I think this is likely correct. IIRC, someone posted a source (no idea how credible) that Iowa was in the top 20 for NIL funds.
I believe Lester can produce a competent offense (and has already proven that) with better talent at wide receiver and quarterback. The problem is the stench of Brian Ferentz is still fairly fresh and kids don’t want to play for a coach who punts on fourth and short in plus territory.
In short, Captain Fossil is too radically conservative and wants to sit on any sort of lead in the third or fourth quarter. That doesn’t inspire kids with options to jump on board, especially when other schools can match or exceed NIL offers.
Kirk needs to accept that he has to evolve to keep pace in this era of college football or the Iowa program is going to get left behind.