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Predicting 6 AA's for Iowa

M

MSU158

HB Heisman
Nov 20, 2014
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On a thread on a not to be named site, picking the AA's for DI teams is being done. I decided to do all 80 AA's and ended up with the following top 6.

tOSU-9
OkState-8
PSU-7
Michigan-7
Iowa-6
ASU-6

After doing so, I immediately took heat for giving Iowa 6 and inevitably ended up with a bet where someone actually put the Iowa over/under at 2.5 with the guy actually expecting to win. I admit, I think 5 is more likely, but here are the 6 I predicted: Sorenson, Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Downey and Stoll. What say you?
 
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MSU158 said:
On a thread on a not to be named site, picking the AA's for DI teams is being done. I decided to do all 80 AA's and ended up with the following top 6.

tOSU-9
OkState-8
PSU-7
Michigan-7
Iowa-6
ASU-6

After doing so, I immediately took heat for giving Iowa 6 and inevitably ended up with a bet where someone actually put the Iowa over/under at 2.5 with the guy actually expecting to win. I admit, I think 5 is more likely, but here are the 6 I predicted: Sorenson, Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Downey and Stoll. What say you?
Click to expand...
I predict 8 Lee, Sorensen, Kemerer, Marinelli(3rd-6th), Young(7th/8th), Downey, Wilcke(7th/8th), and Stoll(3rd-6th) will AA, with 4 in the finals (Lee, Sorensen, Kemerer, Downey) and 1 champ (Lee). Wouldn't be surprised with 5-7 though. Don't think we get any less than 5.
 
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I say 4-7. If they pull Lee and Stoll is healthy and Wilcke with a slight improvement.

I could see Lee keeping his shirt, Stoll not quite getting back to full strength, Wilcke as a r12 and Young as a r12/16 guy.

I think 5 or 6 is more likely with Young as a r12 guy.
 
Two definites in Sorenson and Kemerer. Marinelli is in a tough weight class, and Young is bumping up (plus both are freshmen). Downey is a question depending on whether he graduates from ISU and stays out of trouble. Still is a question based on recurring health issues. Then there are other unknowns at 197 with Wilcke who was a win away and at 125 if Lee competes. That's a wide range from 2 - 8.
 
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I am more looking to see if there was ANYONE that would stay away from betting the Over on a 2.5 Over/Under for Iowa AA's.
 
MSU158 said:
I am more looking to see if there was ANYONE that would stay away from betting the Over on a 2.5 Over/Under for Iowa AA's.
Click to expand...
I'd put a good chunk on the over. If the O/U was 3.5, I'd probably still take the over, but wouldn't put big money on it.
 
I would bet the farm on the over with the line at 2.5. That's ridiculously low.

Barring injury, Sorenson and Kemerer make two.

Then you only need one of the following possible:

Lee
Marinelli
Young
Downey
Wilcke
Stoll

Even if Lee and Downey are not in the lineup, at least one All-American out these four seems highly likely:

Marinelli
Young
Wilcke
Stoll
 
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I'll say 5. I think all of them could be in the finals, but that wouldn't be enough to win. Lee, Sorenson, Kemerer, Marinelli, Stoll.
 
25- Lee AA, Glynn fringe AA
33- Laux fringe AA
41- Fringe AA
49- BS AA
57- Kemerer AA
65- Bull AA
74- Young fringe AA
84- Downey AA
97- Wilcke fringe AA
285- Healthy Stoll AA

I think 5-7 AA
 
Knight563 said:
Comfortable saying 6
Click to expand...
If we roll out Lee and Downey, I would almost say 6 is a lock. Young and Wilcke are in the 7/8th - R12 range IMO, so they could both get on, or both miss. I feel very good about Lee-Sorensen-Kemerer-Marinelli-Downey-Stoll if they all step on the mat in March healthy.
 
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I would take the over-but too many questions to go over 3 IMO. Downey has to prove he can stay straight, Stall has to prove he can stay healthy, and not sure what they will do with Lee at this point. But Marinelli and Wilke, think one will break through at least.

Dang, is that being too nice?:(
 
I think 2.5 is a legit over under if you knew for sure that Lee and PD3 weren't going to be in the lineup, but I would still bet the over.

If they are in the lineup O/U should be closer to 4.5 with the guys on the bubble being Marinelli, Young, Stoll (only due to health) and Wilcke.
 
I only looked at these for 10 mins but I'd set the lines as...

Team O/U
tOSU 8.5
Penn St 7.5
Okie St 7.5
Mich 7.5
Iowa 6.5
ASU 6.5
Mizzou 5.5
VA Tech 4.5
Minnesota 4.5
NC State 4.5

Thoughts?
 
People saying we could have 5 finalists and still not win? Sure that's true, but I would be absolutely shocked if PSU has 5 champs again. I think they get 3.
 
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My takeaway is that there is some tough competition this year. When's the last time six teams each had six AAs?

Edit: Was prior to 2010...
2017: 3 teams with 6+ AAs
2016: 4
2015: 1
2014: 3
2013: 2
2012: 3
2011: 0
2010: 1
 
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TarpHawk said:
My takeaway is that there is some tough competition this year. When's the last time six teams each had six AAs?

Edit: Was prior to 2010...
2017: 3 teams with 6+ AAs
2016: 4
2015: 1
2014: 3
2013: 2
2012: 3
2011: 0
2010: 1
Click to expand...
Agreed. There's always wishful thinking from the fan bases. We're all guilty because we're fans.
 
Iowa's AAs probably look a little like this. (Slide the mean to the right a little if PD3 can stay on the straight and narrow and avoids rib injuries.)
riwro.png
 
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DayHawk18 said:
Did said poster also happen to be a fan of "the house that molests?"
Click to expand...
We're talking about Iowa wrestling and AAs and what's running though your mind? No...Its not the wrestlers nor their chances at AA status. Nope...its none of that... it's molestation.

No.....that's not creepy at all...
 
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Wrestlestat currently has Turk @ #20, Marinelli @ #22, Young @ #26, and Wilcke @ #26. They all have significant upside vs. their current ranking, but until they beat anyone in the top 8 it's hard to pencil them in as AAs. We'll know soon enough.
 
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TarpHawk said:
Wrestlestat currently has Turk @ #20, Marinelli @ #22, Young @ #26, and Wilcke @ #26. They all have significant upside vs. their current ranking, but until they beat anyone in the top 8 it's hard to pencil them in as AAs. We'll know soon enough.
Click to expand...
McFadden is ranked 8th and Marinelli beat him twice this summer. McFadden also was an AA his TF year.
 
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MSU158 said:
On a thread on a not to be named site, picking the AA's for DI teams is being done. I decided to do all 80 AA's and ended up with the following top 6.

tOSU-9
OkState-8
PSU-7
Michigan-7
Iowa-6
ASU-6

After doing so, I immediately took heat for giving Iowa 6 and inevitably ended up with a bet where someone actually put the Iowa over/under at 2.5 with the guy actually expecting to win. I admit, I think 5 is more likely, but here are the 6 I predicted: Sorenson, Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Downey and Stoll. What say you?
Click to expand...
Honestly I say you're a huge loser that needs a life. People disagree with you and you act like a whiny little bi*ch. This board is the perfect place for you.
 
I think we're at the pre-season high where we are wishing for some things that just won't happen (and setting ourselves up for disappointment come March). Lee is likely not going to start if the past is any indication of how Brands like to treat red shirts (I agree with this, let him continue to heal and grow while focusing on improving his technique) and without him there will likely be no AA at 125, 133 or 141. Sorenson is a pretty clear #2 to me with a (very outside) shot at beating Retherford, though I think it's less than a 1% chance we see that happen. Kemerrer is awesome and I think he is the 2nd best guy, but LaVallee and Berger can't be counted out. Smith is also very solid here if he wrestles. Marinelli is an interesting one since 165 is so stacked, but I think he gets in somewhere in the 6-8 range. He's just not as good as the top tier guys (yet) IMO. Young won't get it done, nor will Wilcke IMO (though 197 is ridiculously weak this year). Iowa's own Pat Downey is likely a top 4 if his summer is any indication of where he is at and Stoll is a big ? on health. Honestly, he lacks the technique to beat any of the top tier guys, but he could still fall into the 5-8 range if he over performs. I just don't think his underhook and stalk forward is going to be enough to get very high on the podium.

TL;DR version:

149 - Sorenson, 2nd
157 - Kemmerer, 2nd
165 - Marinelli, 6th
184 - Downey, 3rd
285 - Stoll. 7th (if healthy)

If the over/under was set at 4.5 I would likely take the under. Iowa should score a point or two at a lot of the other weights, but we are fighting for 5th place as our ceiling with Mizzou and ASU IMO.
 
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DayHawk18 said:
I'm taking the under on almost all
Click to expand...
I'd say. It is rare for any team to have more than six AA's. To plan on four teams having 7 or more in the same year has a zero percent chance of happening. Only six teams total had 7 or more AA's in the last six years, with two of those having 8. No year had more than two teams with 7 or more AA's.

Then, if you look at the top ten 10 teams at nationals, they combined have produced the following AA's each year:

2017 - 50
2016 - 43
2015 - 45
2014 - 42
2013 - 45
2012 - 44

Not as many as one would think. Even though I believe this year will be more top heavy than most other years, I think it safe to say that there will be considerably fewer AA's at the top than we believe, probably due to our own biases as fans of the top programs.
 
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