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Is the recession starting? It very well may be.

HawktimusPrime

HawktimusPrime

HB Legend
Mar 23, 2015
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Currently the US stocks are at a 440 pt loss today.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which measures all major developed and emerging markets, fell into a bear market Wednesday, with its decline from early last year now totaling more than 20 percent.

A plunge in U.S. stocks, which caused the Dow Jones industrial average to decline by more than 400 points at one point, pushed the global index into bear territory mid-morning during New York trading.

Japan fell into a bear market as well as the Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.7 percent Wednesday, bringing its total pullback to 22 percent from its high in June.
 
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http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/urban-carmel/is-bear-market-recession-underway

Is the Bear Market going to come with a recession?

On Friday, for example, the equity-only put/call ratio reached 1.14x; among the few times this has happened in the past was September 15, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers went bust. These are panic conditions that swamp "oversold" readings and price support levels.

It's not just put/call ratios that are at extremes. A full listing would be redundant; here are four examples:

  • The percentage of AAII investors that are bullish is just 18%; it has only been lower once in the past 20 years (the April 2005 low in SPY).
  • An average of more than $6b has flowed out of equity funds in the past 5 weeks; since 2003, the only times outflows have been greater were in 2008 and at the market lows in March 2009 and late August 2011.
  • Only 20% of S&P companies are above their 200-ema; in the past 16 years, the only times it has been lower was during the 2002 and 2008 bear markets and at the market lows in August 2011 and 2015.
  • In the past 20 years, the daily MACD for SPY and NDX has only been lower once, during the late-2008 meltdown.
 
I'm no market savant but if all those markers last occurred on or about the time of the 2008 collapse, perhaps this is the time to be readying the readies to enter the market just as it was then. One difference between 2008 and now though are interest rate expectations...



HawktimusPrime said:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/urban-carmel/is-bear-market-recession-underway

Is the Bear Market going to come with a recession?

On Friday, for example, the equity-only put/call ratio reached 1.14x; among the few times this has happened in the past was September 15, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers went bust. These are panic conditions that swamp "oversold" readings and price support levels.

It's not just put/call ratios that are at extremes. A full listing would be redundant; here are four examples:

  • The percentage of AAII investors that are bullish is just 18%; it has only been lower once in the past 20 years (the April 2005 low in SPY).
  • An average of more than $6b has flowed out of equity funds in the past 5 weeks; since 2003, the only times outflows have been greater were in 2008 and at the market lows in March 2009 and late August 2011.
  • Only 20% of S&P companies are above their 200-ema; in the past 16 years, the only times it has been lower was during the 2002 and 2008 bear markets and at the market lows in August 2011 and 2015.
  • In the past 20 years, the daily MACD for SPY and NDX has only been lower once, during the late-2008 meltdown.
Click to expand...
 
desihawk said:
I'm no market savant but if all those markers last occurred on or about the time of the 2008 collapse, perhaps this is the time to be readying the readies to enter the market just as it was then. One difference between 2008 and now though are interest rate expectations...
Click to expand...
If you go by the Feds word they plan on raising the rates one level at a time for the foreseeable year. So that is a factor to look forward to.
 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/20/total-fail-6-dow-stocks-worst/79061302/

Get ready boys and girls, this ride is getting bumpy and everyone in the world is now starting to take notice and the fear is setting in!!!

Stocks are plunging again. It's the worst start to a year for the Dow ever. Here are the stocks you can blame.

There are six stocks, including chemical firm du Pont de Nemours (DD), networking equipment company Cisco Systems (CSCO) and bank JP Morgan Chase (JPM), that are down a crushing 15% or more this year so far. This makes these the worst performing stocks so far this year in the Dow.

Standing out amid a bad year is an impressive feat. The Dow is down more than 10.6% this year already - which has wiped out $380 billion in value in among just these 30 stocks, says Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Dow is down more than 450 points to 15,558 Wednesday.
 
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/18/global-recession-fears-mount-amid-market-turbulence.html

Investors trying to cope with one of the worst starts to a year on record are beginning to weigh up the possibility of global recession, as oil prices hit 12-year lows and Chinese growth fears leave markets with little room for optimism.

With China set to release its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for December and 2015 as a whole on Tuesday, some analysts believe the recent rout in equities may worsen, with some bracing for the slowest pace of expansion since 1990.
 
dgordo said:
Recessions are measured by gdp growth not the stock market.
Click to expand...

It is still an indicator of how the economy might be doing. Gas prices as well. When gas goes down that means the demand is down and some of that has to do with the economy as well.
 
Hawktimus, I think you're focusing WAY too much on the stock market here. Oil is dropping... there's a reason for that. Let it drop. A lot of people are going to buy-up oil shares very low and then make a ton of money when it rises again. Because, I have no doubt at all that oil, of all commodities, will again go back up. When you have a sudden abundance of a commodity available, then the price of it usually goes down. If someone found a vein of Gold somewhere that was quadruple the amount of Gold we already have now, do you think Gold prices would rise on the market?
 
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rocketclone said:
It is still an indicator of how the economy might be doing. Gas prices as well. When gas goes down that means the demand is down and some of that has to do with the economy as well.
Click to expand...

To some extent.
And some of that has to do with oil speculators
And Iran oil likely coming online
And the decline in Brazil
And the bubble in China ....

Q3 US GDP was 2.1%. I'll take that in the new economy.
 
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St. Louis Hawk said:
To some extent.
And some of that has to do with oil speculators
And Iran oil likely coming online
And the decline in Brazil
And the bubble in China ....

Q3 US GDP was 2.1%. I'll take that in the new economy.
Click to expand...
From what I have read Iran oil is a definite deal. It's what caused Saudi Arabias market to crash a few days ago.
 
IACub said:
Great quote I'll repeat, "The stock market has accurately predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions."
Click to expand...
Actually it's been 50/50. 4 of the last 8 had similar stock market conditions before they went officially into recession. Large market 'corrections' as they call this, though it's officially bear market status, are a good sign that a recession is on the way.

Pay special close to the bond market and the yield curve in the days and weeks to come.
 
HawktimusPrime said:
Actually it's been 50/50. 4 of the last 8 had similar stock market conditions before they went officially into recession. Large market 'corrections' as they call this, though it's officially bear market status, are a good sign that a recession is on the way.

Pay special close to the bond market and the yield curve in the days and weeks to come.
Click to expand...


You seem very emotionally committed to the notion of economic collapse -- we hear from you whenever the stock market goes down. Your confusion between the stock market vs recession suggests a flimsy grasp of economics, so I'm curious why it is so important to you that our economy does poorly. Any explanation you can provide?
 
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HawktimusPrime said:
Actually it's been 50/50. 4 of the last 8 had similar stock market conditions before they went officially into recession. Large market 'corrections' as they call this, though it's officially bear market status, are a good sign that a recession is on the way.

Pay special close to the bond market and the yield curve in the days and weeks to come.
Click to expand...

I do secondary market lending, so I watch bond yields every day. 1.98 right now looks good for a little refi boom :)
 
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/markets-are-whistling-past-a-graveyard-peter-schiff.html

The underlined is what has me concerned at this point. That's a #$# load of money to be lost in just the first half of the first month of the year.

To say that 2016 — all two weeks of it — has been tough would be a vast understatement. Global markets have seen more than $3 trillion in losses this year as a heap of selling has pushed stocks around the world either into correction or an outright bear market, according to data pulled by Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices. However, as many on Wall Street point the finger at the collapse in oil prices and continued turmoil in the Chinese stock market, one market pundit says there's no one to blame but the Federal Reserve.
 
IACub said:
I do secondary market lending, so I watch bond yields every day. 1.98 right now looks good for a little refi boom :)
Click to expand...
Let's hope you're correct, but Chinas problems are very much for real. They are going to pull down the rest of us with them. The only question is how far.
 
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artradley said:
You seem very emotionally committed to the notion of economic collapse -- we hear from you whenever the stock market goes down. Your confusion between the stock market vs recession suggests a flimsy grasp of economics, so I'm curious why it is so important to you that our economy does poorly. Any explanation you can provide?
Click to expand...

You seem to not understand the importance of a collapse happening on top of a false recovery of another major collapse. There is no confusion with the stock market and the recession. If stock markets fail and trillions are lost, which they have been, then what you are seeing is the start of a coming recession.
Only a fool would suggest that there isn't a serious danger of one to come. Investors certainly seem worried, as do most analysts in the global market at this point. That is undeniable.

Do I find joy in all of this? No, I find confusion in all of this as to why there are so many deniers of this.
 
HawktimusPrime said:
You seem to not understand the importance of a collapse happening on top of a false recovery of another major collapse. There is no confusion with the stock market and the recession. If stock markets fail and trillions are lost, which they have been, then what you are seeing is the start of a coming recession.
Only a fool would suggest that there isn't a serious danger of one to come. Investors certainly seem worried, as do most analysts in the global market at this point. That is undeniable.

Do I find joy in all of this? No, I find confusion in all of this as to why there are so many deniers of this.
Click to expand...
Why are you confused? I mean, the reasons for this occurring were totally foreseen. The FED raised the rates, the Chinese economy is apparently faltering, there is a mass influx of new oil and manipulation from oil-rich countries. Why is this such a shock?
 
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Unless of course Gas supply is also up, in which case prices go down.

What's curious is that traditionally when oil rallied it was a negative for stocks. For the last 6 months or so the opposite has occurred and oil and stocks are strongly correlated. In the end, I'm going to guess that cheap oil is a a boom to the broader economy. A tax cut as it were for the middle class.
 
Last edited:
strummingram said:
Why are you confused? I mean, the reasons for this occurring were totally foreseen. The FED raised the rates, the Chinese economy is apparently faltering, there is a mass influx of new oil and manipulation from oil-rich countries. Why is this such a shock?
Click to expand...
Confused of the deniers. I don't know if you guys have been paying attention like I have, but there are now serious talks about a recession building it's momentum straight into the global economy. What exactly are you asking me here?
 
strummingram said:
Hawktimus, I think you're focusing WAY too much on the stock market here. Oil is dropping... there's a reason for that. Let it drop. A lot of people are going to buy-up oil shares very low and then make a ton of money when it rises again. Because, I have no doubt at all that oil, of all commodities, will again go back up. When you have a sudden abundance of a commodity available, then the price of it usually goes down. If someone found a vein of Gold somewhere that was quadruple the amount of Gold we already have now, do you think Gold prices would rise on the market?
Click to expand...
The oil markets aren't lowering anytime soon due in part to Irans move back into the market. At least that is what the experts are saying at this point.

Despite that, Chinas economy is tanking, BIG TIME. That loss of $Trillions in just these couple of weeks should tell everyone that something is not right.
 
HawktimusPrime said:
The oil markets aren't lowering anytime soon due in part to Irans move back into the market. At least that is what the experts are saying at this point.

Despite that, Chinas economy is tanking, BIG TIME. That loss of $Trillions in just these couple of weeks should tell everyone that something is not right.
Click to expand...
Look at the bright side; The FED is here to save us. I'm sure they will steer us to safe shores.
 
HawktimusPrime said:
Currently the US stocks are at a 440 pt loss today.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which measures all major developed and emerging markets, fell into a bear market Wednesday, with its decline from early last year now totaling more than 20 percent.

A plunge in U.S. stocks, which caused the Dow Jones industrial average to decline by more than 400 points at one point, pushed the global index into bear territory mid-morning during New York trading.

Japan fell into a bear market as well as the Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.7 percent Wednesday, bringing its total pullback to 22 percent from its high in June.
Click to expand...
Your cheering on of falling stocks doesn't have anything to do with our bet, now does it? Enjoy your last 11 months posting here. Because you won't be back until 2018.
 
Huey Grey said:
Your cheering on of falling stocks doesn't have anything to do with our bet, now does it? Enjoy your last 11 months posting here. Because you won't be back until 2018.
Click to expand...
No, I could care less about the bet, especially since I'm going to win it. Besides you didn't add the football board into the equation, so I'm good if I lose.
 
artradley said:
You seem very emotionally committed to the notion of economic collapse -- we hear from you whenever the stock market goes down. Your confusion between the stock market vs recession suggests a flimsy grasp of economics, so I'm curious why it is so important to you that our economy does poorly. Any explanation you can provide?
Click to expand...
HawkPrime needs stocks to tank below 10,000 by years end. If they don't, he loses our bet and can't post for a full year. There's your reason.
 
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