Minny sill sucks

[Pepperman]

What?!?

It makes no sense... but... While he didn't say this, I think he was implying that he didn't think Oregon State would go for the win if Minnesota was only up 7.

Again, it makes no sense at all. The BTN crew said something like "that didn't make sense when he went for 2, and his explanation still doesn't make sense"

 

[IAROY]

When I heard his explanation for the two point conversion..

 

[Dauminator]

They'll still find a way to play out of the skin against us. Squirrely things happen up in Gooferland.

 

[soybean]

The dark horse got darker last night.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

While I don't like the Gophers ... it seems like many on this board simply WANT the Gophers to be bad. Let them do it on their own. Here are some of my impressions of the game:

- The Gopher front 7 are strong against the run. Their DL is pretty darn solid ... likely upper-tier Big 10 caliber.

- The Gophers were playing hard, but also quite sloppily. I'd attribute that some to rust and some to youth/inexperience. The Gophers had a lot of OL penalties ... but that is to be expected due to all the new pieces that they have there (many being JUCOs).

- Oregon State has a superior coach and still couldn't take advantage.

- The Gophers top running back wasn't playing (Brooks is better than the guy who was playing) and yet their running game was still decent. Given all the new pieces that they have on the OL ... their success running the ball is a very good sign for their O.

- I don't know what to make of their passing O. It seems like guys are still getting down how to consistently execute within the passing framework. It mainly seemed as though the QB and WRs weren't necessarily on the same page. Usually when you see something like that, the WR is reading things differently than the QB and they run their routes at a different depth than what the QB expects.

- The Gopher D is obviously susceptible to the pass. The secondary plays with great speed and effort, however they were frequently getting caught out of position. OSU missed on several easy opportunities.

- Oregon State looks like they're a little short on high-quality skill players. Their two top weapons on O were Nall (a more versatile version of Weisman) and Collins (their QB from last year who converted to WR).

- Given that the Gophers had 3 players ejected from the game on D and Oregon State still couldn't capitalize ... that tells me that they have decent depth among their LBs.

- The Gophers have some pretty decent young players on their roster - particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

In Summary: It's always better to look sloppy in a victory, just as long as you play with great effort, than to look clean in defeat. In contrast to what some Hawk fans are saying, I see the game as something that the Gophers can build off of. I think that the Gopher D will only improve from here on out.

On the other hand, it may not be quite such a quick fix for the Gophers in the passing game. It takes reps, experience, and understanding for QBs and WRs to eventually get on the same page. I'd keep a continued eye on the Gopher passing game through the rest of the season in order to see what gains they make in that area. Improvements in the passing game will dictate whether they can become a legit contender for the Big 10 west.

 

[Pepperman]

I would agree with Ghost above. This Minnesota team will be just fine. I thought RB Rodney Smith (?) looked good. I didn't know he was the backup as I was flipping back and forth from Tennessee and didn't see the first half.

 

[Kinnick4Ever]

Ghost nailed it. Gophers will be a tough out, especially in Minneapolis.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I certainly don't mind going for 2 at the end. Your defense has played pretty well all game, there isn't a lot of time left, and if you convert, you win. If you lose, you're up 7. Do you really think Oregon State is going for the win even if they score a touchdown? If they do, then you make a stop there and you still win. Why is everyone so up in arms about going for 2? If they kick the XP, they are up 8, which is playing to NOT LOSE. What did people complain about KF doing for all these years?

 

[Anticallihan]

The superior coach for OSU declined a penalty that would have put the gophers out of FG range at the half.

It is funny how people support advanced analytics in baseball -- but when a coach uses it in football he gets roasted. And the gophers didn't lose because of the decision to go for 2. He did it at Illinois last year and got it. It was ball game.

Claeys also said he will always take the ball to start because the analytics says you get more possessions by being more likely to get the ball before the end of the half -- and guess what. That happened and gophers scored.

A win is a win -- new coordinator and two best offensive players were out. Gophers have two games against non BCS teams and a bye before Iowa. Plenty of time to fix mistakes.

Gophers lost 3 LBs in this game. Also three huge targeting penalties. And a safety and still won.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

It's Week 1. See UNI vs. Iowa 2009. Stanford vs. Northwestern 2015. Oh, and App St. vs. Tennessee last night.

 

[td77]

I certainly don't mind going for 2 at the end. Your defense has played pretty well all game, there isn't a lot of time left, and if you convert, you win. If you lose, you're up 7. Do you really think Oregon State is going for the win even if they score a touchdown? If they do, then you make a stop there and you still win. Why is everyone so up in arms about going for 2? If they kick the XP, they are up 8, which is playing to NOT LOSE. What did people complain about KF doing for all these years?

Fair point, however, the best odds to win in all scenarios is to not have to go for 2. The statement made here is taking a chance to put the game away rather then making the other team play against the longest of odds. Of course this is also not including what I'd see as a psychological disadvantage of being down 8 vs 7 with 90 secs to play. 99 out of 100 coaches minds would kick the PAT.

 

[Anticallihan]

Fair point, however, the best odds to win in all scenarios is to not have to go for 2. The statement made here is taking a chance to put the game away rather then making the other team play against the longest of odds. Of course this is also not including what I'd see as a psychological disadvantage of being down 8 vs 7 with 90 secs to play. 99 out of 100 coaches minds would kick the PAT.

Ok. Post the odds. If you don't think claeys had those -- think again.

 

[Dauminator]

It could be worse . . .

http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400869421

 

[td77]

Ok. Post the odds. If you don't think claeys had those -- think again.

Cleays had better odds of making the 2 vs not? Um, not statistically and certainly not based on the poor offense I witnessed last night.

 

[terrehawk]

Tracy Claeys has to be one of the most uninspiring coaches in any level of NCAA.

I literally nodded off during his pregame speech.

Granted, Ferentz is no motivational speaker in any way but that was horrible. I imagine Paul Christ is not far behind.

 

[DodgerHawki]

The Gophs are the definition of "one dimensional". The variance is Leidner's ability to scramble. He's big and strong, but it's a dangerous recipe to get your qb injured.

They appear to be pretty young, so I would expect the younger guys to wear down by mid season. The HC may have just made some inexperienced poor decisions but their were a lot of head scratchers too.

USA Today predicted that Minny will be Iowa's first loss. Based on what we saw Thursday nite... no way in hell the Gophs beat Iowa.

Dangerous to make too many assumptions about one game. There were games last year where Leidner couldn't complete a pass to save his life (Northwestern), but then turned around and played like Peyton Manning against Iowa and Ohio State. Gophers have a new offensive coordinator and some freshmen receivers who were in their first game.

Gophers had 3 guys ejected for targeting, fumbled a punt at their own 20 and made lots of mistakes. They still managed to win. Oregon State is not good. Might not know a whole lot about the Gophers until they go to Penn State on 10/1.

 

[Anticallihan]

Cleays had better odds of making the 2 vs not? Um, not statistically and certainly not based on the poor offense I witnessed last night.

There are more end game scenarios each with a chance of losing.

Up 7
Up 7 tie to OT
Up 8
Up 8 tie to OT
Up 9

The goal is to win -- and he won.

 

[td77]

Great logic there.

 

[TJHawkeye]

I really want the Goofers to be bad. It helps our recruiting up there.

 

[Birky]

Ok. Post the odds. If you don't think claeys had those -- think again.

The conversion rate on going for 2 is 42 percent. Kicking the extra point gives the opponent a 42% chance to tie the game if they score a touchdown in that situation. He also had a 42% chance for Minnesota to convert their try. The decision was below 50% to the negative on both ends for his team. My guess is, considering both teams offenses, it is even worse than the averages.

Considering the dumpster fire that was the end of the Minnesota v. Michigan game last year, and his explanation of that colossal screw up leads me to believe he has the mental capacity of a bonobo. I don't think we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[MitchL]

Dangerous to make too many assumptions about one game. There were games last year where Leidner couldn't complete a pass to save his life (Northwestern), but then turned around and played like Peyton Manning against Iowa and Ohio State. Gophers have a new offensive coordinator and some freshmen receivers who were in their first game.

Gophers had 3 guys ejected for targeting, fumbled a punt at their own 20 and made lots of mistakes. They still managed to win. Oregon State is not good. Might not know a whole lot about the Gophers until they go to Penn State on 10/1.

Totally agree, especially the part about OSU. They are horrible and would be surprised if they win any Pac10/12 games. Minny's problem will be the HC. I think he's in over his head. The program will regret going cheap to find Kill's replacement. The lack of discipline on defense should be concerning.

This Gopher team will have a very hard time winning on the road in the B1G.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

The conversion rate on going for 2 is 42 percent. Kicking the extra point gives the opponent a 42% chance to tie the game if they score a touchdown in that situation. He also had a 42% chance for Minnesota to convert their try. The decision was below 50% to the negative on both ends for his team. My guess is, considering both teams offenses, it is even worse than the averages.

Considering the dumpster fire that was the end of the Minnesota v. Michigan game last year, and his explanation of that colossal screw up leads me to believe he has the mental capacity of a bonobo. I don't think we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

So 42% of the time, can we just accept a win? This is obviously an assumption that OSU cannot score twice in 90 seconds, which obviously is not 100% guaranteed, but should be considered negligible in my opinion. I would contest the 42% conversion figure, as I watched the game an Minny was running roughshod over OSU in the 4th quarter. I'm extremely surprised they didn't give the ball to the RB asking him to get a few yards.

58% of the time, you are giving them the ball with 90 seconds needing to score a touchdown. Of that, I'll be generous and say they can score a touchdown 15% of the time, so we'll round (up to be clear) and call that a 9% chance to go to OT, which is then a 50/50 proposition (it is not when factoring the slight bump for homefield advantage and relative team strength).

People are complaining about something that I'm estimating to give them a 95% chance to win, while also giving them practice in a situation that is CRITICAL in close games and hard to practice with the same intensity as encountering it in a game.

Even if we assume they make the XP (not a given #CollegeKickers), there is a 6.3% chance they go to OT using the above 15% TD rate, which equates a 96.85% chance of winning. This also assumes that only Oregon State will have the ball with time, and Minny would not get the ball back with some time on the clock. It's less than a 2% difference and he took an aggressive stance in a situation that comes up rarely. People are blowing the decision out of proportion.

 

[ANYCHawk]

The dark horse got darker last night.

 

[Birky]

So 42% of the time, can we just accept a win? This is obviously an assumption that OSU cannot score twice in 90 seconds, which obviously is not 100% guaranteed, but should be considered negligible in my opinion. I would contest the 42% conversion figure, as I watched the game an Minny was running roughshod over OSU in the 4th quarter. I'm extremely surprised they didn't give the ball to the RB asking him to get a few yards.

58% of the time, you are giving them the ball with 90 seconds needing to score a touchdown. Of that, I'll be generous and say they can score a touchdown 15% of the time, so we'll round (up to be clear) and call that a 9% chance to go to OT, which is then a 50/50 proposition (it is not when factoring the slight bump for homefield advantage and relative team strength).

People are complaining about something that I'm estimating to give them a 95% chance to win, while also giving them practice in a situation that is CRITICAL in close games and hard to practice with the same intensity as encountering it in a game.

Even if we assume they make the XP (not a given #CollegeKickers), there is a 6.3% chance they go to OT using the above 15% TD rate, which equates a 96.85% chance of winning. This also assumes that only Oregon State will have the ball with time, and Minny would not get the ball back with some time on the clock. It's less than a 2% difference and he took an aggressive stance in a situation that comes up rarely. People are blowing the decision out of proportion.

He wanted odds. Statistically it was a poor decision. Considering some of his past decisions, I think he is just dumb.

 

[Pepperman]

Even if we assume they make the XP (not a given #CollegeKickers), there is a 6.3% chance they go to OT using the above 15% TD rate, which equates a 96.85% chance of winning. This also assumes that only Oregon State will have the ball with time, and Minny would not get the ball back with some time on the clock. It's less than a 2% difference and he took an aggressive stance in a situation that comes up rarely. People are blowing the decision out of proportion.

I think I'm following, but you're saying OT would be a 50-50 deal here instead of giving Minnesota something like a 55-60% chance? It really won't change your mathematical outcome much... but I still think his decision to go for 2 was idiotic in this exact circumstance.

The "analytics" might dictate that he go for 2 in the first half, or even possibly in the 3rd quarter or early 4th quarter... but with 90 seconds left up 7, you kick the EP every time.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

The change in expectation would be small giving Minny an extra edge for 1) being the better team and 2) being at home, however, we're dealing with a less than 2% difference to begin with, so those small adjustments close the gap even further. You're also discounting future gains from having experienced a "pressure situation" early in the year.

I'm not saying his choice was "correct". I'm saying, I don't mind it, and I don't understand the uproar of making a conscious decision to be aggressive and only change your expectation slightly.

 

[toddhawkwi]

I agree with Dauminator. If you've been following the Gophers at all, they may look horrible all year. But there is one game that they are absolutely obsessed with... anyone want to guess? I expect them to play the game of their lives that day.
Todd Wenndt

 

[amahawk]

What?!?

And lose?

 

[WisestIowan]

Golden Corral Buffet Challenge: Tracy Claeys vs. Bret Bielema

who wins?

I think it comes down to overtime where Claeys makes a head fake at the dessert table and pivots to fill a plastic bucket at the ice cream dispenser.

Golden Corral. Golden Corral wins.

 

[Madman_1]

Golden Corral. Golden Corral wins.

Not if it's an all-you-can-eat buffett...

And the prize should be the Mangino Traveling Trophy, that is if Mangino didn't already eat it.

 

[Birky]

Not if it's an all-you-can-eat buffett...

And the prize should be the Mangino Traveling Trophy, that is if Mangino didn't already eat it.

Solid point. That is probably a Golden Corral nightmare.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The superior coach for OSU declined a penalty that would have put the gophers out of FG range at the half.

It is funny how people support advanced analytics in baseball -- but when a coach uses it in football he gets roasted. And the gophers didn't lose because of the decision to go for 2. He did it at Illinois last year and got it. It was ball game.

I contend that Gary Andersen is the better coach because of the precedents that he's set at his past coaching gigs. He turned around the dumpster fire of a program that was Utah State. He made them a power who could play on par with their in-state power programs. That is impressive!

Furthermore, he took a Wisconsin program that was built personnel-wise FAR differently than the sort of guys who have fit in his prior, preferred schemes ... and the Badgers still were successful. He was able to adapt brilliantly - all the while trying to acquire the personnel that better fit his vision for the program.

At this point, Andersen has a 6 or 7 year "head start" on Claeys. Claeys may yet prove to be as good as Andersen ... however, he's not "there" yet.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Totally agree, especially the part about OSU. They are horrible and would be surprised if they win any Pac10/12 games. Minny's problem will be the HC. I think he's in over his head. The program will regret going cheap to find Kill's replacement. The lack of discipline on defense should be concerning.

This Gopher team will have a very hard time winning on the road in the B1G.

Yeah I don't know quite what to make of Claeys yet. Time will tell (duh). I was impressed at the overall level of athleticism, especially on defense. Gophers have big, fast guys. Discipline was lacking. They are right there in the mix in the West in terms of talent. But they have just never done what Iowa and Wisconsin have done, which I'm sure bothers them to no end. If it's not this year, it probably not happening for Claeys.

 

[WORTHYWISH]

I'm telling ya. Rodent U Ice Cream Coach sucks.

 

[MitchL]

I'm telling ya. Rodent U Ice Cream Coach sucks.

Based on what we saw last year when he was filling in for Kill vs Michigan and the undisciplined defense last nite... I'm not real sure Claeys is a long term fix at Gopherland. The real test check will be if they don't contend this year with a senior qb, does he lose some assts or replace them as "fall" guys.

 

[minnebc1]

I detest the Rats as much as anyone, trust me. They will get better over the year. I actually thought their young guys looked good. Poock being out made a difference in their defense. I was impressed with their speed on defense. Their OL still is an issue though. When Iowa plays them they will now have TWO speedy backs to deal with.

 

[td77]

TWO speedy backs to deal with.

Toks?

 

[Kinnick 4 Prez]

I'm telling ya. Rodent U Ice Cream Coach sucks.

That wasn't Claeys last year eating the ice cream. Goofs have multiple obese people on their sideline.

 

[Buffalo43]

While I don't like the Gophers ... it seems like many on this board simply WANT the Gophers to be bad. Let them do it on their own. Here are some of my impressions of the game:

- The Gopher front 7 are strong against the run. Their DL is pretty darn solid ... likely upper-tier Big 10 caliber.

- The Gophers were playing hard, but also quite sloppily. I'd attribute that some to rust and some to youth/inexperience. The Gophers had a lot of OL penalties ... but that is to be expected due to all the new pieces that they have there (many being JUCOs).

- Oregon State has a superior coach and still couldn't take advantage.

- The Gophers top running back wasn't playing (Brooks is better than the guy who was playing) and yet their running game was still decent. Given all the new pieces that they have on the OL ... their success running the ball is a very good sign for their O.

- I don't know what to make of their passing O. It seems like guys are still getting down how to consistently execute within the passing framework. It mainly seemed as though the QB and WRs weren't necessarily on the same page. Usually when you see something like that, the WR is reading things differently than the QB and they run their routes at a different depth than what the QB expects.

- The Gopher D is obviously susceptible to the pass. The secondary plays with great speed and effort, however they were frequently getting caught out of position. OSU missed on several easy opportunities.

- Oregon State looks like they're a little short on high-quality skill players. Their two top weapons on O were Nall (a more versatile version of Weisman) and Collins (their QB from last year who converted to WR).

- Given that the Gophers had 3 players ejected from the game on D and Oregon State still couldn't capitalize ... that tells me that they have decent depth among their LBs.

- The Gophers have some pretty decent young players on their roster - particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

In Summary: It's always better to look sloppy in a victory, just as long as you play with great effort, than to look clean in defeat. In contrast to what some Hawk fans are saying, I see the game as something that the Gophers can build off of. I think that the Gopher D will only improve from here on out.

On the other hand, it may not be quite such a quick fix for the Gophers in the passing game. It takes reps, experience, and understanding for QBs and WRs to eventually get on the same page. I'd keep a continued eye on the Gopher passing game through the rest of the season in order to see what gains they make in that area. Improvements in the passing game will dictate whether they can become a legit contender for the Big 10 west.

Agreed we had a few sloppy wins last year imo

 

[STPGopherfan]

While I don't like the Gophers ... it seems like many on this board simply WANT the Gophers to be bad. Let them do it on their own. Here are some of my impressions of the game:

- The Gopher front 7 are strong against the run. Their DL is pretty darn solid ... likely upper-tier Big 10 caliber.

- The Gophers were playing hard, but also quite sloppily. I'd attribute that some to rust and some to youth/inexperience. The Gophers had a lot of OL penalties ... but that is to be expected due to all the new pieces that they have there (many being JUCOs).

- Oregon State has a superior coach and still couldn't take advantage.

- The Gophers top running back wasn't playing (Brooks is better than the guy who was playing) and yet their running game was still decent. Given all the new pieces that they have on the OL ... their success running the ball is a very good sign for their O.

- I don't know what to make of their passing O. It seems like guys are still getting down how to consistently execute within the passing framework. It mainly seemed as though the QB and WRs weren't necessarily on the same page. Usually when you see something like that, the WR is reading things differently than the QB and they run their routes at a different depth than what the QB expects.

- The Gopher D is obviously susceptible to the pass. The secondary plays with great speed and effort, however they were frequently getting caught out of position. OSU missed on several easy opportunities.

- Oregon State looks like they're a little short on high-quality skill players. Their two top weapons on O were Nall (a more versatile version of Weisman) and Collins (their QB from last year who converted to WR).

- Given that the Gophers had 3 players ejected from the game on D and Oregon State still couldn't capitalize ... that tells me that they have decent depth among their LBs.

- The Gophers have some pretty decent young players on their roster - particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

In Summary: It's always better to look sloppy in a victory, just as long as you play with great effort, than to look clean in defeat. In contrast to what some Hawk fans are saying, I see the game as something that the Gophers can build off of. I think that the Gopher D will only improve from here on out.

On the other hand, it may not be quite such a quick fix for the Gophers in the passing game. It takes reps, experience, and understanding for QBs and WRs to eventually get on the same page. I'd keep a continued eye on the Gopher passing game through the rest of the season in order to see what gains they make in that area. Improvements in the passing game will dictate whether they can become a legit contender for the Big 10 west.

Pretty much what you said. Very sloppy game, but still got the win. I am guessing Northwestern would rather be in our shoes. New OL coach and OC/ QB coach, starting RB and TE out(leading returning receiver) only added to the sloppy play. Long way to becoming a decent team, but much of what happened on Thursday night is fixable.