I’m no man. 😉
I’m a Republican woman with a college degree who did vote for Amendment 4 here in FL (AKA the MYOB Amendment) but I did not choose either Candidate for Prez.
Don’t call me a liar. Please.
The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
I’m a Republican woman with a college degree who did vote for Amendment 4 here in FL (AKA the MYOB Amendment) but I did not choose either Candidate for Prez.
Don’t call me a liar. Please.
More republicans are voting early. That is fairly evident. Amazing what happens when your Nominee is not bashing early voting. What is also evident, there appears to be just as much momentum if not more for Democrats, its just many more feel comfortable voting either in early voting or election day than by paper ballot in 2020. I think there will be more votes than even the 2020 election.
In 2016, the polling didn't capture the "hidden Trump voters".
I'm hoping that in 2024 the polling isn't capturing the women and young people that will be driven by the abortion issue.
If I was still a Republican, I'd be advocating hard against Trump. Just me. But I also swore an oath to the Constitution. I'm guessing you don't care about that
Yep. And it appears that Harris has so far gotten the most early votes in Florida.
Art is either being daft or showing his true colors. I laugh at the clowns on here wishing this race were close. It isn't. It has never been.
Last edited:
They didn't show up. Then in 2020, he didn't perform nearly as well as in 2016. In 2024, pollsters are reporting much higher percentages of republicans participating in polls, which may actually be overstating the number of republican voters. My stance is republicans are taking the approach of trying to participate in polls at a higher rate, and have the betting odds, to claim the election was stolen again. That is my base case right now. The only thing going against that is a few prominent investors claiming their data is showing a close race that is leaning towards Trump. I still don't see it that way, but we will know in a week. IEM is finally starting to get a tad closer. Trump 20 cents and Harris 80 cents.
Jimmy. Come on man. @goldmom has stated many times she's not voting for Trump. I think it's ok for you to take her word on it. When you say things like, "I'm guessing you don't care about that" when referring to the Constitution, it gives you and the party you represent a bad look. A Republican who doesn't vote for Trump is a bigger hit to the party than a Republican who hates Trump but still votes for him. Take the W's when you can get them. @goldmom not voting for Trump is a pretty big W for the United States in my opinion.
That will still occur, its just republicans are voting at higher rates than their 2020 pace.
I don't think it is possible, but if Trump needs to finish Florida....he got problems
I think FL is going to be a red state for a long time.
I don't think Florida is close, but I could see Texas being much closer than what they anticipate.
I certainly don't dismiss polling numbers but I'm very cautious as to which ones influence my current feeling about the status of matters. Seven days ago, I was pretty pessimistic about Harris' chance of pulling this out. After listening to some data crunchers/election experts, there are actually some trends out there pointing in her direction.
It's going to be close. But, at this particular day/time, I'm now not convinced that Nevada will go red.
And I'm still trying to process exactly what was sought to be achieved by the MSG event. In normal times, I'd think that show was highly indicative of someone who knew he was losing. But these are not normal times.
First off, I don't represent a party. I'm registered as an independent.
Second, in my book anyone the doesn't come out in public against Trump, is Trump supporter. The stakes are too high. I told my stepson that he is draft eligible. Only thing that made his ears pick up.
I’m not sure about that. Also, the GOP demographic has fallen off since the 2016/2020 elections
Harris has a 11-13 point edge in most battleground states with women. It's hard to say how bad this is for Trump.
Dude is clueless. He was in ny yesterday. I'm sure that's in play.
The 2 major prognosticators I follow still saying 55% chance Harris wins and trending up.
Dude hired a racist to tank his chances with Puerto Ricans last night. He's not exactly known for making smart decisions.
Harris will also take most Indies. There simply aren't enough MAGAts to carry the election for him.
Half of the Latinos in Pennsylvania are Puerto Ricans. Trump is the dumbest fvck on the planet.
yeah, there's a bit of that "gnostic secret knowledge" flavor to some posts around here. I guess at least they profess to have secret knowledge rather than just wildly extrapolating from the latest favorable poll.
Only a dipshit would lack the awareness to link me to a Charlie Kirk tweet
Yours is magical thinking. The polls are what they are. You can believe the data, or believe your hopes.
So I'll confess that since I had a 3 hour drive to DC this morning at 0415, I actually listened to this thing (or 90% of it) after my daughter forwarded it. A couple of observations/comments.
1. I'd never actually heard anything Rogan had done before. He's actually a decent interviewer, and I think he's sort of on to something with the "long format". On the plus side, while he let Trump ramble, to his credit, he would always bring him back to the question he originally asked. His weakness/downside, IMO opinion, is that he does subtlely lead the guest to what he wants them to say in many cases. But all in all, I actually kind of liked his format/style for its patience and for the fact that the time constraints did not produce an atmosphere of single combat.
2. One thing I was mildly curious about was what Trump would be 'like' in the setting. What I mean by that is that, for the last 5-6 years, you seldom heard him in any context where he's not just yelling at someone/something as if he were at a campaign rally. In a strange sort of way, and completely setting aside content for a moment, it was sort of refreshing to hear him sort of talking in the tone of normal human being. As I thought about it, I wonder whether -- aside from the obvious demographic element noted in your post -- THAT may have been the real "closing message intent/purpose" of taking three hours to do a podcast the week before election day in one of the closest and most polarized elections in recent history.
3. As to content...well, obviously, a lot of the same content that you get in his campaign screeds (regulation, taxes, IQs, stolen elections), complete with some weird moments consistent with his odd fascinations (Lincoln, RE Lee, windmills driving whales crazy?). Yet, somehow maybe 15-20% more...subdued, maybe 10-15% less ... "binary" (Trump good/Harris bad, worst ever, etc.), maybe 10% fewer insults (except for John Bolton), and not a whole lot on immigration. That's not exactly moving the needle in a material way on the crazy scale, but again, it was strangely noticeable, and I wonder again whether that was the real purpose of this.
How is she doing with men in battleground states? How is she doing with all likely voters in battleground states?
Seems you are pointing to polls when they favor your hopes ("Harris has a 11-13 point edge...") but ignore them when they don't favor your hopes.
I'm referring to data Art. I'll check back with you after the election.
Huey, could you link to that, cause i'm honestly at a bit of a loss about how one would even do that.
Last edited:
You are not referring to data. You are referring to a single poll. The one outlier that is most favorable to Harris. You "believe" it is true and you "believe" all others are false; but you have nothing to go by other than you believe what you believe.
A month ago Nevada was almost certainly going blue. As were Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Now they are all coin tosses. And until an election goes by where the polls don't undercount GOP votes, I am going to assume he will perform at least 1% to 2% better than the polls. Anyone thinking otherwise is engaged in wishful thinking.
As far as MSG; he fired up his base. You guys keep thinking saying stupid things, saying racist things, and saying vile things hurts a candidate. At some point you have to realize that it helps Trump.
Hypothetical question: If Harris were to lose, and it really did mean the "end" of democracy as some suggest, wouldn't that actually be pretty good cause for a civil war?
Does his base need firing up?
Or, does he need to win on the margins?
Who is “you guys?”
Saying things like “Mike Johnson and I are about to spring a surprise” isn’t the comment of someone who knows he’s winning. If anything, it’s the opposite. The “other stuff” doesn’t matter to me … that’s him trying to win the news cycle. The collaborating with Speaker of House is what really perked my ears.
