Great analysis here..
Year-over-year CPI came down to +5% when +5.2% was expected, and the month-over-month was +0.1%, also less than the +0.3% that was expected. The shelter component of CPI was +8% (owner’s equivalent rent) and +8.8% “rent of primary residence.” Take that fantasy out or, better yet, adjust for real numbers, and you are between 2% and 2.8% annualized inflation. Note the headline YOY rate was +6% last month … the roll-off of the base effect is accelerating and highly disinflationary. Core goods annual price inflation now? +1.5%
For those of us who knew the primary driver of 2021-22 inflation was supply-side dynamics, the challenges to the “supply of goods and services” was most often related to elements of the supply chain (and for good reason). I have documented in these pages the issues with freight, cargo, and shipping, not to mention the fundamental underlying problems with semiconductors and related component parts. But one of the reasons I have never believed my theory of the case was absolving Joe Biden of his role in the 2021-22 inflation despite the fact that I didn’t believe insane excess government spending only became inflationary when a President I didn’t like was there (see: 2003-2019) is because I do believe Joe Biden bears responsibility for the labor shortages of 2021 and 2022, and I do believe the labor shortages were a significant factor in supply-side challenges that put upward pressure on prices. In other words, my theory is still within the “right-wing politically correct” view to some degree, yet with nuance, and, well, nuance is unacceptable in this era.
The labor shortages I speak to that I think were policy-enhanced were largely driven by ridiculous transfer payments that began in the lame-duck session post-2020 election and then became a huge and grotesque part of the 2021 bill the Biden administration passed.