I don't get how many Iowa fans are underestimating the Illini

[SDHawkDoc]

Should the Hawks beat illanoy? Absolutely.
Could it be a close game? Absolutely.

Iowa isn't a powerhouse offensive juggernaut.
Great to have CJ as their QB. Still, they aren't loaded with high powered skill position guys. While I don't think illanoy is a stellar D(witness the numbers unc put up on them), they aren't north texas either.

 

[bagdropper]

Any rational person can see that Iowa can't merely show up and win this game. But please forgive them if they think that maybe, possibly, they have a chance against a team whose only test on the road so far ended in a 48-14 thrashing.

The last time the Illinois program beat a team with an ending-year winning record was 2010 against Penn State (7-6). Time before that was 2007 (Indiana, 7-6).

No offense...but I like our chances.

 

[chitownUofI05]

Any rational person can see that Iowa can't merely show up and win this game. But please forgive them if they think that maybe, possibly, they have a chance against a team whose only test on the road so far ended in a 48-14 thrashing.

The last time the Illinois program beat a team with an ending-year winning record was 2010 against Penn State (7-6). Time before that was 2007 (Indiana, 7-6).

No offense...but I like our chances.

To be fair, we beat several teams with ending-year winning records in 2007.

No Illini fans (or very few) are "confident" we'll steal a win. We haven't won at Kinnick since a 31-0 win in 1999, I believe. It's not out of the question for Lunt to have a big game and us to hang in defensively, but there's a reason the line is where it is.

 

[icu81222]

If you consider specific match-ups ... there is plenty to be concerned about.

1. The Illini has a VERY talented DE by the name of Smoot. Smoot already has an impressive 8 or 9 TFLs on the season. I believe he's going to be the one lined up against Croston. As confident as I am in Croston developing into a high-quality O-linemen for us ... this is still a mismatch in the Illini's favor.
2. The Illini actually have some good cover-corners. Given that Tevaun is out ... we don't have a guy who can blow the top off their coverage. That will allow them to expend more resources trying to slow/stop our running game.
3. The Illini have 40 or 41 TFLs on the season. Thus, they're very capable of forcing the Iowa O off schedule. If that happens, that will obviously make it harder for us to score ... and that could keep the score close. If that happens ... then it could be anybody's game.
4. The Illini do a REALLY good job of incorporating the running back into their passing game. That is still a relative weakness of our D. Wes Lunt is also arguably the most talented QB the D has faced to date - so he has the ability to connect with the RBs in those mismatches.
5. While Dez King is an obvious talent, our passing D is still a work-in-progress. While our D is good at slowing the running game - the Illini has the sort of passing game that can exploit us in coverage. They should be able to move the ball against us pretty well. Bill Cubit is a good offensive-minded coach.
6. Bill Cubit is the same coach that led Western Michigan into Kinnick against Iowa in 2007 - and exited a victor. His game-plan exploited our bend-but-not-break D to its fullest. He'll attempt to do the same thing this Saturday.

While I definitely believe that Iowa is the better team ... this game still has all the elements of a "trap game." In no way, shape, or form am I going to assume that this game is going to be a cake-walk.

They had 0 points till late against a pretty suspect UN defense. I am not as worried about their O so much as our offensive game plan. Which I thought was GD'S worst effort of the year by far.

 

[J_Heater]

Any rational person can see that Iowa can't merely show up and win this game. But please forgive them if they think that maybe, possibly, they have a chance against a team whose only test on the road so far ended in a 48-14 thrashing.

The last time the Illinois program beat a team with an ending-year winning record was 2010 against Penn State (7-6). Time before that was 2007 (Indiana, 7-6).

No offense...but I like our chances.

No offense to you but as fans we need to be as focused as ever for this game. Lets all have a good week at work and be sure to stretch on Saturday morning so we don't pull a hammy.

 

[hawkit3113]

They had 0 points till late against a pretty suspect UN defense. I am not as worried about their O so much as our offensive game plan. Which I thought was GD'S worst effort of the year by far.

You going to the game? LMFAO

 

[Dauminator]

When I read the prediction thread, I see a lot more 7-14 point ranges than total blowouts. My prediction is Iowa by 6. I do see it being a close game, but you're playing them up like Big Ten title contenders.

 

[hawkit3113]

When I read the prediction thread, I see a lot more 7-14 point ranges than total blowouts. My prediction is Iowa by 6. I do see it being a close game, but you're playing them up like Big Ten title contenders.

Until they are proven to not be BIG 10 titles contenders, I would treat them as one.

 

[swihawk]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess. The ol' "we aren't sexy" would probably get pulled out of the closet.

Ohio State struggled against Indiana... needed a career day from Zeke Elliott to pull it out.

We could definitely sh1t the bed, if we keep turning the ball over like last Saturday, losing is very possible. If not for a penalty, we would have had four TO's.

The defense looks great. The hawks need to clean up the turnovers and red zone misfires on offense, we won't get breaks like stepping on Stave's foot every week and NU is right around the corner.

 

[KOKhawk]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess.

Illinois...yes, Iowa can't mail it in. But to me, the most likely scenerio if both teams "show up" is Iowa by 11 to 18 points.

You're using extremes. Where in this thread have people been pissing and moaning? There are some realistic thoughts on why it might be a tough game with Illinois. If we miss blocking assignments, turn the ball over, miss coverages and commit dumb penalties like we did against Wisconsin, it'll be anyone's game.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Remember how windy it was in Madison on Saturday? Well it was just as windy with a little rain in Champaign as well. That may have effected Nebraska's offense and made Illinois defense look pretty good, the Huskers were having no trouble running it on them all day.

I absolutely remember that. That's precisely how a pretty mediocre Hawk squad managed to defeat Michigan State AT East Lansing back in 2012.

This also part of the reason WHY a pretty mediocre Illini squad has a chance to upset the Hawks.

 

[leodisflowers]

They are bad, and you guys should blow them out. This won't be a game in my opinion. I'd say 42-14 you guys at minimum as long as there is no weather.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Ohio State struggled against Indiana... needed a career day from Zeke Elliott to pull it out.

We could definitely sh1t the bed, if we keep turning the ball over like last Saturday, losing is very possible. If not for a penalty, we would have had four TO's.

The defense looks great. The hawks need to clean up the turnovers and red zone misfires on offense, we won't get breaks like stepping on Stave's foot every week and NU is right around the corner.

I agree with Iowa media outlets in the assertion that Nate Meier actually FORCED the guard to step back on Stave's foot. What caused the fumble was that Stave made the amateur error of still trying to hand off the ball (he should have eaten the sack in order to live another down).

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

They are bad, and you guys should blow them out. This won't be a game in my opinion. I'd say 42-14 you guys at minimum as long as there is no weather.

LOL ... I could see that. I definitely hope that you're right.

Within my head, I know that Iowa "should" win the game ... perhaps even winning handily. However, I tend to make such cautionary posts because my fear that the players might slip in their focus and take their press-clippings too seriously.

As most long-time Hawk fans can attest ... one of the very reasons why the Hawks have historically lost to Iowa State is because ISU's film would look horrible. Consequently, the Hawks would seemingly walk on the field expecting to dominate the game .... and then ISU would come out swinging and completely take an overly-arrogant Hawk squad by surprise.

Good teams ... really good teams don't take their opposition lightly. They even prepare in excess in order to completely demolish them.

 

[swihawk]

I agree with Iowa media outlets in the assertion that Nate Meier actually FORCED the guard to step back on Stave's foot. What caused the fumble was that Stave made the amateur error of still trying to hand off the ball (he should have eaten the sack in order to live another down).

He probably pushed that guard backwards on dozens of plays. Stave's foot happened to be under it at the right time and place... near the goal line when they may have gone in for 7.

That is luck IMO, and I'm happy it happened. Luck counts. I hope it happens a few more times this season.

 

[leodisflowers]

LOL ... I could see that. I definitely hope that you're right.

Within my head, I know that Iowa "should" win the game ... perhaps even winning handily. However, I tend to make such cautionary posts because my fear that the players might slip in their focus and take their press-clippings too seriously.

As most long-time Hawk fans can attest ... one of the very reasons why the Hawks have historically lost to Iowa State is because ISU's film would look horrible. Consequently, the Hawks would seemingly walk on the field expecting to dominate the game .... and then ISU would come out swinging and completely take an overly-arrogant Hawk squad by surprise.

Good teams ... really good teams don't take their opposition lightly. They even prepare in excess in order to completely demolish them.

Yeah, anybody can slip up, but I don't see it happening. Pound the rock and run CJ a little bit, and it will be pretty easy. Lunt isn't great, and their D has no speed. Stretch plays with your RB will kill them. Good Luck, but you won't need it!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

They had 0 points till late against a pretty suspect UN defense. I am not as worried about their O so much as our offensive game plan. Which I thought was GD'S worst effort of the year by far.

I think that we would have just pounded the rock more if we had a healthy RB that we could trust to not fumble. Given the pressure applied by Wisconsin, it's pretty standard strategic move to use roll-outs in order to get out of the pocket. Iowa tried it a few times ... and it failed because Wisconsin remained disciplined.

The bigger problem with the O was in the second half ... and it wasn't really due to poor in-game coaching decisions. Iowa was caught either in bad field position or bad down-and-distance due to penalties. That allowed for Wisconsin to be able to make more defensive risks ... and they had the personnel and scheme to be successful executing their adjustments.

I sincerely believe that if Iowa enjoyed better field position in the second half, the O would have been able to move the ball better. That perhaps wouldn't have equated to many more points, but it would have allowed for the D to get more rest.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

He probably pushed that guard backwards on dozens of plays. Stave's foot happened to be under it at the right time and place... near the goal line when they may have gone in for 7.

That is luck IMO, and I'm happy it happened. Luck counts. I hope it happens a few more times this season.

Meier is only lined up that way (effectively as a nose-tackle) on short-distance situations. Furthermore, given the concern about the passing game - Iowa doesn't always add the extra d-linemen on the line. We tend to only do that on goal-line situations. How often do we do that AND face a team that uses their QB from under center?

Dozens of plays? He hasn't been under those aforementioned conditions that many times throughout his entire career!

I agree that you still have to have the QBs feet in the right position at the right time ... but I've seen it happen multiple times in goal-line situations before.

 

[7thsummitcoach]

It is hard for fans to underestimate anything. And there is no way of knowing before the fact.

Until they kick off there is nothing to say it is not a correct evaluation of Illinois.

What I do hear and sense is confidence. And that is something that has been sorely missing for many years.

Now the question is can people learn to live with success, or is it going to continue to be "poor Iowa" all season?

 

[swihawk]

Meier is only lined up that way (effectively as a nose-tackle) on short-distance situations. Furthermore, given the concern about the passing game - Iowa doesn't always add the extra d-linemen on the line. We tend to only do that on goal-line situations. How often do we do that AND face a team that uses their QB from under center?

Dozens of plays? He hasn't been under those aforementioned conditions that many times throughout his entire career!

I agree that you still have to have the QBs feet in the right position at the right time ... but I've seen it happen multiple times in goal-line situations before.

I hope it happens again soon.

 

[illini75]

Any rational person can see that Iowa can't merely show up and win this game. But please forgive them if they think that maybe, possibly, they have a chance against a team whose only test on the road so far ended in a 48-14 thrashing.

The last time the Illinois program beat a team with an ending-year winning record was 2010 against Penn State (7-6). Time before that was 2007 (Indiana, 7-6).

No offense...but I like our chances.

that's not right. Illinois beat Minny last year.

 

[dtrain79]

Any rational person can see that Iowa can't merely show up and win this game. But please forgive them if they think that maybe, possibly, they have a chance against a team whose only test on the road so far ended in a 48-14 thrashing.

The last time the Illinois program beat a team with an ending-year winning record was 2010 against Penn State (7-6). Time before that was 2007 (Indiana, 7-6).

No offense...but I like our chances.

Uh, Illinois beat Penn State the week after it played Iowa last year, and PSU won a bowl game so I'm thinking they finished above .500. Do you mean a conference road game?

 

[icu81222]

You going to the game? LMFAO

You are a cute little stalker. Still butt hurt about me pantsing you and beating your ass and embarrassing you in front of everyone?

You have no idea how many games i have or haven't been to or will be going to.

Like I said. Not everyone lives close to IC. Maybe I will meet you in Chicago next week and can introduce you to my fists... SP style.

I realize you:

1. Aren't very smart and can't mentally grasp simple things
2. Have zero life.

You are such a hero. Congrats

 

[DarkThunder#61]

This board really revels in over-prasing Iowa's opponents and underselling Iowa. This board had Iowa losing to Illinois State or Iowa State - or both. This board generally had Wisconsin beating Iowa (myself included), running roughshod over our defense. North Texas' work against our second and third teamers means Iowa's defense is weaker than we think.

Now Illinois...friggin' Illinois...is going to pose a serious threat to Iowa's record because of their fantastic QB, short passing game, et al...


Iowa could go 12-0 this year, and some people will still piss and moan about something I guess. The ol' "we aren't sexy" would probably get pulled out of the closet.

I'm gonna keep quoting this post until everyone reads it or copies it and posts a tl;dr (which means you f***ing read it and had nothing to say).........because all of this is true.

ghostOfHomer777 is unusually guarded about this week's game for some reason. I suppose when injuries mount up one tends to worry a bit more.

This game will be won or lost on two key factors:
- how Iowa's offense executes (i.e. doesn't shoot itself in the foot....)
- if our defense continues its progress and doesn't end up appearing lost, as has happened in the past, with pass-happy dink-and-dunk p.o.s. spread teams......there I said it.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

ghostOfHomer777 is unusually guarded about this week's game for some reason. I suppose when injuries mount up one tends to worry a bit more.

This game will be won or lost on two key factors:
- how Iowa's offense executes (i.e. doesn't shoot itself in the foot....)

Guilty as charged!

Like most fans ... I don't want this ride to end. I'd love to see Iowa NOT have it's typical hiccup against a perceived lesser foe.

The highlighted portion of your post is PRECISELY what I find to be key. If the offense executes ... then my confidence will soar proportionally.

 

[hersh236]

Ohio State struggled against Indiana... needed a career day from Zeke Elliott to pull it out.

We could definitely sh1t the bed, if we keep turning the ball over like last Saturday, losing is very possible. If not for a penalty, we would have had four TO's.

The defense looks great. The hawks need to clean up the turnovers and red zone misfires on offense, we won't get breaks like stepping on Stave's foot every week and NU is right around the corner.

Well, we had two turnovers on the day, so if they don't call the obvious penalty they get two turnovers on one play? Not sure how that works. I'll take a +2 TO margin every game.

 

[MITCH492]

Illinois is not that good. Iowa will roll them.

 

[downtown hawk redux]

Wind situation will be advantageous to Illinois as well. As they like to throw the ball A LOT. Probably even more with their #1 RB being out.

Not really following your logic. Wind never aids a passing team either with or against. A team that runs ball well has a huge advantage. The wind hurt both QBs last week in Madison.

Ask most QB's and they'll tell they'd prefer little to no wind.

Strange comment.

 

[Birky]

I absolutely remember that. That's precisely how a pretty mediocre Hawk squad managed to defeat Michigan State AT East Lansing back in 2012.

This also part of the reason WHY a pretty mediocre Illini squad has a chance to upset the Hawks.

Ghost, that doesn't make any sense. I believe the weather is supposed to be much better this weekend than what we saw in Madison last week.

The truth is that this game is about Iowa. If Iowa plays well, they will win. That said, Illinois is good enough to beat Iowa, if the Hawks don't play well. It really is that simple.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Ghost, that doesn't make any sense. I believe the weather is supposed to be much better this weekend than what we saw in Madison last week.

The truth is that this game is about Iowa. If Iowa plays well, they will win. That said, Illinois is good enough to beat Iowa, if the Hawks don't play well. It really is that simple.

LOL ... I was being a little overdramatic. But the premise is this, going off of what posters are saying, the wind COULD be an issue for the coming Saturday. If that turns out to be the case, the fact of the matter is that the wind can hamstring BOTH offenses. That could potentially force the game to be a lower scoring affair. Often when the score is low, the opposing team then is never truly out of it. That is how weather can level the playing field for the perceived "lesser" team.

I also concur with much of what Ferentz has said about Illinois as well. They're a better team than they were last year. They also happened to be a team that finished off Big 10 play on a bit of a streak.

The Illini right now honestly believe that they have a chance ... that belief is POWERFUL. The Hawks will have to enter the game as the aggressor and relieve the Illini squad of that delusion. If they don't ... then the Illini will make it game. That won't imply that they'll win ... but I'd rather watch the Hawks play at the level they're capable of playing.

 

[Suterman]

This is the B1G. Just look at last weeks results to see that Illinois can win this week...or any week. Pre season darling Minnesota lost by 27 to NU. Formerly elite Nebraska throws one away against the Illini. MSU squeaks by Purdue by 3. OSU struggled against IU. Wisky has 4 turnovers and loses at home to Iowa. Michigan sits at 4-1 w/ Iowa's 2nd string QB. If Iowa takes care of business, they will win this game. The fun of it, the drama, and the uncertainty is what makes B1G football fun.

 

[KOKhawk]

Not really following your logic. Wind never aids a passing team either with or against. A team that runs ball well has a huge advantage. The wind hurt both QBs last week in Madison.

Ask most QB's and they'll tell they'd prefer little to no wind.

Strange comment.

Don't think you read that right. Poster b4 me was saying wind will help Iowa offense. I said it will also help Illinois offense.

 

[bagdropper]

Uh, Illinois beat Penn State the week after it played Iowa last year, and PSU won a bowl game so I'm thinking they finished above .500. Do you mean a conference road game?

ROAD game...sorry, forgot to say that.

 

[Steve Waite]

I love the argument of our defense hasn't seen a QB like Lunt. Really?
You're right they see the best QB in CJ everyday.
Do you think Lunt has seen a defense like Iowa's?
I hope he is as dumb as Stave was last week.

If Iowa comes to play and doesn't turn the ball over, they will take Illinois to the woodshed.
I don't see CJ having two bad games in a row.
Iowa's defense is the real deal. Stats don't lie!
I'm looking forward to seeing some backups on Saturday.

 

[David1979]

He probably pushed that guard backwards on dozens of plays. Stave's foot happened to be under it at the right time and place... near the goal line when they may have gone in for 7.

That is luck IMO, and I'm happy it happened. Luck counts. I hope it happens a few more times this season.

It is not luck if you caused it to happen. Luck would be Stave just fumbling the handoff without any reason. Was it lucky that Wisconsin recovered Beathard's fumble because they were in the right place at the right time?

 

[rchawk]

If anything the Illini are overrated. Nebraska would have won that game 13-7 if Armstrong wasn't such a dumbass.

 

[hawkit3113]

You are a cute little stalker. Still butt hurt about me pantsing you and beating your ass and embarrassing you in front of everyone?

You have no idea how many games i have or haven't been to or will be going to.

Like I said. Not everyone lives close to IC. Maybe I will meet you in Chicago next week and can introduce you to my fists... SP style.

I realize you:

1. Aren't very smart and can't mentally grasp simple things
2. Have zero life.

You are such a hero. Congrats

Lol, sure dude. And you will find me down at the American Legion Hall, at LibertyHawks tailgate next weekend.

 

[hawkssox1]

Game on^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Game on^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I got 5 bucks on the internet tough guy / viking. takers?

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

It's misleading to post the yards given up per game, first of all, teams are throwing it a ton since we've been ahead in most of our games, secondly, our run defense is ridiculous this year, so of course they're going to be throwing it on us. If you look at Yards allowed per attempt, Iowa drops to 41st in the country, and if you factor in TD's and INT's, Iowa is 34th in Pass Efficiency Defense

Don't forget 3rd - We've been comfortably ahead in two games and teams have racked up some yards vs our 2nd and even 3rd string D.