I'll hold my judgement until we play some teams with a pulse.
There is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will play top 1/2 of the big ten defense.
Iowa defense ranked #128 per KenPom (as of Fri Jan 3). Was #61 on Dec 2. Overall team ranking: #54
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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There is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will play top 1/2 of the big ten defense.
Different team , some different skills but imo , rebounding is still going to be the key. Hawkeyes need to do better still at that.
Well, I’m holding judgment too, but to say there is no evidence is obtuse.
I mentioned this elsewhere but it's worth bringing up here as well. There are some statistical anomalies with the defense right now:
They are forcing turnovers on 23.3% of opponents' possessions (16th in the country).
Their opponents FT Rate (FTA/FGA) is only 0.202 (6th in the country).
They are allowing their opponents to shoot 26.9% from three point range (21st in the country).
Will the turnover forcing and three point defense continue against better competition? How long will Traore be out and how devastating will his injury be to our defense?
There are also some defensive categories where we've been terrible:
Our opponents are collecting offensive rebounds on 30.8% of their misses (219th in the country) and making 54.8% of their two point attempts (279th in the country).
Both of those numbers are very disturbing when one factors in the quality of opponents we have played. The two point defense is particularly weird because we are blocking 14.3% of our opponents' two point attempts (32nd nationally). Shot blocking and two point defense correlate with each other so we are currently a major outlier there. Is this a fluke? Can it be fixed? Personally, I think that when Freeman is around the basket, he's a very effective rim protector but there are too many plays where he is away from the basket - the other team sets a ball screen, Freeman hedges hard, the opposing guard gets past him (often splitting bt Freeman and the screener), and now Freeman is trailing the play and we don't have anything defensively at the rim. I'd like to see us try drop coverage with Freeman on ball screens instead of the hedging.
They are forcing turnovers on 23.3% of opponents' possessions (16th in the country).
Their opponents FT Rate (FTA/FGA) is only 0.202 (6th in the country).
They are allowing their opponents to shoot 26.9% from three point range (21st in the country).
Will the turnover forcing and three point defense continue against better competition? How long will Traore be out and how devastating will his injury be to our defense?
There are also some defensive categories where we've been terrible:
Our opponents are collecting offensive rebounds on 30.8% of their misses (219th in the country) and making 54.8% of their two point attempts (279th in the country).
Both of those numbers are very disturbing when one factors in the quality of opponents we have played. The two point defense is particularly weird because we are blocking 14.3% of our opponents' two point attempts (32nd nationally). Shot blocking and two point defense correlate with each other so we are currently a major outlier there. Is this a fluke? Can it be fixed? Personally, I think that when Freeman is around the basket, he's a very effective rim protector but there are too many plays where he is away from the basket - the other team sets a ball screen, Freeman hedges hard, the opposing guard gets past him (often splitting bt Freeman and the screener), and now Freeman is trailing the play and we don't have anything defensively at the rim. I'd like to see us try drop coverage with Freeman on ball screens instead of the hedging.
Dec 22 Update:
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #93
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #93
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
Think Traore being out is part of that?
No, I think Fran never putting a real emphasis on defense and rebounding for nearly 2 decades is ALL of that
Well I certainly think if he was playing more our defense would be better. But I don’t like where this whole thing looks to be heading after that weird press conference. We’ve seen guys get on the bad side of Fran and it’s tumultuous from there. We will need him moving forward in the league. We need athletic wings.
Don't disagree - tho they've usually held their own better than this year on the boards overall.
There has been an emphasis placed on the defense this year however - players talked about it during the offseason and frankly even our current rankings are loads better than they've been the past few years.
Despite protestations, Naysayers like to hear good defensive numbers for Fran, because it would be a change. , Unfortunately trend for now is opposite and being in 90's or worse ranked on defense is not a recipe for success. Going small with Payton Sandfort at the PF and two PGs is good for offense, not so good for rebounding/defense. Iowa is a solid, middle of the pack B1G team. Getting Traore back would help. Maybe they improve and make the NCAA tournament.
Idk…sometimes I wonder. You say ANYTHING good about Fran and some posters will immediately jump on you for it.
There are 364 teams, so top 100 on defense is top 26%. That seems pretty good to me. Of course, I love defense and rebounding, so I would love to see Iowa improve even more in both of those areas. By the eye test, the biggest problem with the defense seems to be inconsistency. Iowa will play 5 or 6 minutes of great defense, and then they'll start giving up backdoor cuts and baseline drives and other easy buckets for a while. Certainly the rotations account for some of this, but it seems to go beyond that. Bottom line for me: Thelwell, Harding, Dix, Dembele and others are working harder on defense, and it's paying off. And the players must realize that defense, being mostly effort, is the easiest and quickest way for the team to succeed.
And if Traore can come back healthy and Freeman can get after it on the glass like he did last night, the rebounding can vastly improve as well.
This team can continue to improve, and I think they will. The Hawkeyes could surprise people the rest of the way.
Iowa State seems to have a pulse, and Iowa's defense against the #3 team in the country was good enough to keep the Hawkeyes in the lead for 37 minutes. Iowa missed a 3 at the buzzer that would have beaten #24 Michigan, so the defense wasn't terrible in Ann Arbor. Could the defense improve? Yes, but again, Iowa is top 26% in the country, so improvement has been made. The real question is will Iowa continue to be aggressive and energized on defense, and more consistently, in the BIG? I think they will because I think they have enough players who understand that success depends on defense and, yes, rebounding. And not only do the players get that, but I think they have enough talent and enough energy to play the kind of defense they need to play to win.
I think it's a major factor. In the three games Traore has played against high major-ish competition, the defense has been about 0.05 points per possession better when he's been on the floor.
I think a lot of it will depend on what happens with Traore. If he can give us 20ish minutes per game at the 4, I think we've got a shot at a top-80 defense. Otherwise, I think we're gonna get gashed pretty bad, especially if we keep on having Freeman hedge out so far against ball screens.
Bad is relative here - even if we hang around the 100s that's still loads better than previous years.
The lack of focus on defense by Fran is somewhat exaggerated tho - the 1st half of his tenure, particularly with Olaseni and Woodbury on campus we had very good defenses, particularly compared to now.
One of those things I've always wanted a private, off the record conversation of how much that recent focus on offense has been deliberate, due to recruiting misses/guys not developing as expected, etc.
Fran is a smart enough and competitive enough coach that I have a hard time believing that if he truly desires postseason success, that he doesn't care about defense to the extent that it has appeared the past few years - its been extremely rare the last 20 years or so especially that the eventual nat'l champs aren't top 25 in both offense and defense.
Iowa is covered up by Florida.
The horizontal numbers are Steal Percentage.
Traore's return should only help this.
The horizontal numbers are Steal Percentage.
Traore's return should only help this.
Dec 27 Update:
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #91
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #91
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
to be fair - we actually moved up 2 spots defensively since you last posted.
thanks btw
Recent focus on offense?
Fran has only ever fielded a respectable defense the 4 years Woodbury and Gessel were on the team.
Frans most talented teams by far and away came after Woodbury and Gessel so it has nothing to do with recruiting misses.
The reality is Frans teams have never effectively defended ball screens sans the 4 years with Woody, and if you can't at least somewhat effectively defend ball screens the rest of it doesn't matter much.
I'd take A Whites senior year over that team but either way the overall talent level, at least offensively was higher latter with guys like Cook, Garza, Wieskamp, Murrays, Fredrick Perkins, Sandfort.
You can't make the recruiting miss argument. Fran choose to keep his worst defender, Jbo, around for 6 years when he had a lot better defenders like Toussaint, Perkins and Fredrick to choose from.
Fran will never sacrifice offense for defense.
I'm not bringing up the recruiting miss argument - JBO clearly played over Toussaint b/c the offense simply operated better when he was at the point - Toussaint was a good defender but he was inconsistent offensively. JBO didn't play over Perkins/Frederick; those guys played the 2 so I'm not sure what you meant there.
White's senior year team was pretty good, I'll give you that one.
btw - you want to talk about recruiting misses? look at those '14 and '15 recruiting classes...Ye Gods. Moss is about the only worthwhile player from those 2 recruiting classes.
2014:
2014 commitments
[edit]College recruiting information
| Name | Hometown | High school / college | Height | Weight | Commit date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Uhl PF | Point Pleasant, NJ | Point Pleasant Beach High School | 6 ft 7 in (2.01 m) | 185 lb (84 kg) | Oct 11, 2013 |
| Brady Ellingson SG | Menomonie, WI | Hamilton High School | 6 ft 3 in (1.91 m) | 170 lb (77 kg) | Sep 24, 2013 |
2015:
Hometown | High school / college | Height | Weight | Commit date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Moss SF | Chicago, IL | Simeon Career Academy | 6 ft 5 in (1.96 m) | 175 lb (79 kg) | Nov 2, 2014 |
| Brandon Hutton SF | Chicago, IL | De La Salle Institute | 6 ft 6 in (1.98 m) | 205 lb (93 kg) | Mar 9, 2014 |
| Ahmad Wagner PF | Huber Heights, OH | Wayne High School | 6 ft 7 in (2.01 m) | 215 lb (98 kg) | Aug 10, 2014 |
| Andrew Fleming SG | Nashville, TN | Oak Hill Academy | 6 ft 5 in (1.96 m) | 205 lb (93 kg) | May 12, 2014 |
| Christian Williams SG | Decatur, IL | Saint Teresa High School | 6 ft 6 in (1.98 m) | 180 lb (82 kg) | Mar 16, 2015 |
to be fair - we actually moved up 2 spots defensively since you last posted.
thanks btw
it will be interesting to see how things trend now that our next 18 games are all conference games
Hawkeyes are right about where I think most of us thought they’d be at this point. Could be they over preform or under preform. Meaning it is going to likely be a wild ride for most everyone in the B1G this year. Picking order of finish this year seems like mission impossible.
Could be worse. We're still ahead of Minnesota and Rutgers.
Update: they cannot.
We have given up 79, 85, and 116 in three B10 games.
That’s about as terrible of a start as you could possibly have
Woodbury and Olesani were good defenders but the key to those teams defensively were Gessel and Clemmons. Fran never has guards who can defend on the perimeter.
I would say the people that Love Fran are just as likely to jump on a poster with opposite view. They just wait for Fran to have a surprise win and then have a new thread rehashing how playing consistent 0.500 conference ball absent any NCAA tourney success is the golden age of Iowa basketball.
Here is a compliment Fran is good at coaching offense--consistently high assist to TO ratio, low Turnovers. Fran the person is good family man---puts his family 1st, job 2nd.
W/L wise, He has a very high basement as he has had very few rebuilding years. He relies mostly on in-state, legacy players that are quality young me. IF you value a consisent middle of the pack type teams, Fran is your guy.
The original post on this thread was about Iowa defense improving and being good enough to have Iowa make a run in NCAA tourney.
Clearly that is not the case, and those that were originally skeptical are at the moment looking correct.
For the record, Wisconsin game was an abomination, but easily flushed. A better coach who might be an A-hole would get more out of these guys on the season as a whole.
Iowa is a bad defensive team. But they will have games over the rest of the season that will be much better defensively than this.
Overreaction is a hallmark of forums like this. Of course that would happen after a historic beat down.
I still think Iowa is a below .500 team in the league. But they're not going to be at the bottom. They'll be lower, mid-pack. This one blowout didn't change that. Nor will it if they somehow have a 20+ point win in their next home game.
Overreaction is a hallmark of forums like this. Of course that would happen after a historic beat down.
I still think Iowa is a below .500 team in the league. But they're not going to be at the bottom. They'll be lower, mid-pack. This one blowout didn't change that. Nor will it if they somehow have a 20+ point win in their next home game.
Over reaction? This is more than just one bad game
to be fair - we actually moved up 2 spots defensively since you last posted.
thanks btw
Crazy how we went from 91 to 128
Can't believe how quickly the air went out of the bag Thursday - first 15 min were good, but for some reason unlike earlier games they showed no fight at all.
About the only consolation I have is that we've seen some truly odd scoring differentials in the b10 so far - Ohio State losing by 40....twice, Illinois blasting Oregon AT Oregon (also on a night when the Illini were hot from 3).
But yeah - that Wisconsin game undid alot of the guarded optimism there was about the defense.
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