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*****Official Cubs 2023 thread*****

hawkifann said:
I’ve been thinking a lot about the Cubs ability to develop talent since Theo took over and I wanted to go back and compare where the Cubs are now to where they were in 2016 and then at the end of their championship run in 2019.

To do this, I broke the team into 3 categories:
  • Homegrown: Originally drafted/signed by the Cubs
  • Largely Developed Internally: Traded for or signed from another franchise, but had the bulk of at least 2 years in the Cubs system before coming up (basically in this era, that’s Hendricks, Palencia & Canari)
  • External (FAs & trades)
In the end, I did pull the first two groups together.

On the top line, the 2016 Cubs were 23.5% homegrown/developed (8 of 34 contributors), 2019 was 28.6% (12/42) and this year’s team is 43.2% (19/44).

Significant homegrown/developed contributors from each year:
  • 2016: Position Players - Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Almora, Soler, Szcur, Schwarber (postseason). Pitchers - Hendricks
  • 2019: Position Players - Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, Bote, Caratini, Happ. Pitchers - Hendricks (note: Hoerner was up the last 2 weeks of the season)
  • 2023: Position Players - Happ, Hoerner, Morel, Amaya. Pitchers - Steele, Alzolay, Hendricks, Assad, Palencia, Wicks
I have a lot of beefs with Jed Hoyer - I think this team could be leading the division with a better Opening Day roster. He’s done a good job moving on from guys who just weren’t good enough, but I think a good number of games were lost early (especially in May) due largely to just not having the right kinds of pieces. All that said, he’s led tremendous positive changes in the scouting and development game. The number of pitchers who have contributed and the number that look to be potentially ready over the next two years is absolutely staggering, compared to where this team was throughout the Theo era - and it hasn’t happened at the expense of bats. Still really exciting position prospects on the rise as well: PCA, Canario, Shaw, Rojas, Alcantara, Caissie, etc.

The future really does look bright from here.
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I won't pick nits with you, but how many late inning 1 run games have the Cubs lost this year? While a better opening day roster (no Mastreobueno) could have been achieved, keep in mind that Cubs were without Swanson, Belli, Stro, Hendo, etc for extended periods of time.

Bullpen was a mess so maybe the opening day roster was fine, just staff was discombobulated.
 
ICWestfan said:
I won't pick nits with you, but how many late inning 1 run games have the Cubs lost this year? While a better opening day roster (no Mastreobueno) could have been achieved, keep in mind that Cubs were without Swanson, Belli, Stro, Hendo, etc for extended periods of time.

Bullpen was a mess so maybe the opening day roster was fine, just staff was discombobulated.
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I’m thinking largely about a lot of the early season losses that were 2-1, 3-2, etc. Even with the bullpen finding its way early, the pitching was largely very good in that span and it was often the offense that let them down at a time when guys like Hosmer, Mancini, Torrens, Rios, Barnhart and Mastrobuoni (as much as I do like him as a utility player) were getting too many ABs and playing out of position (Mastro).

That said, I don’t want to distract too much from the point of my post, though - Jed has done a great job with the player dev side and rebuilding the farm and it’s great to see so many options coming up. What’s particularly great is that you don’t have to look much past AA at most positions to see alternatives to young guys at Iowa or at AAA. There’s a lot of depth, a lot of athleticism and a lot of versatility.
 
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hawkifann said:
I’m thinking largely about a lot of the early season losses that were 2-1, 3-2, etc. Even with the bullpen finding its way early, the pitching was largely very good in that span and it was often the offense that let them down at a time when guys like Hosmer, Mancini, Torrens, Rios, Barnhart and Mastrobuoni (as much as I do like him as a utility player) were getting too many ABs and playing out of position (Mastro).

That said, I don’t want to distract too much from the point of my post, though - Jed has done a great job with the player dev side and rebuilding the farm and it’s great to see so many options coming up. What’s particularly great is that you don’t have to look much past AA at most positions to see alternatives to young guys at Iowa or at AAA. There’s a lot of depth, a lot of athleticism and a lot of versatility.
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Well, if you put it like that....

edit: I think the plan was basically solid if the players had performed to historical or career levels.

edit edit: where would the Cubs be HAD those players worked out? Maybe muddling along and sellers at the deadline? Lot's of what if's here.
 
Last edited:
ICWestfan said:
Well, if you put it like that....

edit: I think the plan was basically solid if the players had performed to historical or career levels.

edit edit: where would the Cubs be HAD those players worked out? Maybe muddling along and sellers at the deadline? Lot's of what if's here.
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Sure, all of that is true. Probably my biggest beef with Jed this offseason was getting BOTH Hosmer and Mancini. It really locked out Mervis and hurt their overall roster flexibility. Also, not getting a little more pen help, but Box was hurt early and without that, maybe things go differently. Once the season started, I had a problem with him not taking 3 OFs to opening day - trying to patchwork Seiya being down with 2-3 non-OFs.
 
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hawkifann said:
I wonder if they picked AC because he’s going to play AFL, so the lost ABs in Iowa don’t matter quite as much. That said, I was a little bit surprised that, if they weren’t picking PCA and weren’t going to play AC much, that they didn’t go ahead and snag PJ Higgins just to get that extra versatility with the 3rd catcher. PJ has it fine at Iowa, but if he’s up, the Cubs have more flexibility to potentially run for Gomes/Amaya or use one of them as a PH to still have that emergency guy on the bench.

Whatever, though, they have their plan and I’m not going to argue a bunch given how well the team is playing right now.
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I'm surprised they didn't go with Higgins. Ross clearly doesn't want to put Canario into games. Higgins does have MLB experience, and has enough pop in his bat to be a credible pinch hitter, and can spot start at more than one position.
 
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I'll take the blame for the loss against the D'backs.

Over the last couple of weeks I have rarely watched the Cubs but due to not of a lot to do tonight, I decided to watch. Of course, the Cubs lost, especially in a contest where the Cubs had an advantage in the SP matchup. Their pitcher has sucked in recent starts while Assad has excelled. Just baseball, I guess?

Tomorrow they have Gallen going against Taillon, so maybe trends will repeat? If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, the Cubs will end up with about 87 wins, which should result in a WC slot I would think.

Keep the faith!
 
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TheCainer said:
I'll take the blame for the loss against the D'backs.

Over the last couple of weeks I have rarely watched the Cubs but due to not of a lot to do tonight, I decided to watch. Of course, the Cubs lost, especially in a contest where the Cubs had an advantage in the SP matchup. Their pitcher has sucked in recent starts while Assad has excelled. Just baseball, I guess?

Tomorrow they have Gallen going against Taillon, so maybe trends will repeat? If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, the Cubs will end up with about 87 wins, which should result in a WC slot I would think.

Keep the faith!
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Last night was a combo of just one of those games and a little bit of bad BABIP luck. Cubs had a lot of hard hit balls at guys and that just didn’t quite carry. Mixed schedule coming up - 6 more against AZ in the next 10 days, then a finish with Atlanta and Milwaukee wrapped around another Pirates series and 6 against Colorado. Just keep playing good ball.

Cubs have won or tied 15 of their last 17 series. Keep getting that done and they’re going to end in a good place.
 
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Will David Ross ever take his adoptive son out of three spot in the lineup and put him on the bench.
 
Not watching, but is there a reason they went to the bullpen when Taillon was on w/70 some pitches thrown? Gallen on the same pace, and is still in the game. Not like we've got the Nasty Boys bullpen coming in to finish it out.
 
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Well, glad that they were able to pull one out of this series. Bad time though for the bats to go silent, just like they did in Cincy. Fortunately the pitching has remained solid and it's always good to have an ace in the hole like Hendricks today. He's pitched a lot of big games for the Cubs over the years and has seldom disappointed. I still sense though that the BP must be running on fumes. Finally saw Ross switch Suzuki and Happ in the order, especially as hot as Suzuki has been. I hope the Cubs haven't hurt themselves too bad on head-to-head tie breakers as they have already lost those to Cincy, Philadelphia, and Miami and for all intents and purposes also to Arizona, barring a Cubs sweep there next weekend. San Francisco is the only series they've won. Could still beat Milwaukee too if it comes down to that last weekend. These last 3 weeks will be interesting to say the least.

Go Cubs!
 
MeetTheFerentzes said:
Rough series for sure, but still in good position. Winning games consistently is hard; that’s why you play 162, and why not many teams win 100+.

I look for this team to regroup and respond.
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18 games left. 9 against Pittsburgh & Colorado and 9 against Atlanta, Milwaukee and Arizona.

Looking at both leagues over the last decade, 86 is a pretty consistent number for the 3rd place team in the WC race. A 9-9 finish would put the Cubs at 86 wins. Hopefully they can do a little better than that. If the Cubs can win 4 series (assuming no sweeps), that’s a 10-8 finish for 87 wins and that’s almost certainly a playoff spot.
 
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hawkifann said:
18 games left. 9 against Pittsburgh & Colorado and 9 against Atlanta, Milwaukee and Arizona.

Looking at both leagues over the last decade, 86 is a pretty consistent number for the 3rd place team in the WC race. A 9-9 finish would put the Cubs at 86 wins. Hopefully they can do a little better than that. If the Cubs can win 4 series (assuming no sweeps), that’s a 10-8 finish for 87 wins and that’s almost certainly a playoff spot.
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Need to avoid some of those tie breakers I mentioned earlier. Given the structure of the wild card scenarios, there are more magic numbers than Mickey Mouse/Walt Disney or I could ever have conceived of back in the day.
 
TheCainer said:
Need to avoid some of those tie breakers I mentioned earlier. Given the structure of the wild card scenarios, there are more magic numbers than Mickey Mouse/Walt Disney or I could ever have conceived of back in the day.
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The tie-breaks matter, but the worst would be a tie for the 3rd WC spot. If it’s a tie for division, #1 or #2 WC, it would suck to lose home games or flip a matchup, but at least they’d be in. At this point, there’s probably not a path to the division that doesn’t involve winning at least 2 of 3 from the Brewers at the end of the season and if the Cubs do that, they’d have the tiebreak with Milwaukee.

The Cubs are certainly more than capable of winning the AZ series next weekend, but I don’t see a sweep in the future, so that would be another tiebreak down.
 
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I wonder if this is a sign that Candelario is going on the IL. He left the game yesterday with back tightness. If he’s out, that likely means Bellinger sliding back to 1B on the regular, leaving only PCA for CF. We’ll see. Either way, this is tremendous, even though PCA will likely be used more as a pinch-runner, defensive replacement than anything else.
 
HawkeyeHitman said:
It looks like PCA is sitting on the bench now.
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I think he’ll get more run than Canario has. I think he’s more major-league ready and the Cubs are going to play in 2 really, really big OFs this week. He’ll definitely get some chances to go cover some ground.
 
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