November is going to be a bloodbath

[Aardvark86]

Trump might lose by 10 to 15 million votes in November. These results are fascinating in New Hampshire. Trumps gonna lose the suburbs in record fashion for an R nominee in November.

I won't make any predictions other than that I will guarantee that the popular vote will not determine the winner.

That said, most of the polling at the moment is borderline meaningless. National head-to-heads are always more or less meaningless, and the state primary stuff is really difficult to use when it comes to projecting the general, because of crossover voting dynamics. The potential counter to your outcome thesis is that in head to head nationals, party perception, good job/bad job, and right/wrong direction polls, there are signs that are positive for trump (or at least negative for Biden).

 

[ThorneStockton]

He’s become ing more popular with minorities. But will it off set the amount of white voters the Republicans continue to lose. It’s definitely interesting.

It's impossible to know what a post-Trump Republican party will look like in terms of holding together the MAGA cult but from a glass half full perspective, I think the minority group interest in Trump/Republican party is somewhat refreshing.

I'm not sure it's healthy for society for the GOP to be made up almost exclusively of white people, while the Democrats were the educated whites and the minorities. Perhaps, if the trend continues, race will be a little less of a fork in the road, or divider for the parties.

 

[MitchLL]

Actually, it's the Independents you need to check in on, Cletus.

^^^^^NH proved Indees dislike Turd.

And that's the voting bloc that tips elections.

 

[Titanhawk2]

Trump might lose by 10 to 15 million votes in November. These results are fascinating in New Hampshire. Trumps gonna lose the suburbs in record fashion for an R nominee in November.

So you think he won't match his record high vote total from 2020 or that the dems would have an even higher, new record vote total? Or are you thinking nobody will vote?

 

[Aardvark86]

^^^^^NH proved Indees dislike Turd.

And that's the voting bloc that tips elections.

1. I dont think your latter premise is correct anymore. Sadly, it's now loyalist turnout (which is why we have so much negative messaging these days).
2. Inasmuch as we don't really know who the 'indies' are, or whether NH's 'indies' are generally representative, i don't know how strong any inferences are (ever, really) from NH.

 

[tumorboy]

I won't make any predictions other than that I will guarantee that the popular vote will not determine the winner.

That said, most of the polling at the moment is borderline meaningless. National head-to-heads are always more or less meaningless, and the state primary stuff is really difficult to use when it comes to projecting the general, because of crossover voting dynamics. The potential counter to your outcome thesis is that in head to head nationals, party perception, good job/bad job, and right/wrong direction polls, there are signs that are positive for trump (or at least negative for Biden).

The problem is projecting things that are a normal election indicator and applying it to an election involving Trump is almost meaningless. He’s not a normal candidate that can stay on message or focus on what is important. Every traditional indicator since the 2020 election. Dems should have been clubbed. Instead they either held their own or won.

 

[hexumhawk]

Trump might lose by 10 to 15 million votes in November. These results are fascinating in New Hampshire. Trumps gonna lose the suburbs in record fashion for an R nominee in November.

Trump won by over 10 points in a state with open primary in a liberal state against a liberal opponent.

Trump's problem are the suburban moms that don't like his demeanor. The telling poll last night was NH Dems positively viewing Biden at a clip of 70% with the economy and the border. You can't fix stupid.

 

[lucas80]

Republicans had many chances to dump Trump, the best being after January 6th, they didn’t so they made their choice already.

They had an equally compelling chance after the 2022 elections where Trump cost them a bunch of winnable seats.
It's a cult.

 

[tumorboy]

It's impossible to know what a post-Trump Republican party will look like in terms of holding together the MAGA cult but from a glass half full perspective, I think the minority group interest in Trump/Republican party is somewhat refreshing.

I'm not sure it's healthy for society for the GOP to be made up almost exclusively of white people, while the Democrats were the educated whites and the minorities. Perhaps, if the trend continues, race will be a little less of a fork in the road, or divider for the parties.

Hispanics tend to be more Christian Conservative. So you’d think as they become more Americanized it would be a natural trend towards Republicans. They don’t have the history of Jim Crow and slavery as a voting influence.

 

[tumorboy]

Trump won by over 10 points in a state with open primary in a liberal state against a liberal opponent.

Trump's problem are the suburban moms that don't like his demeanor. The telling poll last night was NH Dems positively viewing Biden at a clip of 70% with the economy and the border. You can't fix stupid.

Trump is more liberal than Haley. You’re eating the wacky tobacco if u can’t see that.

 

[lucas80]

Trump won by over 10 points in a state with open primary in a liberal state against a liberal opponent.

Trump's problem are the suburban moms that don't like his demeanor. The telling poll last night was NH Dems positively viewing Biden at a clip of 70% with the economy and the border. You can't fix stupid.

It isn't just his demeanor, they dislike what he actually does. And, it isn't just suburban moms. There are a lot of rural moms who will be able to swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan who don't like what he has done, and rants about doing if he's elected again.

 

[goldmom]

^^^^^NH proved Indees dislike Turd.

And that's the voting bloc that tips elections.

You are correct. The independents will determine the outcome along with the roughly 20% of us who still register as Republicans and who will not vote for Trump in November.

 

[hexumhawk]

Trump is more liberal than Haley. You’re eating the wa tobacco if u can’t see that.

Tomato tamotoe

They both have liberal tendencies and aren't real conservatives by my account.

 

[hexumhawk]

It isn't just his demeanor, they dislike what he actually does. And, it isn't just suburban moms. There are a lot of rural moms who will be able to swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan who don't like what he has done, and rants about doing if he's elected again.

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

 

[tumorboy]

Tomato tamotoe

They both have liberal tendencies and aren't real conservatives by my account.

Agreed, my problem with calling Trump a conservative is not one ounce of energy was spent on cutting spending. Then alienating traditional allies instead of working with them. Most of his manic energy was spent on himself. Absolute opposite of any conservative governing. It’s as if Bill Clinton was in the White House again.

 

[95Hawk]

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

I miss those days when Trump was downright lying to the American people about Covid, mismanaging the government’s response to it, and grifting all the way through the process.

Better off? Maybe just a smidge.

Also: would love to see you complete the thought about “put all those minorities and…”. That’s a stream of consciousness that I just know is gonna be substantial.

 

[joelbc1]

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

How are “we” not better off hex? Honestly… it is all dependent upon how you look at things. I feel much better now than ; years ago…. And there is a border solution to be had if Republicans want a solution.

 

[McLovin32]

So you think he won't match his record high vote total from 2020 or that the dems would have an even higher, new record vote total? Or are you thinking nobody will vote?

I think those goddamn dems got even better at cheating so they’re gonna rig this election even better.

 

[fivecardstud14]

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

Littering and…littering and…littering and…

 

[JRHawk2003]

In 2028?

Yes. She would not just get it handed to her. No way, especially when you have 2 pretty good candidates in the wings.

 

[Aardvark86]

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

Candidly, you're right w/r/t a lot of issues, which is why it's quite a profound testimony that dislike of him can actually outweigh that, even where the alternative is not exactly compelling.

At some point, even very conservative people ask themselves what's best for the country at its core rather than its surface.

 

[beanerhawk]

I think November is going to be pleasant. I may take a vacation or something. The weather is usually pretty nice still.

 

[joelbc1]

I think November is going to be pleasant. I may take a vacation or something. The weather is usually pretty nice still.

I will vote “absentee” as early as I can....and I will vote for Democrats all the way....all 4 of my ballots.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

She’s polling around 13. So it’s going to take a miracle

Holy crap, are you serious? I honestly have not been paying attention to any of it. So Trump polling at around 80% in South Carolina I assume? That's grim for Haley, I thought she was a popular governor when she served, so what changed?

 

[CoachH]

You can hate Trump all you want but you are lying to yourself if you trying to make an argument that we are better off now under Biden. Hilarious that people are pushing the "dictator" fear mongering unless I missed when he put all those minorities and

Things are tons better now than when Trump was still in power. And the trends look like they should continue for the economy. If Trump doesn't get the stock market crash he is hoping for, what can he run on? "Sure I'm an insecure narcissist dickhead bent on a revenge tour, but at least I'm a total idiot"?

 

[tumorboy]

Holy crap, are you serious? I honestly have not been paying attention to any of it. So Trump polling at around 80% in South Carolina I assume? That's grim for Haley, I thought she was a popular governor when she served, so what changed?

Thought it was around 60. Lots of undecided. It’s been a week since I looked though. 60 to 25 now. If she gets within ten points. Not seeing how Trump claims this as a huge win though. Closed primary and strong conservative state historically.

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

God, I hope BIden sets up machine-gun nests this time....

That might take care of posters better than the ignore button.

 

[MitchLL]

I miss those days when Trump was downright lying to the American people about Covid, mismanaging the government’s response to it, and grifting all the way through the process.

Better off? Maybe just a smidge.

Also: would love to see you complete the thought about “put all those minorities and…”. That’s a stream of consciousness that I just know is gonna be substantial.

Most MAGA are so far down the rabbit hole that they now can't admit they made a mistake.

Turd knows how to manipulate some people.

 

[Joes Place]

Most MAGA are so far down the rabbit hole that they now can't admit they made a mistake.

 

[stanzithemanzi12]

She just lacks charisma, which is not good for politicians

Biden lacks everything.

 

[McLovin32]

Biden lacks everything.

Except votes.

 

[MitchLL]

Biden lacks everything.

And yet he crushed 45 in 2020.

 

[stanzithemanzi12]

And yet he crushed 45 in 2020.

Because of rampant mail-in ballots and COVID. We both know Biden had no chance without COVID. The pendulum is going to swing back in Trump's favor

 

[JRHawk2003]

Because of rampant mail-in ballots and COVID. We both know Biden had no chance without COVID. The pendulum is going to swing back in Trump's favor

Obvious Troll.

Takes one to know one.

 

[McLovin32]

The pendulum is going to swing back in Trump's favor

 

[joelbc1]

Because of rampant mail-in ballots and COVID. We both know Biden had no chance without COVID. The pendulum is going to swing back in Trump's favor

And we both know that Trump had no chance without Hilary....

 

[MitchLL]

Because of rampant mail-in ballots and COVID. We both know Biden had no chance without COVID. The pendulum is going to swing back in Trump's favor
[
/QUOTE]
Mail in ballots might be the reason Turd lost. But that huge mistake by Republicans to not promote mail ins is their own doing.

Would you agree?

 

[RNHawk]

Border is definitely worse than it was, economy has had some issues but is turning around, and the conflict in the Middle East

 

[MitchLL]

Border is definitely worse than it was, economy has had some issues but is turning around, and the conflict in the Middle East

Notice how you intentionally left out abortion rights!

 

[DooBi]

Littering and…littering and…littering and…

I'm freaking out man.