I've always thought you had to project minutes by position to really see what numbers for each player were reasonable and where the true competition for minutes was.
An example for this coming season - just using 5 min increments to keep it simple, and capping players at 30 mpg as 35 mpg is unlikely:
PG: Harding 20 mpg, Thelwell 20 mpg - likely will be 25/15 but unclear yet in which direction. No big need to play Dix here very much imo.
SG: Dix 30 mpg, Pryce 10 mpg - Thelwell could play some here also depending on minutes at PG
SF: Payton 30 mpg, Traore 5 mpg, Koch 5 mpg
PF: Dembele 15 mpg, Traore 15 mpg, Tadjo 10 mpg
C: Freeman 25 mpg, Dembele 10 mpg, Mulvey/Brauns/Tadjo 5 mpg
Total MPG:
- Payton, Dix 30 mpg
- Freeman, Dembele 25 mpg - Freeman deserves 30mpg, but foul trouble. Dembele could drop to 20 mpg if other PF's play well.
- Harding, Thelwell, Traore 20 mpg
- Pryce, Tadjo 10 mpg - has more upside, but SG/SF minutes are dominated by 2 of our star players, Tadjo notes below.
- Koch, Mulvey/Brauns 5 mpg (Koch has upside but SF/PF minutes are very tight unless an injury occurs)
A few things become apparent when you do it this way:
- PG role should be by committee as matchups and gameflow could cause minutes to vary between them game by game
- Logjam at PF position for minutes with 4 good players capable, not even including Payton if you move his minutes to SF
- Backup at C a question - seems like Dembele or Tadjo should get minutes here ahead of Mulvey unless we really need his height against a low block post player
My sense of the PF options, in order of preference:
- Dembele 6'8" 250 - a very strong PF who can play some C. Very well rounded game and will show more of it this year. Can space the floor by hitting 3's, has some mid-game face up, can handle it a bit inside the arc to attack off the dribble, and has some post moves. Good rebounder. Not elite at anyone thing, but gets a "B" grade or better on most things. Good but not great athlete. I really like Dembele's game. His weight makes him the best of this group to play backup Center in spots.
- Traore 6'7" 215 - as you can see quite a bit smaller than Dembele, but more athletic. SF role makes sense at his size, but again not a lot of minutes available there with Payton taking 30. Is a bit light at PF but a good rebounder. Can he keep opposing PF's from backing him down or off the offensive glass at only 215? Would be tough in B10 ball. Has an all around game as well but would likely not post up much and be someone who spaces on the perimeter for 3's or attacks off the dribble with his athleticism. Better 3 point shooter than last year's stats show. Very high on him, the question with minutes is whether you can really play him at PF against some teams. On film he plays like 6'8" 230 but he's not that big.
- Koch 6'8" 205 - also very light. Solid but not elite athlete. Elite shooter though - the best of these 4 by far - and top notch skill which Fran values in his offense. Diverse offensive game but unclear at his weight if he will be affected inside the arc by physical play, much like Patrick McCaffrey. He's an experienced baller and I'd guess is very smart and savvy. Can bring him in when we need 3's probably but again SF minutes are limited so he may have to wait for injury to see a lot of court time.
- Tadjo 6'8" 220 - he looks a lot bigger than 220, so wonder if this will get updated. Looks about 230-235. Best athlete in this group just ahead of Traore. Raw offensively, so would be a perimeter screener and score off of rolls to the hoops, or would sit in the dunker's spot and get lobs/drop offs from others driving to the rim and drawing his defender (ie: Harding would be his best friend imo). Great in transition and finishing. Limited face up game and some low post game but not highly refined. Wins with physicality, effort and athleticism mostly, not skill.
