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*******Official Cubs 2025 Thread*******

I'm still lurking the Cub's thread, but I absolutely still don't understand why Cub mgmt refuses to go after the big names on the market?????

They are in the only division in baseball without a dominant franchise and in a position where 90 wins wins the division 8 out of every 10 seasons.
Spend the $$$ and prove you are trying to win!
Shopping at Dollar General doesn't win titles.
Don’t see any big names other than Soto that are worth the multi year investment. And even him at supposedly 500 to 600 million is kinda nuts. Maybe go after the Chinese pitcher. Burnes is tempting but lots of miles on the arm and near 250 million plus is too risky as well.
 
Don’t see any big names other than Soto that are worth the multi year investment. And even him at supposedly 500 to 600 million is kinda nuts. Maybe go after the Chinese pitcher. Burnes is tempting but lots of miles on the arm and near 250 million plus is too risky as well.
That's just this year's guys.
It's pretty much the same story every year.
 
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That's just this year's guys.
It's pretty much the same story every year.
White Goodman Reaction GIF

It going after guys gets you Swanson and Hayward.
 
Don’t see any big names other than Soto that are worth the multi year investment. And even him at supposedly 500 to 600 million is kinda nuts. Maybe go after the Chinese pitcher. Burnes is tempting but lots of miles on the arm and near 250 million plus is too risky as well.
It’s a stronger pitching market than position players. If the Cubs wind up trading Bellinger, I wouldn’t hate Anthony Santander, but I think a bat upgrade likely comes from trade. I could see the Cubs going after potentially 2 starters and a couple relievers. In the pen, I’d love for the Cubs get get AJ Minter & Ryne Stanek and bring Jorge Lopez back. On the starter side, Roki Sasaki is the crown jewel if they can get him, otherwise, I’d like to see maybe like a Nick Pivetta plus an injury recovery flyer on Shane Bieber or Walker Buehler. Lots of options on the table.
 
It’s a stronger pitching market than position players. If the Cubs wind up trading Bellinger, I wouldn’t hate Anthony Santander, but I think a bat upgrade likely comes from trade. I could see the Cubs going after potentially 2 starters and a couple relievers. In the pen, I’d love for the Cubs get get AJ Minter & Ryne Stanek and bring Jorge Lopez back. On the starter side, Roki Sasaki is the crown jewel if they can get him, otherwise, I’d like to see maybe like a Nick Pivetta plus an injury recovery flyer on Shane Bieber or Walker Buehler. Lots of options on the table.
Well I’m talking about guys that won’t cost you some money. But guys that will cost you a shitload of money. Bergman, Soto, Adames, Burnes, Snell, Fhalerty.
 
Well I’m talking about guys that won’t cost you some money. But guys that will cost you a shitload of money. Bergman, Soto, Adames, Burnes, Snell, Fhalerty.
We’ll see what they do. There’s a lot of chatter about Bellinger potentially getting traded and I think the Cubs were genuinely surprised to see him opt in. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a major addition if Bellinger goes. They’re going to spend up near the CBT again and they’re currently $40-50M below that for this year, and more than that if Bellinger gets traded.
 
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For the Cubs? No, I strongly disagree. Rosario had a surprising season and showed some real pop and speed for sure, but he also struck out roughly 1/3 of the time at low A (147/456 PA). That’s a ton at that level. He has some real potential, but we’re talking several years down the road and purely within the Cubs system, he’s behind several other prospects closer to the bigs/rated more highly than he is. This was trading from depth, which is a great place to be.

Maybe Eli Morgan will come to Chicago and absolutely suck and then we can complain about the trade, but what we know about Morgan now is that he has multiple plus pitches, an elite hard contact/barrel rate, can go multiple innings and pitch in a lot of roles. He’s 28 and cost controlled for 3 years. There’s a lot to like about this deal.

Also, I think both sides feel good about this deal. I’m ok with both sides getting what they want.
Um, read the part of your post that I highlighted in my response....
 
Um, read the part of your post that I highlighted in my response....
Ah ha. The bolded part was sitting below the “See More” button. Now I see what you meant and can’t disagree. There are still worlds where the Cubs win this deal (Morel may never hit and Bigge/Johnson may not pan out), but I know which side I’d bet on at this point.
 
It’s a stronger pitching market than position players. If the Cubs wind up trading Bellinger, I wouldn’t hate Anthony Santander, but I think a bat upgrade likely comes from trade. I could see the Cubs going after potentially 2 starters and a couple relievers. In the pen, I’d love for the Cubs get get AJ Minter & Ryne Stanek and bring Jorge Lopez back. On the starter side, Roki Sasaki is the crown jewel if they can get him, otherwise, I’d like to see maybe like a Nick Pivetta plus an injury recovery flyer on Shane Bieber or Walker Buehler. Lots of options on the table.
Sasaki looks like the real deal. If he waits until after Jan 15th, it would let all team's bonus pool reset and found the below #'s online, so I am guessing he will wait. I get how much he could get for a bonus; but any idea how much of a contract a team could offer? Any idea if there are limits on first contracts in these situations once he signs the bonus?

If Sasaki signed this year, his maximum bonus would be $2,502,500 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In the 2025 period, the Athletics, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle and Tampa Bay each have $7,555,500 available.
Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Kansas City and Pittsburgh have $6,908,600 apiece, followed by Atlanta, Boston, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, San Diego, Texas, Toronto and Washington at $6,261,600.

On another note, read that the Cubs seem to be favoring Fried over the group out there. I'd be happy with any of the top 3 or 4
 
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Sasaki looks like the real deal. If he waits until after Jan 15th, it would let all team's bonus pool reset and found the below #'s online, so I am guessing he will wait. I get how much he could get for a bonus; but any idea how much of a contract a team could offer? Any idea if there are limits on first contracts in these situations once he signs the bonus?

If Sasaki signed this year, his maximum bonus would be $2,502,500 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In the 2025 period, the Athletics, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle and Tampa Bay each have $7,555,500 available.
Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Kansas City and Pittsburgh have $6,908,600 apiece, followed by Atlanta, Boston, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, San Diego, Texas, Toronto and Washington at $6,261,600.

On another note, read that the Cubs seem to be favoring Fried over the group out there. I'd be happy with any of the top 3 or 4
I'm going to go out on a limb and say he isn't signing with the A's.
 
Tauchman surprised me, but this bench needed a massive overhaul and it looks like it’s going to get one. Canario may start the season as 4th OF, as he’s out of options. Creates space for some youth on the bench and the addition of maybe 1 big vet bench bat.
 
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LOL. Tauchman is worth 10x to this team as Parades. This was a “We paid up the wazoo for this guy so we’d better keep him so we don’t look like idiots” decision. What a frickin’ joke.

Good thing we’ll have Keegan taking up space again in ‘25 as he spends yet another season mostly in AAA.

Hopefully Merryweather’s right arm won’t fall off by July.

Jed did a great job waiting for Madrigal’s value to absolutely bottom out before deciding to part ways, even though he’s had no role on the team for 2 years. He’s now had to non-tender both players he got in return for an elite closer.

Jed had better spend the rest of the offseason impressing the hell outta me….
 
LOL. Tauchman is worth 10x to this team as Parades. This was a “We paid up the wazoo for this guy so we’d better keep him so we don’t look like idiots” decision. What a frickin’ joke.

Good thing we’ll have Keegan taking up space again in ‘25 as he spends yet another season mostly in AAA.

Hopefully Merryweather’s right arm won’t fall off by July.

Jed did a great job waiting for Madrigal’s value to absolutely bottom out before deciding to part ways, even though he’s had no role on the team for 2 years. He’s now had to non-tender both players he got in return for an elite closer.

Jed had better spend the rest of the offseason impressing the hell outta me….
One small quibble, Thompson is out of options. He had to be traded, signed, or cut. Sounds like he took slightly under projected cost in order to have a little security. This one I’m okay with. Merryweather puzzles me because his arm keeps falling off.
Tauchman I guess is purely a money dump. Unless they sign a bench bat they are going with a MLB minimum from inside the system versus the $2.9 M Tauchman would have cost. For his role he was fine. Good at all 3 OF spots, some power, and a heady base runner.
Keeping Madrigal as long as they did was pure stubbornness and a refusal to admit they overvalued Nicky Bats in a trade.
 
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One small quibble, Thompson is out of options. He had to be traded, signed, or cut. Sounds like he took slightly under projected cost in order to have a little security. This one I’m okay with. Merryweather puzzles me because his arm keeps falling off.
Tauchman I guess is purely a money dump. Unless they sign a bench bat they are going with a MLB minimum from inside the system versus the $2.9 M Tauchman would have cost. For his role he was fine. Good at all 3 OF spots, some power, and a heady base runner.
Keeping Madrigal as long as they did was pure stubbornness and a refusal to admit they overvalued Nicky Bats in a trade.
I thought KT had an option year remaining, but if he doesn’t, then the move is even dumber than I thought. He’ll be released and out of the organization by June and Jed will get absolutely nothing in return…
 
So, the roster is down to 38.

How many players get signed to Major League contracts this offseason?

I figure they'll get 1 SP and 1 INF/OF.

If they find a second position player that's an upgrade over Masto, he'll just get DFA'd.

If they find a catcher that's an upgrade over Thaiss, he'll just get DFA'd.

They'll probably sign another 3-4 RP to minor league contracts and have them compete in spring training to see if they can get a spot on the roster (to take from Keegan and/or Kilian). Not sure I like this approach, as it seems like it's the same as last season (sign Neris and a bunch of guys looking to stay in the Majors; didn't work out so well).

Regardless, looking forward to hot stove discussion over the coming months.
 
I think they’ll acquire at least 1 and maybe 2 more MLB bullpen arms. I don’t think they’ll pay the closer premium, but I’m hoping they’ll at least get 1-2 from the group of guys like Finnegan, AJ Minter, Ryne Stanek. I think they’ll add one bat and at least 1 SP. The question will be how many come via trade vs. FA signings.
 
We’ll see what they do. There’s a lot of chatter about Bellinger potentially getting traded and I think the Cubs were genuinely surprised to see him opt in. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a major addition if Bellinger goes. They’re going to spend up near the CBT again and they’re currently $40-50M below that for this year, and more than that if Bellinger gets traded.
Bellinger is owed about 52 million if he takes player option in 26 correct? Not too risky. Doubt they get a ton for him though with injury history.
 
So, the roster is down to 38.

How many players get signed to Major League contracts this offseason?

I figure they'll get 1 SP and 1 INF/OF.

If they find a second position player that's an upgrade over Masto, he'll just get DFA'd.

If they find a catcher that's an upgrade over Thaiss, he'll just get DFA'd.

They'll probably sign another 3-4 RP to minor league contracts and have them compete in spring training to see if they can get a spot on the roster (to take from Keegan and/or Kilian). Not sure I like this approach, as it seems like it's the same as last season (sign Neris and a bunch of guys looking to stay in the Majors; didn't work out so well).

Regardless, looking forward to hot stove discussion over the coming months.
@hawkifann probably knows better, but Thais and Thompson are on split deals? I am going to be shocked if Thais breaks camp with the MLB club and is on the 40 man out of ST. He's defined to be a Des Moines guy who comes up if thee is a need. I believe he's got $400,000 guaranteed even if he starts the year in AAA. If they need him he's be added back to the 40 man and called up. Guarantees himself some money this way.
I could be wrong about that. I just don't understand all the machinations of the deals and the 40 man.
 
@hawkifann probably knows better, but Thais and Thompson are on split deals? I am going to be shocked if Thais breaks camp with the MLB club and is on the 40 man out of ST. He's defined to be a Des Moines guy who comes up if thee is a need. I believe he's got $400,000 guaranteed even if he starts the year in AAA. If they need him he's be added back to the 40 man and called up. Guarantees himself some money this way.
I could be wrong about that. I just don't understand all the machinations of the deals and the 40 man.
I know Thaiss is on a split deal. I haven’t seen that about Keegan, but it’s possible. Could be a good option for Keegan to do the same and lock in cash in a year where he has no more options remaining.
 
I know Thaiss is on a split deal. I haven’t seen that about Keegan, but it’s possible. Could be a good option for Keegan to do the same and lock in cash in a year where he has no more options remaining.
It wasn't announced, but because he took under his projected number there is speculation he also wanted to lock in some money. If he proves himself next season and earns a FA contract for 2026 it's a win for him.
 
It wasn't announced, but because he took under his projected number there is speculation he also wanted to lock in some money. If he proves himself next season and earns a FA contract for 2026 it's a win for him.
Agree. I still like Keegan. He looked good late in the season.
 
How do we take these reports that Jed was desperately trying to trade Bellinger (Dump salary), at the Winter meetings?
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/11/25/cubs-payroll-desperate/
I’m taking them as noise at this point. There seems to be this assumption out there that literally no team in baseball would want Belli even for a bag of balls and that the Cubs are re-setting payroll to Rays levels. Cubs have regularly spent to around CBT levels and I expect this year to be the same. I do think Jed likely assumed Cody would opt-out and started mapping out plans and now those plans have to change….but the prevailing wisdom on Twitter yesterday was that Bellinger is a player that could only find the starting lineup with the Cubs, which is absurd.
 
I’m taking them as noise at this point. There seems to be this assumption out there that literally no team in baseball would want Belli even for a bag of balls and that the Cubs are re-setting payroll to Rays levels. Cubs have regularly spent to around CBT levels and I expect this year to be the same. I do think Jed likely assumed Cody would opt-out and started mapping out plans and now those plans have to change….but the prevailing wisdom on Twitter yesterday was that Bellinger is a player that could only find the starting lineup with the Cubs, which is absurd.
His guaranteed money isn’t that bad. But the injury history is. For a contender he’s more of a guy you want to trade for mid year if he’s having a good season.
For a non contender you’re going to want to deal an expensive contract of your own. So it’s not an easy match.
 
I’m taking them as noise at this point. There seems to be this assumption out there that literally no team in baseball would want Belli even for a bag of balls and that the Cubs are re-setting payroll to Rays levels. Cubs have regularly spent to around CBT levels and I expect this year to be the same. I do think Jed likely assumed Cody would opt-out and started mapping out plans and now those plans have to change….but the prevailing wisdom on Twitter yesterday was that Bellinger is a player that could only find the starting lineup with the Cubs, which is absurd.
Completely agree. He had to know that he wasn’t going to get more money if he opted out. I am ok with him back, but would have preferred to move on.
 
Completely agree. He had to know that he wasn’t going to get more money if he opted out. I am ok with him back, but would have preferred to move on.
I thought there was a chance he’d opt out and get a lower AAV deal for more years. I could absolutely have seen him getting 4/$80M or potentially more, which is $30M+ more dollars than he’s guaranteed currently in Chicago….but either way, that has sailed at this point.
 
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My issue with dumping Bellinger is you’d have to take a bad contract in trade, pay some of the salary, or pay in prospects for someone to take the whole deal. Just stick him in RF and stop mincing around about trading him.
Trade some prospects if you trade anyone not named Hoerner.
 
I have a bad feeling that Jed is going to screw up the free agency again this winter, and we are stuck with basically the same roster as last year. I hope I am wrong.
Same roster or same starting lineup? The roster thing is already over - no Wisdom, Madrigal, Tauchman, Hendricks, Almonte, Adbert, Smyly plus the trade for Eli Morgan…..so the comments I keep seeing about Jed “running it back” should have ended last week. That’s more than a full third of last year’s opening day roster gone….and if we’re talking OD roster, can add Morel to that with the Paredes trade.

While I get concern over whether he’ll upgrade the lineup (we’re still REALLY early in the offseason), but one of last season’s fatal flaws was a bench so bad that Counsell felt better playing starters through significant injuries and poor performance than he did the guys on that bench. That bench has been completely nuked at this point.

Jed has work to do, clearly. We’ll see if he can get it done. Cubs will spend up near the CBT, which means he has a solid $50M-ish to spend even if he doesn’t trade Bellinger. I’d watch names like Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Roki Sasaki, AJ Minter, Blake Treinen, Kyle Finnegan, Ryne Stanek, Kyle Higashioka, Jose Iglesias and others. Plenty of guys out there who would make this team better.
 
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