***Official Caitlin/Fever/Kate/Meg Games Mega Thread***
- Thread starter Tenacious E
- Start date
Hmmmm... we keep hearing how she disappears in the 4th Quarter. How can this be?......
I wish one of you smart guys would do a deep dive on the Vegas odds versus public perception. I am in no way exaggerating when I say I am mesmerized by this spread and the narrative being driven by a handful of media outlets..
The closest this thing has ever been odds wise was after AR put up 27 & 18 & somewhere around - 450 to +300 give or take.
It has now ballooned back out to what -1000 to +650. Those are monstrous odds absolutely humongous and yet the media narrative is it’s not only close but AR might be in the lead.
Who actually votes on this by the way, and if Vegas generally mirrors, public perception in an attempt to get somewhat even money, how is this even possible? I mean, they clearly don’t want people betting on Clark a 1000 bet to win 100 what the holy hell, there is only one bet and that is Angel & yet their professional oddsmakers who get paid shit tons of money to handicap give her basically no shot…
Is this not crazy and insane to any of the rest of you?
How can the media even push this narrative and these advanced metrics. I’ve never believed in them and maybe they’re more spot on in other sports but the more I read about them and the more I dig into them they’re absolutely junk, and that’s probably not even fair more than that they’re misleading and skewed to interior players😱
The closest this thing has ever been odds wise was after AR put up 27 & 18 & somewhere around - 450 to +300 give or take.
It has now ballooned back out to what -1000 to +650. Those are monstrous odds absolutely humongous and yet the media narrative is it’s not only close but AR might be in the lead.
Who actually votes on this by the way, and if Vegas generally mirrors, public perception in an attempt to get somewhat even money, how is this even possible? I mean, they clearly don’t want people betting on Clark a 1000 bet to win 100 what the holy hell, there is only one bet and that is Angel & yet their professional oddsmakers who get paid shit tons of money to handicap give her basically no shot…
Is this not crazy and insane to any of the rest of you?
How can the media even push this narrative and these advanced metrics. I’ve never believed in them and maybe they’re more spot on in other sports but the more I read about them and the more I dig into them they’re absolutely junk, and that’s probably not even fair more than that they’re misleading and skewed to interior players😱
Of course. I think people can and do change, but I just can't resist the opportunity to be a smart-ass now and then. I guess I'm more convinced that what she said before the game is how she really feels, and then some PR person told her to dial it back in the post-game press conference. In the past they could say what was on their mind, and no one would pay it one wit's attention. Now, it's under the klieg-lights of Caitlin's fame, and they're learning you have to be diplomatic. I think Ms. Taurasi learned this as well. Not to say they can't change their minds, and that they can embrace a new perspective - but, within 2-3 hours of the first comment? That's quite a transformation. But, maybe like Jake Blues, she saw the light.
Really, NO coach was going to take Clark or ANY rookie and tell their players to play how the rookie wants. We are all too close to CC and her stardom to keep that perspective. Now they have started to adapt to her and this will continue for the next few years in both style of play and future drafts. Just IMHO....
Looks like the voters are a panel of journalists. Apparently, a panel of journalists issued interim standings of voting last week and Clark is winning by a 2-1 margin. I have no idea if this is the same panel who actually votes.
Why were you up at 3AM Evilmonkley?
Man, the first caller sounded like a young Bob Knight.
Why wasn't anyone else, would be the better question.......
Boy, he made a great point. I hadn’t even thought of, they do, meaning other teams, very much say stop C Clark and we’re probably going to win. And he’s also right they’re not trying to stop “Reese” from anything other than getting 700 rebounds, now that’s a chore, and they haven’t really been very successful, but the Sky are still losing games 🤷♂️
So a quick thought here, I think we’ve all assumed they front loaded and over scheduled the Fever in the first month of the season for viewership and ultimately money.
But is there a potentiality if the top brass share much of the same “liberal“ agendas as much of the players, Talking Heads and coaches could’ve they purposefully set her up for failure? I’m really not this much of a conspiracist anymore and that feels a little bit like killing the golden goose, but…
Could’ve they naïvely been trying to say hey you’re here to see Caitlin Clark, but look how good the rest of these teams are. So maybe, trying to “brand their image” with CC as a catalyst.
I mean, as I say it out loud that doesn’t necessarily seem out of line, but it could’ve had really dire consequences, couldn’t it have, in reality I think it increased her stardom?!
I do not think there is any way the top brass purposefully set her up for failure - that does not make sense to me. However, that does not mean they aren't incompetent, or that they do not know how to build up other players without diminishing Caitlin. I just think it is a mismanaged league with too many people in positions of power who cannot consistently refrain from making emotional/childish/improvident decisions.
Now take away the TOs where her teammates should have caught the pass and add the assists where they missed an entirely makeable shot.
So John Kennedy, the humorous senator from Louisiana, just said that the only better VP nominee would have been Caitlin Clark.
Btw, no politics intended. Just noting another marker in Caitlin's broad popularity.
Btw, no politics intended. Just noting another marker in Caitlin's broad popularity.
Yes, based on other things I’ve witnessed I think that is likely a good take. And you are right it does not make sense. It just seems like a poorly thought out decision.🤷♂️
Kate!
This play shouldn't go unnoticed.
This play shouldn't go unnoticed.
I would say that Clark is diminishing the sometimes Mediocrity from some of those teams in front of their fans, with Greatness, and that fills seats. If I were the Organization facing the Fever, I'd say, Hell ya' let's ride this like a "borrowed mule" as long as we can.
Teams are leaving Wheeler, Hull, Wallace, and even KLS wide open on 3 attempts. They want them to take those shots. The Fever need to bring in at least one better shooter in the offseason.
So in a very casual on again off again Webb crawl. I am finding that again like many things in life, politics in particular, the media DriVin agenda might not be what “real people” believe…
This is a Chicago Sky message board with some very real takes, including videos many of you may have seen. One feature is Lexie Brown a WNBA player who doesn’t really want to go out and out clearly say it’s Clark, but she made an incredible point, well keeping in mind she was a little bit prodded by the other guy who was all in for Caitlin, but, CC is at the top of every teams scouting report.
“Real people” see the difference
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Below is a commentary on Angel, by a guy who is a fan, but it is very reminiscent of how I see her…as an incredibly awkward, un-athletic, yet strangely very athletic & skilled, yet un-skilled player…doh!! Say that 5 times fast!
“”””re: the block numbers - in general, i think reese is a better perimeter defender than she is a rim protector, and while her size lets her do a solid-to-good job one on one against most scoring bigs, she can't translate that into blocked shots and she's not going to come off the weak side to block any shots either.
more specifically, part of what makes reese a unique player is that she is extremely uncoordinated in some aspects of her game and weirdly coordinated in others. to put it bluntly, she just seems to be bad at blocking shots. that's not something her hand-eye coordination is built for. (on the flip side, she does seem to be good at getting steals. strange dichotomy!)
she is also very famously rough at finishing around the rim, although she has certain angles she can be effective from (and over the course of the season, she seems to be more frequently getting to those angles). she's shown flashes of a crudely effective off-the-dribble game, she's really good at drawing fouls, she's turning into a legitimately good free throw shooter...it's a very strange assemblage of skills and weaknesses.””””
“”””re: the block numbers - in general, i think reese is a better perimeter defender than she is a rim protector, and while her size lets her do a solid-to-good job one on one against most scoring bigs, she can't translate that into blocked shots and she's not going to come off the weak side to block any shots either.
more specifically, part of what makes reese a unique player is that she is extremely uncoordinated in some aspects of her game and weirdly coordinated in others. to put it bluntly, she just seems to be bad at blocking shots. that's not something her hand-eye coordination is built for. (on the flip side, she does seem to be good at getting steals. strange dichotomy!)
she is also very famously rough at finishing around the rim, although she has certain angles she can be effective from (and over the course of the season, she seems to be more frequently getting to those angles). she's shown flashes of a crudely effective off-the-dribble game, she's really good at drawing fouls, she's turning into a legitimately good free throw shooter...it's a very strange assemblage of skills and weaknesses.””””
I’m also seeing basketball fans or seasoned basketball fans that do know about analytics saying they are notoriously fond of Bigs and rebounding and they’re all crap. For example I saw someone say Scottie Pippen’s career WA shares is 140 and Carlos Boozer is @148
Which means these Talking Heads @ESPN or at least most of them know they are crap metrics, they also know they don’t favor guards, and they know comparing a forward to a guard is utter crap😂
Which means these Talking Heads @ESPN or at least most of them know they are crap metrics, they also know they don’t favor guards, and they know comparing a forward to a guard is utter crap😂
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Another interesting tidbit…
Sorry I can't let this go unaddressed: those "advanced" stats are passe imo. WS vastly over rates rebounds, especially defensive, PER over rates counting stats in general, and the ortg and drtg are hopelessly tied up in 5 man/women unit data to be any use.
Basketball doesn't really have anything close to WAR in baseball, not yet anyways. Maybe some of the on off court stuff ESPN is doing will get there one day.
Sorry I can't let this go unaddressed: those "advanced" stats are passe imo. WS vastly over rates rebounds, especially defensive, PER over rates counting stats in general, and the ortg and drtg are hopelessly tied up in 5 man/women unit data to be any use.
Basketball doesn't really have anything close to WAR in baseball, not yet anyways. Maybe some of the on off court stuff ESPN is doing will get there one day.
Now I don’t wanna get caught up in possible confirmation bias, but a couple of these cats are sharp…
there are no good advanced stats for wnba. nobody yet cares enough to take the time. even college women's has the respectable BPM. but not WNBA
and clark is heavy favorite for ROY. frankly, reese is the "sucker bet" - free money for the casino (like michelle obama at 18:1 to be the next president). basically if you're betting on reese you'd better hope that clark gets injured soon. odds converted directly to percentages:
88% clark
19% reese
2% other
they need a 2nd person in the race or nobody will bet
there are no good advanced stats for wnba. nobody yet cares enough to take the time. even college women's has the respectable BPM. but not WNBA
and clark is heavy favorite for ROY. frankly, reese is the "sucker bet" - free money for the casino (like michelle obama at 18:1 to be the next president). basically if you're betting on reese you'd better hope that clark gets injured soon. odds converted directly to percentages:
88% clark
19% reese
2% other
they need a 2nd person in the race or nobody will bet
I see what you mean. Even though the posts were from nine days ago, probably not much has changed, especially after the streak was ended. That one dude (Whose name I won't mention for respecting his anonymity) who brought up advanced stats to make his case was challenged for his critique of Reese, although, if he illustrated those stats then I must have missed it lol. But, the meat of those comments were, as you said, REAL. A little head butting in there, but we butt heads here as well. Enjoyed the commentary.So in a very casual on again off again Webb crawl. I am finding that again like many things in life, politics in particular, the media DriVin agenda might not be what “real people” believe…
This is a Chicago Sky message board with some very real takes, including videos many of you may have seen. One feature is Lexie Brown a WNBA player who doesn’t really want to go out and out clearly say it’s Clark, but she made an incredible point, well keeping in mind she was a little bit prodded by the other guy who was all in for Caitlin, but, CC is that the top of every teams scouting report.
“Real people” see the difference
Also enjoyed the Carter comment. Too bad she's been overshadowed by the double-double race.
With 15 games to go, too.
409,207 / 25 games = 16,368/game
409,207 / 25 games = 16,368/game
Yes, my link may not have allowed you to click all the way up to today’s comments, but there were some.
Several folks echoing similar things to what we have said, that she will always have high turnover numbers, but it’s more than worth it, someone said James Harden, during his big run. Where he was a big-time scorer and creator averaged around five, one guy did point out that she can be fairly reckless But again it’s worth it… All in all the media drive is bizarre because I don’t think that’s the middle of the road take and as we know the middle of the road is the largest part!
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Agreed. There is no way that the wnba league office intended try to set her up for failure--and she didn't fail anyway. I also don't think it was some random thing that the Fever started the season with seven games in 12 days, and 10 games in less than three weeks. That hadn't happened since 2011. Before that it hadn't happened since 2006. No way it randomly happened more than a decade later to the Fever in CC's rookie season. Slightly less odd, but still kind of odd, was the start with so many games against the league's top teams. First four game are two apiece against the Sun and Liberty? Next five games have two against the Storm and one against the Aces? It seems likely to me that the schedulers wanted to capitalize on the momentum of the wave of college basketball popularity by showcasing some of their best teams. Mixed with the scheduling challenges of an Olympic year, the result was a gauntlet of a start for the Fever.
I think this is the most likely scenario.
how the hell did she make this pass?
