. That’s always been my point, Iowa is better at finding talent than rivals is at ranking it.

Well it isn't a coincidence you have as few likes as you do. You talk down to people all the time. I didn't seek you out in this thread. Someone made a claim I believed to be incorrect. I did about three hours worth of research to get an accurate picture and posted what I found from Rivals own records, cross-referencing to see which guys ever made a 53-man roster, You came along and told me and a person who responded to me that it was inaccurate. It wasn't except for Myers and that was because he didn't appear in the database because he walked on. Everyone else you listed was either before the time period I listed or never made a gameday roster. My data stands. I am done with this.
 
You are 100% dead on with your assessment of fives versus fours and so on and so on...

And I don’t think anybody that shares my position would ever argue the percentages with you. But I don’t know any other way to explain it so I’ll try it this way...

If you have a generic service that buys cars for your dealership or merchandise for your retail outlet however you wanna look at it. Some of them will be pretty good at it some of them will be OK at it and some of them won’t be very good at it and they will have territories or specialties....

If you have your own in-house buyers for merchandise and they are really really really good at what they do that is when you have Iowa and Wisconsin....

There are more than “some” outliers, there are hundreds of them and Iowa has excelled over and over and over at finding them… As I have said if they sign 10+2 stars they are likely to be in trouble. But when they’re signing four and five routinely those kids end up being very good at least two of them often times three of them and maybe more...that’s as good a percentage as four stars are panning out elsewhere.

Iowa has a very good system except as we have all lamented wide receiver and yes sometimes they have holes. But so do the routine top 25 recruiting teams that’s why they’re not beating Alabama Ohio State or Clemson.

I agree with you.

But the post was about Rivals or other recruiting services changing the way they rate high school players because Iowa turns some 2* ad 3 guys into NFL players - I don't think they will, and that was the point I was trying to make.

I was not suggesting that stars don't matter - I think they DO matter. It's just not the only thing that matters.
 
The prior and current Nebraska staff has also recruited a lot of marginal players with high recruiting rankings. These are kids that have flaked out of the program with grade issues causing them not to be admitted, kids with character issues whether that is legal (drugs, child porn - yikes) or attitude (missing class, late for workout stuff, etc), or guys that simply were over-ranked. When you measure that in the roster, the high classes they have gotten just aren't impressive. They're still one of the lower-ranked teams in the Big Ten West by talent rating in many of the mainstream predictive analytical models.
I didn’t know that. I like their offense though. If they can just be decent on defense, they will be tough.
 
Rivals, nor any other site, simply can't factor in things for which they have no ability to measure.
A critical one being the maturation that happens when some 18 yo high school kids become 21 yo young men.
Having the physical measurables is a great place to start. It is far, far from a gaurantee as to how they will ultimately perform come game time.
Exactly, Rivals can't measure heart and toughness.
 
Are you not understanding I’m not at all concerned with when they played? Nor that your list skipped Brandon Meyers or that we continue to sign high end 2-stars yearly...

We have put in 3 - 2-stars & 2-low end 3-stars in just the last two drafts.

I think the thing I’m enjoying the most about this diatribe is from time to time I have people accuse me of arrogance and condescension and they are woefully unaware of how they act themselves… It’s been pretty clear in this thread as you toss in “I’ll be here all week”… LOL

See the difference between you and me I don’t get offended by that stuff, it doesn’t bother me. I know you’re trying to be catty and in all honesty I haven’t said anything that’s inaccurate and I haven’t said anything you can refute...my position has always been the same.

Nor do I care when these kids played. All I know is Iowa has put in 30+ walk on’s & two stars in the NFL since Kirk got there and they are still doing it to this day and they will continue to do so.
Give it up grayhair81...cmhawks99 "wins" this debate hook, line, and sinker.
It is never going away.... they will have multiple high-end two star performers on the roster this year again.

Why.....Because rivals ranked them wrong and Iowa knew it. That’s always been my point, Iowa is better at finding talent than rivals is at ranking it.
 
Well it isn't a coincidence you have as few likes as you do. You talk down to people all the time. I didn't seek you out in this thread. Someone made a claim I believed to be incorrect. I did about three hours worth of research to get an accurate picture and posted what I found from Rivals own records, cross-referencing to see which guys ever made a 53-man roster, You came along and told me and a person who responded to me that it was inaccurate. It wasn't except for Myers and that was because he didn't appear in the database because he walked on. Everyone else you listed was either before the time period I listed or never made a gameday roster. My data stands. I am done with this.
Wow, you did 3 hours of work...get a life:)
 
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