Iowa offensive numbers 2024 predictions compared to 2023

[RagnarLothbrok]

Last year was supposed to be the year the Iowa offense finally broke out of its putrid state to become at least respectable and average. As it turned out, the Iowa punt team put out 1,000 more total yards than the Iowa offense did.

Pathetic.

Yeah, yeah, we all know and don’t need to beat this same dead horse. So, in the interest of stoking preseason hopes yet again, I’m going to throw out some 2023 numbers and ask for your 2024 predictions and why you threw out the numbers you did. Here it goes:

2023
Total yards: 3,284
Total passing yards: 1,661
Total rushing yards: 1,623
Average yards play: 3.9
Average yards game: 234.6
Total offensive touchdowns: 20
3rd down conversion: 29.4%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 33—173
Total points scored: 216
Average scoring: 15.43

My 2024 predictions:

Total yards: 4,150
Total passing yards: 2,150
Total rushing yards: 2,000
Average yards play: 4.4
Average yards game: 320
Total offensive touchdowns: 35
3rd down conversion: 35%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 20-120
Total points scored: 325
Average scoring: 25.0

Yeah, I think we hit the 25 points/game mark this year. Yeah, I think every statistical category will improve to about average. Call it the Lester effect.

If those numbers prove to be close to reality, what will Iowa’s win total be?

 

[pistachio1999]

9 - 3.

 

[mustang_hawk]

9 - 3.

93-0
Just for perspective.

 

[Birky]

Barring about 4 season ending injuries to the QB position, this seems reasonable.

 

[HawksRule73]

Last year was supposed to be the year the Iowa offense finally broke out of its putrid state to become at least respectable and average. As it turned out, the Iowa punt team put out 1,000 more total yards than the Iowa offense did.

Pathetic.

Yeah, yeah, we all know and don’t need to beat this same dead horse. So, in the interest of stoking preseason hopes yet again, I’m going to throw out some 2023 numbers and ask for your 2024 predictions and why you threw out the numbers you did. Here it goes:

2023
Total yards: 3,284
Total passing yards: 1,661
Total rushing yards: 1,623
Average yards play: 3.9
Average yards game: 234.6
Total offensive touchdowns: 20
3rd down conversion: 29.4%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 33—173
Total points scored: 216
Average scoring: 15.43

My 2024 predictions:

Total yards: 4,150
Total passing yards: 2,150
Total rushing yards: 2,000
Average yards play: 4.4
Average yards game: 320
Total offensive touchdowns: 35
3rd down conversion: 35%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 20-120
Total points scored: 325
Average scoring: 25.0

Yeah, I think we hit the 25 points/game mark this year. Yeah, I think every statistical category will improve to about average. Call it the Lester effect.

If those numbers prove to be close to reality, what will Iowa’s win total be?

I think (hope) we can get to about #75 in total offense in 2024. In 2023, #75 (Temple Owls) avg'd 372.9 ypg. For comparison purposes, Wisconsin was #70 at 381.2 ypg and Michigan was just in front of them at #69 (let the jokes ensue) at 382.7. I think we've got the players for the most part (OL will be the key here) to get to #75. With that being said, here's my prediction for offensive stats for 2024 (I'm basing it off a 12 game regular season schedule):

Total Yards - 4,475
Total Passing Yards - 2,268
Total Rushing Yards - 2,207
Yds Per Play - 5.33
Yds per Game - 372.9
Total Off TDs - 30
3rd Down % - 37%
Total Sacks - 21-110
Total Points - 315
Avg PPG - 26.3

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I think (hope) we can get to about #75 in total offense in 2024. In 2023, #75 (Temple Owls) avg'd 372.9 ypg. For comparison purposes, Wisconsin was #70 at 381.2 ypg and Michigan was just in front of them at #69 (let the jokes ensue) at 382.7. I think we've got the players for the most part (OL will be the key here) to get to #75. With that being said, here's my prediction for offensive stats for 2024 (I'm basing it off a 12 game regular season schedule):

Total Yards - 4,475
Total Passing Yards - 2,268
Total Rushing Yards - 2,207
Yds Per Play - 5.33
Yds per Game - 372.9
Total Off TDs - 30
3rd Down % - 37%
Total Sacks - 21-110
Total Points - 315
Avg PPG - 26.3

Sign me up for that!

 

[BrotherHawkeye]

The offense will be better (it can't get no worse). How much? How much rope will Kirk give to Tim?

If it ends up at No. 75 in total offense and 26 points a game?

 

[jonesy5960]

I think (hope) we can get to about #75 in total offense in 2024. In 2023, #75 (Temple Owls) avg'd 372.9 ypg. For comparison purposes, Wisconsin was #70 at 381.2 ypg and Michigan was just in front of them at #69 (let the jokes ensue) at 382.7. I think we've got the players for the most part (OL will be the key here) to get to #75. With that being said, here's my prediction for offensive stats for 2024 (I'm basing it off a 12 game regular season schedule):

Total Yards - 4,475
Total Passing Yards - 2,268
Total Rushing Yards - 2,207
Yds Per Play - 5.33
Yds per Game - 372.9
Total Off TDs - 30
3rd Down % - 37%
Total Sacks - 21-110
Total Points - 315
Avg PPG - 26.3

Michigan is a good example of how deceiving broad stats like total yardage can be. They were middle of the road in terms of yardage, but were the 5th most efficient offense and 14th in scoring average at 36ppg. They didn't turn it over and when they got the ball they got first downs and scored. They scored TD'S on over 70% of their red zone possessions. That offense was kick ass.

 

[pistachio1999]

Michigan is a good example of how deceiving broad stats like total yardage can be. They were middle of the road in terms of yardage, but were the 5th most efficient offense and 14th in scoring average at 36ppg. They didn't turn it over and when they got the ball they got first downs and scored. They scored TD'S on over 70% of their red zone possessions. That offense was kick ass.

Especially when a team lets them have the ball inside the 5 yard line 3 times in a game.

 

[HawksRule73]

Michigan is a good example of how deceiving broad stats like total yardage can be. They were middle of the road in terms of yardage, but were the 5th most efficient offense and 14th in scoring average at 36ppg. They didn't turn it over and when they got the ball they got first downs and scored. They scored TD'S on over 70% of their red zone possessions. That offense was kick ass.

They were the perfect example of complimentary football. I think if you gave KF truth serum, the 2023 Michigan team is what he has been trying to get to forever. A run-first, efficient offense that doesn't turn the ball over and scores TDs instead of field goals when the opportunity presents itself. Coupled with a suffocating defense that keeps everything in front of it and doesn't get beat by big plays. Michigan was #1 in the country in yards-per-play differential at almost 2.7 ypp difference.....#17 on offensive ypp and #2 in defensive ypp (we were #1....but #132 in offensive ypp). And then you throw in their fantastic special teams and you have the definition of a picture perfect example of complimentary football.

 

[jonesy5960]

They were the perfect example of complimentary football. I think if you gave KF truth serum, the 2023 Michigan team is what he has been trying to get to forever. A run-first, efficient offense that doesn't turn the ball over and scores TDs instead of field goals when the opportunity presents itself. Coupled with a suffocating defense that keeps everything in front of it and doesn't get beat by big plays. Michigan was #1 in the country in yards-per-play differential at almost 2.7 ypp difference.....#17 on offensive ypp and #2 in defensive ypp (we were #1....but #132 in offensive ypp). And then you throw in their fantastic special teams and you have the definition of a picture perfect example of complimentary football.

Yup. Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That's as good as it gets.

 

[uihawk82]

The offense will be better (it can't get no worse). How much? How much rope will Kirk give to Tim?

If it ends up at No. 75 in total offense and 26 points a game?

Well our ranking cant get worse but the production could get worse.

I think the offense jumps to #90-100 as I still do not think we will have the OLine production we need. But that will be somewhat overcome by a new offense scheming guys open and getting better running plays

 

[SDHawkDoc]

They will almost surely be better.
Can they crack 4000 yards? Not sure.
But, I would also say that I care more about their scoring than how many yards they can rack up. The michigan numbers are a good example of that.
How many times in the last few years have we seen the offense squander good defensive stops and prime field position?
Stating the obvious, scoring TDs is the first order of business for the offense. Taking advantage of short fields is the way this team has a chance to accomplish that. I think that's a more likely scenario than the offense putting together a lot more 80 yard drives over the course of the season.

 

[thunderstruck1]

I think we will be alright, with a chance to be pretty good. I really do not care about stats all that much, I look more at things like how many picks and fumble recoveries are we getting and how many yards per rush attempt are we getting, how many yards per pass attempt and how many yards after the catch. If those numbers look good, the rest will all sort itself out. Because for those numbers to be good, everyone is doing their job and playing as a team. So yeah we will be alright, with a chance to be pretty good.

 

[Hawk-A-Doodle-Doo]

Pain?

 

[jonesy5960]

Well our ranking cant get worse but the production could get worse.

I think the offense jumps to #90-100 as I still do not think we will have the OLine production we need. But that will be somewhat overcome by a new offense scheming guys open and getting better running plays

If the production gets worse fire everyone.

 

[BurgHawk87]

I think we will be alright, with a chance to be pretty good. I really do not care about stats all that much, I look more at things like how many picks and fumble recoveries are we getting and how many yards per rush attempt are we getting, how many yards per pass attempt and how many yards after the catch. If those numbers look good, the rest will all sort itself out. Because for those numbers to be good, everyone is doing their job and playing as a team.

Proceeds to list stats they care about.

 

[HawksRule73]

In all honesty, the only 2 stats that really matter are turnover differential (+1 is about a 70% win rate, +2 is about 82%, and +3 or more is about 95%) and red zone TD conversion % (both off and def). The other stats, while not exactly window dressing, don’t have the same win % determination as those 2 stats.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Last year was supposed to be the year the Iowa offense finally broke out of its putrid state to become at least respectable and average. As it turned out, the Iowa punt team put out 1,000 more total yards than the Iowa offense did.

Pathetic.

Yeah, yeah, we all know and don’t need to beat this same dead horse. So, in the interest of stoking preseason hopes yet again, I’m going to throw out some 2023 numbers and ask for your 2024 predictions and why you threw out the numbers you did. Here it goes:

2023
Total yards: 3,284
Total passing yards: 1,661
Total rushing yards: 1,623
Average yards play: 3.9
Average yards game: 234.6
Total offensive touchdowns: 20
3rd down conversion: 29.4%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 33—173
Total points scored: 216
Average scoring: 15.43

My 2024 predictions:

Total yards: 4,150
Total passing yards: 2,150
Total rushing yards: 2,000
Average yards play: 4.4
Average yards game: 320
Total offensive touchdowns: 35
3rd down conversion: 35%
Total sacks/lost yardage: 20-120
Total points scored: 325
Average scoring: 25.0

Yeah, I think we hit the 25 points/game mark this year. Yeah, I think every statistical category will improve to about average. Call it the Lester effect.

If those numbers prove to be close to reality, what will Iowa’s win total be?

I agree that Iowa will be improved in every single offensive category (then again, that's not saying much).

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I agree that Iowa will be improved in every single offensive category (then again, that's not saying much).

Right.

Not exactly a bold prediction.

That’s why I suggested posters throw out specific numbers.