*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[MitchLL]

Kimbrell was bad late last year. The Red Sox won a ring in spite of Kimbrell. They were lucky to clear the Yankees.

Sergio Romo? Really?

That said, I think the Cubs should be able to get a good arm or two for Montgomery. You're not going to get an elite closer, but Montgomery can be a 3 for a lot of teams who aren't contending. That's value.

Couple things... While Romo's stats aren't good right now, he's got cred because he's closed in the playoffs. Sometimes pitching for a bad club is mental. Look how Hamel improved coming from the Rangers.
And Kimbrel is better than anyone the Cubs have now. That's shouldn't be debatable.

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

 

[33hawkfan]

Couple things... While Romo's stats aren't good right now, he's got cred because he's closed in the playoffs. Sometimes pitching for a bad club is mental. Look how Hamel improved coming from the Rangers.
And Kimbrel is better than anyone the Cubs have now. That's shouldn't be debatable.

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

What's Brian Wilson doing these days? He's probably available and closed in the playoffs so why not?

 

[MitchLL]

What's Brian Wilson doing these days? He's probably available and closed in the playoffs so why not?

Call Theo. He's better than, or was, what they have now.

I realize there's no hurry. But most here seem to hope the current occupants are somehow, magically, going to be good closers.

There isn't a Cubs fan on the face of the Earth that would trust Schrop in the 9th inning of game 7 of the WS.

But I'll continue my argument if you'd like.

 

[dgordo]

Pedro strop is literally one of the best relief pitchers in baseball since coming to the cubs and I absolutely trust him. These are all numbers in high leverage situations.

 

[hawkifann]

Couple things... While Romo's stats aren't good right now, he's got cred because he's closed in the playoffs. Sometimes pitching for a bad club is mental. Look how Hamel improved coming from the Rangers.
And Kimbrel is better than anyone the Cubs have now. That's shouldn't be debatable.

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

Sergio Romo is 36. He hasn't been good this season and he wasn't particularly good the last two seasons either. If you look at the post-season, he hasn't been since 2016, when he was not good at all. He was so-so in 2014 The last time he had a really good post-season was 2012 when he was 29. While I wouldn't hate a Romo pick up as a bullpen depth arm, there are a lot of guys that are better potential answers at closer than Romo.....I don't see Romo at 36 as any better option that Strop or Cishek, frankly.

As for Montgomery, you can say he's not a 3, but the numbers say otherwise. Over the past few years, the statistically average MLB starter has been pretty consistent. 4.10-4.35 ERA, 5 1/3 IP per start, 2-1 K-BB rate and roughly 6K/9IP. For his career as a starter, Montgomery is 4.03 ERA, averaging 5 1/3 per start with a 2.5 K-BB rate with 6 Ks per 9 IP. Last year, he was 3.69 ERA as a starter with a 2.5 K-BB rate and 6.5K/9IP.

His numbers say he's very slightly above average, which would put him at the very definition of a league-average 3. There are a lot of teams for whom he wouldn't be a 3, but there are more than a few lower half teams where he'd be a 3 with some upside, especially considering he's making just under $2.5M this year with 2 arb years remaining.

 

[33hawkfan]

Pedro strop is literally one of the best relief pitchers in baseball since coming to the cubs and I absolutely trust him. These are all numbers in high leverage situations.

View embedded media

Is this why he hasn't been cut yet?

 

[hawkifann]

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

And to be clear, the post you replied to with this is me saying there are a lot of NON-CONTENDING teams for whom Montgomery could be a 3. There are teams that would definitely take Montgomery and his contract for a bullpen arm or two given the fact that he can be a league average starter and above-average swingman for a solid price. He could help a team catch lightning in a bottle next year or be a very flippable piece at the deadline this year or any of the next 2 seasons.

 

[hawkifann]

Pedro strop is literally one of the best relief pitchers in baseball since coming to the cubs and I absolutely trust him. These are all numbers in high leverage situations.

View embedded media

My biggest worry with Strop is that the past several years, for a variety of reasons, he hasn't been healthy in October. If he's healthy, I trust him, but there's no doubt this team needs more bullpen depth.

 

[MitchLL]

Pedro strop is literally one of the best relief pitchers in baseball since coming to the cubs and I absolutely trust him. These are all numbers in high leverage situations.

View embedded media

The main reason he's been fun was exemplified a few nights ago. He blows a game and stands in the dugout laughing. Most guys with the mindset of a closer would have gone into the locker room and busted a water cooler.

Regarding Montgomery... Cubs can't trade him. He's an insurance policy because of the uncertainty and dependability of Chatwood and Darvish.

Schwarber is your trade bait... clear and simple.

 

[mthawkeyes]

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

Statistics over the past three seasons disagree.

ERA
2016: MLB: 4.19, MM: 2.52
2017: MLB: 4.36, MM: 3.38
2018: MLB: 4.15, MM: 3.99

 

[MitchLL]

Statistics over the past three seasons disagree.

ERA
2016: MLB: 4.19, MM: 2.52
2017: MLB: 4.36, MM: 3.38
2018: MLB: 4.15, MM: 3.99

Can you do the math on just the NL ERAs. The DH distorts the AL numbers.

 

[noleclone2]

Statistics over the past three seasons disagree.

ERA
2016: MLB: 4.19, MM: 2.52 and got last out in the World Series!!!!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!WOOOOOO!!
2017: MLB: 4.36, MM: 3.38
2018: MLB: 4.15, MM: 3.99

Fixed it for you

 

[33hawkfan]

The main reason he's been fun was exemplified a few nights ago. He blows a game and stands in the dugout laughing. Most guys with the mindset of a closer would have gone into the locker room and busted a water cooler.

Regarding Montgomery... Cubs can't trade him. He's an insurance policy because of the uncertainty and dependability of Chatwood and Darvish.

Schwarber is your trade bait... clear and simple.

LOL and then what would have happened? Would the Cubs get to replay the 9th because he broke a water cooler?

 

[hawkifann]

The main reason he's been fun was exemplified a few nights ago. He blows a game and stands in the dugout laughing. Most guys with the mindset of a closer would have gone into the locker room and busted a water cooler.

Regarding Montgomery... Cubs can't trade him. He's an insurance policy because of the uncertainty and dependability of Chatwood and Darvish.

Schwarber is your trade bait... clear and simple.

I'm not going to say that laughing in the dugout is a great look after blowing a save, but I will say that I think part of what makes Strop really consistent is that once an outing is over, it's in the past. That ability to get past failure quickly and to not dwell on success is really helpful for guys who make as many appearances as he does. He can't still be thinking about yesterday's blown save if he's brought in to get a big out today. Move on.

As for Montgomery, he's absolutely a trade chip and I think they'll move him. They won't rush to move him, but I think they will. They may move Schwarber, too, we'll see. I think the bullpen will become a significant enough need by July that as much as they might like to keep Monty as an insurance policy, they'll find that he has more value as a trade chip. I think there's a very real possibility that at least two and possibly 3 of Schwarber/Monty/Russell/Happ/Zobrist/Bote won't be Cubs in August.

 

[hawkifann]

Statistics over the past three seasons disagree.

ERA
2016: MLB: 4.19, MM: 2.52
2017: MLB: 4.36, MM: 3.38
2018: MLB: 4.15, MM: 3.99

@MitchLL

ERA (may be rounding difference from previous post, my numbers are from Baseball Reference...and note that league and MLB ERAs are for entire leagues, not starters only)
2016: AL 4.20, NL 4.16, MLB 4.18, Monty: 2.52 overall, 3.28 as starter
2017: AL 4.37, NL 4.34, MLB 4.36, Monty: 3.38 overall, 4.15 as starter
2018: AL 4.27, NL 4.02, MLB 4.14, Monty: 3.99 overall, 3.69 as starter

 

[mstp1992]

Addison Russell doesn’t seem very contrite.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/cubs-addison-russell-wrigley-field-2019/

 

[SoDakHawk]

The main reason he's been fun was exemplified a few nights ago. He blows a game and stands in the dugout laughing. Most guys with the mindset of a closer would have gone into the locker room and busted a water cooler.

Regarding Montgomery... Cubs can't trade him. He's an insurance policy because of the uncertainty and dependability of Chatwood and Darvish.

Schwarber is your trade bait... clear and simple.

Agree. Not trading Montgomery. His versatility of being able to start, come out of the pen, go long innings of relief, be a setup guy, etc. is just too valuable. You only trade him for an elite, lock down closer, and that isn't going to be available so you keep him.

Kick the tires on the guy from Detroit. I posted earlier that we need to find an undervalued reliever that can get the job done. Monty was undervalued when the Cubs got him, a guy like that.

 

[UNIowaHawk]

Montgomery isn't a 3 on any good team. Not even close.

I don’t know about this. As it stands now he could be a 3, or in the running for 2-4 for the following teams:
Braves
Orioles (they blow)
Red Sox
White Sox (they blow)
Rockies
Royals (they blow)
Angels
Marlins (they blow)
Brewers (their starting staff isn’t very good. Interested to see how Gio holds up. Could see MM as 3/4 here)
Twins (they are pitching out of their ass right now, but will likely come back down to Earth)
A’s (they blow and only have a 1-2)
Giants (they blow)
Cardinals (is he any worse than their bottom 3– Wainwright, Wacha, Hudson?)
Rangers

 

[lucas80]

Addison Russell doesn’t seem very contrite.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/cubs-addison-russell-wrigley-field-2019/

The writer ambushed him with a gotcha question.
Yes, I’m kidding. Russell was off script. Hopefully he hits the ball and can be dealt.

 

[rivalhawks]

Call Theo. He's better than, or was, what they have now.

I realize there's no hurry. But most here seem to hope the current occupants are somehow, magically, going to be good closers.

There isn't a Cubs fan on the face of the Earth that would trust Schrop in the 9th inning of game 7 of the WS.

But I'll continue my argument if you'd like.

Well Edwards and Monty closed out game 7 vs Cleveland after a true closer in Chapman failed.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

Well Edwards and Monty closed out game 7 vs Cleveland after a true closer in Chapman failed.

Yeah, Chapman really failed in those playoffs

 

[hawkifann]

Yeah, Chapman really failed in those playoffs

I think it's pretty clear that the larger point is depth of pen, not jus one big stud. Cubs wouldn't have done what they did in the playoffs without Chapman...and yet Chapman did blow the save in game 7. In retrospect, not only did Chapman fill the closest thing that team had to a hole, but he came in right before Rondon and Strop were injured. IIRC, Rondon missed the entire postseason and Strop was significantly limited.

 

[rivalhawks]

Yeah, Chapman really failed in those playoffs

I said game 7 not playoffs. Responding to a game 7 comment which I quoted as well. However Chapman did have 3 blown saves in 2016 playoffs.

Did Kimbrel even get the ball much in the World Series last year after Benny bailed him out in Houston with that diving catch and bases loaded?

Edit: So Kimbrel threw in 4 of the 5 WS games with 1 save. Never blew a save in 2018 postseason with a 5.91 era with 6 saves. 4 of his saves he entered with 3 run leads. The other 2 he had 2 run leads. He had 5 saves thru the ALCS with a 7.11 era. He gave up runs in 5 of 9 appearances and 4 of 6 of his save appearances. Living on the edge. Was lucky he came in with 2-3 run leads and not 1.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

I said game 7 not playoffs. Responding to a game 7 comment which I quoted as well. Fail

Did Kimbrel even get the ball much in the World Series last year after Benny bailed him out in Houston with that diving catch and bases loaded?

There is no game 7 without Chapman. Cherry picking game 7 to prove a point is a fail of an argument.

 

[mstp1992]

Stupid Cubs! Can’t even score one goddamn run.

Piss poor effort from the hitters today, although they weren’t lighting things up against the worst team in the majors either.

 

[QChawks]

This team blows

 

[MitchLL]

Well Edwards and Monty closed out game 7 vs Cleveland after a true closer in Chapman failed.

You really want to go into the details about how Maddon misused Chapman?

That's a can of worms for you.

BTW:... You're cherry picking if you want to compare what Edwards and Montgomery have done vs the accomplishments of Chapman.

You new here?

 

[MitchLL]

I don’t know about this. As it stands now he could be a 3, or in the running for 2-4 for the following teams:
Braves
Orioles (they blow)
Red Sox
White Sox (they blow)
Rockies
Royals (they blow)
Angels
Marlins (they blow)
Brewers (their starting staff isn’t very good. Interested to see how Gio holds up. Could see MM as 3/4 here)
Twins (they are pitching out of their ass right now, but will likely come back down to Earth)
A’s (they blow and only have a 1-2)
Giants (they blow)
Cardinals (is he any worse than their bottom 3– Wainwright, Wacha, Hudson?)
Rangers

Eight of the teams you mentioned are bad. Of the remaining six... Rockies and Twins are borderline.

You just made my point! Thanks, I guess.

 

[hawkifann]

Eight of the teams you mentioned are bad. Of the remaining six... Rockies and Twins are borderline.

You just made my point! Thanks, I guess.

I'm not sure what your point is, though. You brought up your point in response to the idea that Monty is a 3 for a lot of non-contenders. Non-contenders aren't good.

 

[rivalhawks]

You really want to go into the details about how Maddon misused Chapman?

That's a can of worms for you.

BTW:... You're cherry picking if you want to compare what Edwards and Montgomery have done vs the accomplishments of Chapman.

You new here?

How was I comparing Edwards and Monty to Chapman? You said not a cubs fan on planet would trust Strop in 9th of WS. I pointed out Edwards and Monty saved that game. They more trustworthy than Strop? I agree Joe misused Chap but once you get that deep into the playoffs and game 7 of the WS everyone’s arm is about to fall off. Ask Brandon Morrow or go watch game 5 of 2017 WS when his arm was hanging by a thread. Was at that game and probably will never see another game as good as that one.

New? I’m well aware of your style from the wrestling board for several years. I live in goofer land so love your ribbing of the goofs btw! Actually had a goof fan try to tell me tonight that Spencer isn’t that good on top bc he’s never turned Russell and can’t turn the top guys. Smh

Anyway.... back to bitching about the cubs.

 

[noleclone2]

I wonder what the record for runners left on base in extra innings is? Cubs are making a run at it.

 

[Nothing_is_free]

The only thing Addison Russell can hit is women.

 

[win1forthe]

He shouldn’t even be on the team and it has nothing to do with his off the field stuff.

 

[noleclone2]

3 walk off homeruns in five days has to be a fairly rare thing, right?

 

[dgordo]

Willson!!

 

[dgordo]

Garbage bullpen sucked again today, 8 innings 0 runs. Awful.

 

[lucas80]

LOL. Some of you clowns wanted to cut Chatwood.

 

[mstp1992]

Contreras made up for the inexcusable double play he hit into a couple innings earlier.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Garbage bullpen sucked again today, 8 innings 0 runs. Awful.

Unacceptable, complete garbage!!

 

[MitchLL]

How was I comparing Edwards and Monty to Chapman? You said not a cubs fan on planet would trust Strop in 9th of WS. I pointed out Edwards and Monty saved that game. They more trustworthy than Strop? I agree Joe misused Chap but once you get that deep into the playoffs and game 7 of the WS everyone’s arm is about to fall off. Ask Brandon Morrow or go watch game 5 of 2017 WS when his arm was hanging by a thread. Was at that game and probably will never see another game as good as that one.

New? I’m well aware of your style from the wrestling board for several years. I live in goofer land so love your ribbing of the goofs btw! Actually had a goof fan try to tell me tonight that Spencer isn’t that good on top bc he’s never turned Russell and can’t turn the top guys. Smh

Anyway.... back to bitching about the cubs.

Remind your Gopher friend that Spencer Lee planted Russell's ass in the quarters this year. And tell him I said "Hi".

I kind of like to pull the chain of Cub's fans every so often. But I am dead serious when I say the current Cub's bullpen isn't good enough for October.