You serious? Market would have to lose almost half its value. That would require a recession the size of the last one. This just isn't likely to happen, not because of oil at least.
Is the recession starting? It very well may be.
- Thread starter HawktimusPrime
- Start date
Agreeing with OiT does not strengthen your case.
The stocks are having a very hard hit to start the year, but other key economic measurements (such as the real estate market and unemployment rate) are doing very well. I haven't seen many indicators (other than stocks) that point to a recession but I could be wrong. While the economy is certainly not booming, it is still slowly growing.
If we had truly recovered the Fed raising the rates a measly .25% wouldn't have caused this much chaos.
If we had truly recovered we would already be at a raised interest far above a measly .25%. We would have also been at that for a least a couple of years now.
THAT would be a true recovery.
You are attributing the movement in the market to a change in the interest rate. Since that change happened well before the markets recent drop I have a hard time seeing the causality.
But it does now. Markets don't react to any meaningful analysis or projections. It's day traders reacting to the news of the day. The markets dipped on speculation of the Fed maybe talking about someday raising rates a year ago.
News of the day, also knowns as news of the year, also known as news from the last half of last year.
What do you think would have happened if they had raised it a full percent?
What do you think would happen if the morons traded based on WHY they were raising interest rates, rather than panic when they knew it was coming?
But they are all right. We're still feeling the effects from when the economy crashed during the latter part of the Bush administration. All that spending has only made it last longer, just like it did during the Great Depression.
The personal losses some of my co-workers are talking about today certainly doesn't make me a big fan of it myself.
And, after the ABUNDANCE of information made available in the wake of the 2008 Crisis, about how jacked-up, crooked and corrupt the whole system really is... I cannot imagine why anyone else would. Well, except for the crooked, criminal people who profit from it no matter what!
Here is a good chart for you to look at. Global trade is slowing to a halt. Reports of factories being shuttered in China as long time migrant workers are sent home. Shale and fracking operations that are heavily financed are getting crushed by oil price drops. Banks are cutting mark to market values and assets being auctioned off can't find a buyer at any price. The United States might look good today but this is the start of a global depression. Central Banks have attempted to flood the world with currency but can't stop it. They already used the bazooka of 0% interest rates causing massive malinvestment and now they are out of ammo.
My concern is the Feds do not have as many tools available to them to juice the economy in an attempt to get it moving again. The slowdown started in July, you could feel it in my business. The Automotive and Aerospace were the only things pulling the economy along. The automotive cycle has been short circuited and dealers have had three straight miserable months of sales. Keep an eye on Boeing's back orders, that will tell you when the last engine pulling the economy dies. My guess is that the Middle Eastern Airlines will be the first to pull orders out of the system.
Right. So this has nothing to do with China building cities for millions of people that no one is living in and nobody over there is making any money back on their investment.
Can we at least acknowledge that there are several factors driving this, most of which are happening on foreign soil?
These prices are due to a supply glut. That said, the Oil producers are expecting less overall demand for their product in 2016.
I was just watching a crappy local news anchor give commentary that the drop in the market is because of the drop in oil prices in such a matter of fact fashion. He then said the people pocketing the average $60 a month savings was slowing consumer spending. It was laughable but Joe Six-Pack watching the news for their information probably thinks it is this simple. That was followed with a report that UI will give a basic financial class to explain to students what a student loan means and the requirements to pay it off.
Some segments of the real estate market are off quite a bit from just a year or two ago, chiefly ag land. Granted, ag land values had been accelerating at a very rapid rate in the previous 5-8 years, but they are definitely trending down at this time. The unemployment rate...IMO, it's hard to even take the national unemployment rate seriously as a measurement of anything meaningful these days. For starters, the # of people that are not counted in the measure because they have completely dropped out of the labor force is at a record level.
As far as whether or not the economy is tilting towards recession IMO...(anecdote alert)...from what I am seeing in my business, it sure looks and feels like this is possibly looming. A couple of key indicators to me are: 1. Days in AR. 2. Plans to purchase and/or inventory levels.
My days in AR began climbing noticeably about 3-5 months ago...something that cuts across many different businesses and sectors. The last time I saw this...late 2008, early 2009...or the start of a pretty rough time in the local economy. Several other business owners that I know have reported very similar observations.
From what our managers and salespeople are hearing from customers over the past 3-6 months, there is a fair amount of trepidation and concern about where things are heading and many firms have deferred capital purchases that were planned in 2015. Caveat - it is true that a good number of these firms are in the ag related sector, and they are definitely off in the past 18 months from where they were running for the previous several years.
Nailed it. ^^ The local news anchors, er, script readers, couldn't slap their way out of a wet paper sack when it comes to understanding or explaining anything of any depth. The same fools will someday read what is handed to them and say something to the effect, "The increasing oil prices are leading to a drop in the market, etc" and no one will be the wiser.
Most of what is driving the us markets lower is forced selling by sovereign wealth funds taking it in the ass from lower oil prices. They have cash needs do they sell what they can. It's turning out to be a never ending downward spiral for them because the more they sell the more they need to sell.
On the contrary, what a time to build something.
http://www.pragcap.com/what-a-time-to-build-something/
And I'm not sure what a fake recovery is.
http://www.pragcap.com/what-a-time-to-build-something/
And I'm not sure what a fake recovery is.
I hate to say this, because I don't want a slowdown...and I'm afraid the next one will be a depression. BUT the reality is the entire world economy is in the shitter. Nothing is strong. No where on earth is killing it financially right now.
We used to talk about Greece and Spain. Does anyone think those 2 economies are doing any better today? Of course not...we're just inundated by bigger news stories. Refugees, our own POTUS election, Iran, ISIS, local news...and of course the 20,000 things we all distract ourselves with daily.
If you watched the Big Short, you realize what I came to terms with years ago after being a licensed stockbroker...most financial people are NOT financially smart or they simply view this is as a game...not real wealth. We've undermined the value of money...or what money really stands for. It's not a $...it's your time working...converted into something easier to barter. To WS it's a big game...and we've all joined them betting on stocks like ponies...not as investments into a business. Companies have responded making foolish short term moves that have disastrous long term effects to drive stock prices up for quick options payouts.
It's an MCF. And I don't expect it to get better because China is in deep shit and whatever Greece and Spain were China is 1000 times bigger and worse.
We used to talk about Greece and Spain. Does anyone think those 2 economies are doing any better today? Of course not...we're just inundated by bigger news stories. Refugees, our own POTUS election, Iran, ISIS, local news...and of course the 20,000 things we all distract ourselves with daily.
If you watched the Big Short, you realize what I came to terms with years ago after being a licensed stockbroker...most financial people are NOT financially smart or they simply view this is as a game...not real wealth. We've undermined the value of money...or what money really stands for. It's not a $...it's your time working...converted into something easier to barter. To WS it's a big game...and we've all joined them betting on stocks like ponies...not as investments into a business. Companies have responded making foolish short term moves that have disastrous long term effects to drive stock prices up for quick options payouts.
It's an MCF. And I don't expect it to get better because China is in deep shit and whatever Greece and Spain were China is 1000 times bigger and worse.
This is very interesting insight. I will say that I agree on parts of it. I think we are in a slow down if you will. I am just not convinced that we are headed towards a 2008-esque recession. The Ag industry's slowdown could be seen coming miles away. It was all booming for almost a decade. It was bound to slow at some point. I know both of the real estate markets(upper midwest) in which I follow had great years.
So, I think the right question to ask is this: Is this a "natural" slowdown after a boom as is common in a business cycle (think early 00's) OR are we headed towards another recession (2008 style)?
On a rational side, I know the market is safe, at least long term. But I have to agree with you. The place is chock full of people who pump part of their paycheck each week into it blindly, or people who are all about trying to exploit the rules. Those two combined don't give me much comfort.
Does being scared give you a boner or something? Are you one of those "peepers" too? Just buy all silver and watch it sit safe and stagnant for 40 years. It fits your type.
You have to know fear to be afraid. I feel nothing, fear, happiness, etc. I am exquisitely empty.
Well, the DJI is up 250 points today.
I don't like to gauge too much by how the stock market responds. Besides that, if you sit around thinking everything is going to be cataclysmic, then, for you, things are cataclysmic. You draw the conditions to yourself, if only psychologically. That much I know to be true.
I don't like to gauge too much by how the stock market responds. Besides that, if you sit around thinking everything is going to be cataclysmic, then, for you, things are cataclysmic. You draw the conditions to yourself, if only psychologically. That much I know to be true.
Perhaps you mean that oil markets aren't recovering anytime soon?
I would agree, as Iran's cost to produce is around the same level as the Saudis (relatively low).
Yes, but what I'm hearing is that this isn't expected to last at all. Plus, my friend Ned laughed at the news today because of all the positive talk. He basically said that this is one of only two times this has happened this year, and the days not even over, yet everyone is suddenly preaching relief?
Europe got smacked down and so did asia today. I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel today.
What exactly isn't expected to last? People speculating on earthly commodities and and guessing it right or wrong based on countless factors? I expect that to last a very long time.
