It’s over. It has been pointed out if she isn’t leading by 3-4 in national polls it is isn’t good for her. Hillary was in better position and lost. Biden was up by 4. Ding dong.
I continue to believe that Harris wins this, by virtue of winning Pennsylvania.
Re: the electoral college, as I've noted previously, these are the rules by which we govern ourselves, so whining rather than playing by them is basically an 18 month old without their binky. While I have no problem with trying to change them through the requisite constitutional processes, the principles underlying the EC remain sound. I kinda like the NE/ME approach as a happy medium in terms of the incentives the more I think about it.
I often see it said that the EC results in "6 or 7 states deciding the election." While the mathematical principle underlying that "point" is dubious, I wondered what things would look like if we accepted that principle and then applied it in the context of a popular vote. So for shits and giggles, I took a look at recent vote margins by state. Funnily enough, what you find is that 49 jurisdictions basically net out against one another (in 2020, to within an extraordinarily small 37,484 votes for the bottom 41 EV jurisdictions, and then within about 100,000 over 8 of the top ten EV states, for a net of about only 60,000 over 49 jurisdictions!), and two jurisdictions basically create Dmargins (as you might expect, CA and NY). (FWIW, the 2016 story is similar, though less dramatic, with a slightly smaller D margin from the 2 (6MM), and a slightly larger R margin in the other 49 (1.2M)
So again, the whole principle is stupid, but if "candidate focus" is your thing, the popular vote ain't really the solution.
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