91% of betting public taking Iowa but line went from +11.5 to +11, this is a tad bit concerning.
RPI is 92 now after Monday carnage....
- Thread starter Hawkeyestate81
- Start date
It is called TV and Mr Delany's desire to grab as much cash as possible from the TV contracts and having nearly every game in its own TV window. Back when all games were Thurs/Sat or some similar combination, this was not an issue.
Dominating at Maryland gave us the opportunity to get on the bubble with a win at Wisconsin. People are paying attention now, and a win tonight will put us right in the middle of the conversation.
We would have a lot of things working in our favor, young team coming into form, late season surge, huge road wins, winning record in conference.
Of course all of this is only relevant if we finish 10-8 with wins over Wisconsin and Penn St this weekend.
We would have a lot of things working in our favor, young team coming into form, late season surge, huge road wins, winning record in conference.
Of course all of this is only relevant if we finish 10-8 with wins over Wisconsin and Penn St this weekend.
Iowa has benefited from reverse happening in other games this season. With unbalanced conference schedules, teams having byes during the season, etc., you end up with these situations. As long as teams have 2 off days at least between games they should be good to go. Over the course of a season, all teams benefit from having a week off while their opponent has had a game 2-3 days ago. If Iowa loses to Penn State, having 2 fewer days of rest than Penn State shouldn't be an issue.
Bubble teams top 25/50/100 wins:
Xaiver: 1/3/8 Last 4 in
Cal: 0/1/4 Last 4 in
USC: 2/2/5 Last 4 in
Wake Forest: 1/2/7 Last 4 in
Vanderbilt: 1/4/9 1st 4 out
Georgia Tech: 4/4/7 1st 4 out
Rhode Island: 2/2/4 1st 4 out
Kansas State: 2/3/5 1st 4 out
Georgia: 0/1/9 Next 4 out
Illinois: 1/5/9 Next 4 out
Houston: 0/1/3 Next 4 out
Clemson: 0/5/9 Next 4 out
Syracuse: 3/6/8 Last 4 byes
TCU: 0/2/5 Out
Providence: 2/5/10 Last 4 byes
Marquette: 2/7/9 Last 4 byes
Seton Hall: 1/3/9 Last 4 byes
Michigan St: 2/6/11 9 seed
Nevada: 0/0/5 12 seed
Tennessee: 1/2/8 Out
Illinois St: 0/1/2 12 seed
Middle Tenn: 0/2/4 10 seed
Wichita St: 0/1/2 7 seed
UT Arlington: 1/1/2 12 seed
Iowa: 1/4/7 Out
Our top 25 rpi win is Purdue (20). Maryland is 26, and Iowa State is 31. If ISU wins at WV tomorrow they will likely move up close to the 25. Also want Maryland to beat Michigan State at home on Saturday.
On the flip side, a Michigan (47) loss at Nebraska Sunday would knock them out of the top 50. Obviously we need Wisconsin (30) to lose to us and then beat Minnesota and win as much as possible in the BTT.
3 more top 50 wins (Wisconsin, plus two in the BTT) will put us in really go shape. We have to finish 2-0 vs Wisconsin and Penn St. If ISU, Maryland, Michigan, Penn St (94), Indiana (89), and Memphis (108) stay where they are... that would put us at 1/7/11, with a good chance of one or more of those top 50 wins turning into top 25 wins. A 20 win Iowa team with 1-2 top 25 wins, 7 top 50 wins, 2 top 50 road wins, 10-8 conference record, and surging late would be tough to leave out. A lot of the teams ahead of us right now are very meh, and are just begging to be jumped.
Xaiver: 1/3/8 Last 4 in
Cal: 0/1/4 Last 4 in
USC: 2/2/5 Last 4 in
Wake Forest: 1/2/7 Last 4 in
Vanderbilt: 1/4/9 1st 4 out
Georgia Tech: 4/4/7 1st 4 out
Rhode Island: 2/2/4 1st 4 out
Kansas State: 2/3/5 1st 4 out
Georgia: 0/1/9 Next 4 out
Illinois: 1/5/9 Next 4 out
Houston: 0/1/3 Next 4 out
Clemson: 0/5/9 Next 4 out
Syracuse: 3/6/8 Last 4 byes
TCU: 0/2/5 Out
Providence: 2/5/10 Last 4 byes
Marquette: 2/7/9 Last 4 byes
Seton Hall: 1/3/9 Last 4 byes
Michigan St: 2/6/11 9 seed
Nevada: 0/0/5 12 seed
Tennessee: 1/2/8 Out
Illinois St: 0/1/2 12 seed
Middle Tenn: 0/2/4 10 seed
Wichita St: 0/1/2 7 seed
UT Arlington: 1/1/2 12 seed
Iowa: 1/4/7 Out
Our top 25 rpi win is Purdue (20). Maryland is 26, and Iowa State is 31. If ISU wins at WV tomorrow they will likely move up close to the 25. Also want Maryland to beat Michigan State at home on Saturday.
On the flip side, a Michigan (47) loss at Nebraska Sunday would knock them out of the top 50. Obviously we need Wisconsin (30) to lose to us and then beat Minnesota and win as much as possible in the BTT.
3 more top 50 wins (Wisconsin, plus two in the BTT) will put us in really go shape. We have to finish 2-0 vs Wisconsin and Penn St. If ISU, Maryland, Michigan, Penn St (94), Indiana (89), and Memphis (108) stay where they are... that would put us at 1/7/11, with a good chance of one or more of those top 50 wins turning into top 25 wins. A 20 win Iowa team with 1-2 top 25 wins, 7 top 50 wins, 2 top 50 road wins, 10-8 conference record, and surging late would be tough to leave out. A lot of the teams ahead of us right now are very meh, and are just begging to be jumped.
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That's fair but it is a forum and all. I feel as though my comment wasn't at all derogatory towards those speculating but rather just trying to be a voice of reason. It's a fair opinion that the NCAA tournament is enough of a stretch to not even be considered until at least after the Wisconsin game.
Speculate all you want, my man. I'm just saying its best for one's sanity not to at this point. I will be one of the "speculators" if we beat Wiscy tonight, that is for sure. Still a lot of work to do if we win but 0 chance if we don't.
Great analysis and info, thanks for putting together. Yes probably a moot point if we lose tonight but that's what makes March fun! A loss tonight and a deep run in the BTT may have a path to the Dance as well, although the BTT semi's might not do it. Just saw a USA Today bracket that had Iowa among the 'Next 4 Out' and a number of those teams have very 'meh' profiles. Oh man, the Minny, UNO and Debbie games are really hurting right now, 2/3 and we are probably in right now!
I seriously doubt that we get into the NCAA's without winning out, including the BTT. What gets me, however, is listening to the talking heads about the teams they think are on the bubble, some of which have pretty mediocre records and really haven't beaten anybody good.
The bubble is extremely weak this year which is why some are holding out slim hope. It will take some big time breaks to get in but it is definitely possible. Most years we would be fighting tooth and nail to get an NIT bid with our resume and weak (young) conference. Let's win tonight then re-evaluate.
Actually, it's expected to be 74 with a win over Penn St according to LiveRPI which is pretty accurate. Home wins do very little for your RPI, but need the win to keep our RPI where it is and then move it up with some BTT wins.
I am assuming others around them will lose, tons of movement happening but you are right, not much if anything with a W other then they MUST WIN!
Yeah our game vs PSU will do nothing for our RPI.
But Iowa State winning will help it. As will a UNI win. Also there will be some teams lose on Friday & Saturday ahead of us, that will move us up. It could very well be in the 60's before we tip off on Sunday.
Has climbed 2-3 spots a day when we weren't playing and our SOS is in the tip 50 now.
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