I don’t know if you are aware, but a lot of Amish have been registered to vote.
[sarcasm]
The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
[sarcasm]
You may not realize just how funny this is to me, as I grew up in south central pa.
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Bigly news for Trump. He just recieved an endorsement from his favorite band:
Runs N' Loses
Runs N' Loses
In what universe did I say anything of the sort? Literally when did I say such a thing? I'm not Trump or MAGA fan. They are doing what they always do.
I'm just handicapping the race which I think is back to a coin flip. I'm reading the tea leaves with what Harris and surrogates are saying, and guessing what that means they are seeing/thinking - that they hit their ceiling basically, and they will need to win on the margins with turnout of their own base.
Trump has had a ceiling for a long time, that's news to nobody. He's basically been in that mode forever, and it seems to be working for him, R enthusiasm looks pretty high so far, and he's won some of the few skeptical Rs remaining.
It's probably the right move for Kamala as well, since she's (like Trump) a horrible candidate, and the idea she was ever going to win over center-right independents or moderate-ish Republicans was probably wishful thinking. They both have a very hard ceiling which is going to prevent either from winning comfortably unless they can out turn-out the other.
There are so so many bad fundamentals that she has to overcome. But she still might do it, because of Trump.
Yes, bases always need firing up to get them to the voting booth.
He can't win on the margins. Reasonable people reject him. He wins by getting as many of his army to show up as possible.
"You guys" are all of you who think when the GOP does something repugnant it hurts them. This is old-school, pre-Trump thinking.
There is a better chance of democracy ending if Harris wins; because that is when MAGA, particularly at the state level, will fight to overturn the results. And it will make 1/6 look like a small town Iowa Caucus.
A buddy of mine was flying from North Carolina to Lexington, KY yesterday late afternoon. He texted me during the flight that guy next to him was reading some sort of article on Breitbart about how to prepare for civil war.
Flipping crazy-ass shit.
Yep, there's no clear way to read it, even the experts speculate with extreme caution. Absentee ballots are also at a fraction of the previous obviously.
There is zero guarantee that it is actually adding to the R total, if it's just shifting voters early. There are ways to read it that are not positive for Rs, but I'm not sure there's a way to read it that is negative for Rs. It doesn't indicate anything, but I think if you're Rs you would much rather see the much higher % of early voting than not, right?
Same think, if you're the Ds looking at R early votes, you don't necessarily have to be disheartened, but you sure would rather it was a big D advantage like usual. You could would rather the Rs had a huge deficit to make up on election day than not.
I think there is a non-zero chance that R enthusiasm is much greater than anyone is thinking. And I don't even think it higher Trump enthusiasm, but I think Rs are probably more motivated to vote AGAINST this ticket than they were to vote against Biden, Obama or even Hilary Clinton.
Sadly, no. As a minority, I have to prepare for the shitstorm.
I have heard many Trump skeptical Republicans that hate listening to him in debates, hate him in rallys, admit they actually found him somewhat engaging in these formats. To me it seems hard to imagine any (besides MAYBE Rogan) being big enough to move the needle that much, but it's possible I'm wrong.
Vote in this poll please.
iowa.forums.rivals.com
Are you voting for your party's nominee for President?
With numbers of early voters being shared by party affiliation, I though it would be interesting to find out how much party registration reflects Presidential choice this year. I left independents off because they don't have their own candidate, I hope your are willing to share your choice in...
iowa.forums.rivals.com
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Actually, the fundamentals would indicate a landslide for the incumbent party in the White House.
The only reason Trump is in it is due to his unique ability to bring out typical non-voters, in a handful of states.
It would also help if people on here would admit what any high level Democratic strategists have no problem admitting. That Kamala is a very bad candidate, she is an incumbent of a historically unpopular administration, she is unfortunately married to many ideas that are deeply unpopular outside the very narrow white college educated liberal cohort, and it's not enough.
And also a very weird phenomenon, which is under-analyzed in my opinion, of people feeling highly negative about a fairly strong economy.
The Democrats are on the wrong side of almost everything that is being talked about EXCEPT abortion, and even that has limits, considering that Trump isn't pushing for a national ban. They have not been able to make things like health care, tax cuts for the rich, education, environment...things they usually do well on, they just can't center those things. They are stuck with deeply deeply unpopular policies from a few years ago like gender, DEI, policing, border asylum, green new deal, etc that just don't play with most of America. It's ok to admit it, actual Democratic strategists that care about winning elections know they are up against this issue. It's funny how many of you can't admit that there is a policy problem at play here.
The only other thing they win on is which candidate is a criminal lunatic. And they win strongly. Their entire case hinges on how scared a voter is of Trump. They are dependent on the "I disagree with everything she stands for and supports, but I'm afraid Trump will destroy America" and it's just going to be tough. People are not as scared as others think they should be.
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Counterpoint - she is not a rapist and convicted felon.
If you need anything more than that to guide your choice, you are an anti-American idiot.
I don’t disagree but there’s a paradox here. If it won’t happen if she loses, why bring it up. On the other hand, if it's worth happening if she loses, why wouldn't people be advocating prepping?
Obviously I don’t think representative democracy ends if either of them wins.
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Biden and Trump were essentially a battle of 2 unpopular incumbents. Both were in the 40s for average approval rating. Trump was particularly dismal at 34% at the end his term.
I bet you guess about a lot of things that turn out to be wrong. Or you just like to throw insulting crap against the wall when you got nothin else.
You're not the first person to raise this point. Which may explain, as contended by @artradley, that the MSG event was intended to "fire up the base" and drive turn-out by what I've heard described as "low propensity voters."
And, before anyone gets their underwear twisted, the term "propensity" refers to "frequency," not to mental capabilities.
Yep, that is the Democratic gambit. Trust that people are more upset that he paid hush money to a porn star than crimes by illegal immigrants.
Definitely a good idea to bank it all on that, rather than run a more competent candidate or align on the issues. It might work.
But it makes me laugh, because their isn't one of you progressives that would vote for Ron Desantis even if he was running against Jared from Subway. Trying to get people to vote against their policy interests based on character has been difficult for a very long time.
Trump is such an extreme level of garbage person that it may well work.
If you could kindly point out why you lumped me into this group, it would be most welcome.
That may be, but it seems like he would have "fired up the base" in a swing state where he actually has a chance of winning.
With that result I would expect to see a reenactment of the Summer of Love riots...
I voted last Tuesday and left the top of the ballot blank. Didn’t vote for either one. I don’t need to justify it. I don’t need approval or criticism. I don’t need 💩 from trolls, bots, angry leftists or subpar intelligentsia trying to stir up trouble.
IDGAF.
You vote how you want. I don’t care.
Plenty of people in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina were paying attention to the event.
I'm just not convinced that DT Barnum's "base" isn't already excited. (Yeah, I know - double negative in that sentence) My feeling is that he needs to convince enough of those who didn't vote for him in 2020 to flip back. The grouping of voters who didn't really like Biden but were willing to vote for him because of the flipping "horse in a hospital" experience from 2016 to 2020.
I've read a lot about his base "capping out" at 40-42%. He needs another 6% to 9% of the electorate to gain the win.
The MSG event certainly didn't try to target the latter group; it targeted those who are already enthusiastic supporters. If you are pandering to those who already virulently support you, what does that say about voter turnout concerns?
Exactly, wildly unpopular failed administrations.
How about this, I look at the polling data say of independants they will break between 2 to 1 to 3 to 1 to democrats. If republicans, have 10% vote for democrat or even 3 % democrat this changes immensely.
You would be wrong. I achieved a rate of 8 to 1 when I practiced. And I don't get to control the facts.
The facts here are Trump is POS and you claim not to support him, yet you do everything possible defend him and his simpletons.
Go have another mimosa
I certainly respect "none of the above" voters a million times more than Trump voters. F@ck them.
Any polling suggesting Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were anything close to "almost certainly" going blue would be contrary to what Plouffe has been saying for more than a month.
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Character matters.
Republicans are championing a criminal sexual deviant. It's disgusting.
You’re getting more clueless and frustrated by the minute Jim. That’s all you got?
PS - I don’t drink…
Take the L kiddo.
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How do you figure, that is completely opposite of history? Trump has tried to overturn elections, and is already talking about stolen elections, are you really that obtuse?
