Roughly 5 and will do the same for another 10 years before reevaluating
Stock Pickers thread
- Thread starter bunsen82
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Roughly 5 and will do the same for another 10 years before reevaluating
Add some AMD and I'm with you brother!!!!
If you think an etf going up 33% in a single year is normal without causing any concern, I’m not sure what to tell you.
Yeah I never said anything like that. That graphic is pretty accurate about how people keep saying that a correction is due when there's a small dip and then we see all-time highs once again. I will never pretend to know where the market is headed. I am always cautious.
Your chart says it, upper left hand corner, 33% - while having a mocking statement saying the end is near on each minor pull back. The market could go up another 20% however, the odds of that are very low.
Affirm got the pull back today. Good entry point right now if anyone is watching it. I purchased another 100 shares this morning. I like where it's at. It's long term investment in my opinion.
Jumped in for 25... might add more later this week/next week to average it out.
I'll probably get another 100 shares in week or so as well. That'll get me enough shares for awhile.
FYI - Like Pepper I am not as thrilled about my XIN as I was a couple weeks ago. My trade thesis was, they would report quickly and would be a quick easy score. Everything I have seen says they will report and the reports should be good, however I didn't anticipate Evergrande heavily effecting the real estate market over there in the mean time. XIN is in a completely different part of the country than Evergrande but there could be some cascading effects. The biggest being difficulty in getting new financing. Now they have debt due in October but they should have more than enough money ( they had it on their balance sheet last September). And they should have increased their cash in the meantime. They have just opened up 2 more buildings at their main campus they are building and increase the sale price by 500 yuan per a square meter, which basically means pricing pressure doesn't seem to be effecting them. I have had a decent position, so I will likely be pairing down, but I wanted to be fully transparent on what is occurring. Still a decent bet, but a speculative bet and I wouldn't be putting any major money on it. What would be interesting is if China breaks up Evergrande and then gives a portion to XIN to complete and sell (essentially majorly discounted construction). Have to wait and see.
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Again, I’ve got no view on XIN as I cannot find much of anything to even follow. I’m not a bear on that one, but I’ve consistently highlighted the risks of its balance sheet as that’s one of the few pieces of info I’ve got my hands on…
The WSJ has a story today about Chinese property companies and the debt problems. It specifically mentions XIN as one where bond markets are nervous. I’m not a bond guy so I’m a bit over my skis, but it looks like their instruments maturing in October are trading at 90.6 cents on the dollar. If you guys are true XIN bulls, why not buy those and make 10% in the next month?
The WSJ has a story today about Chinese property companies and the debt problems. It specifically mentions XIN as one where bond markets are nervous. I’m not a bond guy so I’m a bit over my skis, but it looks like their instruments maturing in October are trading at 90.6 cents on the dollar. If you guys are true XIN bulls, why not buy those and make 10% in the next month?
I'm not going to beat a dead horse, but I still have some shares of China Marine Foods in my Portfolio (with a HUGE loss attached to it) that I keep just to remind me not to trust China Stocks and to NEVER, EVER buy them again. Not here to tell people not to, but man did I learn an expensive lesson. Let me use that lesson to teach others I guess.
Don't think I have the access to purchase those on Vanguard, through my broker. Hey Pepper, and honestly I am not giving you a hard time, actually I am acknowledging you. On this one, I focused too hard on the individual company and not enough on what was going on around it. I am always willing to keep my eyes open to the bear argument because I don't want to get caught in a bad trade. I guess the one thing that has benefited me in the past, if I recognize when my thesis is wrong, and am willing to step away. It is what it is. My calls generally work out better, but admit it appears I may have gotten this one wrong.
This one actually exists, and actually does have actually buildings, the Osteen in New York and a couple other new projects in New York. Lets just say I am fairly confident the books are legit and will be taken care of. What I am not as confident in right now is that the chinese real estate market could implode unless China steps in. Would be similar to our crisis in 2008. Sorry not sorry, but I don't want to be around if that happens.
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Im glad you made some money, I just don't want anyone to be a bagholder because of a call I made.
anybody holding the bag quite frankly deserves it based on blindly following a recommendation on the internet. I can tell you know a lot about stock investing so I don’t think you’re “intentionally” giving a bad rec at all, and you’ve been clear you’re not pumping it either. Rather, as you suggest, when the tide is going out, it’s hard to float any higher than the water level and that could be the issue XIN has at the moment.
anecdotally, I’m hearing several “bad” things about the Chinese property market:
1) property taxes may be introduced in 12-24 months. Currently there aren’t any annual property tax bills in China although some cities (Shanghai and Shenzhen) are piloting something (perhaps Hebei Province too). A lot of CCP senior guys have a lot of units they own so introducing property taxes would cause them to have to pay to hold onto these units. Or, they’ll have to sell some apartments to raise cash.
2) apparently Evergrande, Fortune, and some of the other high-profile developers with liquidity / solvency issues are being told they can’t just liquidate finished inventory at any price so that’s also leading to slower clean up of their balance sheets. Hence why bond markets are starting to do what bond markets will do in these situations.
Lets just say the majority was me. I caused most of the run up, I caused most of the downward action. As pepper says when the tides change I don't want to be holding the bag. I significantly reduced my risk, I got a little more to go, but no where near the risk I had walking in today, and I gave you fair warning. I would rather sell at $2 or even $1.80 tomorrow than $1 to $1.20 next week if all hell breaks loose. And that is what it is looking like could happen. So I will likely be selling down to about $1.80 to clean up a majority of the rest of my shares tomorrow with no shame, I will leave about 10,000 -20000 shares on the table. . Here is the other aspect, I was playing as much the short seller position. He should have had 700,000 shares plus short. It appears he did a private transaction with fund, and closed a big chunk of his short position last week. So on Friday he had only 400,000- that threw me for a loop and made me a bit nervous, add in the other articles I was reading with the housing market, I came in with an agenda today to sell a majority of my position. Needless to say If I am owning close more than half of what the short seller has short, I want the short seller to be buying my shares and not someone else's. I took a big bet, and am getting out of it relatively unscathed.
Yes it was me. Look, I've done very well in the market nothing to be ashamed with that. On paper this is a trade that should have done very well. The problem was I was focusing on the health of an individual tree and didn't realize the rest of the forest was burning around it. I screwed up plain and simple. I don't make too many mistakes, but I made a couple with this one- one being not recognizing all of the risks, two was my position size- I let it get too big and I know better than that to make that mistake.
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I started positions in SOFI, KPLT, and DATS today. $15 looks like a good support level for SOFI, hoping to get a gap fill to $16.75, if it doesn't hold support I'll cut. KPLT I got in at $6.11 this morning and DATS at $6.36. KPLT I'm looking to get a daily gap fill to almost 9 on the chart. DATS is coming up on its 40 day quiet period (Sept 22nd). Should see a catalyst or Press Release for DATS shortly after. DATS could be a candidate to get bought out eventually, they create crypted text messaging systems.
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I have a token amount of shares left in XIN 8,000 shares. May let it ride may sell it in the next couple of days if the price bounces back, but my risk is significantly reduced. I may have taken too aggressive of an approach in selling but the risk reward significantly changed in my eyes in the last two weeks. Lost about 4%. Oh well live and learn.
Anyone have insight on $BABA? The chart looks primed for a reversal. Currently at $155.
"Based on 24 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Alibaba in the last 3 months. The average price target is $269.18 with a high forecast of $336.00 and a low forecast of $190.00. The average price target represents a 73.79% change from the last price of $154.89."
"Based on 24 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Alibaba in the last 3 months. The average price target is $269.18 with a high forecast of $336.00 and a low forecast of $190.00. The average price target represents a 73.79% change from the last price of $154.89."
Been falling like a rock the past year. Slowing Chinese economy and less spending... less business for them. This could turn and rise up big... but who knows.
Not sure if I should be the one evaluating a chinese stock 
Positivies - Very good fundamentals, very low PE long term growth prospects. The books follow GAAP accounting. Currently a cheap stock based on fundamentals vs US stocks.
Negatives - Been under the microscope of the Chinese government. Lots of funds dumping Chinese stocks. SEC chairman keeps saying all chinese companies need to open their books to US auditors or they will be delisted within 3 years. You own a V.I.E. - meaning you own a shell company you don't have any rights to any assets in bankruptcy. Chinese economy really slowing and could hit a major pothole with its real estate market.
Its a conundrum. There are some downside risks. I do think many of the risks have been priced in unless china stocks are essentially removed from US trading platforms - due to either the SEC or them moving to an Asian platform. Which currency is going to perform worse in the next 10 years, the Dollar or the Yuan - its a bit of a tossup, China has its own issues, but the growth potential overall leads me to believe the Yuan will be better long term and give a beneficial boost to chinese companies vs U.S. stocks.
Ultimately I think this will be one of the best stocks in the next decade right wrong or indifferent. Charles Munger likes it, gives me some confidence he thinks China stocks will continue to be listed in the US, and whenever the asset bubble in the US begins to crumble, value is going to become a major focus, and I think at that time money will flow back into BABA. I would say a buy, but I am not touching it yet, the selling pressure remains fairly strong and I am going to wait to see what happens to the chinese economy with Evergrandes bankruptcy and whether it is going to cause any cascading effects to the financial sector in China which could cause further issues on the China economy.
Positivies - Very good fundamentals, very low PE long term growth prospects. The books follow GAAP accounting. Currently a cheap stock based on fundamentals vs US stocks.
Negatives - Been under the microscope of the Chinese government. Lots of funds dumping Chinese stocks. SEC chairman keeps saying all chinese companies need to open their books to US auditors or they will be delisted within 3 years. You own a V.I.E. - meaning you own a shell company you don't have any rights to any assets in bankruptcy. Chinese economy really slowing and could hit a major pothole with its real estate market.
Its a conundrum. There are some downside risks. I do think many of the risks have been priced in unless china stocks are essentially removed from US trading platforms - due to either the SEC or them moving to an Asian platform. Which currency is going to perform worse in the next 10 years, the Dollar or the Yuan - its a bit of a tossup, China has its own issues, but the growth potential overall leads me to believe the Yuan will be better long term and give a beneficial boost to chinese companies vs U.S. stocks.
Ultimately I think this will be one of the best stocks in the next decade right wrong or indifferent. Charles Munger likes it, gives me some confidence he thinks China stocks will continue to be listed in the US, and whenever the asset bubble in the US begins to crumble, value is going to become a major focus, and I think at that time money will flow back into BABA. I would say a buy, but I am not touching it yet, the selling pressure remains fairly strong and I am going to wait to see what happens to the chinese economy with Evergrandes bankruptcy and whether it is going to cause any cascading effects to the financial sector in China which could cause further issues on the China economy.
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As an aside, I was talking with Frydaze, I still think its a better than even chance XIN is over $3 within the next week or two, the issue was the risk reward had tilted more that the trade was no longer worth it to me. I have some token shares 8,000, will either do well and cover my loss I took in the stock or basically go to 0. LOL the joys of investing.
Unfortunately Chinese stocks are no longer investable. I got out of all 3 of my Chinese stocks 2 months ago, including BABA.
Peacehawk - the only thing I am going to say is a stock is un-investable until it is not. Reits were left for dead last spring, the stocks are up 300-400%, energy stocks were supposed to be done and un-investable - I started investing in AR stock last year around $2.50 - I sold at $7.50, today it is trading at $17.50. If I had a license to purchase an oil contract and had the storage to hold oil, last year I would have taken a couple oil contracts at $-38 in April. I was actually trying to make some calls to see if there was anyway that you could feasibly do this, or to take the money and paper contract and not take delivery (yeah that would have been messy). By the next week the next contract was selling for $20. It is currently selling for $75. I do think some trend will change, likely the stock bottoming out, and once strong purchasing power starts stepping in you could see FOMO begin to propel the stocks again.
I am 80% cash LOL. I have put my feelings out there pretty strongly what I think of the current valuations. There as 1 major thing I am looking to see, when the tapering begins, what happens to interest rates. I am fully of the belief when tapering starts you are going to get at the minimum a 10% pullback. If interest rates stay below 2% this is my base case. If interest rates begin to rise to 3% to 3.5% Katy bar the door because its going to get ugly. 20-30% downside from current levels.
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Yep. I am in the camp that sees a 10 percent + correction over the next 45 days. Obviously, this is far from certain. I personally sold $200k worth of individual stocks and funds today. Plan to start gradually reinvesting it beginning in December. If it doesn’t go down fine, as this year has been my best return in a decade. And I don’t disagree with you Brunsen. I went heavy into banks and energy last December. I just think China is not the place to be right now.
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ANY has been printing money for me today. URG was a great purchase this morning as well it appears
Do you trade these or hold them? I just don't have the time, with my job, to be a trader. Short time hold sure, trade no.
Has anyone else heard of NNDM - Isreal company, diluted itself into infinity, has a ton of cash on hand, intention is to buy out companies at reasonable valuations, integrate with its software and capabilities. I need to do some more research on it. Someone was saying if they can actually execute could be worth $25 to $30, currently trading for $5.
Is this a similar business model to ANY, looks like they also just agreed to purchase a company. Also appears to be 3D printing. Odd business model but could work.
Is this a similar business model to ANY, looks like they also just agreed to purchase a company. Also appears to be 3D printing. Odd business model but could work.
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Very Interesting transaction by Callaway today. Not sure how that is going to work out. I need to read more into that tonight.
