*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
- Start date
I have been wrong a number of times in these threads (specifically, when I doubted whether Javy Baez could ever have a good offensive season), but I have consistently stated that the inability of Theo/Hoyer/McLeod to draft/sign/develop pitchers would shorten the competitive window of this group.
This is proving to be spot on. The objective when they rebuilt the org was to acquire a surplus of young hitting talent, and buy veteran pitching because the hitting talent will be cheap. Mission accomplished.
But to extend this window, it was imperative that they then developed some pitching in their system to supplement the aging of the veteran pitchers, and the increasing costs of the young hitters.
To say that the Cubs have failed miserably to do that would be a gross understatement. Their pitching system is an embarrassment. Not a single top-100 guy in anybody's rankings after 6 years.
This led to the infamous Darvish and Chatwood deals of last year. Now, to compensate for those terrible deals, the Cubs are paying Cole Hamels $20M. Yes, in 2019 the Cubs will be paying $53M to three guys (Darvish, Hamels, Chatwood) who they hope to man the 4/5 slots in the rotation.
I am sure somebody will come in here and post about some prospect in High A who is killing it and will someday be the elusive homegrown starter that this org has yet to produce.
This is proving to be spot on. The objective when they rebuilt the org was to acquire a surplus of young hitting talent, and buy veteran pitching because the hitting talent will be cheap. Mission accomplished.
But to extend this window, it was imperative that they then developed some pitching in their system to supplement the aging of the veteran pitchers, and the increasing costs of the young hitters.
To say that the Cubs have failed miserably to do that would be a gross understatement. Their pitching system is an embarrassment. Not a single top-100 guy in anybody's rankings after 6 years.
This led to the infamous Darvish and Chatwood deals of last year. Now, to compensate for those terrible deals, the Cubs are paying Cole Hamels $20M. Yes, in 2019 the Cubs will be paying $53M to three guys (Darvish, Hamels, Chatwood) who they hope to man the 4/5 slots in the rotation.
I am sure somebody will come in here and post about some prospect in High A who is killing it and will someday be the elusive homegrown starter that this org has yet to produce.
That horse has been officially declared deceased. Further beatings have been determined to be unnecessary and excessive.
Honestly, it's hard to see the Cubs making out in a Schwarber deal unless they play the "he's not available" card and get a couple teams to compete. I still think there's a potentially really good hitter in there and I'd rather the Cubs continue to take that flier than give him away for a couple middling prospects that are likely to be nothing. The Cubs don't HAVE to deal him.
That said, I do think there's a pretty strong argument that the Cubs really missed their window dealing him after 2015 and 2016 playoffs.
Congrats, I guess. You're brilliant.
The situation still is what it is, though, and no matter how many times you post this rant, the Cubs still have to work with what they have going forward.
I think by not available they mean haven’t received good offers.
Likely so. Like I said, if they're going to trade him, it's either going to be after a very good season or it's going to be because the Cubs consistently message that he's not available and someone eventually makes a dumb offer that the Cubs can't refuse.
I hope we don't. It's stupid and it's going to be hard to enforce. If they actually put one in, would they then have to do something about the "infield in" defense with a runner on 3rd? How about 1st/3rd charging hard on a bunt play? Every time the defense moves out of neutral, they're making a percentage play, but also giving up a chunk of the field.
The shift is really no different than 9 in the box against a run look or a prevent defense late in the game or double/triple coverage on a great WR or basketball player. In order to take something away, the defense has to give something up.
Far from brilliant.
I point this out because many want to see the Cubs make aggressive moves, and the Cubs lack flexibility to do much of anything. Their farm system is a steaming pile, and they can't trade many of their young cost-controlled guys because Cubs need their low salaries (Schwarber, Happ, etc.).
The only way they can make transformational moves is if Ricketts says the heck with it and allows Theo to run the #1 payroll in baseball for the next few seasons.
Theo is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. When they do the documentary on him following his career, it will feature many highlights, along with the "What were you thinking?" segment which focuses on his signings of Darvish, Chatwood, and Morrow before the 2018 season.
He's a one trick pony, but some AL team might just be desperate enough. The problem I see is that he's not getting you a #2/3 pitcher.
I know people all have different opinions on war and fangraphs, but they gave him a 3.2 war in 2018. you don't just give these guys away.
im glad you have finally come around to the correct opinion that theo is a HOFer, for a long time you just said he was good but not great. he is clearly great, just not perfect.
Come on now ... Theo signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year $142 million deal with Boston. I am not sure that can be topped. Yet, he is a HOFer - mistakes happen. It's how you react that really shows your mettle.
Anyone who follows these threads knows that you basically cut and paste the same rant weekly during the season. Maybe you have a bad memory and forget what you have already posted numerous times? I can’t wait to see this same post another 25 times this season!
That's really my beef with it. The horse is long since dead. You can post every single day about how the Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood deals were bad last year and have huge questions for this year. Sure.....but ok, once that's on the table, then what? We can lament the weakened farm system, but once we do....then what? Saying it today and next week and the week after that doesn't change anything, it's not a new idea, it's not really even discussion-worthy.
Give me the next part.....so we're in this boat already. What would you do next? How would you work around the bad contracts and the ever-more expensive position players? How do the Cubs contend in 2019?
I will agree to not lament the bad as much from this point on. We all know that the org is in worse shape than it was two years ago, so how do you make it better (assuming Ricketts does not want to spend like a drunken sailor)?
-Sign a veteran backup catcher, such as AJ Ellis. Contreras ran out of gas last year, and he needs a veteran around to mentor him on his receiving and game management.
-Trade one of Almora or Happ. Almora has a decently high floor, but a very low ceiling - your classic 4th outfielder on a good team. Happ has more upside with his ability to switch hit, power, plate discipline, and ability to play multiple positions. Heyward' contract and the organizational infatuation with Kyle Schwarber as an elite hitter will never allow Happ the playing time to flourish. He could also land a better return. Hopefully the return is a utility infielder with the ability to play SS with the Russell suspension looming.
-Sign a high leverage lefty reliever, place Morrow on ice until July.
-Hope for individual improvements. If Bryant is healthy, you'll get much more from him than you did last year. Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber need to be better over 162 games than last year. Zobrist and Baez likely will perform worse than 2018. Heyward is likely never going to be a good hitter again.
-Hope for improvement from Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish.
If these things happen, they can win the NL Central.
After this year, they will have Zobrist ($12.5 M), Hamels ($20M), Morrow ($9M), Cishek ($6.5M), Strop ($6.2M), Kintzler ($5M), and Duensing ($3M). That's over $62M. Lester's $27M will be off the books the following year, along with Chatwood's $12.5M (thank goodness).
Unfortunately, Nico Hoerner is the only good prospect in the system right now, so 2019 will be a year of reckoning for the farm system to replace the veteran production that will be moving on or retiring.
I think Nico Hoerner, and I forget the 2nd round draft pick from last year, are both very good contact hitters. The Cubs need a couple of those kind of hitters in the lineup so hopefully these guys won't be more than a couple of years away. Their inability as a team to put the ball in play to get a runner home from 3rd with less than 2 outs has been exasperating to say the least.
Signing both. Theo just needs to trade away Zobrist, Chatwood, and Heyward in order to free up some cash.
I stopped reading after suggesting to trade Happ for a utility infielder to temporarily fill in for Russell.
Yes he is.
Give up some junk, get the other team's really good players. Radio-call-in-show trade suggestions are the best!
I’m allowing myself to get into the Harper Hype. How would this deal work? Any thoughts as to possibly backloading it to catch the meat of it after Heyward’s deal expires? Go low next year knowing Zobrist is basically the only meaningful contract coming off the books after 2019?
Is there a chance a young guy might only want 4-5 years? Maybe Harper decides the Cubs window closes about the time Bryant becomes a FA, and maybe he wants life mobility? That is part of the allure of free agency, right? P
Is there a chance a young guy might only want 4-5 years? Maybe Harper decides the Cubs window closes about the time Bryant becomes a FA, and maybe he wants life mobility? That is part of the allure of free agency, right? P
Going to post this once. The coastal teams have more money or allure. LA well it's Hollywood. Philly can outbid whatever the Cubs offer.
Okay. So, someone needs to show me how this works for the Cubs.
Not opposed to it, but I need to see how the Cubs pay for this. Even assuming the Ricketts have approved bumping up and over spending limits.
It actually depends on what other teams see in Montgomery. He looked good as a starter. If you think you can stretch him out and make him a #3 starter, then he does become a legitimate part of a package. If you see him as just a 4/5 or you see him as a swingman, then not as much.
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Likely so....but if someone gives up a Scooter-type for him, we'll know they viewed him otherwise.
