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My Jan 19 Projections: MD 15-3, Iowa 14-4, Purdue 13-5, IU 11-7

OnceAhawk

HB MVP
Jan 29, 2015
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Purdue may have the toughest remaining schedule.

In red, I have highlighted the top 4 teams on the top 4's remaining schedule. NOTE: MD and IU still have to go to Mich State and Purdue hosts Mich State.

Who has the easiest remaining schedule?

Project away. It will be interesting if anyone gets it right!

IOWA (5-0)

@ Rutgers
vs Purdue
@ MD

vs N'w
vs PSU
@ILL
@IU
MN
@PSU
WI
@OSU
IU
@MICH

Indiana (5-0)

ILL
N'w
@WI
MN
@MICH
@PSU
IOWA
@Mich St
NEB
Purdue
@ILL
@IOWA
MD


Maryland (5-1)

N'w
@Mich St
iowa
@OSU
@Neb
Purdue
WI
@MN
MICH
@purdue
ILL
@IU


Purdue (4-2)


OSU
@Iowa
@MN
NEB
@MD
Mich State
@MICH
N'w
@IU
MD
@Neb
WI
 
My predictions:



Maryland (15-3)

W N'w
L @Mich St
W iowa
W @OSU
W @Neb
W Purdue
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers
W vs Purdue
L @ MD

W vs N'w
W vs PSU
L @ILL
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU
L @Iowa
W @MN
W NEB
L @MD
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL
W N'w
L @WI
W MN
L @MICH
W @PSU
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
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Man if we get to that first IU game at 5-1, we can really be looking at a serious seed given our back half.
 
Man if we get to that first IU game at 5-1, we can really be looking at a serious seed given our back half.

i hope i am wrong and that we go to IU and win. Then that might just get us a share of the B1G title. Its really hard to project things; if Iowa can win at Mich State, they can win anywhere but MD can be really really good when they are "on." Maryland lucks out playing Iowa just once,and at home.

You've got to figure Iowa will lose 3 or 4 games...right? But who the heck knows. Its all projections at this moment.

As you can see, I predict IU to fall and fall HARD. :)

Buckle up.
 
OK, I'll be the first (and maybe the only), the Hawks go 16-2 with losses @MD and @UM. That's good enough to win the B1G outright. 2nd place to MD, MSU in 3rd, PU in 4th and IU in 5th.
 
OK, I'll be the first (and maybe the only), the Hawks go 16-2 with losses @MD and @UM. That's good enough to win the B1G outright. 2nd place to MD, MSU in 3rd, PU in 4th and IU in 5th.

Love it. Hope you are right.
 
*note that I make this prediction thinking that nothing (catastrophic, ie injuries, etc) happens to either team as they are now, & the way certain teams are playing will keep going (ie, not 'peaking' at the moment), between now and the end of the regular conference season [save maybe for Michigan getting Levert back]*

1 IOWA (15-3* [16-2*]) - 2016 B1G Champions
Ls = @ MD, @ IU and @ UM* (if Levert is back and playing well)

INDIANA (14-4) [would own tiebreaker vs MD by means of H2H win]
Ls = @ WI, @ UM, @ MSU & @ IA

MARYLAND (14-4)
Ls = @ MSU, @ PU & @ IU

PURDUE (12-6)
Ls = @ IA, @ MD, @ UM & @ IU
 
OK, I'll be the first (and maybe the only), the Hawks go 16-2 with losses @MD and @UM. That's good enough to win the B1G outright. 2nd place to MD, MSU in 3rd, PU in 4th and IU in 5th.

I could see this - in fact, I want that to happen.

I was being 'conservative' in my picks, but wanted to give the Hawks the win @ IU too. And who knows, if Levert is still out then and Michigan has an 'off' shooting day @ home to end the season, I could see the Hawks going 17-1 - and not feeling the least bit over-exaggeratedly optimistic about it.
 
I think we are more likely to lose @PSU than at Illinois. PSU always plays us tough. and it is a LONG road trip. Rutgers is farther, but ... goodness they looked like a really bad team against Purdue. I could not even watch after awhile. I see a loss at Michigan to end the regular season, just because they may NEED IT more than we do... could be a play-in game for their NCAA tournament resume'. Who knows. If we just take care of business at home and only lose to IU, MU and MD on the road, we probably win the B1G. Can't afford to let a lower tier team beat us like Illinois, NW, Minny, etc...
 
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Well, i predicted IU to beat ILL at home BUT....wow, what a rout

maybe we can go to Champaign and win BUT that place is a house of horrors historically for Iowa

It will be tough for Iowa to win at IU, esp if IU hits NINETEEN 3 pointers....wowza.
 
Three games coming up that I believe are critical. IU at Wisky, MD at MSU, and Purdue at Iowa. If those go the way I hope (Wisky, MSU and the Hawks winners), the Mary Land game would give Iowa a shot at getting in the driver's seat. Obviously, there is a lot of BB to play, and I still don't see anyone going better than 15-3.
 
I think the Hawks can and will win out but will have 3 or 4 nail biters along the way that could change this. Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland. Yes I think Iowa handles IU, here and there by at least 10. Unbelievable season fir the record books. The Rutgers game plays huge dividends by getting bench guys really good minutes to build on.
 
If my life depended on it I'd pick Hawks finish tied for 2nd with 13-5, with Sparty and we meet them again in the BTT semifinals. Maryland wins with 15-3 record, Purdue is alone in 5th with a 12-6 and Indiana staggers to 11-7. A home win against Iowa gets them into the tournament. To put it in perspective, we haven't won 13 B!G games since 1987, 29 seasons.

Hawks are good, big, talented and experienced...with a chip on their shoulder. I can foresee a realistic shot at the BTT finals and a sweet 16 berth, especially if we strike gold and play in DSM.
 
Still like 53 days left to go until Selection Sunday, but as of right now, the Hawks are seriously trending towards a 2/3 seed placement in Des Moines for rounds 1 & 2 (play-in games are NOT a 'round'!) and then playing the second weekend in Chicago.
 
I think we are more likely to lose @PSU than at Illinois. PSU always plays us tough. and it is a LONG road trip. Rutgers is farther, but ... goodness they looked like a really bad team against Purdue. I could not even watch after awhile. I see a loss at Michigan to end the regular season, just because they may NEED IT more than we do... could be a play-in game for their NCAA tournament resume'. Who knows. If we just take care of business at home and only lose to IU, MU and MD on the road, we probably win the B1G. Can't afford to let a lower tier team beat us like Illinois, NW, Minny, etc...

I agree; if we take care of our 6 home games, that gets us to 11 wins right there.

The away games are what gets tricky.

@ Rutgers should be a win.
@ILL should be a win. ....historically tough road game
@PSU should be a win. dead environment; hard to get up for it
@OSU should be a win ... historically tough road game

That puts us at 15 wins. Can you believe we are talking 15 wins, at minimum, right now? We just have to be realistic because crazy stuff can happen, especially if a team goes crazy at the 3 point line and Iowa suddenly can't hit the broad side of a barn. That's why I have us losing one of the above 4 games (ILL).

@ MD, @IU, and @MICH could be very tricky games; who knows what IU team shows up, for example. If tonight's team shows up, we will be in trouble. NINETEEN 3's; are you kidding me??? I am projecting us to lose these 3 games.

14-4. I hope we do better.
 
It's fun projecting. I'm just enjoying reading some very positive outlooks.

Just keep in mind that already:

Maryland lost to Michigan
Michigan State lost to Wisconsin
Purdue lost to Illinois

And the season is only 1/3rd over.
 
I don't think it is far fetched to say that by the time we play Michigan they could be 13-4 in conference. Look at their schedule and where they play the tougher teams. They could go on a bit of a roll.
 
I am being conservative with my 14-4 prediction. On the road, a lot can happen. The opponent gets hot from 3, and Iowa goes cold, for example. IU hit 19 three's last night at home; that's hard to overcome. Furthermore, historically, Champaign/Urbana is a tough place to play for Iowa..

I hope I am wrong. I hope we go better than 14-4. But note: 14-4 has been our BEST EVER record in the B1G and its been 29 years since we accomplished that. It's not easy to do.

A historical perspective on the best Iowa B1G records:

14-4
in 1986-87
13-5 in 1978-79 and 1980-81
 
I am being conservative with my 14-4 prediction. On the road, a lot can happen. The opponent gets hot from 3, and Iowa goes cold, for example. IU hit 19 three's last night at home; that's hard to overcome. Furthermore, historically, Champaign/Urbana is a tough place to play for Iowa..

I hope I am wrong. I hope we go better than 14-4. But note: 14-4 has been our BEST EVER record in the B1G and its been 29 years since we accomplished that. It's not easy to do.

A historical perspective on the best Iowa B1G records:

14-4
in 1986-87
13-5 in 1978-79 and 1980-81
please do not forget their 13-1 big ten record in 1955-1956. When our fabulous five Logan, Cain, Seaberg, schoof and scherman played and went to the national finals
 
Big weekend!

We need MD to lose at MSU and Iowa needs to take care of home court Sunday. Having a 2 game lead in the loss column before our trip to Maryland would be HUGE.



Maryland (15-3)

W N'w
L @Mich St
W iowa
W @OSU
W @Neb
W Purdue
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers
W vs Purdue
L @ MD

W vs N'w
W vs PSU
L @ILL
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU
L @Iowa
W @MN
W NEB
L @MD
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL
W N'w
L @WI
W MN
L @MICH
W @PSU
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
KenPom now projects iowa to win the Big Ten by two games. That projection, of course, is rooted in them never losing at home, which means Sunday's game against No. 22 Purdue is crucial to Iowa's longterm plans
 
HawkCentral.com's take:

Let’s break down the four leading Big Ten championship contenders, in order of the standings:


Indiana (17-3, 7-0)
So far: The Hoosiers have enjoyed the easiest conference schedule to date in the Big Ten. Their only road games have been at Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota. But they’re taking advantage, and they’ve been impressive at times, including in Saturday's 89-57 home rout of a solid Northwestern team. Senior point guard Yogi Ferrell has been a candidate for the conference player of the year, averaging 17.1 points and 6.1 assists.

What’s left: Wisconsin (road), Minnesota (home), Michigan (road), Penn State (road), Iowa (home), Michigan State (road), Nebraska (home), Purdue (home), Illinois (road), Iowa (road), Maryland (home).

Analysis: Indiana is off to its best Big Ten start since Bob Knight's 1992-93 team, so it's time to take notice, no matter the opponents. The Hoosiers can flat-out score, as evidenced by their No. 3 national ranking in 3-point percentage and No. 5 from 2-point range. Don't be surprised if they complete the first half of the league schedule 9-0, but the back nine will reveal Indiana's true grit.

Iowa (15-3, 6-0)
So far: Iowa has been maybe the nation’s most impressive team in the last month, parlaying road wins at Michigan State and Purdue into the school’s best Big Ten start in 29 years. Equally impressive is that five of those wins have come by double digits.

What’s left: Purdue (home), Maryland (road), Northwestern (home), Penn State (home), Illinois (road), Indiana (road), Minnesota (home), Penn State (road), Wisconsin (home), Ohio State (road), Indiana (home), Michigan (road).

Analysis: The Hawkeyes have one of the toughest Big Ten schedules, but even so, if they can protect Carver-Hawkeye Arena — where they have won 12 in a row since February — they could be on track to break the school record for Big Ten regular-season wins (14, first set in 1970 and tied in 1987). To do so, Iowa will need to win some one- or two-possession games down the stretch. At minimum, the Hawkeyes are in good position (barring a 2014-style class) to get a double-bye (top-four seed) at the Big Ten Tournament in March.

Maryland (17-3, 6-2)
So far: The Terrapins were the prohibitive preseason Big Ten favorites, and they have mostly acted the part. Their only losses before Saturday night’s 74-65 setback in East Lansing were to North Carolina (by eight) and Michigan (by three). For all the hype given to playmakers such as Melo Trimble, Maryland plays the Big Ten’s third-best defense, too, and leads the conference in free-throw percentage. That’s a good combination for a clutch team.

What’s left: Iowa (home), Ohio State (road), Nebraska (road), Purdue (home), Wisconsin (home), Minnesota (road), Michigan (home), Purdue (road), Illinois (home), Indiana (road).

Analysis: Maryland has a good chance of controlling its own fate to the end, with its final two road games against current title contenders. The Terrapins also benefit by not traveling to Iowa City, where they were slayed by 16 points a year ago. Regardless of Big Ten finish, this is a prolific team that should contend in both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.

Purdue (17-3, 5-2)
So far: Two puzzling second halves have deterred Purdue from possibly being a top-five team. The Boilermakers blew a 17-point halftime lead at home to Iowa, and they curiously lost by 14 at Illinois — allowing a combined 97 second-half points in those games. That’s out-of-character for one of the country’s top defensive teams.

What’s left: Iowa (road), Minnesota (road), Nebraska (home), Maryland (road), Michigan State (home), Michigan (road), Northwestern (home), Indiana (road), Maryland (home), Nebraska (road), Wisconsin (home).

Analysis: Purdue’s biggest weakness is the lack of a proven point guard, which might point to its three losses. That void will be tested in a schedule with the toughest road games ahead. But the stats – No. 3 in the league in offense, No. 1 in defense – indicate Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are built for a championship run. Getting swept by Iowa would really hurt their chances.

http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...two-games-five-days-purdue-maryland/79224748/
 
Does anyone think this is more than a 4 team race? Maybe Michigan can climb back into it? Yikes, looking at their schedule, they have a good chance at 15-3. They play MN twice!

15-3 would be a miracle for Michigan. Current KenPom prediction is 12-6. Caris LeVert has missed 6 straight games. He supposedly will be back soon. If he can come back strong and play like the All American candidate he was for the rest of the season, you could maybe see Michigan getting to 14-4 though I kinda think 13-5 is the best realistic record they could attain. Beilein has been a killer in close games down the stretch the last few years, but it will take winning more than their fair share of them to have any kind of shot at winning their 3rd conference title in the last 5 years.

Iowa is obviously the heavy favorite right now. Indiana has a shiny record against bad competition which will soon come to an end. MSU probably too far back with 4 losses already. Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan are probably the only others with a chance.

If I was handicapping the race right now:

Iowa 3/2
Maryland 4/1
Indiana 10/1
Purdue 10/1
Michigan 10/1


If Iowa beats Maryland, it's probably all over but the shouting and they may run away with it like Michigan did 2 years ago or MSU in 2009.
 
15-3 would be a miracle for Michigan. Current KenPom prediction is 12-6. Caris LeVert has missed 6 straight games. He supposedly will be back soon. If he can come back strong and play like the All American candidate he was for the rest of the season, you could maybe see Michigan getting to 14-4 though I kinda think 13-5 is the best realistic record they could attain. Beilein has been a killer in close games down the stretch the last few years, but it will take winning more than their fair share of them to have any kind of shot at winning their 3rd conference title in the last 5 years.

Iowa is obviously the heavy favorite right now. Indiana has a shiny record against bad competition which will soon come to an end. MSU probably too far back with 4 losses already. Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan are probably the only others with a chance.

If I was handicapping the race right now:

Iowa 3/2
Maryland 4/1
Indiana 10/1
Purdue 10/1
Michigan 10/1


If Iowa beats Maryland, it's probably all over but the shouting and they may run away with it like Michigan did 2 years ago or MSU in 2009.


From CBS sports:


  • A word to the wise: keep an eye on Michigan. The Wolverines are 15-5 overall with a 5-2 mark in Big Ten play and are about to enter a very favorable part of their schedule. John Beilein's squad hosts Rutgers Wednesday then plays Penn State in Madison Square Garden before returning home to play back-to-back games against Indiana and Michigan State. The next game after that is at Minnesota. This team has some real opportunities to make some national noise over the next few weeks.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...naround-led-by-improved-play-of-jarrod-uthoff
 
Everyone has held serve so far as far as my predictions go; BIG WIN by Wisconsin tonight over IU!

Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa
W @OSU
W @Neb
W Purdue
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD

W vs N'w
W vs PSU
L @ILL
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN
W NEB
L @MD
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.............CORRECT
W N'w............CORRECT
L @WI............CORRECT
W MN
L @MICH
W @PSU
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
Last edited:
Iowa 17-1
Michigan15-3
Maryland 15-3
Purdue14-4
MSU 12-6
OSU 11-7
Wisconsin 8-10
Northwestern 8-10
PSU 7-11
Nebraska 6-12
Illinois 3-15
Rutgers 1-17
MINNESOTA 0-18
 
Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa
W @OSU
W @Neb
W Purdue
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD

W vs N'w
W vs PSU
L @ILL
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN......................CORRECT
W NEB
L @MD
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.............CORRECT
W N'w............CORRECT
L @WI............CORRECT
W MN
L @MICH
W @PSU
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
Iowa- 15-3
Maryland- 14-4
IU- 12-6
Purdue- 12-6
Michigan- 12-6
MSU- 12-6
Wisconsin- 11-7
Ohio State- 9-9
Northwestern- 7-11
PSU- 7-11
Nebraska- 7-11
Illinois- 6-12
Minnesota- 1-17
Rutgers- 1-17
 
Iowa- 15-3
Maryland- 14-4
IU- 12-6
Purdue- 12-6
Michigan- 12-6
MSU- 12-6
Wisconsin- 11-7
Ohio State- 9-9
Northwestern- 7-11
PSU- 7-11
Nebraska- 7-11
Illinois- 6-12
Minnesota- 1-17
Rutgers- 1-17

LOVE IT!!!

If Iowa wins tonight, I will have to revise my predictions and put Iowa at 15-3 and MD at 14-4......man, this is the year where the B1G championship is there for the taking.

I still think there is a game we lose that we are not expected to lose (that's why I threw in the loss at Illinois). We know this unexpected loss will probably happen but where it will happen,who knows,so my guess is at Illinois.
 
Ugggh....I even got Iowa/MD right


Maryland (15-3)
W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU
W @Neb
W Purdue
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)
W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD..................CORRECT
W vs N'w
W vs PSU
L @ILL
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)
W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN......................CORRECT
W NEB
L @MD
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI



Indiana (11-7)
W ILL.............CORRECT
W N'w............CORRECT
L @WI............CORRECT
W MN
L @MICH
W @PSU
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
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Here's a compliment from a visitor. I'm impressed by your analysis of the league - you're optimistic, while being reasonably cautious. You have a terrific team, and I wish you continued success (though preferably not at Maryland's expense).
 
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Here's a compliment from a visitor. I'm impressed by your analysis of the league - you're optimistic, while being reasonably cautious. You have a terrific team, and I wish you continued success (though preferably not at Maryland's expense).

Do you miss the ACC?

Its still weird having MD and Rutgers in the B1G.

Its too bad we don't play twice during the regular B1G season this year!
 
I think Maryland will split w/Purdue and lose to either Indiana, Wisconsin or Michigan. They have a bunch of tough games ahead and I think will lose at least 2 more. I think Iowa splits w/ Indiana and loses @ OSU or Michigan. We have navigated the worst part of our schedule and done it extremely well. Maryland's toughest stretch is ahead of them. I like where we sit.
 
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Do you miss the ACC?

Its still weird having MD and Rutgers in the B1G.

Its too bad we don't play twice during the regular B1G season this year!

Not who you asked but as a MD alum, I'll answer. I miss the old ACC before expansion started. We lost home and homes with all of our main rivals with the last expansion. No one cares about playing teams like Boston College and VT in basketball and Football was even worse. We've always felt slighted by the ACC(all Carolina Conference). With the last expansion each school was given a designated rival school that they would play a home and home with every year. We got Pittsburgh. We had played them less than 10 times ever and it was the final straw with that conference. Sure we miss a lot of the great games and tradition with VA, UNC, DUKE, and NC State but it wasn't like that anymore and we were being lumped in with the old big east schools. The ACC tourny was in Greensboro NC nearly every single year. It's a crappy town and in NC. When we played there, it was always an away game as the NC teams would, mostly, cheer each other. There is a reason NC teams won 90% of the time there.

I am happy to be playing big state schools of the B1G rather than the new comers of the ACC. I feel like the ACC never appreciated the markets we were bringing to the table and were neglected. The ACC doesn't have a network so there was never any after game stuff like on the B1G network. I honestly feel more appreciated in this conference than the old. We bring a lot to the table in terms of revenue and smart fans of other schools understand that. In terms of sports we bring a lot to the table. We have the last NC in basketball, both men and women. On top of that our other non revenue sports are pretty good too. We just need to fix football so we can at least be competitive. If we are going to be outsiders, which we still are, we should at least be making more money.

Oh and we already hated PSU before we got here so we have a natural rival, even if no one else thinks so.

TL;DR The old ACC, yes. The current ACC, no, not really.
 
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