Stock Pickers thread

[bunsen82]

Fitch downgraded the debt of XIN overnight to CCC from B-

Fitch says in their statement, “the downgrade reflects heightened refinancing risk on Xinyuan’s USD 229 million bonds due in October 2021 and internal control weaknesses”

Appreciate that Pepper. This all comes down to the report, coming out. 229 million is miniscule compared to the amount of revenue that has come in or cash on hand, but have future debt at a CCC doesn't help. Unless Fitch upgrades in a month or two after they report. I ran into a similar issue with debt and downgrades in AR last year. The debt rating agencies appeared to behind on the reporting. I made 175% return on those. If I would have stayed in could have made 500% The reports make the difference, and the longer they don't report there may be more of an issue than just the subsidiary, which could be ominous. I do have a message out to investor relations.

On another side, there is a short that has built up a significant position and appears to be trying to be the market maker. This was on a spike from June and they shorted it down. As of August 13th had a million dollars short, could be close to 1.5 million possibly higher. Any good news and then this could pop.

Only 4% of the shares are held by institutions.

Obviously not reporting on time is an internal weakness. This all comes down to risk reward. There is some risk, there is the potential for a pretty decent reward, especially with such a large short position. I feel confident in my research.

 

[Car-go]

Told you brahs to buy $HUT

 

[peacehawk]

UPST up another 5% today. It ain’t close to done.

 

[bunsen82]

XIN back up to $2.39

 

[HawkMachine]

UPST up another 5% today. It ain’t close to done.

What’s the scoop? Has a PE of 375!

 

[HawkMachine]

Told you brahs to buy $HUT

I saw that. Dang. Probs too late to jump in.

 

[bunsen82]

Silver sure took off today.

 

[bunsen82]

XIN ended the week at $2.32. I originally recommended at $2.05. Up 13% on the week.

 

[bunsen82]

So I knew when the subsidiary was going to report, I am grasping at straws guessing when XIN will report. At the very least the annual report has to finished by October 31st. If they were having issues with their auditor they would have had to disclose that and switch auditors. Thus I have no concerns that it will not report on time (6 months late). Technically they will not need the audited subsidiary information for the quarterlies so there is an outside shot they could report next week. The subsidiary has to report everything by the end of September. I could see them waiting until October,, and if they did I would hope they would do it at the beginning of the month and not the end of the month Price action could get rough. In any case the reports should be stellar, and getting either 7.5, 15, or 30 cents as a dividend will be nice, but also increase the price for those trying to capture to dividend. $3 to $3.50 is still my target price for A short term trade Although the probability it gets to $4 or $5 is higher due to large short seller, pushing close to $2 million short by my calc, the longer this goes the more shares he can repurchase back. I will likely pull out halve or 2/3rds and sell calls on the rest. Likely $5 call, try to get $6 return for a little more than $2 investment in about 10 month investment window, then can roll the calls to try to capture long term gains. I know pepper is skeptical but even Pepper admits it is very very cheap. The reports need to be solid and they can’t ever report late again. Even still a potential 200% return is worth the risk. The only crappy things on the dividend is 1/4 of a cent of the dividend is paid to the servicer, so hopefully the dividend is essentially 1 dividend and not 3 separate dividends.

 

[bunsen82]

Here is a great synopsis on Gopro. As a note, I have been following Robert for about the last year. His ideas have been very good overall. I general pick and choose the stocks I like and they generally are his high conviction plays like Gopro. I do agree its prospects in the next couple years are very good.

 

[bunsen82]

If someone can find up to date short shares on XIN I would appreciate that. I can only see the short interest twice a month and it doesn't appear the August 31st info is up yet.

 

[bunsen82]

One other post I want to do today, is it was discussed earlier but what is everyone's position on uranium miners, CCJ and a few others. I think they have moved too fast this year and there will be a pullback, but I think there is a really good opportunity in the next decade and will likely be starting a position here in the next few months.

 

[Car-go]

One other post I want to do today, is it was discussed earlier but what is everyone's position on uranium miners, CCJ and a few others. I think they have moved too fast this year and there will be a pullback, but I think there is a really good opportunity in the next decade and will likely be starting a position here in the next few months.

Agreed. I wasn’t sure who to pick but bought some LIT which is a lithium miner ETF

 

[peacehawk]

What’s the scoop? Has a PE of 375!

UPST is getting a huge amount of banks and credit unions using their AI lending platform technology. Much more to come. It’s up another 7.5% today. This is actually a long term buy and hold. If you see any pullback I would get in. This stock will be one of the biggest winners over the next 3 years. I also bought more TSLA last week. I will be shocked if it’s not at 900 by end of the year.

 

[bunsen82]

UPST is getting a huge amount of banks and credit unions using their AI lending platform technology. Much more to come. It’s up another 7.5% today. This is actually a long term buy and hold. If you see any pullback I would get in. This stock will be one of the biggest winners over the next 3 years. I also bought more TSLA last week. I will be shocked if it’s not at 900 by end of the year.

I can agree with you on UPST, although I don't know much about them, there is a better chance TSLA is below $500 by the end of the year than over $900 in my humble opinion. I will say the owners of that stock are true believers, but I don't see any way it will be a major player in the car industry and even if it does, its PE will need to get in the 10-20 PE range. That is generally the PE for vehicle manufacturers. Little upside to TSLA in my opinion.

 

[frydaze]

View embedded media

Here is a great synopsis on Gopro. As a note, I have been following Robert for about the last year. His ideas have been very good overall. I general pick and choose the stocks I like and they generally are his high conviction plays like Gopro. I do agree its prospects in the next couple years are very good.

bunsen turned me on to Robert's YouTube updates and this guy is no doubt very sharp.

 

[peacehawk]

I can agree with you on UPST, although I don't know much about them, there is a better chance TSLA is below $500 by the end of the year than over $900 in my humble opinion. I will say the owners of that stock are true believers, but I don't see any way it will be a major player in the car industry and even if it does, its PE will need to get in the 10-20 PE range. That is generally the PE for vehicle manufacturers. Little upside to TSLA in my opinion.

I understand where you are coming from but when I first bought Tesla 18 months ago, I viewed it as half auto company, half technology company. Nothing that has happened since has changed my perspective. I think that is the consensus of most Tesla stock investors, including the majority of institutional investors. Thus using a 10-20 PE isn’t a valid basis as to whether it is overpriced.

 

[Sooner-Be-Dead]

I understand where you are coming from but when I first bought Tesla 18 months ago, I viewed it as half auto company, half technology company. Nothing that has happened since has changed my perspective. I think that is the consensus of most Tesla stock investors, including the majority of institutional investors. Thus using a 10-20 PE isn’t a valid basis as to whether it is overpriced.

How about a 390 p/e?

 

[bunsen82]

How about a 390 p/e?

Exactly it is overvalued. Its earnings are going to have to grow 26 times, to just be on an equivalent PE to Ford and GE. Just because they use a battery and are labeled technology, doesn't change the fact they are still making vehicles. Yes he has been an aspirational leader, it is still overvalued. Now I will admit I have made the same statements about Amazon being overvalued, but they have finally grown into their PE and it is currently in the 30 range.

 

[frydaze]

What's everyone's view of Ford. Buy more on the pull back?

The just raided AAPL for a top flight exec today and Foley has been remarkable since being there a short time too. Back under $13/share again.

 

[bunsen82]

What's everyone's view of Ford. Buy more on the pull back?

The just raided AAPL for a top flight exec today and Foley has been remarkable since being there a short time too. Back under $13/share again.

Ford should be good, especially once the chip situation starts to get straightened out.

 

[peacehawk]

Exactly it is overvalued. Its earnings are going to have to grow 26 times, to just be on an equivalent PE to Ford and GE. Just because they use a battery and are labeled technology, doesn't change the fact they are still making vehicles. Yes he has been an aspirational leader, it is still overvalued. Now I will admit I have made the same statements about Amazon being overvalued, but they have finally grown into their PE and it is currently in the 30 range.

You know many people on this board were saying Tesla was overvalued in Feb 2020 when I bought it at 170. It closed today at over 752. If you think Tesla is the same type of company as F or GM, great…..I don’t. Also, VWAGY has more upside than Ford. Regardless, the big money still to be made is UPST. It’s a game changer.

 

[bunsen82]

You know many people on this board were saying Tesla was overvalued last Feb when I bought it at 170. It closed today at over 752. If you think Tesla is the same type of company as F or GM, great…..I don’t. Also, VWAGY has more upside than Ford. Regardless, the big money still to be made is UPST. It’s a game changer.

Thats why they call it a market - however realize you are also going against Michael Burry, its not a nail in the coffin, but lets just say if interest rates hit 4% or higher, there will be no way TSLA will still be at a PE of 390.

 

[Funky Bunch]

FWIW, TSLA's forward P/E is 190

 

[bunsen82]

FWIW, TSLA's forward P/E is 190

Good it’s still sky high at 4% interest it will need to be in the 50-60 range, and once Ford catches up margins will decrease.

 

[NDallasRuss]

This was not a good stock picking day for me!

I'm down for the day more than the market as a whole, which I figure is probably not a great thing.

 

[hawkeyez]

If someone can find up to date short shares on XIN I would appreciate that. I can only see the short interest twice a month and it doesn't appear the August 31st info is up yet.

This is what I'm seeing on TD Ameritrade (not sure how current it is)

Short Interest​

August 2021
Current Month 529.8K
Previous Month 463.2K
Percent of Float 0.81%
Days to Cover 7.4978 Days

0.81% of float is extremely low

 

[B1GDeal]

Yeah, today sucked.

 

[peacehawk]

Meanwhile UPST up another 11.63 or 4.4%.

 

[B1GDeal]

Meanwhile UPST up another 11.63 or 4.4%.

You have been on point with this, but I just fear jumping in now.

 

[NDallasRuss]

You have been on point with this, but I just fear jumping in now.

I agree. At the current stock price ($274), it seems it's higher than the median target price ($230).

Still lower than the high-end target ($300) though.

UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates & Rating – WSJ

Upstart Holdings Inc. analyst ratings, historical stock prices, earnings estimates & actuals. UPST updated stock price target summary.

www.wsj.com

UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Upstart Holdings Inc. analyst estimates, including UPST earnings per share estimates and analyst recommendations.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[frydaze]

Meanwhile UPST up another 11.63 or 4.4%.

Kudos to you! You've done well on this one peacehawk!

 

[Funky Bunch]

Meanwhile UPST up another 11.63 or 4.4%.

I'm getting Shopify vibes from this stock. Bought a little today and will add on a dip

 

[frydaze]

It was a tough day for me too overall.

Bright spot for me was picking up more ABBV which is a call Cramer has made twice in the past 5 days in buying much more on the dip. Up 1.22% today.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

What's everyone's view of Ford. Buy more on the pull back?

The just raided AAPL for a top flight exec today and Foley has been remarkable since being there a short time too. Back under $13/share again.

Destined for bankruptcy.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Destined for bankruptcy.

View embedded media

I do hope we've figured out something better than gas powered cars and made it mainstream by 2035. That doesn't seem like an overly aggressive goal.

(I really hope it's a flying car!)

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Thats why they call it a market - however realize you are also going against Michael Burry, its not a nail in the coffin, but lets just say if interest rates hit 4% or higher, there will be no way TSLA will still be at a PE of 390.

What will PE be after this upcoming Q? and next? Let me give you a hint. They will beat expectations in Q3 and Q4. They don’t even have Austin and Berlin producing cars yet.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Good it’s still sky high at 4% interest it will need to be in the 50-60 range, and once Ford catches up margins will decrease.

Hint: Ford will never catch up.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Hint: Ford will never catch up.

I don't know. I'm not an expert at all - to be sure. I do think that Ford has been trying to adapt and change, rather than digging in. They ditched several traditional cars that sucked. They have the e-mustang. They still have tons of cred. I wouldn't be surprised to see them dump a bunch of resources into poaching talent from other companies and taking a place in electric cars. I especially could see then developing an F150 that beats the Tesla truck and becomes the standard.

Now, whether that's enough to help them get rid of the albatross that is decades of bad union contracts so that something like 40% of the cost of every new vehicle isn't going to pay for retiree pensions, I don't know.

 

[frydaze]

I don't know. I'm not an expert at all - to be sure. I do think that Ford has been trying to adapt and change, rather than digging in. They ditched several traditional cars that sucked. They have the e-mustang. They still have tons of cred. I wouldn't be surprised to see them dump a bunch of resources into poaching talent from other companies and taking a place in electric cars. I especially could see then developing an F150 that beats the Tesla truck and becomes the standard.

Now, whether that's enough to help them get rid of the albatross that is decades of bad union contracts so that something like 40% of the cost of every new vehicle isn't going to pay for retiree pensions, I don't know.

I praise Ford for making a strong effort in moving into the future with mind wide open philosophies and making some big-time hires. I happen to think that they will achieve much greater success-- whether it hits the levels some project I don't know, but it's clear they have a more aggressive attitude than maybe ever and that will be a huge benefit. I got in on Ford at $7 when Cramer called for a full court press with it and here it is-- closing in on doubling that entry mark for me at least.