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The most wonderful time of the year...

Aardvark86

HR Heisman
Jan 23, 2018
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SCOTUS opinions at 10. Something on the order of 28-30 opinions to go this month. Whatcha got?

I'm going to go 1A kinda day with Vidal, and Moody/Netchoice. Of course, these are just predictions I'm just pulling out of my ass.
 
OK, we've got a boring bkr case from Soto, unanimous, in which Alito recused. She may be nearing the end of her majority opinions for the year. [Alito, Thomas Roberts on deck...]

Now Thomas, unanimously, with Connolly (boring tax). FWIW, somewhat less likely now he would write the abortion pill decision.

And now Becerra/San Carlos Apache from the Chief. Gorsuch happy as Indians win one for a change. But more boring stuff.
 
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Is it time to go to the Jersey shore and hang a flag upside down and create immunity for the POTUS?
 
OK, we've got a boring bkr case from Soto, unanimous, in which Alito recused. She may be nearing the end of her majority opinions for the year. [Alito, Thomas Roberts on deck...]

Now Thomas, unanimously, with Connolly (boring tax). FWIW, somewhat less likely now he would write the abortion pill decision.

And now Becerra/San Carlos Apache from the Chief. Gorsuch happy as Indians win one for a change. But more boring stuff.
I think the Becerra case is important. The People shouldn't have to sue to get what Congress has allocated to them, or to fight the US Government for self determination. It's no secret I'm a fan of Gorsuch, and I'm glad his philosophy supports The People.
 
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Alliance for hippocratic medicine - no standing; unanimous by Kav.

Right call, and perhaps (wishful thinking) a first step toward slowing the number of phony plaintiffs out there.

Interesting Thomas concurrence, in which he argues that associational standing doctrine has become unmoored. See previous sentence.

Vidal - Trump too Small trademark rejection upheld, unanimously, but with like 5 opinions.

Starbucks - nlrb has to live by the same injunction standards as everyone else, not abbreviated ones. Perhaps the first shot in the coming barrage of admin law opinions this term.
 
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The justices seem wary of a large number of cases getting pumped at them from a one man show out in West Texas.
yep, they're definitely on to that, and frankly, to the group upstairs from him. while I'm not quite in the 'no associational standing' camp of justice thomas, the fundamental problem with a lot of these cases is that the plaintiffs are often complete fictions. there is literally no one involved whose ox is being gored, and the 'client' is actually the lawyer.

We all like to yammer on about open access to the courts, but this has been the irrational endpoint of the advocacy lit that emerged in the 60s and 70s. Indeed, consider Jon Turley's predecessor at GW, John Banzhaf. The 'grade' in Banzhaf's 'public advocacy' course essentially consisted of the lawsuit the students had to conceive and bring, one of which was US v SCRAP.
 
SCOTUS issued an emergency ruling, permanent injunction I think, against the ATF enforcing new pistol grip rule. 9-0
 
SCOTUS issued an emergency ruling, permanent injunction I think, against the ATF enforcing new pistol grip rule. 9-0
Who knows what the case is, but perhaps not a bad time to lay money that we get the bump stocks case tomorrow?
 
OK, weve started the day with a boring bankruptcy opinion from KBJ. Gorsuch with a colorful intro to his dissent:

"What’s a constitutional wrong worth these days? The Court’s answer today seems to be: not much. Between 2018 and 2020, the government charged fees to bankruptcy debtors that varied arbitrarily from region to region, leaving some debtors millions of dollars worse off than others. Two years ago, we held that this geographically discriminatory treatment violated the Constitution’s Bankruptcy Clause—a provision that, we stressed, was not “toothless.” Siegel v. Fitzgerald, 596 U. S. 464, 468 (2022). Today, however, the Court performs a remedial root canal, permitting the government to keep the cash it extracted from its unconstitutional fee regime."

Now, Alito with Campos-Chavez (immigration).

Aaand...ooooh, bumpstocks from Thomas (which is curious given i'd expected the chevron cases to precede it)
 
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OK, the bump stocks case is actually really interesting. My recollection was that the agency had invoked Chevron deference, and frankly the expectation for a couple of years had been that it was going to be the bump stocks rule that led to the demise of Chevron. Interestingly though, none of the opinions contains any reference to it whatsoever. Instead, the analysis is strictly textual, a la Chevron step one (if the statute is clear on its face, that is the end of the matter). This is Very similar to a drug pricing case a few years back, where Kav wrote the opinion and likewise did not even reference Chevron, leading me to chuckle that it had become the case that shall not be named and was effectively dead even if the justices had not said as much.

But here's where it gets curious for those who like tea leaves. The Chevron cases (Relenteless and Loper Bright) are now the only cases left in the January term, and the justices who've not written from that term are the Chief, Kav, and Kagan. Now I'm starting to wonder whether we might get an opinion from Kav (who'd sorta been both my betting favorite and my hoped for favorite - because he tends to write helpful opinions - to write it anyway) that kicks the can down the road yet again.
 
Gorsuch demonstrates the most purity in Campos Chavez by concurring with the dissent.

I'm as much for immigration enforcement as anyone, but the Feds need to follow the law as written. In other words, they need to do their F**king job.

In one case we have an agency inventing regulations (pistol grip and bump stock) that are in effect new laws they can begin to enforce. In another case there's actually existing & clear regulations (notice to appear) that aren't being enforced. Who is responsible for this mess?
 
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OK, the bump stocks case is actually really interesting. My recollection was that the agency had invoked Chevron deference, and frankly the expectation for a couple of years had been that it was going to be the bump stocks rule that led to the demise of Chevron. Interestingly though, none of the opinions contains any reference to it whatsoever. Instead, the analysis is strictly textual, a la Chevron step one (if the statute is clear on its face, that is the end of the matter). This is Very similar to a drug pricing case a few years back, where Kav wrote the opinion and likewise did not even reference Chevron, leading me to chuckle that it had become the case that shall not be named and was effectively dead even if the justices had not said as much.

Yes but the Court noted the ATF’s historical interpretations and change of interpretation without specifically referring to Chevron. Pg 3.
 
OK, boys and girls, two opinion days this week. Whatcha got? Four categories - here are my picks...

In the boring category, I'm going with the Armed Career Criminal Act case from March (BTW, the ACCA seems to spawn Scotus cases like no other statute, which is probably a good sign it needs legislative attention).
In the should be boring but perceived as sexy due to the parties, I'm going with Harrington (the Purdue Pharma bankruptcy case about the release of non-bankrupt parties).
In the sexy to regulatory lawyers such as myself category, I'm going with Jarkesy (SEC enforcement, jury trial, appointments clause mishmash).
In the sexy category (and truth be told, this is really a pretty un-sexy term on the whole), I'll go with the 1A cases Moody and NetChoice.
 
OK, boys and girls, two opinion days this week. Whatcha got? Four categories - here are my picks...

In the boring category, I'm going with the Armed Career Criminal Act case from March (BTW, the ACCA seems to spawn Scotus cases like no other statute, which is probably a good sign it needs legislative attention).
In the should be boring but perceived as sexy due to the parties, I'm going with Harrington (the Purdue Pharma bankruptcy case about the release of non-bankrupt parties).
In the sexy to regulatory lawyers such as myself category, I'm going with Jarkesy (SEC enforcement, jury trial, appointments clause mishmash).
In the sexy category (and truth be told, this is really a pretty un-sexy term on the whole), I'll go with the 1A cases Moody and NetChoice.

Guessing the two 1A cases and hoping the Court doesn’t mess them up.
 
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Whoa! Moore, from Kavanaugh. this ought to be interesting. G wins, but it's going to be key to read the limits. Bottom line is limited to facts where income had been apportioned to downstream entities that hadn't been taxed, and court does not resolve whether income must be distributed/realized to be taxed.

Chiavarini - fourth amendment from kagan. malicious prosecution suit on baseless charge A caused by seizure in violation of 4a not defeated by simultaneous charge b for which there was probable cause to charge.

Diaz - justice thomas evidentiary rules. meth mule case involving expert testimony that most mules know they're mules, which is ok since it doesn't go to intent, which sounds sorta weird. 6-3 with jackson concurring and gorsuch dissenting.

and...Gonzalez, per curiam. Another crim pro case. pissing match; fifth circuit screwed up in malicious prosecution case. four other opinions - they're all over the place here other than as to the result.
 
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Whoa! Moore, from Kavanaugh. this ought to be interesting. G wins, but it's going to be key to read the limits. Bottom line is limited to facts where income had been apportioned to downstream entities that hadn't been taxed, and court does not resolve whether income must be distributed/realized to be taxed.

Chiavarini - fourth amendment from kagan. malicious prosecution suit on baseless charge A caused by seizure in violation of 4a not defeated by simultaneous charge b for which there was probable cause to charge.
Moore is an interesting read. Everyone agrees, and Barrett emphasizes in her opinion, that unrealized capital gains aren't part of this decision. The majority is simply saying that corporate income must be paid either by the corporation itself, or by the shareholders if the corporation doesn't pay.
 
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Moore is an interesting read. Everyone agrees, and Barrett emphasizes in her opinion, that unrealized capital gains aren't part of this decision. The majority is simply saying that corporate income must be paid either by the corporation itself, or by the shareholders if the corporation doesn't pay.
probably the opinion i'm most likely to read of today's batch.

See you all tomorrow - same bat time, same bat thread! (BTW, once again, I am o-fer in my predictions, but I think my odds are improving as we go forward. I think there's still something like 16 opinion (18 cases) likely)
 
Diaz is interesting. I'm with the dissent, and Gorsuch on this one. I'm with Gorsuch on his interpretation of the law, and also because I personally bristle at the notion that somebody can say "most people" think or behave in a certain way, so that notion should apply to everyone. I suspect Gorsuch feels that way from a personal standpoint too.
 
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probably the opinion i'm most likely to read of today's batch.

See you all tomorrow - same bat time, same bat thread! (BTW, once again, I am o-fer in my predictions, but I think my odds are improving as we go forward. I think there's still something like 16 opinion (18 cases) likely)
I think the majority wanted to take unrealized capital gains off the table as a future tax option. I was a bit surprised at the opinion because oral arguments barely touched the basis for the opinion. I was also surprised at how much attention was shown to taking out the unrealized capital gains from the decision, and saying 16A doesn't allow unrealized capital gains.
 
yep, they're definitely on to that, and frankly, to the group upstairs from him. while I'm not quite in the 'no associational standing' camp of justice thomas, the fundamental problem with a lot of these cases is that the plaintiffs are often complete fictions. there is literally no one involved whose ox is being gored, and the 'client' is actually the lawyer.

We all like to yammer on about open access to the courts, but this has been the irrational endpoint of the advocacy lit that emerged in the 60s and 70s. Indeed, consider Jon Turley's predecessor at GW, John Banzhaf. The 'grade' in Banzhaf's 'public advocacy' course essentially consisted of the lawsuit the students had to conceive and bring, one of which was US v SCRAP.
How do you feel, or think the court feels, about the slew of cases coming from Louisiana’s decision to put the 10 Commandments inside of classrooms? In Dobbs they seemed to signal to states it was open season on settled law.
 
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How do you feel, or think the court feels, about the slew of cases coming from Louisiana’s decision to put the 10 Commandments inside of classrooms? In Dobbs they seemed to signal to states it was open season on settled law.
I don't see it as being like Dobbs. I see it as perhaps more like Masterpiece Cakeshop, the Philly adoption case, and the redistricting cases. By that, I mean that there'll be an opinion that sort of makes reference to the permissibility of doing things on 'neutral' bases, which really won't be that novel as a legal proposition, and that also contains some language about the impermissibility of things being "animated by religious motivation". My prediction as to outcome, vaguely alluded to in the other thread and again akin to Cakeshop, will be that they'll be too polite to call the state legislature out in so many words in the first go-round, but will say enough to raise questions about how stupidly Louisiana went about this (which I'm sure was pretty stupid), and will remand with directions to consider the record in light of the decision (which will be fairly clear in terms of its "between the lines" message). But of course, it's the fifth circuit, so it'll come back again in a few years, and they'll spank them then.
 
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the-new-phonebooks-here-phonebook.gif
 
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SCOTUS opinions at 10. Something on the order of 28-30 opinions to go this month. Whatcha got?

I'm going to go 1A kinda day with Vidal, and Moody/Netchoice. Of course, these are just predictions I'm just pulling out of my ass.




Gonna be some serious whiplash when they reverse course on their traditional "tough on crime" stances...
 
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yeah, it doesn't work quite that simplistically, and fwiw, if i were to 'categorize' trump's case, i'd probably not slot it into the normal crim pro bucket.

It belongs in the normal criminal bucket, because what he did was not any form of "legitimate Presidential action".

Yet, the conservatives on the Supreme Court want to expand the case into that, for some unknown (actually, quite well known and understood) reason.

All they have to rule on are the illegitimate actions taken, and allow that to be litigated in court, because that is not a remotely close call.
 
It belongs in the normal criminal bucket, because what he did was not any form of "legitimate Presidential action".

Yet, the conservatives on the Supreme Court want to expand the case into that, for some unknown (actually, quite well known and understood) reason.

All they have to rule on are the illegitimate actions taken, and allow that to be litigated in court, because that is not a remotely close call.
i'll make a deal with you joe. whenever the opinion comes out, whatever it says, neither of us will view it through rose colored glasses.
 
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aaaaagh! blog crapped out on me, but we've got tx v new mexico from Kjb. water rights with a federalism overlay; us gets to object to consent settlement

Munoz (immigration), from Barrett.. denial of spousal visa on nat sec grounds; no fundamental right to spousal visa

Erlinger, from gorsuch. my favorite statute - armed career criminal act. joe will be dismayed that the court ruled for the defendant. I will never cease to be amazed at how much litigation can arise out of the question of how one counts to three.

smith v arizona, kagan - confrontation clause, in what sounds like a case only a trial lawyer could love

and finally, rahimi from the chief (2A, denial of permit based on civil protective order). yes, the G can ban possession by someone subject to an order. Sorry Hunter, no soup for you.
 
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