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Kamala’s lead keeps dwindling. JFC this is pitiful.

Last update: 1:45 p.m., Sunday, October 20. The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win.


Dude, stop believing Silver.
 
Polls have undercounted the GOP candidate for sometime. The idea that they will miraculously undercount Democrats this year is wishful thinking.
I don’t think it’s. Matter of undercounting. It’s all within moe, and flip flops almost daily. Anybody who claims momentum is overstating things.
 
All you have to ask yourself why is MAGA so uniformly pushing a narrative (as usual to all starting in exact same time) that Kamala is collapsing and all the polls and betting sites show Trump is going to win but using international betting sites and dudes a whole bunch of lower rated pollsters that are cutting out urban centers…oh and Peter Thiel’s paid for guy who sold his soul.

Is it to

A) try to desperately push a narrative for how election was stolen over last four weeks of race or
B) new bold campaign strategy to do everything they can to internally lower their voter turnout and campaign donations last four weeks of race by making Trump voters think they have it won…
 
Dude, stop believing Silver.
VPjbKoe.png
 
All you have to ask yourself is why is MAGA so uniformly pushing a narrative that Kamala is collapsing and all the polls and betting sites show Trump is going to win using international betting sites and dudes bought by Peter Thiel and a whole bunch of lower rated pollsters that are cutting out urban centers…

Is it to
A) push narrative for how election was stolen or
B) do everything they can to internally lower their voter turnout by making people think they have it won…
The polls and betting market all show kamala cratering and you're asking why the right is excited? Lol the answer couldn't be any more obvious but I suppose you are voting for the platform that is putting tampon machines into boys bathrooms so I shouldn't be surprised.
 
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All you have to ask yourself is why is MAGA so uniformly pushing a narrative that Kamala is collapsing and all the polls and betting sites show Trump is going to win using international betting sites and dudes bought by Peter Thiel and a whole bunch of lower rated pollsters that are cutting out urban centers…

Is it to
A) push narrative for how election was stolen or
B) do everything they can to internally lower their voter turnout by making people think they have it won…
C)
giphy.webp
 
Polls have undercounted the GOP candidate for sometime. The idea that they will miraculously undercount Democrats this year is wishful thinking.
Except in the most recent election 2022 where the red wave didn’t happen despite the flood of polls saying it would. And 2012. It is not a good or safe assumption to assume polls didn't adjust from 2016 or 2020.
 
All you have to ask yourself why is MAGA so uniformly pushing a narrative (as usual to all starting in exact same time) that Kamala is collapsing and all the polls and betting sites show Trump is going to win but using international betting sites and dudes a whole bunch of lower rated pollsters that are cutting out urban centers…oh and Peter Thiel’s paid for guy who sold his soul.

Is it to

A) try to desperately push a narrative for how election was stolen over last four weeks of race or
B) new bold campaign strategy to do everything they can to internally lower their voter turnout and campaign donations last four weeks of race by making Trump voters think they have it won…
A) and
C) inflate the price of DJT so Trump can cash out and make a little more money
 
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Except in the most recent election 2022 where the red wave didn’t happen despite the flood of polls saying it would. And 2012. It is not a good or safe assumption to assume polls didn't adjust from 2016 or 2020.
We only have two results for Trump. That's a really small sample size. Yet people fall in the trap of thinking it's a concrete rule that he will always be undercounted.
 
Except in the most recent election 2022 where the red wave didn’t happen despite the flood of polls saying it would. And 2012. It is not a good or safe assumption to assume polls didn't adjust from 2016 or 2020.
The Presidential polls in 2020 undercounted GOP ores worse than in 2016. Biden was up 8% in the polls but only won by 4%. Hillary led by 3.7% and won by 2.5%.
 
P

Polls over counted Romney. That was just a few elections ago. You act like any of this is set in stone. It isn't.
But this is Trump, so good reason to believe same candidate, same polling problem.

Again, your opinion is based on nothing but wishful thinking.
 
But this is Trump, so good reason to believe same candidate, same polling problem.

Again, your opinion is based on nothing but wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking? Polls miss all the time. They even miss with Trump. If you want to put all your stock in them, knock yourself out
 
Wishful thinking? Polls miss all the time. They even miss with Trump. If you want to put all your stock in them, knock yourself out

It would be stupid to bet on polls that are within the margin of error.

But, again, you have no basis for your prediction; just hope. I also hope she outperforms the polls. But I am not confusing hope with conviction.
 
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