March 12 ESPN Bracketology (Final Edition): IOWA remains an 8 Seed (in Birmingham). Bracket Matrix has them as a 9 Seed

[Franisdaman]

Seems like IOWA is either a 6 or 7 seed right now.

Andy Katz has us as a 7 seed. Northwestern's big win vs Purdue is paying dividends.

He, like most, have 8 B1G teams in.

How's Iowa vs Nevada sound?

 

[icwesthawk]

Here is how Iowa finished in Kenpom adjusted defense the past 5 years:

2019.....111
2020.....97
2021......75
2022.....80
2023....142 (as of today)

file this under things that don't seem right

 

[HawkHoops80]

KenPom does defensive efficiency based off of 100 possessions against an average team. This year Iowa is giving up an average of 103.7 points per 100 possessions. Last year Iowa gave up an average of 97.8 points per 100 possessions.

Given that most Iowa games are slightly below 70 possessions that's roughly 72.6 points vs 68.5 points. So for fans it's a marginal difference that would be tough to really notice.

 

[Franisdaman]

Here's where our 6 remaining games fall.

We have TWO more Quad 1 opportunities at the moment.


Quad 1: Home (1-30), Neutral (1-50), Away (1-75)

Sun Feb 19 at # 44 N'western, 5:30 pm CT, BTN
Tue Feb 28 at #17 Indiana, 6 pm CT, ESPN or ESPN2


Quad 2: Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100), Away (76-135)

Thu Feb 16 vs # 54 Ohio State, 8 pm CT, ESPN2
Wed Feb 22 at #80 Wisconsin, 8 pm CT, BTN
Sat Feb 25 vs # 32 Michigan State, 11 am CT, ESPN or ESPN2


Quad 3: Home (76-160), Neutral (101-200), Away (136-240)

Sun Mar 5 vs # 100 Nebraska, 1 pm CT, BTN


Quad 4: Home (161-358), Neutral (201-358), Away (241-358)

N/A

 

[kceasthawk]

KenPom does defensive efficiency based off of 100 possessions against an average team. This year Iowa is giving up an average of 103.7 points per 100 possessions. Last year Iowa gave up an average of 97.8 points per 100 possessions.

Given that most Iowa games are slightly below 70 possessions that's roughly 72.6 points vs 68.5 points. So for fans it's a marginal difference that would be tough to really notice.

Thats why I don't get too carried away with these rankings. Lots of times its tenths of percentage points that seperate teams, which makes it not much difference of your 90th or 110th.

 

[Franisdaman]

Thats why I don't get too carried away with these rankings. Lots of times its tenths of percentage points that seperate teams, which makes it not much difference of your 90th or 110th.

I realize most Iowa fans simply want to make a Sweet 16. However, over the last 20 seasons, KenPom has shown that your defense needs to be ranked at least the following to achieve higher goals:

70: to make a Final 4
22: to win a National Championship

Also, keep in mind that In the 2021 NCAA Tournament, we were the #2 seed and were thinking Final 4 because we essentially had 4 NBA players on that team: Luka, Joe, Keegan and Kris. Unfortunately we only advanced to the round of 32 (we scored 80 vs Oregon but gave up 95). And that team's defense ranking was just #75, which, again, is not good enough for a Final 4.

 

[Franisdaman]

The Field of 68 has us as a 7 seed.

 

[Franisdaman]

As of today, Feb 14, EIGHT B1G Teams are projected to make the Big Dance.

Iowa is projected as a 6 seed and would face #11 seed Boise State with the winner facing #3 Marquette/#14 Hofstra in Columbus.

Wisconsin is the 4th team OUT. Penn State has completely fallen off the bubble.


The 8 B1G Teams:

1 Purdue
4 Indiana
5 Illinois
6 IOWA
6 Rutgers @MrsScrew
7 Michigan State
7 Northwestern
8 Maryland



Link to full bracket:

Men's Bracketology: How the Fighting Illini pulled off a surprise reboot

No one expected much from Illinois this year. But the Illini could have a shot at a No. 1 seed.

www.espn.com

100 brackets in Bracket Matrix currently have Iowa as the top #7 seed.

Link:

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[Franisdaman]

file this under things that don't seem right

Ken Pomeroy has been doing this for 21 years now. Unfortunately, what the defensive numbers do tell us is that we might be lucky to squeak into a Sweet 16 but that's probably it.

 

[Birky]

KenPom does defensive efficiency based off of 100 possessions against an average team. This year Iowa is giving up an average of 103.7 points per 100 possessions. Last year Iowa gave up an average of 97.8 points per 100 possessions.

Given that most Iowa games are slightly below 70 possessions that's roughly 72.6 points vs 68.5 points. So for fans it's a marginal difference that would be tough to really notice.

Yep.

It could also mean there are a couple of outlier games that skewed the stats.

If so, the median might be a better indicator. I have no idea if true, but it seems plausible.

 

[Franisdaman]

KenPom does defensive efficiency based off of 100 possessions against an average team. This year Iowa is giving up an average of 103.7 points per 100 possessions. Last year Iowa gave up an average of 97.8 points per 100 possessions.

Given that most Iowa games are slightly below 70 possessions that's roughly 72.6 points vs 68.5 points. So for fans it's a marginal difference that would be tough to really notice.

Thats why I don't get too carried away with these rankings. Lots of times its tenths of percentage points that seperate teams, which makes it not much difference of your 90th or 110th.

Yep.

It could also mean there are a couple of outlier games that skewed the stats.

If so, the median might be a better indicator. I have no idea if true, but it seems plausible.

I am not going to try to act like an expert on this; none of us are. But what I do know is KenPom has been doing this for 21 years now. Our offense is as good as ever this year (currently #6 in the nation). Our defense is dead last in the B1G. Sound familiar?

Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:

* the lowest any National Champion finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn)

* the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

Based on this, Purdue looks like the only true national title contender from the B1G.

The B1G teams ranked by defense (per KenPom):

Defense..Offense...Team
Rank........Rank........Rank
2.................132............16.....Rutgers
16.................76...........30....Michigan State
17.................49...........20.....Illinois
23..................7..............4.....Purdue
25................98...........47.....Northwestern
27.................42...........25.....Maryland
29...............146...........71.....Wisconsin
37..................18...........19.....Indiana
59...............179..........102....Nebraska
68................46...........53.....Michigan
94................27............51.....Ohio State
115................21...........55.....Penn State
137............299..........224....Minnesota
142..............6..........34....Iowa

 

[HawkHoops80]

I am not going to try to act like an expert on this; none of us are. But what I do know is KenPom has been doing this for 21 years now. Our offense is as good as ever this year (currently #6 in the nation). Our defense is dead last in the B1G. Sound familiar?

Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:

* the lowest any National Champion finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn)

* the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

Based on this, Purdue looks like the only true national title contender from the B1G.

The B1G teams ranked by defense (per KenPom):

Defense..Offense...Team
Rank........Rank........Rank
2.................132............16.....Rutgers
16.................76...........30....Michigan State
17.................49...........20.....Illinois
23..................7..............4.....Purdue
25................98...........47.....Northwestern
27.................42...........25.....Maryland
29...............146...........71.....Wisconsin
37..................18...........19.....Indiana
59...............179..........102....Nebraska
68................46...........53.....Michigan
94................27............51.....Ohio State
115................21...........55.....Penn State
137............299..........224....Minnesota
142..............6..........34....Iowa

No one is arguing that the defense is good here. We all know that it's bad. What I'm saying is the ranking is sometimes not the greatest thing to look at, but rather the true number.
Last year's Iowa defense would be ranked 45th overall this year if it had the same efficiency number of 97.8. Similarly, Iowa's current defense of 103.7 would have been ranked 198 last year. And the difference between last year and this season is about 4 points per game in a 70 possession game. That may seem like a small amount, but over the course of a 30+ game sample that adds up over time.
The difference between Iowa's #142 ranked defense and Cal St. Fullerton's #70 overall defense this year is a difference of about 2.5 points per game. So yes, noting that a final four run has never happened with a defense worse than #70 is an interesting statistic, but that's basically the difference of Iowa preventing 1 less 3 pointer every game in the tournament if that makes sense.

 

[warriors dad]

6 seed is the ticket for sweet 16 this year. 8/9 or 7 makes it very hard to get there. 5 seed ... Well we saw what happened last year! 6 is the ticket!!

 

[kwik44]

6 seed is the ticket for sweet 16 this year. 8/9 or 7 makes it very hard to get there. 5 seed ... Well we saw what happened last year! 6 is the ticket!!

Matched up with Boise, then 3 seed Marquette, if we're being choosy.

 

[Franisdaman]

No one is arguing that the defense is good here. We all know that it's bad. What I'm saying is the ranking is sometimes not the greatest thing to look at, but rather the true number.
Last year's Iowa defense would be ranked 45th overall this year if it had the same efficiency number of 97.8. Similarly, Iowa's current defense of 103.7 would have been ranked 198 last year. And the difference between last year and this season is about 4 points per game in a 70 possession game. That may seem like a small amount, but over the course of a 30+ game sample that adds up over time.
The difference between Iowa's #142 ranked defense and Cal St. Fullerton's #70 overall defense this year is a difference of about 2.5 points per game. So yes, noting that a final four run has never happened with a defense worse than #70 is an interesting statistic, but that's basically the difference of Iowa preventing 1 less 3 pointer every game in the tournament if that makes sense.

Speaking of last year's Iowa defense, it never lost to the #343 team in the nation, either.

 

[Franisdaman]

Lunardi has us as the #23 overall team (3rd best 6 seed)

 

[Franisdaman]

Not sure allowing Bama to play the first 2 rounds in Birmingham would be fair. Their Sweet 16 would be in Louisville.....

 

[Franisdaman]

6 seed is the ticket for sweet 16 this year. 8/9 or 7 makes it very hard to get there. 5 seed ... Well we saw what happened last year! 6 is the ticket!!

Matched up with Boise, then 3 seed Marquette, if we're being choosy.

That Northwestern win over Purdue has paid the Cats huge dividends

 

[HawkHoops80]

Not sure allowing Bama to play the first 2 rounds in Birmingham would be fair. Their Sweet 16 would be in Louisville.....

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That's always how top seeds work--they get preferences to the sites. If Iowa was a #1 seed they would absolutely be in Des Moines for first 2 rounds and likely Kansas City for sweet 16/elite 8. Iowa State had a path for that same thing about a month ago, but losing 4 of 5 isn't going to get them there.

 

[Franisdaman]

That's always how top seeds work--they get preferences to the sites. If Iowa was a #1 seed they would absolutely be in Des Moines for first 2 rounds and likely Kansas City for sweet 16/elite 8. Iowa State had a path for that same thing about a month ago, but losing 4 of 5 isn't going to get them there.

I realize that's how top seeds work. Just questioning whether it's fair; that's all. It's similar to past tournaments when it seemed like Duke was always playing in Greensboro.

 

[HawkHoops80]

I realize that's how top seeds work. Just questioning whether it's fair; that's all. It's similar to past tournaments when it seemed like Duke was always playing in Greensboro.

Eh, that doesn't really bother me I guess. It's a nice reward for teams and makes the regular season matter a bit more. I'm glad that there seems to be a good rotation of first round sites now so one team isn't playing semi-home games every season.

 

[Franisdaman]

The next 3 weeks are gonna be crazy....

8 teams with either 5 or 6 conference losses. And we have the tie breakers over each of them with the exception of Michigan State.

Standings heading into tonight:

 

[kwik44]

Didn't they ship Iowa out to Dayton as a 2 seed?

Waiting for a favorable match-up for once.

 

[HawkHoops80]

Didn't they ship Iowa out to Dayton as a 2 seed?

Waiting for a favorable match-up for once.

The year Iowa was a 2 seed was the covid bubble in Indianapolis.

The last time that Iowa was a high enough seed to get location preference was 2006 when they went to Detroit.

 

[Franisdaman]

The year Iowa was a 2 seed was the covid bubble in Indianapolis.

The last time that Iowa was a high enough seed to get location preference was 2006 when they went to Detroit.

too soon.

 

[Franisdaman]

Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

He has Kansas (Midwest/Kansas City) as the overall #1 seed, followed by Purdue (South/Louisville), Alabama (East/New York) and Houston (West/Las Vegas).

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

Today, Feb 15th, he has #6 seed Iowa in the West Region playing #11 Mississippi State/North Carolina with the winner playing #3 Gonzaga/#14 UCSB (in Sacramento).


He has 9 B1G teams in as of this morning, Feb 15.

1 Purdue (#2 overall seed)
5 Indiana (#17 overall seed)
6 IOWA (#22 overall seed)
6 Illinois (#23 overall seed)
7 Northwestern (#27 overall seed)
8 Michigan State (#32 overall seed)
9 Rutgers (#33 overall seed) @MrsScrew
9 Maryland (#35 overall seed)
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 IN) (#44 overall seed)


Link:

Shelby's Bracket WAG

www.bracketwag.com

 

[Franisdaman]

I didn't know Chris Collins was on the hot seat.

Northwestern has shot up to a #7 seed in many expert opinions.

Sunday's game at Northwestern will be fun.

 

[Franisdaman]

Lunardi now has 9 BIG teams in.

Wisconsin is one of the last 4 in.

The other 8 B1G teams, of course:
Purdue
Indiana
Illinois
IOWA
Rutgers
Michigan State
Northwestern
Maryland

 

[icwesthawk]

We need that Wisky game badly from this fans perspective

 

[Franisdaman]

We need that Wisky game badly from this fans perspective

We have 3 tough road games left, that's for sure. It would be nice to help knock Wisconsin out of the NCAA Tournament, too.

Here's where our 6 remaining games fall as far as NET goes.

Quad 1: Home (1-30), Neutral (1-50), Away (1-75)

Sun Feb 19 at # 43 N'western, 5:30 pm CT, BTN
Tue Feb 28 at #17 Indiana, 6 pm CT, ESPN or ESPN2


Quad 2: Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100), Away (76-135)

Thu Feb 16 vs # 53 Ohio State, 8 pm CT, ESPN2
Wed Feb 22 at #77 Wisconsin, 8 pm CT, BTN
Sat Feb 25 vs # 34 Michigan State, 11 am CT, ESPN or ESPN2


Quad 3: Home (76-160), Neutral (101-200), Away (136-240)

Sun Mar 5 vs #94 Nebraska, 1 pm CT, BTN


Quad 4: Home (161-358), Neutral (201-358), Away (241-358)

N/A

 

[Franisdaman]

Eh, that doesn't really bother me I guess. It's a nice reward for teams and makes the regular season matter a bit more. I'm glad that there seems to be a good rotation of first round sites now so one team isn't playing semi-home games every season.

#10 Tennessee beats #1 Alabama.

The conference tournaments and NCAA tournament are going to be wild.

 

[HawkHoops80]

#10 Tennessee beats #1 Alabama.

The conference tournaments and NCAA tournament are going to be wild.

There just truly isn't a dominant team this year. Weakest 1 and 2 seed lines I can remember.

 

[perryhawk]

There just truly isn't a dominant team this year. Weakest 1 and 2 seed lines I can remember.

Agreed but will add there are a lot of very good teams…..

 

[Franisdaman]

Agreed but will add there are a lot of very good teams…..

things are so wide open. who knows, maybe this is the year Iowa breaks that Sweet 16 drought

 

[Franisdaman]

Out of 100 brackets, Iowa is still the top #7 seed.

Their average seed is 7.31.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

 

[ISUBryceC]

The sports gods have an entire division devoted to sabotaging the Minnesota Vikings' special teams. They don't have time for CFB.

How dare you

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

How dare you

Clown shows aren't the same as sports god sabotage...............

 

[Franisdaman]

Clown shows aren't the same as sports god sabotage...............

Do you think this team has a Sweet 16 in them?

 

[Franisdaman]

Current overall seeds and (average seeds), per Bracket Matrix:

1 Purdue (1.00 )
5 Indiana (4.47)
6 Illinois (5.90)
6 Rutgers (6.86)
7 IOWA (7.31)
7 Michigan State (7.54)
8 Northwestern (8.07)
8 Maryland (8.17)


On the Outside, Looking in:

Wisconsin (11.03)

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[Franisdaman]

As of this morning, Iowa is still a 6 seed and #23 overall.

As you can see, Lunardi has 9 B1G teams in.