March 12 ESPN Bracketology (Final Edition): IOWA remains an 8 Seed (in Birmingham). Bracket Matrix has them as a 9 Seed
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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Those 8 teams:
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
| 7 | 7 | Kansas | Big 12 | 21-5 | 6-3 | 3-1 | 12-1 | 12-5 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| 9 | 9 | Texas | Big 12 | 20-6 | 4-4 | 2-1 | 14-1 | 9-6 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 10 | 10 | Baylor | Big 12 | 20-6 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 13-2 | 9-6 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| 4 | 4 | Purdue | Big Ten | 23-3 | 7-2 | 4-0 | 12-1 | 9-3 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| 15 | 16 | Iowa St. | Big 12 | 17-8 | 2-6 | 2-1 | 13-1 | 8-7 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| 39 | 39 | Iowa | Big Ten | 16-9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 12-2 | 7-6 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alabama | SEC | 22-4 | 8-2 | 2-2 | 12-0 | 7-4 | 6-0 | 6-0 | 3-0 |
| 43 | 43 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 19-7 | 6-2 | 1-1 | 12-4 | 7-4 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 8-0 |
As of today, Feb 17, NINE B1G Teams are projected to make the Big Dance.
Iowa is projected as a 6 seed and would face #11 seed Kentucky/North Carolina (!!!) with the winner facing #3 Marquette/#14 E. Washington in Columbus.
Penn State has completely fallen off the bubble.
The 9 B1G Teams:
1 Purdue
5 Indiana
6 IOWA
6 Illinois
6 Northwestern
7 Michigan State
7 Maryland
8 Rutgers @MrsScrew
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 IN)
Link to full bracket:
96 brackets in Bracket Matrix currently have Iowa as the top #7 seed.
Link:
Iowa is projected as a 6 seed and would face #11 seed Kentucky/North Carolina (!!!) with the winner facing #3 Marquette/#14 E. Washington in Columbus.
Penn State has completely fallen off the bubble.
The 9 B1G Teams:
1 Purdue
5 Indiana
6 IOWA
6 Illinois
6 Northwestern
7 Michigan State
7 Maryland
8 Rutgers @MrsScrew
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 IN)
Link to full bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the Fighting Illini pulled off a surprise reboot
No one expected much from Illinois this year. But the Illini could have a shot at a No. 1 seed.
www.espn.com
96 brackets in Bracket Matrix currently have Iowa as the top #7 seed.
Link:
CB is officially crazy when KY and UNC match up in Dayton to face the mighty hawk!
What a big game on Sunday!Per Joe Lunardi (ESPN), Iowa is the #24 overall seed (last 6 seed)
N'w only scored 64 points in both of their last 2 home wins (over Purdue & IU). Iowa put up 86 against them on Jan 31. Whose style will prevail?
its amazing how Northwestern is currently looking at a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament
Current overall seeds and (average seeds), per Bracket Matrix:
1 Purdue (1.03 )
5 Indiana (4.71)
6 Illinois (6.35)
6 Northwestern (6.96)
7 IOWA (7.13)
7 Michigan State (7.23)
7 Maryland (7.50)
8 Rutgers (7.76)
11 Wisconsin (11.05)
1 Purdue (1.03 )
5 Indiana (4.71)
6 Illinois (6.35)
6 Northwestern (6.96)
7 IOWA (7.13)
7 Michigan State (7.23)
7 Maryland (7.50)
8 Rutgers (7.76)
11 Wisconsin (11.05)
The Selection Committee gave us seeds 1-4 during the Bracket Preview. Andy Katz now provides his predictions for the rest of the field.
Iowa, again, is a #6 seed.
Iowa, again, is a #6 seed.
If only the Hawks could have done enough to eke out a win vs EIU .....
They'd be a stone-cold lock for the tourney as of right now*.
* - assuming they win their last 2 at Carver [vs MSU & NEB].
They'd be a stone-cold lock for the tourney as of right now*.
* - assuming they win their last 2 at Carver [vs MSU & NEB].
Cincinnati was a 7 seed in Columbus in 2019 when Iowa beat them. Tenn was two seed.
Baylor was a 6 seed in San Antonio in 2014. Creighton was a 3 seed.
Minnesota was a ten seed in 2019 and beat 7 seed Louisville and then played 2 seed MSU in Des Moines.
Sometimes the lower seeded team does end up close to home. Anything can happen.
I would take.The Selection Committee gave us seeds 1-4 during the Bracket Preview. Andy Katz now provides his predictions for the rest of the field.
Iowa, again, is a #6 seed.
Committee leaned on NET ranking a lot. Me thinks we’re actually a 7, closer to an 8 than a 6 since our NET ranking isn’t very good.
IU is not deserving of a Top 16 seed, no matter their metrics; imo.
TJD has an off night and they are very beatable. Even when he's on, they are still vulnerable - unless the rest of the team is making shots.
TJD has an off night and they are very beatable. Even when he's on, they are still vulnerable - unless the rest of the team is making shots.
Interesting that Xavier's NET is 26 (a 7 seed?) but they are #16 (a 4 seed) per the Committee.
Similarly, K State's NET is 20 (a 5 seed?) but they are #12 (a 3 seed) per the Committee.
Iowa is #36 in the NET today. So, I could see how Iowa could get moved to a 7 or a 6 seed.
A comparison:
Committee.............. NET
Ranking....................Ranking
1. Alabama ....................2
2. Houston.....................1
3. Purdue.......................5
4. Kansas.......................6
5. Texas..........................9
6. Arizona.....................11
7. Baylor........................12
8. UCLA..........................4
9. Tennessee.................3
10. Virginia....................16
11. Iowa State................14
12. Kansas State...........20
13. Indiana......................17
14. Marquette................15
15. Gonzaga....................10
16. Xavier........................26
Top 40 Teams, per NET Rankings:
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
| 1 | 1 | Houston | AAC | 24-2 | 9-0 | 2-0 | 13-2 | 4-1 | 7-0 | 4-1 | 9-0 |
| 2 | 2 | Alabama | SEC | 22-4 | 8-2 | 2-2 | 12-0 | 7-4 | 6-0 | 7-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | 3 | Tennessee | SEC | 20-6 | 4-3 | 4-1 | 12-2 | 6-2 | 3-4 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| 4 | 4 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 22-4 | 7-2 | 1-2 | 14-0 | 4-4 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
| 5 | 5 | Purdue | Big Ten | 23-4 | 7-3 | 4-0 | 12-1 | 9-4 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| 6 | 6 | Kansas | Big 12 | 21-5 | 6-3 | 3-1 | 12-1 | 12-5 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| 7 | 7 | Saint Mary's (CA) | WCC | 22-5 | 6-1 | 3-2 | 13-2 | 2-1 | 6-2 | 10-2 | 4-0 |
| 8 | 8 | UConn | Big East | 19-7 | 4-5 | 3-0 | 12-2 | 5-6 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 6-0 |
| 9 | 9 | Texas | Big 12 | 20-6 | 4-4 | 2-1 | 14-1 | 9-6 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 10 | 10 | Gonzaga | WCC | 21-5 | 6-2 | 4-2 | 11-1 | 3-4 | 6-0 | 6-1 | 6-0 |
| 11 | 11 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 23-4 | 5-3 | 4-0 | 14-1 | 6-2 | 6-1 | 3-1 | 8-0 |
| 12 | 12 | Baylor | Big 12 | 20-6 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 13-2 | 9-6 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| 13 | 13 | Creighton | Big East | 17-9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 12-1 | 4-6 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 4-0 |
| 14 | 15 | Iowa St. | Big 12 | 17-8 | 2-6 | 2-1 | 13-1 | 8-7 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| 15 | 14 | Marquette | Big East | 21-6 | 6-4 | 1-1 | 14-1 | 5-5 | 4-0 | 5-1 | 7-0 |
| 16 | 16 | Virginia | ACC | 20-4 | 6-3 | 2-0 | 12-1 | 4-4 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 7-0 |
| 17 | 17 | Indiana | Big Ten | 18-8 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 13-1 | 5-7 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
| 18 | 18 | San Diego St. | Mountain West | 20-5 | 7-1 | 1-3 | 12-1 | 2-4 | 6-1 | 11-0 | 1-0 |
| 19 | 19 | Maryland | Big Ten | 18-8 | 2-6 | 2-1 | 14-1 | 4-7 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 8-0 |
| 20 | 20 | Kansas St. | Big 12 | 19-7 | 3-6 | 3-0 | 13-1 | 6-6 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
| 21 | 21 | Arkansas | SEC | 17-9 | 2-6 | 3-1 | 12-2 | 2-6 | 4-2 | 8-1 | 3-0 |
| 22 | 22 | Fla. Atlantic | C-USA | 22-3 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 13-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 9-0 | 8-0 |
| 23 | 24 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 15-11 | 2-7 | 2-1 | 11-3 | 5-11 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| 24 | 23 | Boise St. | Mountain West | 19-6 | 5-4 | 4-1 | 10-1 | 1-3 | 7-1 | 5-2 | 6-0 |
| 25 | 25 | TCU | Big 12 | 17-9 | 2-6 | 4-0 | 11-3 | 5-8 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 8-1 |
| 26 | 26 | Xavier | Big East | 19-7 | 5-4 | 1-2 | 13-1 | 5-5 | 6-1 | 2-1 | 6-0 |
| 27 | 27 | Auburn | SEC | 18-8 | 4-5 | 2-1 | 12-2 | 2-6 | 6-2 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| 28 | 28 | Illinois | Big Ten | 17-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 12-2 | 3-7 | 4-1 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
| 29 | 29 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 16-10 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 14-3 | 4-6 | 4-2 | 1-2 | 7-0 |
| 30 | 30 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 21-5 | 6-4 | 1-1 | 14-0 | 6-4 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 7-0 |
| 31 | 32 | Nevada | Mountain West | 19-6 | 5-5 | 2-1 | 12-0 | 3-4 | 6-2 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| 32 | 31 | Texas A&M | SEC | 19-7 | 5-3 | 1-3 | 13-1 | 4-4 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 8-2 |
| 33 | 33 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12 | 16-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 11-3 | 5-7 | 3-2 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| 34 | 34 | Duke | ACC | 18-8 | 2-6 | 3-2 | 13-0 | 3-8 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 9-0 |
| 35 | 35 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 16-9 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 10-2 | 5-7 | 4-1 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| 36 | 36 | Iowa | Big Ten | 17-9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 13-2 | 7-6 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| 37 | 37 | Utah St. | Mountain West | 19-7 | 4-4 | 4-1 | 11-2 | 0-4 | 5-1 | 11-0 | 3-2 |
| 38 | 38 | NC State | ACC | 20-7 | 4-5 | 3-1 | 13-1 | 3-5 | 3-2 | 4-0 | 10-0 |
| 39 | 39 | Kentucky | SEC | 17-9 | 4-4 | 1-2 | 12-3 | 2-7 | 6-1 | 3-0 | 6-1 |
| 40 | 40 | Providence | Big East | 19-7 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 14-0 | 4-5 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 9-0 |
yeah, that loss in the quad 4 column sticks out like a sore thumb
Even if Iowa deserves a higher seed, would you settle for 'being screwed' by the Committee slotting the Hawks into the 8/9 game in Kansas' region [assuming KU stays as a 1]?
I think I would. But only because there is no way that KU plays its first two games anywhere but Des Moines, as a 1-seed.
I think I would. But only because there is no way that KU plays its first two games anywhere but Des Moines, as a 1-seed.
The game(s) would be very tough, to be sure, but the potential for lots of crowd support would be enormous.
Big home win for IU today over Illinois (71-68).
Lord, Rutgers eeked out a win at Wisconsin, 58-57.
The B1G is nuts this year.
I want nothing more than to beat WI in Madison and knock them out of the tournament. I can't describe how sweet that would be!
A team's own NET is pretty low in terms of priority. The committee has always used it as a sorting tool rather than a strict ranking system. Even on the NCAA's website explaining the NET it talks about how it's used to get a good idea of a team's resume (AKA the quadrant records are what matter). We should care significantly more about our opponent's NET rank than our own NET rank. Our own NET rank holds no more importance than our KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI rank which are also on the teamsheets for the committee.Interesting that Xavier's NET is 26 (a 7 seed?) but they are #16 (a 4 seed) per the Committee.
Similarly, K State's NET is 20 (a 5 seed?) but they are #12 (a 3 seed) per the Committee.
Iowa is #36 in the NET today. So, I could see how Iowa could get moved to a 7 or a 6 seed.
A comparison:
Committee.............. NET
Ranking....................Ranking
1. Alabama ....................2
2. Houston.....................1
3. Purdue.......................5
4. Kansas.......................6
5. Texas..........................9
6. Arizona.....................11
7. Baylor........................12
8. UCLA..........................4
9. Tennessee.................3
10. Virginia....................16
11. Iowa State................14
12. Kansas State...........20
13. Indiana......................17
14. Marquette................15
15. Gonzaga....................10
16. Xavier........................26
Top 40 Teams, per NET Rankings:
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
1 1 Houston AAC 24-2 9-0 2-0 13-2 4-1 7-0 4-1 9-0 2 2 Alabama SEC 22-4 8-2 2-2 12-0 7-4 6-0 7-0 2-0 3 3 Tennessee SEC 20-6 4-3 4-1 12-2 6-2 3-4 5-0 6-0 4 4 UCLA Pac-12 22-4 7-2 1-2 14-0 4-4 7-0 7-0 4-0 5 5 Purdue Big Ten 23-4 7-3 4-0 12-1 9-4 4-0 4-0 6-0 6 6 Kansas Big 12 21-5 6-3 3-1 12-1 12-5 4-0 1-0 4-0 7 7 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 22-5 6-1 3-2 13-2 2-1 6-2 10-2 4-0 8 8 UConn Big East 19-7 4-5 3-0 12-2 5-6 3-0 5-1 6-0 9 9 Texas Big 12 20-6 4-4 2-1 14-1 9-6 2-0 3-0 6-0 10 10 Gonzaga WCC 21-5 6-2 4-2 11-1 3-4 6-0 6-1 6-0 11 11 Arizona Pac-12 23-4 5-3 4-0 14-1 6-2 6-1 3-1 8-0 12 12 Baylor Big 12 20-6 4-3 3-1 13-2 9-6 4-0 1-0 6-0 13 13 Creighton Big East 17-9 3-5 2-3 12-1 4-6 4-2 5-1 4-0 14 15 Iowa St. Big 12 17-8 2-6 2-1 13-1 8-7 2-1 1-0 6-0 15 14 Marquette Big East 21-6 6-4 1-1 14-1 5-5 4-0 5-1 7-0 16 16 Virginia ACC 20-4 6-3 2-0 12-1 4-4 5-0 4-0 7-0 17 17 Indiana Big Ten 18-8 4-6 1-1 13-1 5-7 3-1 3-0 7-0 18 18 San Diego St. Mountain West 20-5 7-1 1-3 12-1 2-4 6-1 11-0 1-0 19 19 Maryland Big Ten 18-8 2-6 2-1 14-1 4-7 3-1 3-0 8-0 20 20 Kansas St. Big 12 19-7 3-6 3-0 13-1 6-6 3-1 3-0 7-0 21 21 Arkansas SEC 17-9 2-6 3-1 12-2 2-6 4-2 8-1 3-0 22 22 Fla. Atlantic C-USA 22-3 9-3 0-0 13-0 2-1 3-2 9-0 8-0 23 24 West Virginia Big 12 15-11 2-7 2-1 11-3 5-11 3-0 1-0 6-0 24 23 Boise St. Mountain West 19-6 5-4 4-1 10-1 1-3 7-1 5-2 6-0 25 25 TCU Big 12 17-9 2-6 4-0 11-3 5-8 4-0 0-0 8-1 26 26 Xavier Big East 19-7 5-4 1-2 13-1 5-5 6-1 2-1 6-0 27 27 Auburn SEC 18-8 4-5 2-1 12-2 2-6 6-2 6-0 4-0 28 28 Illinois Big Ten 17-8 3-4 2-2 12-2 3-7 4-1 3-0 7-0 29 29 Rutgers Big Ten 16-10 2-6 0-1 14-3 4-6 4-2 1-2 7-0 30 30 Miami (FL) ACC 21-5 6-4 1-1 14-0 6-4 3-0 5-1 7-0 31 32 Nevada Mountain West 19-6 5-5 2-1 12-0 3-4 6-2 6-0 4-0 32 31 Texas A&M SEC 19-7 5-3 1-3 13-1 4-4 2-1 5-0 8-2 33 33 Oklahoma St. Big 12 16-10 3-5 2-2 11-3 5-7 3-2 3-1 5-0 34 34 Duke ACC 18-8 2-6 3-2 13-0 3-8 4-0 2-0 9-0 35 35 Michigan St. Big Ten 16-9 4-5 2-2 10-2 5-7 4-1 3-1 4-0 36 36 Iowa Big Ten 17-9 3-5 1-2 13-2 7-6 4-1 0-1 6-1 37 37 Utah St. Mountain West 19-7 4-4 4-1 11-2 0-4 5-1 11-0 3-2 38 38 NC State ACC 20-7 4-5 3-1 13-1 3-5 3-2 4-0 10-0 39 39 Kentucky SEC 17-9 4-4 1-2 12-3 2-7 6-1 3-0 6-1 40 40 Providence Big East 19-7 5-5 0-2 14-0 4-5 2-1 4-1 9-0
We've seen team's with a NET in the 30s get left out of the tournament and teams get into the tournament with a NET in the 70s (Rutgers last year).
it will be fun to see this all play out. the next 2 weeks and then the B1G Tournament are going to be crazy good
Good discussion.
I was just replying to @StormHawk42 's comment where he felt that the committee leaned on NET rankings a lot.
Do you think "everyone" has it right with Iowa being a 6 seed at this point in time?
Interesting debate. Some are saying UConn (not Indiana) should have been one of the Top 16 teams.
Did they get the other 15 teams right?
UConn's Resume (start of day, Feb 18):
19-7 record
#8 NET ranking
5-6 Quad 1
3-0 Quad 2
5-1 Quad 3
6-0 Quad 4
Indiana's Resume (start of day, Feb 18):
18-8 record
#17 NET ranking
5-7 Quad 1
3-1 Quad 2
3-0 Quad 3
7-0 Quad 4
Going by those metrics, UConn absolutely deserves to be in the Top 16 before Indiana does.
not sure if releasing the top 16 three weeks before Selection Sunday is a good idea or not. the debate on who's getting snubbed starts early.
I think Iowa's right there on the 6/7 seed line. Winning tomorrow and I don't see an argument to keep them off the 6.
It's pretty wild to me that the committee had Indiana ahead of UCONN. UCONN has better metrics across the board, 4 Q1A wins including a neutral court win over the committee's number 1 overall team. Makes me think the committee is actually using recency bias a bit due to UCONN dropping a few of late and Indiana surging. Hopefully Iowa finishes strong if the committee is going to react that strongly to recent games.
