I thought they'd be more optimistic than that (the thrashing at the hands of Incarnate Word probably is probably why). The OP is the only one that seems to think the Wolf Pack have a shot at pulling it off, the rest of them would be satisfied if Nevada just covers the (utterly ridiculous) 20+ point spread.
I don't think they quite grasp how bad our offense is. We couldn't move the ball a lick against a South Dakota State team that isn't even anything special by FCS standards (NDSU will school the Jacks this year, I guarantee it) and we couldn't move the ball against an average FBS school in Iowa State. Iowa getting 250 offensive yards against Nevada would be a small miracle.