I haven't seen Democrat arrogance re: 2024 election at any material level. Fear, anxiety, despair, incredulity, etc. all significantly more prevalent. Trump is very likely to lose the popular election for the third straight election. He absolutely has a path via Electoral College. These are objective truths.
Trump's best hope is the political pendulum is ready to swing back slightly in his favor due to Biden fatigue, and that marginal swing could be juuuust enough to push him over the top in the battleground states.
And if that happens, the pendulum will swing mightily back to the Dems in 2028. And so it goes.