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I'm on the 49ers tonight. SF is 7-3 in their last 10 against the Rams. ~80% of the public is on LA. Fade the public and take the home team.
I also like u39.5 receiving yards from Allen Robinson. Go easy on the over prop bets, this will likely be a defensive game.
Just a taste before I apply the lines and such. Ignore the numbers between games. Just used them to help sort the table.Football Outsiders has released their stats, so @FAUlty Gator better be hard at work with his analysis stuff! From what I remember, I was able to put together a couple MASSIVE mismatches from looking over the stats, neither of these are a surprise:
Can’t wait to see what Coach Faulty comes up with!
GAME | Lean | Line | Units |
Aub/ UGA | UGA | -29.5 | 5 |
JMU/ Ark St | UNDER | 56 | 5 |
TAM/ Bama | Bama | -24 | 4 |
Oregon/ Ariz | Oregon | -7 | 4 |
AF/ Utah St | Utah St | 10 | 4 |
UNLV/ San Jose st | SJ TTU | 30 | 3 |
Utah/ UCLA | OVER | 65 | 3 |
Purdue/ Maryland | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
JMU/ Ark St. | JMU | -10.5 | 3 |
Ball St./ CMU | Ball State TTO | 28 | 2 |
Wyoming/ NM | Wyoming | -3.5 | 2 |
TAM/ Bama | TAM TT Under | 13 | 2 |
Wash/ ASU | Wash TT O | 36 | 2 |
BC/ Clemson | BC Under TT | 13 | 2 |
VT/ Pitt | UNDER | 44 | 2 |
Oregon St./ Stanford | OVER | 55 | 1 |
Games | ||||||
OFF | OFF | Def | Def | |||
Pass | Run | Pass | Run | |||
DVOA | DVOA | DVOA | DVOA | LEAN | ||
IND | 30 | 32 | 27 | 2 | ||
DEN | 17 | 26 | 6 | 20 | ||
NYG | 19 | 7 | 23 | 21 | OVER GB/ NYG | |
GB | 14 | 5 | 9 | 28 | ||
PIT | 26 | 18 | 12 | 15 | Under Pitt TTO | |
BUF | 5 | 31 | 1 | 9 | ||
LAC | 6 | 30 | 11 | 18 | OVER LAC/ CLE | |
CLE | 11 | 3 | 18 | 30 | ||
CHI | 32 | 11 | 15 | 24 | OVER Chi/ Min | |
MIN | 15 | 10 | 20 | 27 | ||
DET | 12 | 4 | 24 | 32 | ||
NE | 28 | 1 | 10 | 31 | ||
SEA | 3 | 8 | 32 | 19 | NO | |
NO | 24 | 9 | 13 | 13 | ||
MIA | 2 | 20 | 31 | 4 | Under MIA/ NYJ | |
NYJ | 23 | 21 | 29 | 14 | ||
ATL | 18 | 2 | 17 | 26 | ||
TB | 10 | 29 | 3 | 17 | ||
TEN | 9 | 22 | 26 | 8 | Jax | |
WAS | 27 | 27 | 30 | 6 | Ten/ TTU | |
SF | 16 | 24 | 4 | 1 | ||
CAR | 31 | 16 | 19 | 10 | Car TTU | |
DAL | 13 | 12 | 5 | 25 | ||
LAR | 22 | 19 | 25 | 3 | ||
CIN | 20 | 28 | 8 | 7 | Under CIN/ BAL | |
BAL | 1 | 15 | 14 | 22 | ||
LV | 21 | 13 | 22 | 16 | ||
KC | 7 | 17 | 21 | 5 | ||
PHI | 4 | 6 | 2 | 23 | Philly | |
ARI | 25 | 14 | 28 | 11 | Phi Over TT | |
JAX | 8 | 25 | 7 | 12 | JAX | |
HOU | 29 | 23 | 16 | 29 |
Cash that +170!!! 4-0Might go with 1Q no TD +170. I've had success with betting no TD in a quarter this year and it's always decent + money. Looked back through the acct and I'm 3-0 on those +$572. A friend got me on them last year and I know I finished +$700 for the year. Probably playing with fire now.
You're lucky I didn't play itCash that +170!!! 4-0
I’m waffling. I was looking at SJSU’s efficiency numbers and I think they’re getting docked big time by playing FCS Portland State in week 1.
I can tolerate one more FG.
Sorry manI can tolerate one more FG.
Hopefully complacency sets in for SJSU and they just kinda play “burn the clock”.
Haha, no need to ever apologize! Lots of games, lots of season left. The numbers will be in a constant state of adjustment and correction.Sorry man
And here we go. Leaving time for adjustments, injuries, weather and other changes, of course. But this is the early system picks.
@Greenway4Prez
GAME Lean Line Units Aub/ UGA UGA -29.5 5 JMU/ Ark St UNDER 56 5 TAM/ Bama Bama -24 4 Oregon/ Ariz Oregon -7 4 AF/ Utah St Utah St 10 4 UNLV/ San Jose st SJ TTU 30 3 Utah/ UCLA OVER 65 3 Purdue/ Maryland Purdue 3 3 JMU/ Ark St. JMU -10.5 3 Ball St./ CMU Ball State TTO 28 2 Wyoming/ NM Wyoming -3.5 2 TAM/ Bama TAM TT Under 13 2 Wash/ ASU Wash TT O 36 2 BC/ Clemson BC Under TT 13 2 VT/ Pitt UNDER 44 2 Oregon St./ Stanford OVER 55 1
I need to trust the system. I picked three losers and my brain is just all scrambled right now.10-4 total record.
Bama game was a no play due to backup QB and probably will be going forward until Young is healthy.
5 unit games- 1-1
4 unit games- 2-0
3 unit games - 3-1
2 unit games- 3-2
1 unit games- 1-0
Week 1 Net- +17units
My top NFL plays today…I need to trust the system. I picked three losers and my brain is just all scrambled right now.
My top NFL plays today…
Bucs -10.5
Ravens -3
Commanders Pk
Bills -14
Jets TT Over 21
This was neat.I’m Mr. Teaser today. Various combinations involving:
Min -1.5
Cle +8.5
TB -3.5
Was +7
Dal +12
Dal/LAR UNDER 49
Bal +4
Sea +12.5
Three pretty sucky ass losses here I must say. Was 5-0 for most of all the 4.th quarters except WASH which was a pick at the 1.My top NFL plays today…
Bucs -10.5
Ravens -3
Commanders Pk
Bills -14
Jets TT Over 21
Oklahoma was -9 at one point.........How in the hell is Oklahoma -7 against Kansas?
Some other CFB lines that, at first glance, I like:
Baylor -3.5
Utah St -9.5
Penn St. +7.5
TCU -3.5