I don't get how many Iowa fans are underestimating the Illini

[ghostOfHomer777]

If you consider specific match-ups ... there is plenty to be concerned about.

1. The Illini has a VERY talented DE by the name of Smoot. Smoot already has an impressive 8 or 9 TFLs on the season. I believe he's going to be the one lined up against Croston. As confident as I am in Croston developing into a high-quality O-linemen for us ... this is still a mismatch in the Illini's favor.
2. The Illini actually have some good cover-corners. Given that Tevaun is out ... we don't have a guy who can blow the top off their coverage. That will allow them to expend more resources trying to slow/stop our running game.
3. The Illini have 40 or 41 TFLs on the season. Thus, they're very capable of forcing the Iowa O off schedule. If that happens, that will obviously make it harder for us to score ... and that could keep the score close. If that happens ... then it could be anybody's game.
4. The Illini do a REALLY good job of incorporating the running back into their passing game. That is still a relative weakness of our D. Wes Lunt is also arguably the most talented QB the D has faced to date - so he has the ability to connect with the RBs in those mismatches.
5. While Dez King is an obvious talent, our passing D is still a work-in-progress. While our D is good at slowing the running game - the Illini has the sort of passing game that can exploit us in coverage. They should be able to move the ball against us pretty well. Bill Cubit is a good offensive-minded coach.
6. Bill Cubit is the same coach that led Western Michigan into Kinnick against Iowa in 2007 - and exited a victor. His game-plan exploited our bend-but-not-break D to its fullest. He'll attempt to do the same thing this Saturday.

While I definitely believe that Iowa is the better team ... this game still has all the elements of a "trap game." In no way, shape, or form am I going to assume that this game is going to be a cake-walk.

 

[DewHawk]

Agree this game will be a dog fight IMO. I thought they played well against the Fuskers and showed a lot of heart. I actually think their new coach (interim I guess) is a real update to the previous head coaches.

 

[Dauminator]

1-3: Illinois' defense is smoke and mirrors until they do it against someone other than the sisters of the poor and the worst Nebraska team in memory. Missing Tevaun hurts, but I think Jerminic will be better this week and help provide that threat. If I were GD, I'd send Parker on a couple fly routes as well to give them something to think about.

4: you mean the RB that's injured and out of the game? I'm not worried about him.

5: Huh? Our secondary is one of our strengths. ???

6: Agreed that Cubit is a good coach getting the most out of what he has. Great job by him with this immediate turnaround. If I were them, I'd sign him up now.

But . . . good coach or not this is an inferior team. I don't think it will be easy but I fully expect Iowa to win.

 

[theVoicefromtheTomb]

We are not talented enough to overlook anyone.

 

[swihawk]

I think this could be a tough game.

 

[larrygreenwallswildride]

Regarding both the Illinois and Indiana games, I would not be surprised by what unfolds. Could be all over the map.

 

[hawkit3113]

They will test our defensive backs. Believe that. This might be the best passing attack we have faced this season.

We just need to get pressure on Lunt and we will be fine.

 

[IACub]

I'm sorry, but there is no way we lose this game, and it won't even be close. We beat them last year at Champaign, and we're a much better team this year. They just lost their starting running back, their coaching staff is in transition, Greg Davis should be able to figure out how to block ONE GUY after watching tape of Wisconsin, and their QB is at best above average. I just don't see them coming into our homecoming game when we're riding a 5-0 high and walking out with a win. This not even mentioning they haven't been in Kinnick since 2007, they're a border rival, and the crowd will be into the game (I'll be there to make sure).

Canzeri for 150 yards, Iowa wins 31-10.

 

[Qued18]

-@home
-their d is not on par with Wisconsin or Pitt think we can run the ball
-think we have the best db's in the B1G as a unit. Throw at us bro
-most cohesive team in KF era one for all all for one

 

[whatsup12579er]

I don't see the Illini as much of a threat. Iowa's defense should be able to hold them to a low score and Iowa's offense will be much improved compared to last week. Illinois D isn't as good as Wiscy, CJ will play better and it won't be as windy this week.

 

[Rustys Dad]

Not sure who is overlooking Illinois. This Iowa team can't afford to overlook anyone - and I doubt that it is (maybe some fans are). Illinois is always an athletic team. It will have a chip on its shoulder. I think the saving grace is I think this Iowa team is different this year. I don't think it will overlook anyone and I think it will come to play every Saturday ... I will say this: I am glad the game is in Iowa City ...

 

[Packer54]

Not sure anyone is overlooking them, especially our coaches and team and frankly that is all that matters when it comes to overlooking someone. I think our guys are focused and know each week is a new week. They are playing together and I don't think they are overlooking anyone. I have to believe if we can run for about 150 on Wisconsin we should be able to put 200 up on Illinois. Weather not an issue this week so running well with play action gives CJ much better looks. Offense has to put a lid on the turnovers(as well as special teams), especially when putting our D up against our own goal line. No "freebies" so to speak. Illinois did a nice job against Nebraska, but no way, no how should Nebraska have gagged on that game. I too am glad it is at home and hopefully in front of a close to sell out fired up fan base that hopefully will help keep the juice running through Kinnick even with an early start.....our students are showing they are not a UW student section. They are showing up n time and ready to roll. Need them again.

Just looked at the weather again....clear day. 60 at kickoff. Wind not a factor until potentially around 1pm when it picks up to 17-18 mph. Get on the early boys!!

 

[LincolnHawkeye]

If you take away their first 2 cupcakes, the Illini's stats don't look so great, they are giving up 4.4 yards per carry to their last 3 opponents, including 254(6.9 YPC) to North Carolina and 187(5.5 YPC) to Nebraska. I think Iowa can pound their way to a win on the ground in this one if they need to. We ran for over 300 yards against them last year. Their offensive attack doesnt look too daunting either when you take out the cupcakes. Over the last 3 games, they've only rushed for 4.3 yards per carry, and have only gotten 5.0 yards per passing attempt, while completing 53% of their passes.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I realize everyone is high on the hawks, but this is a "trap" game. Got NW looming in the distance, hard to not look ahead to a top 25 showdown next week.

The illini will dink and dunk their way down the field. They will use short passes and try to get match-ups vs our LB's. It could be tough, but I think the hawks make the adjustments and shut them down.

Iowa 38
Illini 20

I think it will be a good game to start off with, but I think the hawks can wear down their defense by running the ball. CJB had a bad game last week, I think the rebounds this week.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

I'm sorry, but there is no way we lose this game, and it won't even be close. We beat them last year at Champaign, and we're a much better team this year. They just lost their starting running back, their coaching staff is in transition, Greg Davis should be able to figure out how to block ONE GUY after watching tape of Wisconsin, and their QB is at best above average. I just don't see them coming into our homecoming game when we're riding a 5-0 high and walking out with a win. This not even mentioning they haven't been in Kinnick since 2007, they're a border rival, and the crowd will be into the game (I'll be there to make sure).

Canzeri for 150 yards, Iowa wins 31-10.

he should have been able to do this as an in-game adjustment. He could not and that's sad. There are simple play calls to slow down defenses that are over aggressive. He just didn't use them.

 

[hawkit3113]

CJ did look human on Sat. He needs to bounce back in a big way. We need him riding high for the Northwestern game.

 

[IACub]

I realize everyone is high on the hawks, but this is a "trap" game. Got NW looming in the distance, hard to not look ahead to a top 25 showdown next week.

The illini will dink and dunk their way down the field. They will use short passes and try to get match-ups vs our LB's. It could be tough, but I think the hawks make the adjustments and shut them down.

Iowa 38
Illini 20

I think it will be a good game to start off with, but I think the hawks can wear down their defense by running the ball. CJB had a bad game last week, I think the rebounds this week.

I don't see this as a trap game, but I agree it could be close through the first quarter, maybe... A trap game means we're looking past to Northwestern. I just don't see that happening. The crowd will be insane this weekend.

 

[IACub]

he should have been able to do this as an in-game adjustment. He could not and that's sad. There are simple play calls to slow down defenses that are over aggressive. He just didn't use them.

That's my point. Ferentz will sit him down and say, "Look, Greg. Now here's what you'll need to do next week..." GDGD, how can any man make Ken O'Keefe look like such a genius?

 

[KOKhawk]

I'm sorry, but there is no way we lose this game, and it won't even be close. We beat them last year at Champaign, and we're a much better team this year. They just lost their starting running back, their coaching staff is in transition, Greg Davis should be able to figure out how to block ONE GUY after watching tape of Wisconsin, and their QB is at best above average. I just don't see them coming into our homecoming game when we're riding a 5-0 high and walking out with a win. This not even mentioning they haven't been in Kinnick since 2007, they're a border rival, and the crowd will be into the game (I'll be there to make sure).

Canzeri for 150 yards, Iowa wins 31-10.

I wouldn't be surprised if we won pretty easily. But if we play like we did at Wisc, expect a dog fight. That was anything but a clean game from us. A lot of mistakes! I love that we found a way to win, but we won't be able to afford to play like that in too many games.

 

[anon_snp6dc585nnj4]

Let's see I'm overlooking them because I am a fan! Not a player.

 

[IACub]

I wouldn't be surprised if we won pretty easily. But if we play like we did at Wisc, expect a dog fight. That was anything but a clean game from us. A lot of mistakes! I love that we found a way to win, but we won't be able to afford to play like that in too many games.

Agreed, but we made a lot of mistakes and ground out a win against a good team. Illinois is not a good team.

Plus the wind won't be such a huge factor, which will open it up downfield for Beathard.

 

[KOKhawk]

Agreed, but we made a lot of mistakes and ground out a win against a good team. Illinois is not a good team.

Plus the wind won't be such a huge factor, which will open it up downfield for Beathard.

Wind situation will be advantageous to Illinois as well. As they like to throw the ball A LOT. Probably even more with their #1 RB being out.

 

[td77]

What if this, from Blackheartgoldpants.com, is reality?

Iowa
Date Iowa Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Illinios State FCS W
9/12 Away Iowa State 63 W
9/19 Home Pittsburgh 38 W
9/26 Home North Texas 125 W
10/3 Away Wisconsin 33 W
10/10 Home Illinois 47 78%
10/17 Away Northwestern 37 56%
10/31 Home Maryland 92 88%
11/7 Away Indiana 96 79%
11/14 Home Minnesota 80 85%
11/21 Home Purdue 74 84%
11/27 Away Nebraska 49 64%

 

[IACub]

Wind situation will be advantageous to Illinois as well. As they like to throw the ball A LOT. Probably even more with their #1 RB being out.

Good.

 

[StormHawk42]

No kidding. Let them throw. King is on another level right now.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

That's my point. Ferentz will sit him down and say, "Look, Greg. Now here's what you'll need to do next week..." GDGD, how can any man make Ken O'Keefe look like such a genius?

God I hope so. But seriously how hard is it, in game, to say let's chip this guy, screen, or draw.

 

[KOKhawk]

Good.

Agreed that King is a special talent, but it's not that simple. We currently rank 64th in yards given up per game through the air. Lunt is also a better passer than Stave IMO.

 

[LincolnHawkeye]

Agreed that King is a special talent, but it's not that simple. We currently rank 64th in yards given up per game through the air. Lunt is also a better passer than Stave IMO.

It's misleading to post the yards given up per game, first of all, teams are throwing it a ton since we've been ahead in most of our games, secondly, our run defense is ridiculous this year, so of course they're going to be throwing it on us. If you look at Yards allowed per attempt, Iowa drops to 41st in the country, and if you factor in TD's and INT's, Iowa is 34th in Pass Efficiency Defense

 

[bagdropper]

Iowa ranks 64th in passing YPG cause teams can't run on them. Pittsburgh punted on a 4th an inches from inside the 40 for a damn good reason.

If Illinois can't run the ball, Iowa wins unless they commit 4+ TO's.

Plus, Illinois went on the road once, against a relative equal in North Carolina...and got crushed. What exactly has changed with them since? A win over a decidedly struggling Nebraska at home?

More worried about this being a classic letdown (not trap) game than anything else. I hate it when Iowa gets a week mid-season when suddenly everybody nationally tells them how good they are...always seems to be that the next game, they come out flatter than a sheet of paper.

30-14 like last year sounds about right to me...

 

[KOKhawk]

It's misleading to post the yards given up per game, first of all, teams are throwing it a ton since we've been ahead in most of our games, secondly, our run defense is ridiculous this year, so of course they're going to be throwing it on us. If you look at Yards allowed per attempt, Iowa drops to 41st in the country, and if you factor in TD's and INT's, Iowa is 34th in Pass Efficiency Defense

Good point... Our pass defense looked pretty shaky @ Iowa State in the first half. I'm just nervous that teams will pick up on what our weaknesses are.

 

[Hawks_Rock_12]

Trap game ! Very emotional game last weekend against Wisky could lead to our Hawks coming out flat. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

1-3: Illinois' defense is smoke and mirrors until they do it against someone other than the sisters of the poor and the worst Nebraska team in memory. Missing Tevaun hurts, but I think Jerminic will be better this week and help provide that threat. If I were GD, I'd send Parker on a couple fly routes as well to give them something to think about.

Inferior competition? Sure, the teams that they've played haven't been particularly stellar in terms of defensive play. However, North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, and Nebraska have all been statistically impressive on offense ... and yet the Illini have managed to win 2 out of 3 of those match-ups. Specifically, Nebraska is ranked #25 in total O, UNC is ranked #26 in total O, and MTSU is ranked #35 in total O.

While I believe that Iowa's D is legit, we really haven't played any teams that are stellar offensively. In fact, just look at how a balanced North Texas team was able to move the ball on us. Wes Lunt is A LOT better than McNulty ... and the rest of the Illini O is better too.

If the Illini can slow our O and possess the ball ... they are more than capable of making the game a really close one.

I agree with you though ... I do believe that Jerminic will be better this week. He'll have the full week to prep as the starter. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet that CJ and the receivers have been working a little extra together to improve timing.

If Iowa can get a good early start and put their foot on the Illini's proverbial neck ... then I do believe that Iowa is capable of making the game less stressful for fans. However, given the fluctuations in personnel on offense ... I'm not confident about their ability to get such a nice early start.

 

[bagdropper]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess. The ol' "we aren't sexy" would probably get pulled out of the closet.

 

[LincolnHawkeye]

Inferior competition? Sure, the teams that they've played haven't been particularly stellar in terms of defensive play. However, North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, and Nebraska have all been statistically impressive on offense ... and yet the Illini have managed to win 2 out of 3 of those match-ups. Specifically, Nebraska is ranked #25 in total O, UNC is ranked #26 in total O, and MTSU is ranked #35 in total O.

While I believe that Iowa's D is legit, we really haven't played any teams that are stellar offensively. In fact, just look at how a balanced North Texas team was able to move the ball on us. Wes Lunt is A LOT better than McNulty ... and the rest of the Illini O is better too.

If the Illini can slow our O and possess the ball ... they are more than capable of making the game a really close one.

I agree with you though ... I do believe that Jerminic will be better this week. He'll have the full week to prep as the starter. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet that CJ and the receivers have been working a little extra together to improve timing.

If Iowa can get a good early start and put their foot on the Illini's proverbial neck ... then I do believe that Iowa is capable of making the game less stressful for fans. However, given the fluctuations in personnel on offense ... I'm not confident about their ability to get such a nice early start.

Remember how windy it was in Madison on Saturday? Well it was just as windy with a little rain in Champaign as well. That may have effected Nebraska's offense and made Illinois defense look pretty good, the Huskers were having no trouble running it on them all day.

 

[KOKhawk]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess. The ol' "we aren't sexy" would probably get pulled out of the closet.

Um.. I would say this thread is split pretty even, and probably leaning towards Illinois being a non-threat. My comment was that I would not be surprised if we do blow them out. However, if we play like we did against Wisconsin, expect a dog fight.

 

[KryptonionHawk]

I believe that we played like we did against Wisconsin, because it was Wisconsin. Illinois is not Wisconsin. Illinois will not be able to go toe-to-toe with Iowa like Wisco did. However, that's just this guys opinion

 

[hawkssox1]

I don't see the Illini as much of a threat. Iowa's defense should be able to hold them to a low score and Iowa's offense will be much improved compared to last week. Illinois D isn't as good as Wiscy, CJ will play better and it won't be as windy this week.

Nostradamus is alive and well!!

 

[iahawkeyes17]

If you consider specific match-ups ... there is plenty to be concerned about.

1. The Illini has a VERY talented DE by the name of Smoot. Smoot already has an impressive 8 or 9 TFLs on the season. I believe he's going to be the one lined up against Croston. As confident as I am in Croston developing into a high-quality O-linemen for us ... this is still a mismatch in the Illini's favor.
2. The Illini actually have some good cover-corners. Given that Tevaun is out ... we don't have a guy who can blow the top off their coverage. That will allow them to expend more resources trying to slow/stop our running game.
3. The Illini have 40 or 41 TFLs on the season. Thus, they're very capable of forcing the Iowa O off schedule. If that happens, that will obviously make it harder for us to score ... and that could keep the score close. If that happens ... then it could be anybody's game.
4. The Illini do a REALLY good job of incorporating the running back into their passing game. That is still a relative weakness of our D. Wes Lunt is also arguably the most talented QB the D has faced to date - so he has the ability to connect with the RBs in those mismatches.
5. While Dez King is an obvious talent, our passing D is still a work-in-progress. While our D is good at slowing the running game - the Illini has the sort of passing game that can exploit us in coverage. They should be able to move the ball against us pretty well. Bill Cubit is a good offensive-minded coach.
6. Bill Cubit is the same coach that led Western Michigan into Kinnick against Iowa in 2007 - and exited a victor. His game-plan exploited our bend-but-not-break D to its fullest. He'll attempt to do the same thing this Saturday.

While I definitely believe that Iowa is the better team ... this game still has all the elements of a "trap game." In no way, shape, or form am I going to assume that this game is going to be a cake-walk.

At Kinnick vs a team that got blown out in one true road game at UNC then needed Middle Tenn St to miss a fg at the end of the game the following week to hold on for a win. Plus missing their top RB. Homecoming game for the hawks don't see a let down off the big W in Madison.

 

[bagdropper]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess.

Illinois...yes, Iowa can't mail it in. But to me, the most likely scenerio if both teams "show up" is Iowa by 11 to 18 points.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

-@home
-their d is not on par with Wisconsin or Pitt think we can run the ball
-think we have the best db's in the B1G as a unit. Throw at us bro
-most cohesive team in KF era one for all all for one

Last year's 2-10 ISU team didn't care that they were playing in Kinnick. This Iowa team is not good enough to overlook anyone and fans who think otherwise have very very short memories.

This is not last year's Illinois team. they are 4-1 and have a good win vs. Nebraska already. They won their first two games by combined score of 96-3. they always recruit better than Iowa. they have more talent that Iowa does.

Wes Lunt may be the best QB we face all year. some of us Iowa fans need a dollar to buy a clue. Illinois is a Big Ten school, not some MAC school that we have struggled with under this coach year in year out for half a decade. Iowa is .500 in big ten play the last 5 years. did everyone forget this? Iowa isn't some juggernaut.

Illinois will come into Kinnick looking to win. we are down some players and need some lineman and wide receivers to step up to the challenge. I hope they do.