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POLITICO: Democrats are Panicking over Biden's Debate Performance. Democrat operative texted this: “Time for an open convention.”

That should set off alarm bells. If NY is in play that's defcon 1 for D's.

crazy times. but, at the same time, i can see how people in New York would be pissed off with the migrant issue (migrants getting put up in hotels; many committing crimes; etc)

hell, many immigrants living here legally are fed up; they came here legally and see that 85% of those who enter are getting released into the country.
 
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Two ways of looking at this. One, Biden is in deep trouble. Or two, the polls are wrong. My guess is it's option two. If NY or New Jersey or Virginia were all shifting radically to Trump you would expect to see all states radically shifting to Trump. But they're not. Polling still has major problems as we saw in 2022.

yeah, i don't see how New York is in play.
 
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Two ways of looking at this. One, Biden is in deep trouble. Or two, the polls are wrong. My guess is it's option two. If NY or New Jersey or Virginia were all shifting radically to Trump you would expect to see all states radically shifting to Trump. But they're not. Polling still has major problems as we saw in 2022.
There's also the fact the Joe polled higher going into the 2020 election than he actually performed. Same for Hillary in 2016.
 
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crazy times. but, at the same time, i can see how people in New York would be pissed off with the migrant issue (migrants getting put up in hotels; many committing crimes; etc)

hell, many immigrants living here legally are fed up; they came here legally and see that 85% of those who enter are getting released into the country.
The election for Governor was much closer than expected in 2022. 53 to 47.

Cuomo got 60% in 2018 for reference.
 
New York is not in play. Only one time in the past 30 years has a Republican POTUS candidate lost NY by less than 20 percentage points. That was in 2004, when GWB only lost NY by 18 points.
 
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I still can't believe that the Biden camp wanted that June debate to shake up the race.

Man, did they shake up the race.

I strongly suspect that there were some contrary thinking Biden insiders that were so concerned about Joe's abilities that they set up the June debate to provide a last chance off ramp for his candidacy,.. If all his people were 100% on board that debate should have never happened.
 
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I strongly suspect that there were some contrary thinking Biden insiders that were so concerned about Joe's abilities that they set up the June debate to provide a last chance off ramp for his candidacy,.. If all his people were 100% on board that debate should have never happened.
I absolutely think that was the plan. If this debate happened in September or October it would have been an even bigger disaster.
 
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I strongly suspect that there were some contrary thinking Biden insiders that were so concerned about Joe's abilities that they set up the June debate to provide a last chance off ramp for his candidacy,.. If all his people were 100% on board that debate should have never happened.

it will be interesting to see if there is a September Biden/Trump debate
 
The Democratic National Convention is still over 5 weeks away. IF Biden drops out, some election clerks might have to work some overtime. Big deal.



 
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