Is the recession starting? It very well may be.

[dandh]

Yeah no kidding and early q4 numbers show positive growth. So unless q1 is negative we aren't already in a recession.

There's still time for revisions to q4 numbers, but yes, we likely haven't entered one yet. Growth has never been robust during this "recovery", so maybe we can continue to putt along for a while longer. Still, it will happen within the next year or two, imo.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Dude, I'm just saying that I would be hard pressed to believe the people who caused the crash. The banks so royally screwed the people, and they did it intentionally.

And they were able to do it why? The market they were playing was Dodge City with no Marshall Dillon. A libertarian wet dream, I would think. These guys were dreaming up ways to "screw the people" and they knew no one was watching them.

Now you can make the case that the govt was in bed with them in terms of dropping regs, not enforcing regs, and ignoring players who SHOULD have been regulated...and you will certainly have an ally. But you can't call for less regulation on the one hand and then pretend it wasn't EXACTLY that that led to the market collapse.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

There's still time for revisions to q4 numbers, but yes, we likely haven't entered one yet. Growth has never been robust during this "recovery", so maybe we can continue to putt along for a while longer. Still, it will happen within the next year or two, imo.

It's the fact that the drops have been so sharp and have been happening one right after the other. It's been practically nothing but drops this year, and big ones too. What you would generally like to see at this point, is small, but steady gains, day in and day out. This swing we are seeing, isn't telling us anything yet. It's more of a quick swing up, which means it will likely do a quick swing back down soon.

Steady as it goes, is better. Very few on Wall Street are optimistic, despite what is happening today. I agree with your assessment.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

And they were able to do it why? The market they were playing was Dodge City with no Marshall Dillon. A libertarian wet dream, I would think. These guys were dreaming up ways to "screw the people" and they knew no one was watching them.

Now you can make the case that the govt was in bed with them in terms of dropping regs, not enforcing regs, and ignoring players who SHOULD have been regulated...and you will certainly have an ally. But you can't call for less regulation on the one hand and then pretend it wasn't EXACTLY that that led to the market collapse.

The government has been in bed with the Fed since it's inception. Despite what the Fed decides to do. The one thing that should be regulated the most is the Fed. It's entirely too powerful of an entity, with way to much ability to make major moves at a whim.

 

[unIowa]

Agreeing with OiT does not strengthen your case.

Does reinflating a bubble count as a recovery?

 

[IACub]

Does reinflating a bubble count as a recovery?

Dude, I'm a mortgage lender. You're asking the wrong guy

 

[unIowa]

Dude, I'm a mortgage lender. You're asking the wrong guy

I used to run a mortgage department for a entire FI and now I work with banks on B/S management, risk mitigation and profitability management.

We reinflated and now are in a position where financial assets are even more concentrated. I love banking, it is how I get paid, but too big to fail needs to go away via the breakup of our nations largest FIs. Even doing that probably doesn't go far enough.

 

[dgordo]

You told me your version of it. Your word isn't fact though, despite having some factors correct. The whole picture is what needs to be looked at. China, overvalued market, Fed interest hike games, Iran/Oil, tensions between countries, slow growth, etc are all factors.

First off, markets by definition cant be overvalued.

Second, we know who started the selling and can only assume why since they havent said so.

The market drop began when some sovereign wealth funds placed huge sell orders. Given the location of these funds it was likely done to over come lack of income from oil sales. As the market started to drop other large sellers needed to get out and they sold what they could sell quickly. Oil traders saw this behavior and knew that the sellers were in countries that depend on oils sales and speculated the price of oil lower, causing the sovereign funds to need to sell more stock to meet liquidity needs. And so it continues. This isnt complicated and the brokers and traders like to talk.

 

[IACub]

I used to run a mortgage department for a entire FI and now I work with banks on B/S management, risk mitigation and profitability management.

We reinflated and now are in a position where financial assets are even more concentrated. I love banking, it is how I get paid, but too big to fail needs to go away via the breakup of our nations largest FIs. Even doing that probably doesn't go far enough.

Amen.

 

[dandh]

Based upon what metric?

Most value guys are telling me that if you take out the FANG names the market is trading at a pe below the 20 year average going into this year.

Not true for good companies. Coke is at 26, pepsi at 28, kimberly clark at 83, even chevron at 17 (forward is 23).

 

[HawktimusPrime]

First off, markets by definition cant be overvalued.

Second, we know who started the selling and can only assume why since they havent said so.

The market drop began when some sovereign wealth funds placed huge sell orders. Given the location of these funds it was likely done to over come lack of income from oil sales. As the market started to drop other large sellers needed to get out and they sold what they could sell quickly. Oil traders saw this behavior and knew that the sellers were in countries that depend on oils sales and speculated the price of oil lower, causing the sovereign funds to need to sell more stock to meet liquidity needs. And so it continues. This isnt complicated and the brokers and traders like to talk.

First off, yes they can. That's a Wall Street BS myth, that continues to sucker in investors.

Second, everything you said is mostly correct, but that doesn't change anything that I've said. It' simply just you repeating what I've already said. You also forgot the uncertainty of Chinas actual economic value and numbers, and also the role the rate hikes have played.

Try again, try harder.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Amen.

An amen that this 2008 crisis only helped to do the opposite of. Too big to fail, only became bigger.

 

[dgordo]

First off, yes they can. That's a Wall Street BS myth, that continues to sucker in investors.

Second, everything you said is mostly correct, but that doesn't change anything that I've said. It' simply just you repeating what I've already said. You also forgot the uncertainty of Chinas actual economic value and numbers, and also the role the rate hikes have played.

Try again, try harder.

Other than maybe the individual investor that has no effect on the market, no one is selling because they want to, they are selling because the have to sell. China is totally irrelevant to us markets, us listed companies get less than 5% of their sales from china.

Stop listening to Peter Schiff, his funds are now down double the market this year.

 

[NoleSoup4U]

And they were able to do it why? The market they were playing was Dodge City with no Marshall Dillon. A libertarian wet dream, I would think. These guys were dreaming up ways to "screw the people" and they knew no one was watching them.

Now you can make the case that the govt was in bed with them in terms of dropping regs, not enforcing regs, and ignoring players who SHOULD have been regulated...and you will certainly have an ally. But you can't call for less regulation on the one hand and then pretend it wasn't EXACTLY that that led to the market collapse.

Buddy, a libertarians wet dream does not include teaming up with the government, and it definitely does not end with nobody going to jail over all this.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Things to take notice of.


-Obviously pay attention to both the Asian and European markets as well.

-Oil prices, obviously. Pay particular close attention to Iran and how Saudi Arabia reacts accordingly.

-The Feds moves and whether they continue their interest rate hikes upward.

-China using its Central Banks in direct intervention within their market. A BAD sign and they've injected Billions already this week.

-Chinas gigantic credit bubble, with no answer so far on what to do with it.

-Also pay attention to the silence in the White house. They're staying quiet due to being afraid of stirring more turmoil.

-Record losses, and the worst start on record. 2008 started very similarly.

-Europe is currently flirting with deflation

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Other than maybe the individual investor that has no effect on the market, no one is selling because they want to, they are selling because the have to sell. China is totally irrelevant to us markets, us listed companies get less than 5% of their sales from china.

Stop listening to Peter Schiff, his funds are now down double the market this year.

The bolded is incorrect, when simply saying under 5%, what you're really talking about is BILLIONS in dollars. Schiff, is much more intelligent than you, I'll continue to listen to him.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Buddy, a libertarians wet dream does not include teaming up with the government, and it definitely does not end with nobody going to jail over all this.

Amazing you can't even see the contradiction when you type it yourself. So if not the govt...who the hell is going to put them in jail? You? For what?

 

[dgordo]

The bolded is incorrect, when simply saying under 5%, what you're really talking about is BILLIONS in dollars. Schiff, is much more intelligent than you, I'll continue to listen to him.

At least you admitted that its forced sales driving the market lower.

Do you know how few us companies do business in china, what happens in china doesnt matter.

Here is peter's intelligence put into the market, ill continue to listen to people who make money for their clients instead.

https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...=550919&q=MUTF:EPIVX&&ei=sUShVognwuWYAbzfr-AH

Peter even managed to lose money in gold this year, you know how hard he must have tried to do that?

https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...91103&q=MUTF:EPGFX&&ei=wUWhVqHpEYa2mAGu4YDIBw

 

[HawktimusPrime]

At least you admitted that its forced sales driving the market lower.

Do you know how few us companies do business in china, what happens in china doesnt matter.

Here is peter's intelligence put into the market, ill continue to listen to people who make money for their clients instead.

https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...=550919&q=MUTF:EPIVX&&ei=sUShVognwuWYAbzfr-AH

The second biggest economy in the world will always have an effect on it's larger brother, and vice versa.

 

[NoleSoup4U]

Amazing you can't even see the contradiction when you type it yourself. So if not the govt...who the hell is going to put them in jail? You? For what?

It doesn't just start and end there. It's how these people make all their money. It's how easy it is to bribe one set of politicians. If you don't give the federal government the ability to protect and bail out these people, then the problems wouldn't be so dire. Are there still going to be crooks? Sure. There are crooks now, and there always will be, no matter how much you regulate. But, at least these crooks wouldn't get bailed out, and while some of them would probably still go free, many would be prosecuted for their crimes. In the system we have now, nobody goes to jail and nobody even faces charges because the federal government has the power to protect them.

 

[strummingram]

Are there still going to be crooks? Sure. There are crooks now, and there always will be, no matter how much you regulate. But, at least these crooks wouldn't get bailed out, and while some of them would probably still go free, many would be prosecuted for their crimes. In the system we have now, nobody goes to jail and nobody even faces charges because the federal government has the power to protect them.

Thank you. Not only has the power to protect them, but they have no choice but to protect them. They are in debt to the FED for god knows how much.

People who criticize a "libertarian" approach are starting from the skewed system we have in place now. The way this bought-off system works, the criminals not only run the scams, but they are in the highest positions IN THE FED! The "government" is really almost a token player. They were emasculated long ago! The whole system has evolved into corrupt cronyism WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S participation! Somehow people are convinced that this blatantly volatile, artifically-manipulated system is going to somehow be worse if there was actually accountability for malinvestment and the corruption in general. The FED, the government, and the financial hot rods are all on the same team.
There's no regulation or oversight or potential jail time for blowing holes in the economic structure. They are in all in the pockets of the banking cartel called The FED. You rarely see live chickens when the fox guards the chicken coop. Maybe they keep a rooster and hen alive to keep the eggs coming!

 

[dgordo]

Not true for good companies. Coke is at 26, pepsi at 28, kimberly clark at 83, even chevron at 17 (forward is 23).

There are always outliers, here is a 20 year chart:

https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-500-PE-Ratio-by-Month

The market was very reasonable priced coming into the year.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

The ECB announcement which helped the up turn today was due to a promise of more stimulus, as in more printed money because the world economy can't keep itself propped up. China already made this move earlier this week by pumping $Billions into the market.

Why does a stable world economy need this? I expect the Fed to do the same here in the near future as Schiff predicted they would.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

There are always outliers, here is a 20 year chart:

https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-500-PE-Ratio-by-Month

The market was very reasonable priced coming into the year.

Which is why $trillions in value was removed from them then?

 

[dgordo]

Which is why $trillions in value was removed from them then?

Because you are a troll that never made a cent investing.

 

[dgordo]

The ECB announcement which helped the up turn today was due to a promise of more stimulus, as in more printed money because the world economy can't keep itself propped up. China already made this move earlier this week by pumping $Billions into the market.

Why does a stable world economy need this? I expect the Fed to do the same here in the near future as Schiff predicted they would.

Its weird that he gets all his predictions right but never makes money.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Because you are a troll that never made a cent investing.

I gracefully accept your defeat. I own multiple properties, I don't need to invest.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Its weird that he gets all his predictions right but never makes money.

I'm willing to bet his personal portfolio is rather impressive. Likely due to his understanding of real investmen.

 

[dandh]

There are always outliers, here is a 20 year chart:

https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-500-PE-Ratio-by-Month

The market was very reasonable priced coming into the year.

That's not a link to a 20 year chart - it's to the entire time period of the S&P. Regardless, the 20 year average is skewed very high and not very useful, given off-the-charts stuff it includes around 2000 and 2009.

Historic PEs for good companies indicate that the market was high coming into the year, and still is.

 

[dgordo]

That's not a link to a 20 year chart - it's to the entire time period of the S&P. Regardless, the 20 year average is skewed very high and not very useful, given off-the-charts stuff it includes around 2000 and 2009.

Historic PEs for good companies indicate that the market was high coming into the year, and still is.

My bad, I assumed a resourceful guy like you could plug in the numbers. Don't like 20 years, look at the 50, same deal. But if your arbitrary term of good companies shows otherwise so be it.

 

[dgordo]

I'm willing to bet his personal portfolio is rather impressive. Likely due to his understanding of real investmen.

Tough bet since he doesn't tell anyone what he owns just what he sells to rubes.

 

[dgordo]

I gracefully accept your defeat. I own multiple properties, I don't need to invest.

Trolls gonna troll

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Trolls gonna troll

I already know you're a troll, no need to point it out. Plus you don't point that out....its part of the trolling code.

 

[Vroom_C14]

No the stocks are falling actually. Stocks, sky, same difference I guess.

If we get this when the stocks fall, why does the left beat their chest and toast when stocks rise?

 

[HawktimusPrime]

If we get this when the stocks fall, why does the left beat their chest and toast when stocks rise?

They're a curious bunch and I honestly can't say why they are so delusional. They pride themselves on their education and yet they don't have any real grasp on real world matters. They follow suit with the agendas that help to maintain animosity amongst the population.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

The fed should raise rates again. It's a good time to take the medicine and it actually may increase confidence in the domestic economy.

 

[joelbc1]

By the same line of reasoning Hawktimus as you are predicting the next recession...I will predict this is nothing but a master plan for the next economic recovery of the USA. The recovery will start soon after your anticipated recession begins. My glass is always half full.

 

[hawklandish]

Depends on his personal conditions. If he can only invest short term, the market would be a terrible place to be. But if he can go long term, it would be wise to buy in.

I guess I interpreted the word "never" to mean "never".

 

[hawklandish]

No

Then your post is really silly.

 

[Kenneth Griffin]

They're a curious bunch and I honestly can't say why they are so delusional. They pride themselves on their education and yet they don't have any real grasp on real world matters. They follow suit with the agendas that help to maintain animosity amongst the population.

I love it when people with no education dismiss education.